climate change, forests and fire: issues in current …climate change, forests and fire: issues in...

Climate change, forests and fire: issues in

current and future resource management in

the California National Forests

Hugh Safford

Regional EcologistRegional Ecologist

USDA Forest Service

Pacific Southwest Region

1323 Club Drive

Vallejo, CA 94592

Department of Environmental Science

and Policy

University of California

Davis, CA 95616

[email protected]

707-562-8934

I. I. Review of climate trends and projectionsReview of climate trends and projections

II. II. Review of fire trends and projectionsReview of fire trends and projections

III. III. Ecological implications for resource mgt.Ecological implications for resource mgt.

-- Biological: Biological:

VegetationVegetation

Outline

VegetationVegetation

Plant diversityPlant diversity

Wildlife habitatWildlife habitat

-- Physical: Physical:

CarbonCarbon

Water and soilWater and soil

IV.IV. ConclusionsConclusions

Not a focus of my

presentation

California: mean

annual temps,

1920-2005

Temperatures are climbingC L I M A T E

Tahoe City:

number of days

below freezing,

1910-2009

Moser et al. 2009

TERC 2009

C L I M A T E

C L I M A T E

Precipitation is ~steadyC L I M A T E

100+ year record shows modest increase in mean

annual ppt in most California climate regions

WRCC 2009

C L I M A T E

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

yr sta

ndard

devia

tion in a

nnual pre

cip

itation

5-yr running standard deviations in

mean annual precipitation

Lake Tahoe

Interannual variability in ppt. is up*, and

snow:rain proportion is downC L I M A T E

0

2

4

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

5-y

r sta

ndard

devia

tion in a

nnual pre

cip

itation

Year

Tahoe City: snow as

a fraction of

total precipitation

* but not at all stations

WRCC 2009

TERC 2009

C L I M A T E

Winter snowpack is down across most of California

Trends in the amount

of water contained in

the snowpack (“snow

water equivalent”) on

April 1, for the period

1950-1997.

C L I M A T E

Summer moisture in California montane

forests is primarily snowpack-derivedMoser et al. 2009

C L I M A T E

Future climate: models project more of the same

California mean annual temperature

C L I M A T E

Historic and projected annual mean temperature for California, from three

GCMs using the A2 and B1 IPCC emissions scenarios

Moser et al. 2009

Future climate: snowpack

California:

C L I M A T E

California:

predicted snow-

pack trends from

2010 to 2100

CalFire-FRAP, draft 2010

C L I M A T E

Climate summaryC L I M A T E

1.1. It’s getting warmer, especially at nightIt’s getting warmer, especially at night

2.2. Mean annual precipitation appears to be Mean annual precipitation appears to be

holding steadyholding steady

3.3. InterannualInterannual variability in precipitation is variability in precipitation is

increasing in many places (higher highs, increasing in many places (higher highs,

C L I M A T E

increasing in many places (higher highs, increasing in many places (higher highs,

lower lows)lower lows)

4.4. Snow:rainSnow:rain ratio and snowpack are ratio and snowpack are

decreasingdecreasing

5.5. Combination of these factors is resulting in Combination of these factors is resulting in

drier summersdrier summers

F I R E

Area burned by wildfire is increasing across

California in many ecosystemsF I R E

CalFire-FRAP, draft 2010

California: annual acres burned by decade and

lifeform 1950’s-2000’s

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Year

Hecta

res (th

ousands)

A

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Year

Hecta

res

B

Mean fire sizeAnnual burned area

Fire

suppression

Compare to

+/- 180,000

ha per year

pre-1800

Sierra Nevada: trends in fire area and severity

Total burned area 10yr Moving Avg A Average Fire Size 10yr Moving Avg B

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Year

Hecta

res (th

ousands)

Maximum Fire Size 10yr Moving Avg C

All Forest Types

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

% H

igh S

everi

ty

100

1000

10000

100000

Ha

% High Severity 10Yr Moving Avg Mapped Burned Ha

R2 = 0.465, P(lin.) = 0.006

All Forest Types

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

% H

igh S

everi

ty

100

1000

10000

100000

Ha

% High Severity 10Yr Moving Avg Mapped Burned Ha

R2 = 0.465, P(lin.) = 0.006

Max. fire size Forest fire severity

Miller et al. 2009

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Hecta

res (th

ousands)

Total burned area 11 yr Moving Avg

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Hecta

res

Mean fire size 11 yr Moving Avg

Annual burned area Mean fire size

1987:

185,851 ha

2008:

212,819 ha

Klamath Mountains: trends in fire area and severity

Total burned area 11 yr Moving Avg Mean fire size 11 yr Moving Avg

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Hecta

res (th

ousands)

Max fire size 11 yr Moving Avg

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Ha

% H

igh S

everity

Forest Fire Severity

% High Severity 10Yr Moving Avg Total Burned Area

NSMax. fire size

Miller , Ramirez & Safford, in prep.

