Climate Change in Climate Change in Developing CountriesDeveloping Countries

Introduction Introduction

Climate change impacts all earthClimate change impacts all earth Least developed countries are poorestLeast developed countries are poorest

Hard for countries to adaptHard for countries to adapt

Climate change-lead to droughts & less Climate change-lead to droughts & less water resources, floods, disease, loss of water resources, floods, disease, loss of food sourcesfood sources

What is Weather?What is Weather?

State of atmosphere at State of atmosphere at some place & time some place & time described by quantitative described by quantitative variables :variables : temperature, temperature, humidity, humidity, cloudiness, precipitation, cloudiness, precipitation, wind speed and directionwind speed and direction

Place & time must be Place & time must be designated eg New York designated eg New York & Phoenix at noon.& Phoenix at noon.

France, 2007

NY Times

Kansas

Arizona,2000; NASALA, Dec ’07, LA Times

Los Angeles River 2003 rain season

Griffith Park

New Orleans Interstate 10

17th Street Levee Breach Lakeview

Richard J. Pasch -NHC

Katrina & Destructive WeatherKatrina & Destructive Weather

Devastated New Orleans because:Devastated New Orleans because: Strength of HurricaneStrength of Hurricane New Orleans = populated coastal area in path of New Orleans = populated coastal area in path of

hurricanehurricane New Orleans below sea level because of sinking New Orleans below sea level because of sinking

Mississippi River sedimentsMississippi River sediments Must build levees along river to confine it.Must build levees along river to confine it. Some levees not stableSome levees not stable New Orleans had poor evacuation planNew Orleans had poor evacuation plan

Many developing nations along coast and in Many developing nations along coast and in path of hurricanespath of hurricanes

2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON STATISTICS2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON STATISTICS

NAMENAME DATESDATESMIN. MIN.

PRESS PRESS (MB)(MB)

MAX. MAX. WINDS WINDS (MPH)(MPH)

DIRECTDIRECT

DEATHSDEATHS

U.S. U.S. DAMAGE DAMAGE ($ million)($ million)

TS ARLENETS ARLENE 8 - 13 JUN8 - 13 JUN 989989 7070 11 minor minor

TS BRETTS BRET 28 - 30 JUN28 - 30 JUN 1002 1002 4040 11

H CINDYH CINDY 3 - 7 JUL3 - 7 JUL 991991 7575 11 320320

H DENNISH DENNIS 4 - 13 JUL4 - 13 JUL 930930 150 (4)150 (4) 4242 22302230

H EMILYH EMILY 11 - 21 JUL11 - 21 JUL 929929 160 (5)160 (5) 66 minorminor

TS FRANKLINTS FRANKLIN 21 - 29 JUL21 - 29 JUL 997997 7070

TS GERTTS GERT 23 - 25 JUL23 - 25 JUL 10051005 4545

TS HARVEYTS HARVEY 2 - 8 AUG2 - 8 AUG 994994 6565

H IRENEH IRENE 4 - 18 AUG4 - 18 AUG 970970 105 (2)105 (2)

TS JOSETS JOSE 22 - 23 AUG22 - 23 AUG 998998 6060 66

H KATRINAH KATRINA 23 - 30 AUG23 - 30 AUG 902902 175 (5)175 (5) 12001200 7500075000

TS LEETS LEE 28 AUG - 2 SEP28 AUG - 2 SEP 10061006 4040

H MARIAH MARIA 1 - 10 SEP1 - 10 SEP 962962 115 (3)115 (3)

H NATEH NATE 5 - 10 SEP5 - 10 SEP 979979 90 (1)90 (1)

New Orleans Interstate 10

17th Street Levee Breach Lakeview

Richard J. Pasch -NHC

Orleans Parish

Orleans Parish

Orleans Parish

St Rita’s Nursing Home, St Bernard Parish

Richard J. Pasch -NHC

What is Climate?What is Climate?

Weather conditions at some locality Weather conditions at some locality averaged over specified time periodaveraged over specified time period

International convention is average values International convention is average values of climatic elements (e.g. rainfall, of climatic elements (e.g. rainfall, temperatures, snowfall) over past 30 yearstemperatures, snowfall) over past 30 years

Climatology is study of climateClimatology is study of climate

Factors that influence climateFactors that influence climate

LatitudeLatitude ElevationElevation

Higher = cooler, lower warmerHigher = cooler, lower warmer TopographyTopography

Mountains, wet on one side, dry on otherMountains, wet on one side, dry on other Proximity to waterProximity to water

Oceans result in cooler coastal temperaturesOceans result in cooler coastal temperatures Ocean circulationOcean circulation

Transport heatTransport heat Air CirculationAir Circulation

Climate Changes With Distance From EquatorClimate Changes With Distance From Equator

