1

Lewis H. Ziska, USDA-ARS

Thanks to:Linda Ford, MD American Lung Association, Omaha, NE

James Straka, PhD, Macalester College, St. Paul, MNDavid Frenz, MD, the Bethesda Clinic, St. Paul, MNJonathan Patz, MD Johns Hopkins, Baltimore, MD

Dennis Gebhard, Multidata Inc., St. Paul, MNPaul Epstein, MD, Harvard, Boston, MA

Climate Change, CO2 and Allergies: the

Plant Perspective.

COLA allergy conference

Atmospheric CO2

So what if CO2 goes up?

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

CO

2 Em

issi

ons

(GtC

y-1)

5

6

7

8

9

10Actual emissions: CDIACActual emissions: EIA450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2

20062005

2007

I. An indirect effect of rising carbon dioxide: warmer temperatures.

0.05 to 1.00

Water (H2O)

0.04 up to 0.100

Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

0.93Argon (Ar)

20.1Oxygen (O2)

78.1Nitrogen (N2)

%Gas

No H2O and CO2? Surface temperature would be –18oC. With H2O and CO2? Surface temperature is 15oC.

H2O vs. CO2Poles

Deserts

Winter

If water vapor is high, it will be the dominant warming gas….little effect of CO2If water vapor is low, adding CO2 will increase the surface temperature.

Equator

altitude

Polar Melting.CO2, warming and public health.

• Changes in range of insect or rodent borne diseases.

• Changes in water or seafood borne diseases.

• Increasing ground-level ozone, and respiratory ailments.

• Contamination of drinking water due to excessive flooding.

• Heat-related deaths / fewer cold related.

2

So what if CO2 goes up?, Part II, direct impacts

Carbon dioxide is the source of carbon for photosynthesis, and consequently for 99% of all life.

CO2 + H2O + light → O2 + organic C + chemical energy

Nutrients, H2O

CO2

Food, GloriousFood!

Plants are Important.

“People who imagined that life on earth consisted of animals moving against a green background, seriously misunderstood what they were seeing. That green background was busily alive. Plants grew, moved, twisted and turned, fighting for [resources]; and they interacted continuously with animals—discouraging some with bark and thorns, poisoning others, and feeding still others with pollen and seeds. It was a complex, dynamic process…one which most people didn’t understand. “

Michael Crichton, Page 86, “Jurassic Park”

Plants are necessary for the flow of energy and carbon through ecosystems. 90% of all living matter consists of plant life.

With the exception of a few subterranean organisms, if plantsdid not exist, life would not exist.

Plant growth however is dependent on four physical inputs.

Any perturbation in these inputs will alter all living systems.

But isn’t more plant growth desirable?

“We are living in an increasingly lush environment of plants and animals as a result of the carbon dioxide increase. This is a wonderful and unexpected gift from the industrial revolution.”WSJ

CO2 is a VERY smart molecule.

Green is not always good.

How can plants affect public health?How can plants affect public health?Some direct effects:Some direct effects:

Allergies / Asthma:Allergies / Asthma:Contact dermatitis:Contact dermatitis:Poison/Toxicology:Poison/Toxicology:

3. CO2, plants and poison

Devils trumpet

Deadly Nightshade

Wolfsbane

Suicide tree

Apple of Sodom

Stinging nettle

Death Camas

3

2. CO2, plants and contact dermatitis

Can rising CO2 alter plant based dermatitis?

The Duke University FACE Site: State of the Art.

Poison ivy at Duke Face ring.

Poison ivy plants grow faster at elevated CO2

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20040

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10370 ul/l

570 ul/l

Poison ivy allergenicity

Elevated CO2

Ambient CO2

saturatedα−monoeneβ−monoenedienetriene

Uns

atur

ated

:Sat

urat

ed C

ogen

ers

0

5

10

15

20

**

Ambient Elevated

Duke University, USDA study, PNAS 103:9086-9089

1. CO1. CO22, plants and allergies, plants and allergies

Principle Fall Allergen

~35 million sufferers

Common ragweed.

4

Determining Ragweed Pollen Determining Ragweed Pollen

ProductionProduction

Sampling pollen from ragweed catkins.