F I R E

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Hecta

res

Mean fire size 11 yr Moving Avg

Fire trends have clear

links to climate, but also

to fuels, and to changing

federal fire management

policies and practices

F I R E

Miller and Safford 2008, Miller et al. 2009; Miller, Ramirez & Safford, in prep

80

90

100

Wetter and higher elevation forest types are not

experiencing an increase in fire severity

“Fuels-limited” forests:

strong current departure

from characteristic fire

regime

“Climate-limited” forests:

no discernable departure

from characteristic fire

regime

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Current

Ref.

Current

Ref.

Current

Ref.

Current

Ref.

E-side Pine Pond. Pine White Fir Red Fir

% o

f burn

ed a

rea

Low

Moderate

High

NationalAtlas.gov 2009

Klamaths are much

wetter and more

topographically

complex than the

Sierra Nevada

Miller and Safford 2008

F I R E

Future fire trends: Models project increases in fire

activity, but there are projected decreases in some parts of the State

Sierra

Nevada

Klamath

Mtns

F I R E

Lenihan et al. 2008

PCM-A2: no change in ppt., +2.5 to 3° C; GFDL-B1 scenario: slightly drier, +2.5 to

3° C; GFDL-A2: much drier, +4 to 5° C

Future fire trends: Increasing probabilities of large wildfires

except in areas of climatic extremes (very wet, dry, or cold)

State of California 2009

Future fire trends: increasing fire intensity,except in Klamaths under drier future scenario

Lenihan et al. 2003

= increased

intensity

HADCM2: much wetter than today, +3.5 to 4° C; PCM: slightly drier, +1.5 to 2.5° C

Fire summary

1.1. Wildfires in California forests are becoming Wildfires in California forests are becoming

more frequent and larger more frequent and larger

2.2. Annual burned area is increasing across Annual burned area is increasing across

most vegetation typesmost vegetation types

3.3. Fire severity is increasing in semiFire severity is increasing in semi--arid arid

F I R E

3.3. Fire severity is increasing in semiFire severity is increasing in semi--arid arid

forestlands (“fuelforestlands (“fuel--limited” types), but not limited” types), but not

changing in wetter and/or higher elevation changing in wetter and/or higher elevation

forests or in southern California chaparral forests or in southern California chaparral

(“climate(“climate--limited” types)limited” types)

4.4. Future projections are for more frequent, Future projections are for more frequent,

larger, and more intense wildfireslarger, and more intense wildfires

F I R E

no change in

ppt., +2.5 to

3° C;

much drier,

+4 to 5° C

Ecological implications of future fire regimes I. Vegetation

Lenihan et al. 2008

Sierra

Nevada

Interactions between climate change and fire are projected

to have major effects on California vegetation

Sierra Nevada Ecoregion

15

20

25

30

35%

of la

ndscape

subalpine forest and

alpine

evergreen conifer forest

mixed evergreen forest

mixed evergreen

woodland

shrubland

V E G E T A T I O N

Much drier

& much

warmer

Same ppt.

& warmer

Slightly drier

& warmer

0

5

10

15

Current

(1961-

1990)

GFDL-B1

(2071-

2100)

PCM-A2

(2071-

2100)

GFDL-A2

(2071-

2100)

% o

f la

ndscape

shrubland

grassland

arid lands

Lenihan et al. 2008

Increase in hardwood types, loss in conifer forest; increase in

grassland; major loss of subalpine forest

V E G E T A T I O N

30

40

50

60

70%

of la

ndscape

subalpine forest and

alpine

evergreen conifer forest

mixed evergreen forest

mixed evergreen

woodland

shrubland

Sierra Nevada Foothill EcoregionV E G E T A T I O NMuch drier

& much

warmer

Same ppt.

& warmer

Slightly drier

& warmer

0

10

20

30

Current

(1961-

1990)

GFDL-B1

(2071-

2100)

PCM-A2

(2071-

2100)

GFDL-A2

(2071-

2100)

% o

f la

ndscape

shrubland

grassland

arid lands

“Complete” loss of conifer forest; possible increase in semi-desert;

hardwood coverage increases or decreases depending on ppt.

