CLIMATE CHANGE, ITS IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE AND MITIGATION STRATEGIES

By : Vasudev Meena(IISS, ICAR)

SEMINAR

OUTLINE OF SEMINAR Introduction What is the climate change Climate change trends Impacts of climate change on agriculture Adaptation and mitigation strategies Conclusions

Agriculture represents a core part of the Indian economy and provides food and livelihood activities to much of the Indian population.

The agricultural sector represents 35% of India’s Gross National Product (GNP) and as such plays a crucial role in the country’s development. Food grain production quadrupled during the post-independence era; this growth is projected to continue.

The effect of climate on agriculture is related to variabilities in local climates rather than in global climate patterns.

While the magnitude of climate change impact varies greatly by region.

Climate change is expected to impact on agricultural productivity and shifting crop patterns.

Introduction..

Why Agriculture vulnerable to climate change ?

Highly diverse nature High rainfall dependency (2/3rd area rain dependent) Inadequate infrastructure facilities for supply of quality

inputs Rapid degradation of soil and loss of soil fertility and

nutrient levels Poor resources base of the farmers Poor technology penetration

Climate change ??? According to IPCC (2007) “Climate change refers to a statistically

significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its

Variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or

longer)”

Climate change has adverse impacts on agriculture, hydropower,

forest management and biodiversity

In the long run, the climatic change could affect agriculture in

several ways such as quantity and quality of crops in terms of

productivity, growth rates, photosynthesis and transpiration

rates, moisture availability etc.

Climate change directly affect food production across the globe.

(IPCC, 2007)

The benchmark (400ppm) we crossed recently, made headlines around the world.

But there's actually another number, 450 ppm, that is real cause for alarm among scientists and policy experts.

That's because 450ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere likely would push the world past 2 degrees of warming.

More CO2 =means warmer temperatures

Threats of climate change over the environment

Any amount of global warming is somewhat dangerous, but 2 degrees Celsius of warming (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) is:

when things start to get Earth-changingly bad.

Water is expected to become much more scarce.

A significant percentage of the world's plants and animals will be at risk for extinction.

Coral reefs will be heavily bleached if not gone.

Some island nations could be underwater, or saltwater intrusion from rising seas could make them uninhabitable.

Although there is considerable Uncertainty about future, all climate models indicate a rising trend in temperature

By 2100 a rise of 1.8 to 4°c is Expected

Future climate likely to be warmer

(IPCC, 2007)

Temperature trends

• The year 2009 was the warmest year on record since 1901 (+0.91°C above the normal 26.64°C).

• The other warmer years on the record in order are 2002, 2006, 2003, 2007, 2004, 1998,1941,1999,1958, 2001, 1987 and 2005.

(Kumar, 2009)

(Kumar et al., 2010)

Trends and magnitude of change in annual rainfall (% of mean/100 years)

• Punjab, Haryana,

South East

Peninsular India

and Karnataka

witnessed

increasing trend

• Chhattisgarh,

Vidarbha and East

MP experienced a

decreasing trend

Trends and magnitude of changes in annual rainfall (% of mean/100 years) for different

regions

(Kumar et al., 2010)

• West Central

India shows a

decreasing trend

• Peninsular India

witnessed an

increasing trend

Climate during recent past in India

Year Rainfall departure (%)2000 -112001 -152002 -192003 +22004 -132005 -12006 0.72007 12008 -22009 -232010 +22011 +12012 -8Extreme Events

2002 drought, 27 days heat wave during May - June 2003 in Andhra Pradesh Floods in 2005, Cold wave in 2005–06 Floods in arid Rajasthan & AP and drought in NE regions in 2006 Heavy rainfall (944 mm) in Mumbai in 2006 High temperature during rabi 2008-09 in major parts of the India Cloud burst in Ladakh and drought like situation in NE region in 2010 2012 – Drought in Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat and Karnataka. Neelam cyclone, AP floods

Incidences of natural calamities due to climate

change

Kashmir flood (2014)

Latur Earthquake (1993)

The Indian Ocean Tsunami (2004)

Uttarakhand Flash Floods (2013)

Extreme Events

Nepal Earthquake (2015)

Odisha Super-cyclone 2013

Land slides in Male, Pune (2014)

Retreat of the Gangotri glacier snout during the last 220 years (from 1780 AD to 2001) (ICIMOD, 2007)

•The position of the Gangotri glacier snout retreated about 2 km in the period from 1780 AD to 2001

• Glacial melt would lead to increased summer river flow and floods

over the next few decades, followed by a serious reduction in flows thereafter

Year/ Scenarios

Season Temperature change (0C) Rainfall Change (%)