Response of common ragweed to CO2

0

100

200

300

400

280280 600600370370

g plantg plant--11

Chamber Study, USDAFunctional Plant Biology 27:893-898Functional Plant Biology 32:667-670

• Pollen Production280 ppm 4.8 g370 ppm 10.9 g*600 ppm 20.5 g*

Antigen Amb a1 ELISA / mg protein280 ppm 4490370 ppm 5290600 ppm 8180*

Ragweed in real lifeAll this is “blue-sky” hypothetical &*^$%# anyway. It won’t happen in real-life, and even if it does, temperature and carbon dioxide effects are a long ways away.

Mauna Loa, “Official” CO2 data.

10,000 feet on a mountaintop in Hawaii.

Is the rise in COIs the rise in CO22 the same the same everywhere?everywhere?

Change in average day-time CO2 concentration (ppm) from downtown Baltimore to an organic (rural) farm.

300

400

500

Farm Park City

386.2402.2

455.5

Is the increase in temperature the same?

• Change in average daily temperature (oC) from downtown Baltimore to an organic (rural) farm (2002).

15

17

19

21

23

Farm Park City

19.120.7

18.6

Urbanization and climate change.Daytime Carbon Dioxide (ppm)

Location 2002 2003 2004 2005___________________________________

Rural 381 373 380 386Suburban 394 370 400 413Urban 458 520 456 458____________________________________

Daytime Air Temperature (oC)

Location 2002 2003 2004 2005___________________________________

Rural 25.1 22.5 24.4 25.3Suburban 25.8 23.9 25.3 26.0Urban 26.6 24.7 26.3 27.2____________________________________

Night-time Temperature (oC)

Location 2002 2003 2004 2005___________________________________

Rural 19.6 18.0 19.0 19.0Suburban 19.3 18.6 19.2 19.3Urban 22.3 21.3 22.5 22.7____________________________________

Change in season length (days)

2002 2003 2004 2005___________________________________

Urban-Rural 36 41 52 39____________________________________

Day of year

210 215 220 225 230 235 240 245

Ave

rage

day

time

CO

2 diff

eren

ce (u

rban

-rur

al)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Average = 89.0+9.9

Are these differences consistent?

What about other meteorological variables?

Day of Year (2004)

100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280

8-h

ozon

e av

erag

e (n

l O3 l

-1 o

f air)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

8-h daytime ozone. 2004 season

CO2 differencesAugust, 2004

Overall: Urban-induced increases in carbon dioxide, air temperature and growing season are consistent with most IPCC near-term scenarios. With the exception of N deposition, othervariables did not differ consistency, but N low relative to soil N.

George et al. Oecologia, 159:637-647 .

5

Can we study the effects of climate change NOW?

Placing four 2x2 m2 plots Near downtown Baltimore.Use same soil and seed bankin suburban and rural locations.

2006

Got ragweed?

210 220 230 240 250 260 270

Rag

wee

d Po

llen

(gra

ins

m-3

)

0

200

400

600

800

210 220 230 240 250 260 270 210 220 230 240 250 260 270

Farm, rural site County Park, semi-rural Downtown, urban

Day of Year

Urban locale had longer growing season (milder winter), warmertemperatures, and more carbon dioxide.

Scaling Up: Warming should increase with increasing latitude. Is a climate signal apparent with respect to length of ragweed pollen season?

Climate signal: From June 21st to first frost.

Waco

Rogers

Papillion

Minneapolis

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20100

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

r2 = 0.07

Waco TX,

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20100

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

r2 = 0.35

Rogers, AR

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20100

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Pappilion, NE

r2 = 0.18

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20100

20

40

60

80

100

120

140r2 = 0.46

Minneapolis, MN

Leng

th o

f rag

wee

d po

llen

seas

on (d

ays)

Madison, WI

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

20

40

60

80

r2 = 0.44

Leng

th o

f rag

wee

d po

llen

seas

on (d

ays)

Latitude

32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46

Slop

e of

line

-1

0

1

2r2 = 0.89

Significant correlation between increasing latitude and length of ragweed pollen season.