Lenihan et al. 2008 V E G E T A T I O N

1934 2000

Projected changes in vegetation are already underway

(1) Loss of yellow pine dominated forest

(logging X fire suppression X climate)

(2) Increase in hardwood density and

forest cover (climate X disturbance)

(3) Loss of subalpine forest (climate)

plus

(4) Loss of blue oak woodland (urban &

ag expansion)Thorne 2008

V E G E T A T I O N

Interactions among fire, insects, disease, drought, pollution, and other

stressors are provoking vegetation changes across California

Forestland to shrubland and grassland

V E G E T A T I O N

Jeffrey pine killed by fire near San Diego,

6 yrs post-fire with no regeneration: fire X

temperature X drought X pine beetles

Loss of piñon pine near Topaz Lake, western

Great Basin: invasive species X fire X pine

beetles

V E G E T A T I O N

Shrubland to grasslandForestland to shrubland

V E G E T A T I O N

Frequent anthropogenic fire reducing coastal

sage scrub to grassland: fire X exotic species

X drought

Repeated wildfire reducing forest to

shrubland: fire X temperature X drought

PIPOPIPO

PIJEPIJE

ABCOABCO

Sensitivity to air pollution (N and ozone)

Susceptibility to insect/disease PIPOPIPO

PIJEPIJE

PILAPILA

Sensitivity to increased temperatures

ABCOABCO

PILAPILA

Sensitivity to water stress

ABCOABCO

Sensitivity to fire (adult)

CADECADE

ABCOABCO

California forests are under major ecological stress: the

example of southern California

CADECADE

Sensitivity to air pollution (N and ozone)

Susceptibility to insect/disease

CADECADE

ABCOABCO

Sensitivity to increased temperatures

PIPOPIPO

CADECADE

Sensitivity to water stress

PIPOPIPO

PIJEPIJE

CADECADE

Sensitivity to fire (adult)

PIPOPIPO

PIJEPIJE

Who wins?

Pollution FireInsects/disease H2O stressTemps

Trends in high severity patch size

In conifer vegetation, the size of

high severity patches in Sierra

Nevada fires has increased over

the last two decades

Mean patch radius = 130 m

Average Patch Size

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

He

cta

res

R2 = 0.325, P = 0.011

400

Mean distance to nearest living seed

tree, Angora Fire

Sierra Nevada: mean high severity patch size

0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Average Patch Size 10yr Moving Avg

These patterns have

important implications for

forest fragmentation, postfire

regeneration, vegetation

succession, soil erosion, etc.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Mete

rs Treated

Untreated

Miller and Safford 2008

Safford et al., in prep.

V E G E T A T I O N

Meadow to forestlandPine forest to fir forest

In many places, lack of fire is just as serious an ecosystem

disturbance as uncharacteristically frequent or severe fireV E G E T A T I O N

Meadows being invaded by conifers: lack of

fire X decreasing snowpack X grazing

Loss of large pine dominance in many montane

forests: lack of fire X water stress

V E G E T A T I O N

Vegetation summary

1.1. Fire will interact with climate and other factors to Fire will interact with climate and other factors to

provoke major changes in vegetation; projected provoke major changes in vegetation; projected

changes are already occurringchanges are already occurring

2.2. As high severity area and patch size increase, and as As high severity area and patch size increase, and as

summer droughts deepen, regeneration of many conifer summer droughts deepen, regeneration of many conifer

species will become progressively more difficultspecies will become progressively more difficult

3.3. Given sufficient Given sufficient precipprecip., hardwood species will replace ., hardwood species will replace

V E G E T A T I O N

many lower elevation conifer forests after disturbancemany lower elevation conifer forests after disturbance

4.4. Many areas of persistent Many areas of persistent shrublandshrubland that succeeded to that succeeded to

conifers under fire suppression may return to shrubsconifers under fire suppression may return to shrubs

5.5. Major expansion of grassland is projected for much of Major expansion of grassland is projected for much of

California due to frequent fires in forests and California due to frequent fires in forests and shrublandsshrublands

6.6. Densification of subalpine forests and expansion of Densification of subalpine forests and expansion of

subalpine trees into previously “permanent” snowfields subalpine trees into previously “permanent” snowfields

may increase continuity of subalpine fuelsmay increase continuity of subalpine fuels

High

B I O D I V E R S I T Y Species adapt to fill niches created by an ecosystem’s

“characteristic” disturbance regime.

