Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and

Implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”

P. Ericksen, J. de Leeuw, P. Thornton, A. Ayantunde, M. Said, M. Herrero and A. Notenbaert

THE FUTURE OF PASTORALISM IN AFRICAInternational conference to debate research findings and policy options, Addis Ababa, 21-23 March 2011

Pastoralists and climate risk

Oromiya Region, Ethiopia by Andrew Heavens

Current climate variability

Figure 1: Variation of monthly (blue) and 12 month running average (red) of NDVI for Kajiado district from 1982 to end of 2009. Source: unpublished ILRI analysis.

Climate variability, Niger

Vegetation biomass and livestock mortality

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Jan-82

Jan-84

Jan-86

Jan-88

Jan-90

Jan-92

Jan-94

Jan-96

Jan-98

Jan-00

Jan-02

Jan-04

Jan-06

Jan-08

ND

VI

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

TLU

per

sq

km

Biomass and NDVI, Kajiado, Kenya

Biomass and NDVI, Laikipia, Kenya

Management strategies for climate risk

PHOTO HERE of Ndulenge

Climate Change

Image of the Future

Image of the Future

Region Jun-Aug Dec-Jan

Sahara Small decrease(5-20%)

Inconsistent

West Africa Inconsistent Inconsistent

East Africa Small increase (5-20%) Inconsistent

Southern Africa Inconsistent Large decrease (>20%)

GCM consistency in regional precipitation projections for 2090-2099 (SRES A1B). IPCC, 2007

Coefficient of variation (%) of the change in length of growing period for an ensemble of 14 GCMs

Climate change exposure: changes in rain per rainfall event

Ericksen et al, 2011

Unpublished IRLI analysis

Doherty et al 2009

East Africa:Simulated plant funtional types:

(top) 20th century

(bottom) 20th and 21st centuries (one climate model)

Implications for herds, livelihoods

Photo: P. Little 2011

Thank you…