CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN VIETNAM:POTENTIAL FOR AGRICULTURAL MITIGATION

Claudia RinglerInternational Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Washington, DC

Hanoi, May 3, 2010

POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS

2

• Vietnam is expected to be particularly hard hit by climate change – due to its tropical location, long coastal line, and mega deltas

• Climate change impacts on agriculture are channeled through changes in (inter-annual and intra-annual) precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO2concentration, and sea level rise (inundation and salinity intrusion)

• Climate impacts affect hydrology, runoff, and thus water availability for irrigation and other uses

• Adverse impacts of climate change can affect economic growth, poverty and malnutrition

SELECTION OF CLIMATE SCENARIOS:Moisture Index for GCM Climate Projection in 2050

Drier Wetter

CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

Average Clim

ate Moisture Index

Driest scenario: IPSL-CM4; wettest scenario: GISS-ER MONRE scenario is the Vietnamese government official climate change

scenario for A2 Sea level rise scenario: 17 cm by 2030, 30 cm by 2050 2030 (2016-45); 2050 (2036-2065)

CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOSMean Annual Temperature Changes by AEZ (oC)

Mean Annual Precipitation Changes by AEZ (%)

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Red River Basin - 2030

IPSL

GISS

MONRE

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Red River Basin - 2050

IPSL

GISS

MONRE

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mekong Delta Inflow Changes - 2030

IPSL

GISS

HadCM3

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mekong Delta Inflow Changes - 2050

IPSL

GISS

HadCM3

Red River Basin: Decreased wet-season flow under IPSL, increased dry season flow under GISS and MONRE

Mekong Delta: Major flow reduction under IPSL

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS% Basin Runoff Changes

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTSCrop Production Changes (%)

IAE 2009

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS

o Without CO2 fertilization, production declines for all crops and scenarios studied; with CO2fertilization, MONRE scenario has production increases for all crops, while production of IPSL and GISS decline

o Without CO2 fertilization, rice production losses range from 2.1 to 6.4 million ton per year in 2030, and 3.4 to 6.7 million ton in 2050

o Sea level rise along can cause about 2.7 million ton rice production loss in 2050, in the Mekong Delta

KEY ADAPTATION METHODS

o Irrigation expansion and water savings in rice and other crops

o Increased investment in agricultural research

o Change of planting dates/crop varieties

o Enhanced soil fertility management

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATIONAg. Research & Extension

Still room for increase in agricultural productivity

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

22019

95

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Rice

Maize

Cassava

Coffee

Sweet potato

Soybean

Yield Index (Historical Yield Growth)

OTHER ADAPTATION OPTIONSShifting Planting Dates

Winter-spring Rice Planting Area in Red River Delta

IFAD-IFPRI PARTNERSHIP ON CLIMATE CHANGEMITIGATION ACTIVITIES AND SMALL FARMERS

Objective: connect small farmers with markets that reward climate change mitigation practices

Four countries: Morocco, Ghana, Mozambique, Vietnam

Our objective is to do for agriculture what people have successfully done for forestry: several projects are already receiving money from both regulated and voluntary markets

CHALLENGES

Lack of previous experience (exception Kenya)

“Technical” uncertainties:o amount of carbon that can be sequestered

o best methods to store it in the ground

o length of time it can be stored

Workable solutions are needed to attract investors

RESEARCH ACTIVITIES

Activity 1: Current carbon market activitiesReview and assessment of current activities related to carbon markets in the country. Forestry mitigation and adaptation that contribute to mitigation will be included, but will not be the focus.

Activity 2: Review and analysis of institutional structuresAssess current policies and institutions affecting access of the rural poor to carbon markets. Institutions will include the potential of various supply chains, producers of high value export crops, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and farmer organizations as aggregators and disseminators of management system changes and measurement technologies

RESEARCH ACTIVITIES

Activity 3: Assessment of climate change mitigation potentialThe third activity focuses on quantifying the mitigation potential. Agricultural mitigation potential will be quantified by agricultural sub-sector, location, and mitigation activity (including both reduction of emissions and carbon sequestration) regardless of costs and benefits.

Activity 4: Cost-benefit analysis of mitigation alternativesActivity 3 will be followed by an estimation of costs and benefits of the various mitigation activities. High -impact areas will be identified combining high mitigation potential with high poverty.

RESEARCH ACTIVITIES Activity 5: Pilot study

A pilot study for testing agricultural mitigation activities and testing of Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) techniques on the ground will be initiated in 2010. The field case study will include: consultations with officials and farmers at local case study sites, the implementation of a carbon baseline inventory of the study site, the development of technical factors relating agricultural activities with carbon savings, the testing of MRV, and the training of individuals for assessment and reporting

The climate change component will also continue to provide technical assistance to the activities of Capacity Strengthening and Knowledge Management throughout 2010. Outreach materials will be prepared in 2011