Ecological implications of future fire regimes II. Biodiversity

Characteristic disturbancefrequency

Relative diversity

Time since last disturbanceLow

HighShort

Long

B I O D I V E R S I T Y

Denslow 1985, Milchunas et al. 1988, Huston 1994

High


Strong departures from the characteristic regime will

negatively impact the diversity of species native to the

ecosystem in question

Characteristic disturbancefrequency

Relative diversity

Time since last disturbanceLow

HighShort

Long


Denslow 1985, Milchunas et al. 1988, Huston 1994

Too much disturbance

Too little

disturbance


100

120

140

160

180

200

Presettlement: FRI

(yr)

Subalpine

Yrs since fire

suppression

In the Sierra Nevada, fire suppression and climate change have

greatly changed fire regimes in many low-middle elevation forests B I O D I V E R S I T Y

0

20

40

60

80

1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Elevation (m)

(yr)

Yellow pine Mixed conifer White fir-Red fir

Red fir-White pine

suppression

Fire return interval

departures are greatest in

fuel-limited forests, but low

to nonexistent in climate-

limited forests

Miller et al. 2009; Safford, in prep.


100

120

140

160

180

200

Presettlement: FRI (yr)

Presettlement: High

severity fire (%)

Subalpine

When fire does occur, it burns at uncharacteristically high

severity in many low-middle elevation forestsB I O D I V E R S I T Y

0

20

40

60

80

1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Elevation (m)

severity fire (%)

Current: High severity

fire (%)

Yellow pine Mixed conifer White fir-Red fir

Red fir-White pine

Stephens et al. 2007, Miller et al. 2009,

Safford, in prep.

Increases in fire severity

vary from high in fuel-limited

forests to low or none in

climate-limited forests


California yellow pine forests are adapted to frequent fires of

predominantly low to moderate severityFire Suppression

Most species are best adapted to this fire regime


Fire Suppression


6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Treated

Untreated

Large contiguous areas of high severity fire in yellow pine

forests are uncharacteristic of the ecosystem, and are

usually less biodiverse than areas of low and mixed severity

In the Angora Fire (Lake Tahoe,

2007), open-canopied stands in

fuel treatments burned at low to

moderate severity, untreated

forest burned at high severity

P = 0.025

P = 0.002


0

2

4

Understory species Herb species

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Specie

s

Plots

Untreated

Treated

Alpha diversity (810 m2 plots)

Beta diversity (spp./area curves)

Both graphs from

one year postfire


Large contiguous areas of high severity fire in chaparral are

characteristic of the ecosystem, and are usually more

biodiverse than areas of low and mixed severity

20

25

30

35

40

Specie

s/2

50 m

2

Sandstone

In the Sixteen Fire (Lake County,

1999), dense canopy chaparral

on fertile sandstone substrates

burned at higher severity than

more open canopied stands on

infertile serpentine substrates


0

5

10

15

20

Prefire Postfire

Specie

s/2

50 m

Sandstone

Serpentine

Alpha diversity (250 m2 plots)

After fire, species richness rose

by 140% in the more productive

chaparral, vs. only 35% in the

serpentine chaparral . Since fire

is characteristically less

frequent and less severe in the

serpentine vegetation, fewer

plant species fill “regeneration”

niches

Safford and Harrison 2004

Biodiversity summary

1.1. For a given ecosystem, ecological theory predicts that For a given ecosystem, ecological theory predicts that

species diversity should be highest under some species diversity should be highest under some

“characteristic” regime of disturbance, due to evolutionary “characteristic” regime of disturbance, due to evolutionary

responses to disturbance selectionresponses to disturbance selection

2.2. Continued and exacerbated departure from historically Continued and exacerbated departure from historically

“characteristic” disturbance regimes will have negative “characteristic” disturbance regimes will have negative

consequences for native biodiversityconsequences for native biodiversity

3.3. The occurrence of uncharacteristically The occurrence of uncharacteristically infrequentinfrequent and and


3.3. The occurrence of uncharacteristically The occurrence of uncharacteristically infrequentinfrequent and and

severesevere fire in yellow pine and mixed conifer forests is the fire in yellow pine and mixed conifer forests is the

most important land management issue in the Sierra most important land management issue in the Sierra

Nevada; it will require major economic and political Nevada; it will require major economic and political

investment, and the reinvigoration of fire as a major investment, and the reinvigoration of fire as a major

ecosystem processecosystem process

4.4. The occurrence of uncharacteristically The occurrence of uncharacteristically frequentfrequent fire in fire in

chaparral and coastal sage is a major land management chaparral and coastal sage is a major land management

issue in S. California; it will require major economic and issue in S. California; it will require major economic and

political investment, and continued implementation of nopolitical investment, and continued implementation of no--

holds barred fire suppression policiesholds barred fire suppression policies


Two stories:

