Climate Change Mitigation: findings and relevant steps of the WGIII Report

Copenhagen, 8 December, 2009 Dr. Youba Sokona

Co-Chair of WGIII and support of TSU WGIII

johnthescone

Global anthropogenic emissions

Global anthropogenic GHG emissions have grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004. Carbon dioxide is the larger contributor.

What Causes CO2 Emissions?3

IPCC 2007 (TS WG III, p. 6)

Stabilisation of GHG Concentrations 4

The lower the stabilization level, the earlier global CO2 emissions have to peak Multigas and CO2 only studies combined

Stabilisation and Equilibrium Global Mean Temperatures

5

• Approaching equilibrium can take several centuries

• Uncertainty of climate sensitivity is important

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Wol

d CO2

Emissi

ons (G

tC)

E: 850-1130 ppm CO2-eq

D: 710-850 ppm CO2-eqC: 590-710 ppm CO2-eqB: 535-590 ppm CO2-eq

A2: 490-535 ppm CO2-eqA1: 445-490 ppm CO2-eq

Stabilization targets: Post-SRES (max)

Post-SRES (min)

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Wol

d CO2

Emissi

ons (G

tC)

E: 850-1130 ppm CO2-eq

D: 710-850 ppm CO2-eqC: 590-710 ppm CO2-eqB: 535-590 ppm CO2-eq

A2: 490-535 ppm CO2-eqA1: 445-490 ppm CO2-eq

Stabilization targets: Post-SRES (max)

Post-SRES (min)

Multigas and CO2 only studies combined

Equi

libriu

m g

loba

l mea

n te

mpe

ratu

rein

crea

se o

ver p

rein

dust

rial(

°C)

GHG concentration stabilization level (ppmv CO2-eq)

Equi

libriu

m g

loba

l mea

n te

mpe

ratu

rein

crea

se o

ver p

rein

dust

rial(

°C)

GHG concentration stabilization level (ppmv CO2-eq)

Technology6

The range of stabilization levels can be achieved by:

• deployment of a portfolio of technologies that are currently available

• those that are expected to be commercialized in coming decades

This assumes that appropriate and effective incentives are in place for development, acquisition, deployment and diffusion of technologies and for addressing related barriers

IPCC 2007, AR4

All Sectors and Regions Have the Potential to Contribute

7

Note: estimates do not include non-technical options, such as lifestyle changes.

Illustrating the Cost of Mitigation8

GDP without mitigation

GDP with stringent mitigation

GDP

Time

80%

current

77%

~1 year

With stringent mitigation GDP growth is only delayed by approximately 1 year

Effective carbon-price signal could realize significant mitigation potential in all sectors

9

• Policies that provide a real or implicit price of carbon could create incentives for producers and consumers to significantly invest in low-GHG products, technologies and processes.

• Such policies could include economic instruments, government funding and regulation

• For stabilization at around 550 ppm CO2eq carbon prices should reach 20-80 US$/tCO2eq by 2030 (5-65 if “induced technological change” happens)

• At these carbon prices large shifts of investments into low carbon technologies can be expected

Development path as important as specific climate mitigation policies

Development path with HIGH

base emissions

Development path with LOW

emissions

Climate policy can have Positive or negative effects

Non-climate policiescan influenceGHG emissions

A multitude of policy instruments are available to Governments

11

Effectiveness of policies depends on national circumstances, their design, interaction, stringency and implementation.

• Integrating climate policies in broader development policies

• Regulations and standards

• Taxes and charges

• Tradable permits

• Financial incentives

• Voluntary agreements

• Information instruments

• Research and development

Infrastructure investments12

• Energy infrastructure investment decisions, (20 trillion US$ till 2030) will have long term impacts on GHG emissions.

• The widespread diffusion of low-carbon technologies may take many decades, even if early investments in these technologies are made attractive.

• Returning global energy-related CO2 emissions to 2005 levels by 2030 would require a large shift in the pattern of investment, although the net additional investment required ranges from negligible to 5-10%

• It is often more cost-effective to invest in end-use energy efficiency improvement than in increasing energy supply

13

R&D investments in energy technologies

Renewable energies could play a key role

Special Report on Renewable Energies

• To be published in late 2010

• To provide a comprehensive, technology specific assessment of the most important renewable energies, discussing both the challenges of integrating these technologies into existing energy systems and estimating associated costs in the context of different climate protection goals

AR5 WG III Outline16

1. Introductory Chapter

2. Integrated Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Response Policies

3. Social, Economic and Ethical Concepts and Methods

4. Sustainable Development and Equity

IV: Assessment of Policies, Institutions and Finance

III: Pathways for Mitigating Climate Change

II: Framing Issues

I: Introduction

5. Drivers, Trends and Mitigation

6. Assessing Transformation Pathways

7. Energy Systems

8. Transport

9. Buildings

10. Industry

11. Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU)

12. Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Spatial Planning

13. International Cooperation: Agreements and Instruments

14. Regional Development and Cooperation

15. National and Sub-national Policies and Institutions

16. Cross-cutting Investment and Finance Issues

AR5 WG III Timeline17

LA1 16 - 20 May 2011LA2 13 - 17 Feb 2012FOD Expert Review 22 Jun - 20 Aug 2012LA3 05 - 09 Nov 2012SOD Exp & Gov't Review 12 Apr - 10 Jun 2013LA4 12-16 Aug 2013Final Gov't Distribution 23 Dec 2013 -17 Feb 2014CLA Preparatory Meeting 4 - 6 Apr 2014WG III Plenary 7-11 Apr 2014

For more informationwww.ipcc.ch

www.ipcc-wg3.de