Climate ChangeMichael Gluck,Regional AnalystOMNR

Presentation Outline

The ProblemThe Reaction

Climate Change Convention Kyoto Protocol

CanadaOntarioMNR

The Greenhouse

Increased "greenhouse gases" are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) naturally occurring gases make up

less than one tenth of one per cent of the total atmosphere

acts like a blanket around the earth

The Problem

A Unique Problem

Climate Change is: global & long-term complex interactions:

climateenvironmenteconomicpoliticalinstitutionalsocialtechnological

The Global Carbon Cycle

Impacts?

Increases floods & droughtsIrreversible damage to human &

natural systems: hydrological agriculture & food security terrestrial, aquatic & marine

ecosystems human health & communities insurance & financial institutions

So What?

Wind and rainfall patterns may change.

Sea-levels may rise and threaten islands and low-lying coastal areas

Climate and agricultural zones may shift towards the poles

More famines and other catastrophesEnvironmental Refugees

Changes in Surface Run-Offfrom 1961-1990 to 2050

CAN WE HANDLE IT?

Scientists see a real risk that the climate will change rapidly and dramatically over the coming decades and centuries.

Likely to be a "global warming" of 1.5 to 4.5 C over the next 100 years

“Greatest Challenge facing the world at the beginning of the century”

Problems?If the consequences of a problem

are uncertain, do you ignore the problem or do you do something about it anyway? Response is expensive, complicated &

politcal Disagreement if problem exists

Not Another Problem!!

War, famine, AIDS, the ozone "hole", acid rain, loss of ecosystems and species ...

See the problem as an opportunity: new technologies & infrastructure more efficient production become healthier

The atmosphere is a shared resource, part of the "global commons".

It’s Not Fair

rich and poor nations of the worldequality a cornerstone of

sustainability

The Convention (1992)United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Recognises that there is a problem negotiated and signed by 165 states

in a little over two years roles for developed & developing

countries stabilize greenhouse gas

concentrations in the atmosphere

Sustainable development

Living the good life

“Somehow, mankind must learn how to alleviate poverty for huge and growing numbers of people without destroying the natural environment”

Developing and sharing environmentally sound technologies and know-how

What is sustainable development?

The Kyoto Protocol (1997)

Strengthens the UNFCCC6% reduction of 1990 levels for

developed countries by 2008-2012

roles for developed & developing countries

And at the last minute… forests?

Achievement

Reductions should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow: ecosystems to adapt naturally to

climate change; to ensure that food production is not

threatened; and, to enable economic development to

proceed in a sustainable manner.

Kyoto Mechanisms

Clean Development Mechanisms sustainable development

Joint Implementation of energy efficient technologies

Emissions Trading between developed countries

MITIGATION

Forests & agriculture… offer significant carbon mitigation potential conservation of existing C pools sequestration by increasing C pools product substitution

There is no single path!

Soil & Trees?

More Carbon in Forests?

Management practices that could reduce or reverse the current emissions of carbon from forests include: halt deforestation expand the area of forests, maintain or increase C stocks in existing forests more efficient harvest & greater use of wood in long-

lasting products substitute wood fuels for fossil fuels

What good is the sink?

Transfer carbon between the atmosphere and the biosphere as an offset to industrial greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments Uncertainty of sink potential Compliance Longevity Seen as an easy way out for Canada,

US & Japan

Canada & the World

Worst energy efficiency in developed world

Lack of political willingness to changeUninformed public A leader??

Canada

4th largest emitters per capita in the world

Why? Inefficient

transportation Consumption Poor infrastructure Subsidized gasoline

Canada’s Emissions

Source: National Climate Change Process Analysis & Modelling Group

14% increase since 1990

People

31% of Canada's GHG emissions produced by individuals and families, 45% from transportation 33% from space heating 7% from water heating 9% from appliances and lighting 6% from waste

HOW MUCH WILL CHANGE COST?

Social learning & innovation institutional change

No-regret policies: phase out market imperfections

subsidies & green accounting

achieve ancillary benefitsreduce pollutants & improve health

provide double dividendgreen taxes

Canada’s National Climate Change Process

1990 commitment to stabilize emissions1993-94 National Consultation

partially implemented weak measures2000 Action Plan

promoting fuel effiency possible underground storage of carbon dioxide reduce greenhouse gas emissions enhance carbon sinks in agriculture and forestry.

Canada’s National Climate Change Process

Nationally: Voluntary Challenge and Registry

Internationally Clean Development Mechanisms

(with CANDU reactors)

Joint Implementation using Canadian Technology

Emissions Trading a cornerstone of reductions strategy

Ontario

Disagreement with Ottawa over Climate Change Action

Smog kills 1,900 people per year in Ontario.ECO says we must do more

Ontario’s Strategy

Clean air actions Clean drive program

Clean energy hydroelectric

energy

EnforcementOpen electricity

marketsFocus on people’s

responsibility

Poor urban planning

100% cuts to public transportation

Conflicting government priorities

Focus on voluntary measures

MNR Action Plan

CommunicationsTree Planting for Private LandsImproving Carbon Sinks in Forest EcosystemsProtect our Forest EcosystemsBalancing the Carbon BooksCo-generation Potential Wetland ConservationFisheries Research

Afforestation Opportunities

Planting trees on marginal agricultural land may provide te best bet for carbon sequestration

What could happen?

What happened in COP-6?

Canada/US & Japan vs. Europe inclusion of sinks risky clean development

mechanisms emission increases developing world left out

COP 6 part II next year

Last words...

Climate change won’t go awayPartial inclusion of biosphere NOT

a solutionLearn more about Canada’s

PoliciesA TEST OF SOCIETY’S

COMMITMENT TO SUSTAINABILITY

Ways & Means for Mitigation

Suggestions

EducationFinancial Incentives - Motivation

FundsEcological tax reformBetter BuildingsGreen Transportation PlansRenewable Energy ProgramBetter landfills

Thanks