Old forest obligates

Postfire specialists

Ecological implications of future fire regimes III. Wildlife habitatW I L D L I F E

W I L D L I F E

Old forest obligates: projected outcomes of climate

change for Fisher (Martes pennanti)

absent (100% )

stable (100%)

expansion (< 50%)

contraction (50-70%)

expansion (50-70%)

expansion (>70%)

contraction (< 50%)

contraction (> 70%)

Projection (% agreement across 10 GCM projections)

Most GCM-based climate

niche models predict

strong contraction of fisher

habitat in California…

Lawlor, Safford, & Girvetz, in prep.

W I L D L I F E

…but these projections ignore the effects of future

fire regimes

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

% o

f la

ndscape

-50 to -75%

-25 to -50

-10 to -25

-5 to -10

-5 to +5

+5 to 10

10 to 25

25 to 50

50 to 100%

= higher frequency fire

Ranges

Coast

Sacramento

Redding

Klamath

Mountains

S i e r r a N

e v a d a

Klamath

population

Southern Sierra

Nevada population

Ranges

Coast

Sacramento

Redding

Klamath

Mountains

S i e r r a N

e v a d a

Ranges

Coast

Sacramento

Redding

Klamath

Mountains

S i e r r a N

e v a d a

Ranges

Coast

Sacramento

Redding

Klamath

Mountains

S i e r r a N

e v a d a

Klamath

population

Southern Sierra

Nevada population

Fire frequency

projections

W I L D L I F E

HAD (2099) PCM (2099)A

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

HAD (2099) PCM (2099)

% o

f la

ndscape

-50 to -75%

-25 to -50

-10 to -25

-5 to -10

-5 to +5

+5 to 10

10 to 25

25 to 50

50 to 100%

BLenihan et al. 2003

Coast R

anges

Los Angeles

Bakersfield

Fresno

San Diego

S i e r r a N

e v a d a

0 100 200kilometers

N

Nevada population

Coast R

anges

Los Angeles

Bakersfield

Fresno

San Diego

S i e r r a N

e v a d a

0 100 200kilometers

N

Coast R

anges

Los Angeles

Bakersfield

Fresno

San Diego

S i e r r a N

e v a d aCoast R

anges

Los Angeles

Bakersfield

Fresno

San Diego

S i e r r a N

e v a d a

0 100 200kilometers

N

Nevada population

Most scenarios project

higher fire frequencies in

California fisher habitat

W I L D L I F E

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

HAD (2099) PCM (2099)

% o

f la

ndscape

-50 to -75%

-25 to -50

-10 to -25

-5 to -10

-5 to +5

+5 to 10

10 to 25

25 to 50

50 to 75%

ACoast R

anges

Ranges

Coast

Fresno

Sacramento

Redding

Klamath

Mountains

S i e r r a N

e v a d a

Klamath

population

Southern Sierra

Nevada population

Coast R

anges

Ranges

Coast

Fresno

Sacramento

Redding

Klamath

Mountains

S i e r r a N

e v a d aCoast R

anges

Ranges

Coast

Fresno

Sacramento

Redding

Klamath

Mountains

S i e r r a N

e v a d aCoast R

anges

Ranges

Coast

Fresno

Sacramento

Redding

Klamath

Mountains

S i e r r a N

e v a d a

Klamath

population

Southern Sierra

Nevada population

Fire intensity projections

88% of landscape

with = or higher

intensity fire

52%

W I L D L I F E

HAD (2099) PCM (2099)A

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

HAD (2099) PCM (2099)

% o

f la

ndscape

-50 to -75%

-25 to -50

-10 to -25

-5 to -10

-5 to +5

+5 to 10

10 to 25

25 to 50

50 to 75%

B

Coast R

anges

Los Angeles

Bakersfield

Fresno

San Diego

S i e r r a N

e v a d a

0 100 200kilometers

N

Coast R

anges

Los Angeles

Bakersfield

Fresno

San Diego

S i e r r a N

e v a d a

0 100 200kilometers

N

Coast R

anges

Los Angeles

Bakersfield

Fresno

San Diego

S i e r r a N

e v a d aCoast R

anges

Los Angeles

Bakersfield

Fresno

San Diego

S i e r r a N

e v a d a

0 100 200kilometers

N

Most scenarios project

higher fire intensities in

California fisher habitat

Lenihan et al. 2003

76% 87%

W I L D L I F E

Mixed Conifer

40

50

60

% H

igh S

everity

10000

100000R2 = 0.356, P (lin.) = 0.025

Predicted increases in fire intensity/severity are well-

underway in the Sierra NevadaW I L D L I F E

0

10

20

30

1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

% H

igh S

everity

100

1000

Ha

B

5-10% belt(probable historic

average – Stephens

et al. 2007)

