Climate change, disasters and the Philippines: Issues and Imperatives for

the 2015 Paris Agreement

Antonio G.M. La Viña, JSDPhilippines

Warsaw

Haiyan lands in Warsaw

How is Climate Change Affecting the Philippines?

Temperature Change

Localizing IPCC AR 5

Precipitation Change

How is Climate Change Affecting the Philippines?

Source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov

Stronger Storms

How is Climate Change Affecting the Philippines?

Avila, Castillo, Villarin (Manila Observatory)

El Nino Impact on Rainfall

How is Climate Change Affecting the Philippines?

Source: Food and Agricultural Organization. http://faostat.fao.org

Impact on Food Security

El Nino Years

How is Climate Change Affecting the Philippines?

• Coastal / Marine Impacts

Sea Level Rise Ocean Acidification

Increase in Sea Surface

Temperature

Coral Bleaching Storm Surges

Climate change and the poor

Warsaw COP19

• Climate Finance– Adaptation finance

• Making progress in ADP– Firewall between developed and developing

countries• Loss and Damage

• Elephant in the room: Haiyan/Yolanda

Center for Science and Environment

A View From the South...

Mitigation and Adaptation in the UNFCCC

• First phase of CC global response: Mitigation

• Failure of mitigation by developed countries

• Increasing contributions of developing countries to GHG accumulation

• The emergence of adaptation as a UNFCCC agenda

Article 2, UNFCCC

The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

Recurring Issues in the Negotiations

Role of Science in the International Process(IPCC AR5)

The challenge of Climate Finance related to the issue of Technology Transfer

Market Mechanisms: Role of the Private sector

Climate and Land use Issues(REDD and LULUCF)

What is the potential for agreement in Paris?

We have three possible scenarios.

Unacceptable

Best Possible

Most likely

Warsaw Huddle

Durban Huddle

Philippine Response to Climate Change

Climate Change Act of 2009

National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act of 2010

National Framework Strategy on Climate Change (2010)

National Climate Change Action Plan (2011)

People’s Survival Fund Act of 2012

Converging International and Local: Issues and Challenges

Implementing adaptation Accessing adaptation finance and

technology Loss and damage Climate justice Implementing mitigation measures Adopting NAMA’s – energy and land use as

priorities

House of Dacay250 tons of limestone, 47 tons of grass, 8000 reeds

Philippine Daily Inquirer, 29 June 2008, Photo by Nino Jesus Orbeta

Haiku in Kyoto

I do not want to be afraid of the rains and long for the memory of how they once

made our mountains more beautiful to see and I do not want to weep for my children

as I watch the sea.

Sunset on a place that bleeds