Allergenic pollen producers, Northeast Weeds:Season: May through September

Ragweed (A. atemissiifolia) English plantain (Plantago lanceolata)Giant Ragweed (A trifida) Russian thistle (Salsola kali) Marsh elder (Iva species) Cocklebur (Xanthium strumarium, X. spinosa)Pigweed (A. retroflexus) Lambsquarter (Chenopodia album)Mugwort (Artemisia vulgaris)

Allergenic pollen producers, Mid-Western Weeds:Season: May through October

Ragweed (A. atemissiifolia) Pigweed (Amaranthus retroflexus)Giant Ragweed (A. trifida) English plantain (Plantago lanceolata)Russian thistle (Salsola kali) Fireweed (Kochia scoparia)Marsh elder (Iva species) Cocklebur (Xanthium strumarium, X. spinosa)Lambsquarter (Chenopodia album)

Allergenic pollen producers, Southern Weeds:Season: April through November

Ragweed (A. atemissiifolia) Pigweed (Amaranthus retroflexus)Giant Sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) English plantain (Plantago lanceolata)Marsh elder (Iva species) Cocklebur (Xanthium strumarium, X. spinosa)Yellow Dock (Rumex crispus) Lambsquarter (Chenopodia album)

Allergenic pollen producers, Western Weeds:Season: April through November

Ragweed (A. atemissiifolia) Pigweed (Amaranthus retroflexus)Giant Sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) English plantain (Plantago lanceolata)Russian thistle (Salsola kali) Fireweed (Kochia scoparia)Marsh elder (Iva species) Cocklebur (Xanthium strumarium, X. spinosa)Yellow Dock (Rumex crispus) Lambsquarter (Chenopodia album)

6

8 10 12 14

1213

1415

1617

leaf C:N

ln(A

.alte

rnat

a sp

ores

/ gr

am le

af)

ln(spores) = 10.56 + 0.34*C:N

experimental timothy grassfield-collected grass mixture

Fungal decomposition of plants.

Alternaria alternata has been associated with a number of respiratory problems such as rhinitis, asthma, allergic dermatitis and allergic sinusitis. The spores are the cause of the allergic reactions. Rising CO2 increases C:N ratios, with subsequent effects on spore production.

How can plants affect public health? How can plants affect public health?

Some indirect effectsSome indirect effects::

•Nutrition.

•Medicines / Narcotics.

•Disease vector biology.

•Pesticide use.

1. CO2 and human nutrition.

Recent cooperative work with NIH indicates an increase in omega-3-fatty acids in mung bean with rising CO2.

Percent change in protein concentration with elevated CO2

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5

Potato

Soybean

Wheat

Rice

Barley

2a. CO2, plants and medicine

________________________________________________________________Drug Action/Clinical Use Species_________________________________________________________________

Acetyldigoxin Cardiotonic Digitalis lanataAllyl isothiocyanate Rubefacient Brassica nigraAtropine Antichotinergic Atropa belladonnaBerberine Bacillary dysentery Berberis vulgarisCodeine Analgesic, antitussive Papaver somniferumDanthron Laxative Cassia spp.L-Dopa Anti-Parkinson Mucuna spp.Digitoxin Cardiotonic Digitalis purpureaEphedrine Antihistamine Ephedra sinicaGalanthamine Cholinesterase inhibitor Lycoris squamigeraKawain Tranquilizer Piper methysticumLapachol Anti-cancer, anti-tumor Tabebuia spp.Ouabain Cardiotonic Strophanthus gratusQuinine Anti-malarial Cinchona ledgerianaSalicin Analgesic Salix albaTaxol Anti-tumor Podophyllum peltatumVasicine Cerebral stimulant Vinca minorVincristine Anti-leukemic agent Catharanthus roseus_________________________________________________________________

Approximately 15% of all current pharmaceuticals in developed countries are derived solely from plants (85% in undeveloped countries).

Alkaloids derived from plants

AtropineCaffeine

Cocaine

CodeineMorphine

Nicotine

Scopolamine Thebaine

Atropine and scopolamineAtropine and scopolamine

7

Cure for malaria?Cure for malaria?

Artemisia annua

artemisinin

2b. CO2b. CO22, plants and narcotics., plants and narcotics.