Miller et al. 2009

Stephens et al. 2007, Miller & Safford 200830000

35000

40000

45000

50000

Acre

s

High Severity AreaArea of high severity fire in the Sierra Nevada, 1984-2007

W I L D L I F E

Post-fire specialists: temporal trends in the creation of

snag habitat

Stephens et al. 2007, Miller & Safford 2008

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Acre

s

Mean +/- 33% for

annual area of high

severity fire in

presettlement Sierra

Nevada forests

Trend: strongly increasing over the last quarter century, and

well within (or beyond) presettlement bounds

W I L D L I F E

Wildlife summary

1.1. Current trends in fire regimes pose a growing Current trends in fire regimes pose a growing

challenge to species that require dense, old challenge to species that require dense, old

forest habitat during some part of their life cycleforest habitat during some part of their life cycle

2.2. Other direct and indirect effects of climate Other direct and indirect effects of climate

warming will increase stress on these specieswarming will increase stress on these species

3.3. At the level of the Sierra Nevada as a whole, At the level of the Sierra Nevada as a whole,

W I L D L I F E

3.3. At the level of the Sierra Nevada as a whole, At the level of the Sierra Nevada as a whole,

current production of snag habitat through high current production of snag habitat through high

severity fire is at levels characteristic of the preseverity fire is at levels characteristic of the pre--

EuroamericanEuroamerican settlement period, and trends in settlement period, and trends in

high severity habitat creation are strongly upwardhigh severity habitat creation are strongly upward

4.4. If current climate and fire trends continue, habitat If current climate and fire trends continue, habitat

for old forest obligate species will retract, and for old forest obligate species will retract, and

habitat for postfire specialists will expandhabitat for postfire specialists will expand

W I L D L I F E

Concluding thoughts

1.1. Current USFS priorities focus on “ecological Current USFS priorities focus on “ecological

restoration”, ecosystem services, and climate restoration”, ecosystem services, and climate

change adaptation and mitigationchange adaptation and mitigation

2.2. Mgt. focus on “restoration” requires some real Mgt. focus on “restoration” requires some real

critical thinking: past reference conditions may critical thinking: past reference conditions may

not be an appropriate target for future not be an appropriate target for future

ecosystems. Focus must be on ecological ecosystems. Focus must be on ecological

processes and not patternsprocesses and not patterns

3.3. Fire management, a variety of ecological Fire management, a variety of ecological

disturbances, and climate warming are disturbances, and climate warming are

interacting to create “threshold conditions” in interacting to create “threshold conditions” in

many vegetation types in the California National many vegetation types in the California National

ForestsForests

4.4. Unless we can reverse climate warming, Unless we can reverse climate warming,

dramatic changes in forests and other dramatic changes in forests and other

vegetation in the California mountains are vegetation in the California mountains are

inevitable. Many of these changes are already inevitable. Many of these changes are already

underwayunderway

Concluding thoughts

5.5. Habitat for old forest obligate species will be Habitat for old forest obligate species will be

very difficult to maintain under likely future very difficult to maintain under likely future

climate and fire regimes. There is currently little climate and fire regimes. There is currently little

consensus on what to doconsensus on what to do

Concluding thoughts

6.6. Past emphasis on allPast emphasis on all--out fire suppression is out fire suppression is

waning, but use of waning, but use of wildlandwildland fire for ecological fire for ecological

benefit is still the exception rather than the rule. benefit is still the exception rather than the rule.

Use of purely mechanical means to reduce Use of purely mechanical means to reduce

forest fuels and increase forest resilience to forest fuels and increase forest resilience to

warming and disturbances will never come close warming and disturbances will never come close warming and disturbances will never come close warming and disturbances will never come close

to solving the problemto solving the problem

7.7. Response to all of these issues will require Response to all of these issues will require

unprecedented integration of science and unprecedented integration of science and

management. We need your help!management. We need your help!

Thank you

climate change, forests and fire: issues in current …climate change, forests and fire: issues in...

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