Lowest Highest Lowest Highest

2020s Annual Rabi Kharif

1.01.080.87

1.411.541.17

2.161.95-1.81

5.974.365.10

2050s Annual Rabi Kharif

2.232.541.81

2.873.182.37

5.36-9.927.18

9.343.8210.52

2080s Annual Rabi Kharif

3.534.142.91

5.556.314.62

7.48-24.8310.10

9.90-4.5015.18

Climate Change Projections for India

(Lal et al., 2001)

Impact of climate change on agriculture

Impact of droughts on Indian food grains production from 1950-51 to 2007-’08

(Rao et al., 2008)

Crop % loss of normal yield

Sorghum 43.03

Maize 14.09

Tur 28.23

Groundnut 34.09

Wheat 48.68

Onian 29.56

Cotton 59.96

Effect of drought on rainfed crop yield in Dharwad district

Asha Latha et al., (2012)

Deviation of minimum temperature from normal at Hisar and Jabalpur during 2005-06

Normal Temperature

Sinha and Swaminathan (1991) – showed that an increase of 2oC in temperature could decrease the rice yield by about 0.75 ton/ha in the high yield areas; and a 0.5oC increase in winter temperature would reduce wheat yield by 0.45 ton/ha.

Saseendran et al. (2000) – showed that for every one degree rise in temperature the decline in rice yield would be about 6%.

Aggarwal et al. (2002) – on basis of recent climate change scenarios estimated impacts on wheat and other cereal crops.

Crop Potential** grain yield

kg ha‐1

CO2 effect on yield

Rainfall effect on

yield

Temperature effect on

yield

CC* effect on yield

Sorghum 2753 n/a ‐6% ‐16% ‐22%

Maize 2125 n/a ‐8% ‐16% ‐25%

Groundnut 1979 +8% ‐7% ‐31% ‐30%

Pigeonpea 1230 +6% ‐7% ‐3% ‐8%

• Climate change – combined effects of increased temperature and reduced rainfall, and increased CO2 in the case of groundnut and pigeonpea, and of increased temperature and rainfall in the case of sorghum and maize

** Potential yield of the current rainfall, CO2, temperature and radiation environment averaged over 50 seasons, with no nutrient, pest or disease constraints

Impact of climate change on average potential grain yield of sorghum, maize, groundnut and pigeon pea

(Dimes et al., 2008)

crop

Baseline Climate Change

Total biomass (kg ha‐1)

Duration (d)

In‐crop rain

(mm)

WUE* (kg ha‐1

mm‐1)

Total biomass (kg ha‐1)

Duration (d)

In‐crop rain

(mm)

WUE* (kg ha‐1

mm‐1)

Sorghum 6398 107 396 6.7 4663 (27%) 88 320 6.7

Maize 6403 129 433 4.3 4747

(26 %)107 352 3.9

Groundnut 4628 122 416 4.5 3782

(18 %)106 345 3.8

Pigeon pea 4445 165 463 2.3

4288 (3.5 %)

136 397 2.4

(Dimes et al., 2008)

*WUE was calculated as kg of grain / (soil water at sowing – soil water at harvest + in‐crop rainfall)

Impact of the climate change on sorghum, maize, groundnut and pigeon pea

Effect of elevated temperature on yield attributes of groundnut crop

(NPCC, 2010)

Impact of climate change on mustard yield

(Boomiraj et al., 2010)

Impact of climate change on length of growing period

• Area under 150-180

days LGP will reduce

in the country in the

projected climate

change scenarios

• LGP rainfed areas is

likely to reduce,

especially in

peninsular regions

and south India

(NPCC, 2008)

Effect of Climate change on apple production

Declining apple yields in H.P. due to inadequate chilling

(NPCC, 2004-07)

• Apple belt has moved 30 Kms upwards [northwards] over the last 50 years • The new areas of apple cultivation have appeared in Lahaul and Spitti and

upper reaches of Kinnaur district of H.P.• The total area under apple state have fallen from 92,820 ha in 2001-02 to

86,202 ha in 2004-05. • Avg. state productivity decreased from 7.06 t ha-1 in 1980-81 to 4.65 t ha-1

in 2004-05.

