climate change, hurricane sandy, and impacts on coastal new jersey - dr. kennish
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Climate Change, Hurricane Sandy, and Impacts on Coastal New JerseyMichael J. KennishInstitute of Marine and Coastal SciencesRutgers UniversityPowerpoint presentation for NJ Environmental Federation's 27th Annual Conference, Stand Up for New Jersey: Fighting for Clean Water, Air & Communities, Saturday, April 6, 2013 at Georgian Court UniversityTRANSCRIPT
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Climate Change, Hurricane Sandy, and Impacts on Coastal New Jersey
Michael J. KennishInstitute of Marine and Coastal SciencesRutgers University
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Coastal NJ
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Marsh edge transfer
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Coastal DamageStorm Surge (Hybrid)FloodingBeach/Dune LossInfrastructure DamageBack-Bay FloodingBack-Bay Filling
Shoreline ErosionSea-Level Rise
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Low Elevation
HighPopulation
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Shoreline DefenseShoreline Defense
Atlantic CityAtlantic City
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Beach and Dune Construction
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Dune BufferDune Buffer
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SeawallSeawall
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Dune RestorationDune Restoration
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MigrationMigration
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Atlantic OceanAtlantic Ocean
•95/97 DOQQ courtesy of NJDEP•Illustration created by Jeffrey Pace, Rutgers Coastal Geomorphology Group
•95/97 DOQQ courtesy of NJDEP•Illustration created by Jeffrey Pace, Rutgers Coastal Geomorphology Group
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Sea Level RiseBayside Vulnerability
Psuty, May, 2011
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Marsh Edge Loss
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MARSH DYNAMICS
Accretion = 0.18-0.30 cm/yr Sea-Level Rise = 0.10-0.24 cm/yr
• Modified Shoreline Habitat
• Degraded Wetland
• Accelerated Fringe Erosion
• Open Water Habitat Expansion
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REGIONAL FACTORS SUBSIDENCE
ISOSTATIC ADJUSTMENTSEDIMENT COMPACTION
• Modified Shoreline Habitat
• Degraded Wetland
• Accelerated Fringe Erosion
• Open Water Habitat Expansion
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• Ocean Temperature Increase Down to 3000 m
Geographic Variability in the Rate of
Sea Level Rise
• Global Sea Level Rise 1.8 mm/yr during 20th century3.2 mm/yr during 2000-20103.3 mm/yr current rate of sea level rise
Observed Change – Oceans – Beaches
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Why Is Global Sea Level Rising?
• Thermal ExpansionWarmer water is less dense than colder water
• Melting of Glaciers Valley glaciersIce sheets
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Global mean sea level changes
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The Greenhouse EffectThe burning of fossil fuels
and forests increases CO2 in the atmosphere.
Increases in CO2 cause more heat to be trapped in the earth's atmosphere.
As a result, global temperatures are rising.
Warmer temperatures raise sea levels (by melting more ice) and decrease agriculture output (by affecting weather patterns).
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Deforestation
Clearing Tropical Rain Forests
Increases Atmospheric CO2
Accelerating Greenhouse Effect
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Hottest years on record have occurred
during the past decade
Green bars show 95% confidence intervals
Global surface temperature since 1880
°C
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Where we have been
Past century ofNJ climate variability
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Warmer↓
MoreEvaporation
Warmer↓
MorePrecipitation
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HURRICANE MITCHHURRICANE MITCH 1998
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More floods and droughts?
Spruce Run Reservoir:March 2002
Easton-PhillipsburgBridge: June 2006
Delaware River: Sept. 2004
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Nor'easterApril 15-16, 2007
Bound Brook
Manville
Sometimestoo much……
River Vale
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The Greenland Ice Sheet Dominates Land
Ice in the ArcticOver the past two decades,
the melt area on the Greenland ice sheet has increased on average by
about 0.7%/year (or about 20% from 1979 to 2005).
The Greenland Ice Sheet Dominates Land
Ice in the ArcticOver the past two decades,
the melt area on the Greenland ice sheet has increased on average by
about 0.7%/year (or about 20% from 1979 to 2005).
Source: Business Week Aug. 2004
Greenland Ice Sheet Significant Melting
1979 - 2012
Total Melting Would Raise Sea Level 6-7 m
Antarctic Melting60-70 m
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Greenland (10.8% of Global Ice)3 km thick
1.7 million square kilometers 2.6 million cubic meters (volume)286 GT/yr (melting rate)
Antarctic (84.6% of Global Ice)5 km thick
~14 million square kilometers~30 million cubic meters (volume)246 GT/yr (melting rate)
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Impact of Sea Level Rise on New Jersey
Cooper, Beevers, and Oppenheimer 2005
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Sustainable Development?Sustainable Development?
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The End