Places at high latitudes (far from the equator) receive less sunlight than places at low latitudes (close to the equator). Amount of sunlight Places at high latitudes (far from the equator) receive less sunlight than places at low latitudes (close to the equator). Amount of sunlight and precipitation affects types of plants and animals that live in a place. Listed below are the types of ecosystems that exist in different and precipitation affects types of plants and animals that live in a place. Listed below are the types of ecosystems that exist in different climates The types of ecosystems that develop in this warm environment are:climates The types of ecosystems that develop in this warm environment are:

Rainforests: Rainforests receive a lot of rain. Temperature stays warm in the rainforest all year long. Rainforests: Rainforests receive a lot of rain. Temperature stays warm in the rainforest all year long. Savanna: This ecosystem has a wet season and a very dry season. Savanna: This ecosystem has a wet season and a very dry season. Deserts: Deserts receive less rainfall than other tropical ecosystems but are just as warm. Deserts: Deserts receive less rainfall than other tropical ecosystems but are just as warm. Chaparrel: This ecosystem has wet-winters and dry-summers. Chaparrel: This ecosystem has wet-winters and dry-summers. Grasslands: This ecosystem is typically found on the dry interior of continents. Grasslands: This ecosystem is typically found on the dry interior of continents. Temperate forest: A moist climate allows leafy deciduous trees to thrive. Temperate forest: A moist climate allows leafy deciduous trees to thrive. High latitudes receive the least sunlight, creating cold climates.High latitudes receive the least sunlight, creating cold climates. Taiga: The forests of the taiga ecosystem survive despite long and very cold winters. Summers are short and still quite cool. Taiga: The forests of the taiga ecosystem survive despite long and very cold winters. Summers are short and still quite cool. Tundra: Ocean winds in arctic coastal areas keep the temperatures from being as severe as interior regions. A long, chilly winter season Tundra: Ocean winds in arctic coastal areas keep the temperatures from being as severe as interior regions. A long, chilly winter season

is followed by a mild season.is followed by a mild season.

What is Climate Change?What is Climate Change?

Climate of Earth always changing. Climate of Earth always changing. ““Climate change” generally refers Climate change” generally refers

to changes in climate identified to changes in climate identified since the early part of the 1900's. since the early part of the 1900's. Changes thought to be mostly Changes thought to be mostly

from human behavior than from from human behavior than from natural changes in the natural changes in the atmosphere.atmosphere.

Greenhouse effect important-- Greenhouse effect important-- relates to gases which keep Earth relates to gases which keep Earth warm. Extra greenhouse gases warm. Extra greenhouse gases which humans have released which humans have released thought to pose strongest threat.thought to pose strongest threat.

Figure SPM.4Figure SPM.4

Models show humans responsible for most climate Models show humans responsible for most climate changechange

http://www.ipcc.ch/

Not all parts of earth Not all parts of earth warmingwarming

Some coolingSome cooling Some areas will see Some areas will see

droughtsdroughts Others, more rainOthers, more rain

Changes in temperature are unevenly distributed

Degrees C

Trends for 1950-98

(http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/)

Meteorological Service of CanadaMeteorological Service of Canada

Sea Ice

Greenland sunset © Christian MorelGreenland sunset © Christian Morel

(http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/)

© RADM Harley D. Nygren/Department of Commerce

Arctic Ocean sea ice is becoming less Extensive Meteorological Service of CanadaMeteorological Service of Canada

GlaciersGlaciers

Copyright: Hans Oerter/Alfred-Wegener-Institut

Length of GlaciersLength of Glaciers

Global mean combined land/ocean temperature, including error margin

Source: IPCC(2001)

Meteorological Service of CanadaMeteorological Service of Canada

AnomalyAnomaly Departure from some Departure from some

range of measurementsrange of measurements Example Temperature Example Temperature

Anomaly:Anomaly: Range 1961-1990Range 1961-1990 If range average = 20 CIf range average = 20 C & measurement = 20.5 C& measurement = 20.5 C Then anomoaly is 0.5 CThen anomoaly is 0.5 C

Change in Global TemperaturesChange in Global Temperatures

Global Temp increase 0.74 C (book) 1.3FGlobal Temp increase 0.74 C (book) 1.3F 13.7 C -1905; 14.4 -200513.7 C -1905; 14.4 -2005 17.5-20 C ice caps melt17.5-20 C ice caps melt ooF= 1.8 * F= 1.8 * ooC + 32C + 32

Change in Annual TemperatureChange in Annual Temperature2035-20602035-2060

DroughtsDroughts

M. Hoerling andJ. EischeidNOAA(SouthwestHydrology, 2007

Recent California FiresRecent California Fires

NASA/MODIS

July ‘08Summer ’07

NASA Images

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

MS

L (

mm

)

Year

Seal Level Change--Tide Gauge Seal Level Change--Tide Gauge ObservationsObservations

Average Rate ~ 1.8 mm/year

0.8 mm/year

2.0 mm/year

3.2 mm/year

[Church and White, 2006]

~ 8 inches(20 cm)

= 16,000 cubic miles!!!