Impact of climate change on milk production

• Milk yield will reduce by 10-30% in first lactation and 5-20% in

second and third lactation periods in cattle and buffaloes• Temperature rise of 2- 6 °C will negatively affect growth, puberty,

maturity, reproduction of crossbreed cows and buffaloes• Increased water, shelter and energy requirement for livestock• Loss of 1.6 million tones in milk production by 2020 and 15 million

tones by 2050 (NPCC, 2004-07 and NPCC, 2008)

• Heat wave in 2003 in Andhra Pradesh- Severest and longest• 20 lakhs birds were died in May & June 2003 (Total loss 27 Crores)• Highest in E. Godavari-7 lakhs, W. Godavari – 5 lakhs• Egg production decreased in the state by 25%

Heat Wave - Silent killer to Poultry birds

(The Hindu, 2005 and NPCC, 2010)

Mortality due to heat stress caused by high ambient temperature

Massive poultry birds killing

Adaptation and mitigation strategies

1. Genetics & Breeding and Biotechnology

2. Conservation Agriculture

3. Watershed management 4. Improved Agronomic Practices

Adaptation options Altered agronomy of crops

Altering dates of planting &

spacing Alternate crops or cultivars Change in cropping system

Conservation agriculture Zero tillage/direct seeding Reduction in summer fallow Conservation of soil moisture Crop diversification Forage in rotations

Integrated farming systemIntegrated nutrient managementImproved land use & NRM policiesRisk management- early warning

systems and crop insurances

Mitigation options Afforestation Watershed management Organic agriculture Changing land use- Horticulture,

Agroforestry, Silviculture Integrated farming systemUse of nitrification inhibitors and

fertilizers placement practices Improved management of livestock

population Feed and fodder bank Solar power

1. Genetics & Breeding and Biotechnology Conversion of C3 plants to C4 plants Transfer of gene from legume to non-legume crops Need to develop extreme conditions (heat, drought, flood)

tolerant crops and cultivars Develop climate ready crops (defining new Ideotypes) Need to develop new breeds (or poultry birds)- tolerant to harsh

conditions (Cold/ heat waves) Selection and breeding of high yielding rice cultivars with low

methane emission potential Breeding for new animals breeds – less methane emission Transgenic development for biotic and abiotic stress

2. Conservation Agriculture

Treatments Seed yield (Kg ha-1) Straw yield (Kg ha-1)

TillageMinimum tillage

921 2306

Reduced tillage 969 2355

Conventional tillage

948 2383

MulchingNo mulch 835 1941

Rice straw mulch

1089 2518

Water hyacinth mulch

998 2237

Black polythene mulch

1164 2697

(Mondal et al., 2008)

Effect of tillage and mulching on Seed and straw yield of mustard

Effect of tillage and legume mulching on productivity of wheat

Treatment Grain yield (t ha-1)

TillageConventional 2.48Minimum 2.40CD (P=0.05) NSLegume mulchingControl 2.11Sunhemp (S) 2.46Leucaena (L) 2.45Sunhemp + Leucaena 2.68

(Sharma et al., 2010)

Product Pre-project

(1974-75)

During project

(1975-86)

Runoff (%) 60 46

Soil loss

(t ha-1 annum-1)

11 4.5

Dependency on

forest cover (%)

60 46

Animal rearing

method

Heavily grazing Partially grazing

(Tripathi and Sharda, 2011)

Protection impacts of watershed management programme at Fakot

3. Watershed management

Effect of watershed management on drought moderation

(Tripathi and Sharda, 2011)

Product Pre-project(1974-75)

During project (1975-86)

Food crops (t) 88.2 584.3

Fruit (t) Neg. 196.2

Milk (‘000 l) 56.6 237.6

income from floriculture (‘000 Rs.)

Nil 120.0

Income from sale of cash crops (‘000 Rs.)

6.5 202.5

(Tripathi and Sharda, 2011)

Production impacts of watershed management programme at Fakot

* Community diversified into floriculture in 1994

4. Improved Agronomic Practices

There are several adaptation measures that the agricultural sector can undertake to cope with future climate change.

These include:– Changing planting dates– Planting different varieties or crop species– Development and promotion of alternative crops– Developing new drought and heat-resistant varieties– Improved crop residue and weed management– More use of water harvesting techniques– Better pest and disease control for crops– Implementing new or improving existing irrigation systems(Reducing water leakage, soil moisture conservation - mulching)

Crops Drought Flood/ watersubmergence

Salt tolerant

Rice Sahbhagi DhanShusk Samrat

Swarna-sub 1BhuthnathScuba rice

IR 72076,Usar Dhan-3

Wheat HT1531, HD2888 - -

Sorghum M 35-1, selection-3 - -

Pearlmillet HHB 216 - -

Gram BGD 128 - -

Mustard - - -

Groundnut Jun 27, PBS 11058, Girnar 3,BAU-19

- -

Cultivars tolerant to extreme conditions

(ICAR Annual report, 2010-11 and STRASA, 2011)

Several farming practices and technologies can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and prevent climate change by enhancing carbon storage in soils;

Preserving existing soil carbon; and reducing carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions.