Effects unknown Growth increases. Anecdotal evidence

Papaver setigerum DC.Papaver setigerum DC.(Wild poppy)(Wild poppy)

Quantify growth and alkaloid production to carbon dioxide

300 ppm ~1950

400 ppm Current

500 ppm ~2050

600 ppm ~2090

Papaver setigerumA

bove

gro

und

biom

ass

at m

atur

ity (g

)

0

5

10

15

20

25

Leaf

are

a at

mat

urity

(cm

2 )

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

300 400 500 600

CO2 concentration (µmol mol-1)

P. setigerum is sensitive to even small (100 ppm) increases in carbon dioxide.

Greatest relative stimulation has occurred with recent (last few decades) CO2 increase.

Averages P-value

Variable 300 400 500 600 CO2 Effect____________________________________________________________

Capsule No. 14.6 29.4 32.9 52.1 ***

Capsule Wt. (g) 1.44 2.47 3.55 4.30 ***

Latex (mg) 97 198 259 363 ***

Morphine (%) 2.20 2.34 2.56 2.67 0.06

Concentration of other alkaloids did not increase with increasing CO2.

Alk

aloi

d pr

oduc

tion

(mg

per p

lant

)

0

5

10

15

CO2 concentration (µmol mol-1)300 400 500 600

0

10

20

30

40

300 400 500 600

r2 = 0.98r2 = 0.81

r2 = 0.99

r2 = 0.95

A. Morphine B. Codeine

C. Papaverine D. Noscapine

a

b

c

d

a

b

b

c

a

a

b

c

a

bb

c

3-4 x increase in alkaloid production in wild poppy with recent and projected CO2 increases. Accepted in Climatic Change

8

Nicotine production

Nic

otin

e pe

r pla

nt (m

g)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Col 1 vs Col 2 Plot 1 RegrCol 1 vs Col 4 Plot 2 RegrCol 1 vs Col 6 Plot 3 Regr

Days after sowing (DAS)

25 30 35 40 45 50 550

20

40

60

80

100

120

294 µatm.378 µatm.690 µatm.

A.

B.

Nicotine Concentration

294 ppm 4.7 µg g-1

378 ppm 4.4 µg g-1

690 ppm 3.6 µg g-1

3. CO3. CO22, plants and disease vectors, plants and disease vectorsplants are not vectors per se, but:plants are not vectors per se, but:

CO2 / temperature

Hanta virus Nectar & pollen

4. CO4. CO22, plants and pesticide usage., plants and pesticide usage.

As carbon dioxide increases, glyphosate efficacy is reduced

Why can’t we just control these weeds?

Ambient CO2 Future CO2

Canada thistle: Best of the worst.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Shoot Root

2000 2001

*

*

*a

b

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.02003

Shoot ShootRoot Root

*

*

b

a

Elev

ated

/ A

mbi

ent

Canada Thistle

3 years of field trials at +250 ppm above ambient.

A synopsis of COA synopsis of CO22 impacts on herbicide efficacyimpacts on herbicide efficacy

Gro

wth

rate

(g /

day)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Can

ada

this

tle

Can

ada

this

tle1

Lam

bsqu

arte

rs (d

eath

)

Red

-roo

t pig

wee

d (d

eath

)

Qua

ckgr

ass

(dea

th)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Can

ada

this

tle

Can

ada

this

tle1

Lam

bsqu

arte

rs

Red

-roo

t pig

wee

d Qua

ckgr

ass

A.

B.

Efficacy is reduced in a number of studies. The basis for the reduction isnot entirely known. However, if more pesticides are needed to kill weeds, thenmore trace chemicals are likely in theenvironment.

Climate change, plants and public healthClimate change, plants and public health

Direct EffectsDirect EffectsAllergiesAllergiesContact dermatitisContact dermatitisToxicologyToxicology

Indirect EffectsIndirect EffectsNutrition/Food SupplyNutrition/Food SupplyMedicine / NarcoticsMedicine / NarcoticsSpread of disease vectorsSpread of disease vectorsIncreased pesticide use.Increased pesticide use.

9

Research and Education.

Investment in AgriculturalResearch, United States.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2005 2006 2007 2008

ARSby year

Highlights:

1999, 10 scientists, own lab

2008, National Program onclimate change eliminated.

2009, 3 scientists, no lab, no national program. 52, 60, 61.