= 54 billion acre feet!!!!!!!

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001: 21st century warming may be enough to melt the Greenland Ice Sheet>21 feet sea level

Climate Change ImpactsClimate Change Impacts

Loss of Animal HabitatLoss of Animal Habitat

Los Angeles Civic Center (USC Campus)Average Annual Temperature (1878-2008)

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

1878

1882

1886

1890

1894

1898

1902

1906

1910

1914

1918

1922

1926

1930

1934

1938

1942

1946

1950

1954

1958

1962

1966

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

2002

2006

Year

Deg

rees

F

TEMP

10 Year Avg

Linear (TEMP)

'97'83

'07'31

'59

'44'75

'94

'85

Bill Patzert/JPL Data: NOAA NWS (Los Angeles/Oxnard)

LA's HEATING UP!!

Hot Air = Bad Air

What are Developing CountriesWhat are Developing Countries

Developing countriesDeveloping countries – all countries and territories in Africa; all countries in the – all countries and territories in Africa; all countries in the Americas except the US, Canada, Bahamas, Bermuda, Cayman Islands and Falkland Americas except the US, Canada, Bahamas, Bermuda, Cayman Islands and Falkland Islands; all countries in Asia and the Middle East except Japan, Brunei, Hong Kong, Islands; all countries in Asia and the Middle East except Japan, Brunei, Hong Kong, Israel, Kuwait, Qatar, Singapore, Taiwan and United Arab Emirates; all countries in the Israel, Kuwait, Qatar, Singapore, Taiwan and United Arab Emirates; all countries in the Pacific apart from Australia and New Zealand; plus the European states of Albania, Pacific apart from Australia and New Zealand; plus the European states of Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Gibraltar, Malta, Moldova, Turkey and ex-Yugoslavia. Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Gibraltar, Malta, Moldova, Turkey and ex-Yugoslavia.

http://www.globalhumanitarianassistance.org/a-h.htm

Climate change impacts in developing Climate change impacts in developing countriescountries

Environmental Impacts

Changes in rainfall patternsChanges in rainfall patterns Increased frequency and severity Increased frequency and severity

of: Floodsof: Floods DroughtsDroughts StormsStorms Heat wavesHeat waves Changes in growing seasonsChanges in growing seasons Changes in water quality and Changes in water quality and

quantityquantity Sea level riseSea level rise Glacial meltGlacial melt

Socio-economic resources and sectors affected

Water resourcesWater resources Agriculture and forestryAgriculture and forestry Food securityFood security Human healthHuman health Infrastructure (e.g. transport)Infrastructure (e.g. transport) Settlements: displacement ofSettlements: displacement of

inhabitants and loss of livelihoodinhabitants and loss of livelihood Coastal managementCoastal management Industry and energyIndustry and energy Disaster response and recovery Disaster response and recovery

plansplans

Vulnerability of developing countries to Vulnerability of developing countries to climate changeclimate change

Areas in tropical and sub-tropical regions most seriously affected : Africa, Areas in tropical and sub-tropical regions most seriously affected : Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Small Island States (e.g Mauritius)Asia, Latin America and the Small Island States (e.g Mauritius)Poverty exacerbates, and is exacerbated by, the impacts of Poverty exacerbates, and is exacerbated by, the impacts of environmental change:environmental change: Between 1990 and 1998, 97% of natural disaster-related deaths occurred in Between 1990 and 1998, 97% of natural disaster-related deaths occurred in

developing countries. 90% of all natural disasters are climate, weather and water developing countries. 90% of all natural disasters are climate, weather and water related.related.

Livelihoods are highly dependent on climate-sensitive resources:Livelihoods are highly dependent on climate-sensitive resources: Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa, of which up to 90% is rain-fed, accounts for Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa, of which up to 90% is rain-fed, accounts for

70% of regional employment and 35% of gross national product.70% of regional employment and 35% of gross national product.Low adaptive capacity: Low adaptive capacity: Poorest inhabitants of developing countries, struggle to cope with current Poorest inhabitants of developing countries, struggle to cope with current

extreme weather events and climate variability.extreme weather events and climate variability.Those dependent on natural resourcesThose dependent on natural resources: : Especially subsistence farmers dependent on rain-fed crops.Especially subsistence farmers dependent on rain-fed crops.

Shanty town dwellersShanty town dwellers: : Living on unsuitable land, often unstable and/or flood prone and lacking Living on unsuitable land, often unstable and/or flood prone and lacking

infrastructure.infrastructure.Those living in extreme povertyThose living in extreme poverty: UN estimate that 1.3 billion people live : UN estimate that 1.3 billion people live on less than $1 per day.on less than $1 per day.