Reducing use of fertilisers: By applying only the amount of fertiliser that the crop needs, precisely and at the right time, a tremendous amount of greenhouse gas releases can be prevented.

At the same time, it would also reduce other environmental disasters such as dangerous algal blooms in our lakes and oceans worldwide.

Protecting the soil: By increasing the carbon content through a variety of measures such as cover crops, agricultural soils can be turned into carbon sinks and can greatly reduce agriculture’s contribution to climate change.

Land restoration and land use changes: Modifications to grazing practices, such as implementing rotational grazing and seasonal use of rangelands. Converting marginal cropland to trees or grass maximizes carbon storage.

Methane should be used: Methane can be used to fuel a variety of on-farm applications, as well as to generate electricity.

Land use system C Sequestered /unit quantity of biomass (kg kg-1)

Carbon sequestration(t ha-1 yr-1)

Albizia lebbeck (Agrisilviculture)

0.458 2.98

Acacia nilotica (Silvipasture)

0.409 0.69

Tamarindus indica (Agri-silvi-horti system)

0.393 0.44

Luecaena leucocephala

0.445 7.00

Acacia albida 0.438 0.85

Azadirachta indica 0.418 0.80

Carbon sequestration under different land use systems

(Reddy et al., 2009)

Treatment Grain yield(t ha-1)

Straw yield(t ha-1)

Nitrogen-useefficiency (%)

Organic C (%)

Control 4.16 4.59 1.95U 60 5.35 5.98 19.97 2.10

V 60 4.63 5.00 7.88 2.23

U 40 + V 20 5.19 5.5 17.17 2.25U 20 + V 40 4.91 5.45 12.50 2.27Azolla 4.61 5.0 2.22U 60 +Azolla 5.70 6.24 25.75 2.30

V 60 + Azolla 4.74 5.18 9.75 2.33

U 40 + V 20 + Azolla

5.45 6.01 21.52 2.29

U 20 + V 40 +Azolla

4.98 5.50 13.6 2.28

Biomass yield, organic C and nitrogen-use efficiency of rice under different N sources and their integration with Azolla and vermicompost

(Singh et al., 2005)

Yield and water use in mustard as influence by sowing date and aqua-fertilization under rainfed conditions

Treatment Yield (t ha-1) Consumptive use (mm)

WUE(kg ha-1 mm-1)

Sowing date25th October 1.98 220.4 8.695th November 1.69 212.3 7.80CD (P=0.05) 0.06Aqua-fertilization (water, litres ha-1)Control 1.68 207.5 8.095000 1.78 215.4 8.1010000 1.81 221.4 8.1215000 1.94 224.3 8.55CD (P=0.05) 0.08

(IARI annual report, 2009)

Grain yield of sorghum+ pigeonpea as influence by different conservation measures

Treatment Grain yield (t ha-1)

Sorghum Pigeonpea S E YControl 2.74 0.039 3.20Ridge and furrow 3.53 0.077 3.87Conservation furrow(0.9m) 3.07 0.120 3.47Bed furrow (0.9 m) 3.20 0.054 3.38Conservation furrow(1.35m) 3.19 0.056 3.37Bed furrow (1.35m) 3.22 0.060 3.40SEm+ 0.14 0.009 -CD (P=0.05) 0.40 0.021 -

(Reddy et al., 2010)

System Gross return(Rs/ha)

Expenditure(Rs/ha)

Net income(Rs/ha)

Employment(M.D./ha/yr

Crop+ dairy+ Poultry+Mushroom

203044 84682 118362 154

Crop cultivation only 101742 26202 75540 64

Additional benefit 101302 58480 42822 90

Integrated farming system

(Sharma et al., 2007)

5. SHELTERBELT & ROADSIDE PLANTATION Reduces wind speed by 20-30%

Wind erosion by 50%

Conserves soil moisture & nutrients

Pearl millet yield 6.8 q ha-1 in shelterbelt & 4.8 q ha-1 in without shelterbelt

Azadirachta indica – Acacia tortilis

Feed and Fodder Bank for Drought Mitigation Arid zone faces fodder scarcity, poor quality & high transportation costThe Feed Block Machine helps reducing volume to one-thirdFeed block (20x20x5 cm ) are made out of crop residues, concentrates, minerals

6. Livestock Management

Animal Feed Solar Cooker

Widely adopted in more than 500 villages of western Rajasthan

Conclusions:

Climate change is a reality

Agriculture is likely to suffer losses in long run due to heat waves, drought, unusual rainfall and other weather anomalies

Adaptation strategies can help to minimize negative impacts to some extent where as mitigation options can help in long run, but

There are ‘n’ number of solutions need to be standardized in the coming years

These need research and policy support