Climate Change Biology

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Climate Change Biology

Lee Hannah

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San Francisco • Singapore • Sydney • Tokyo Academic Press is an imprint of Elsevier

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Hannah , Lee Jay. Climate change biology / Lee Hannah. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-12-374182-0 1 . Climatic changes. 2. Natural resources. 3. Environmental impact analysis. 4. Protected areas. I. Title. QC981 .8.C5H2535 2011 577 .2 ’ 2—dc22 2010018418

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ISBN : 978-0-12-374182-0

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ............................................................................. xi

Section 1 Introduction

CHAPTER 1 A New Discipline: Climate Change Biology .................... 3 A Greenhouse Planet .................................................................... 4 Boundaries of Life ......................................................................... 7 Shifting Interactions ..................................................................... 8 Chemistry of Change .................................................................... 9 Linkages Back to Climate ............................................................. 9 Climate Change Biology ............................................................. 10

CHAPTER 2 The Climate System and Climate Change ..................... 13 The Climate System .................................................................... 13 Evolution of the Earth ’ s Climate ................................................ 16 Natural Drivers of Change .......................................................... 19 Major Features of Present Climate ............................................ 24 Stable States of the System ........................................................ 28 Human -Driven Change: Rising CO 2 .......................................... 30 Rapid Climate Change ................................................................ 34 Change and the Global Carbon Cycle ....................................... 39 Modeling the Climate System .................................................... 41 Regional Climate Models ............................................................ 45 Commonly Used GCMs ............................................................... 48 Emissions Scenarios ................................................................... 50 GCM Outputs .............................................................................. 50 Biological Assessments with Downscaled Data ...................... 52 Further Reading .......................................................................... 52

Section 2 The Impacts of Human Induced Climate Change

CHAPTER 3 Species Range Shifts ....................................................... 55 First Sign of Change: Coral Bleaching ...................................... 56

Contents

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Acidifi cation — The CO 2 Double Whammy ................................ 59 First Changes on Land ............................................................... 60 Mounting Evidence of Range Shifts .......................................... 62 Patterns within the Patterns ...................................................... 71 Extinctions ................................................................................... 72 Freshwater Changes .................................................................. 75 Pests and Pathogens ................................................................... 76 Further Reading .......................................................................... 79

CHAPTER 4 Phenology: Changes in Timing of Biological Events Due to Climate Change ..................... 81 Arrival of Spring .......................................................................... 83 Freshwater Systems ................................................................... 87 Spring Ahead, Fall Behind ......................................................... 89 Tropical Forest Phenology .......................................................... 89 Marine Systems ........................................................................... 91 Mechanisms : Temperature and Photoperiod ........................... 93 Life Cycles of Insect Herbivores ................................................ 94 Timing Mismatches Between Species ...................................... 97 Further Reading ........................................................................ 100

CHAPTER 5 Ecosystem Change ........................................................ 101 Tropical Ecosystem Changes ................................................... 101 Cloud Forests ............................................................................ 103 Temperate Ecosystem Change ................................................ 107 High Mountain Ecosystems ..................................................... 111 Glacier and Snowpack-Dependent Ecosystems ..................... 113 Polar and Marine Systems ........................................................ 116 Polar Food Webs: Changes in the Southern Ocean ............... 120 Tropical Marine Systems .......................................................... 120 Pelagic Marine Systems ............................................................ 123 Changes in Ocean Chemistry .................................................. 125 Ecosystem Feedbacks to Climate System ............................... 126 Further Reading ........................................................................ 130

Section 3 Lessons from the Past

CHAPTER 6 Past Terrestrial Response ............................................. 133 Scope of Change ........................................................................ 133 The Earth Moves ....................................................................... 134 Climate Runs Through It .......................................................... 136 Fast and Far: The Record of the Ice Ages .............................. 140 Ice Racing in North America and Europe ............................... 141

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Out of Land: The Southern Temperate Response .................. 144 North Meets South .................................................................... 145 Rapid Change: The Younger Dryas ......................................... 148 Tropical Responses ................................................................... 150 Milankovitch Forcing in the Biological Record ...................... 154 Lessons of Past Change ........................................................... 155 Further Reading ........................................................................ 155

CHAPTER 7 Past Marine Ecosystem Changes ................................. 157 Effects of Temperature Change ............................................... 157 Effects of Sea Level Change ..................................................... 161 Changes in Ocean Circulation ................................................. 162 Changes in Ocean Chemistry .................................................. 166 Further Reading ........................................................................ 171

CHAPTER 8 Past Freshwater Changes ............................................. 173 Lakes as Windows to Past Climate ......................................... 174 Types of Freshwater Alteration with Climate ........................ 179 Freshwater Biotas, Habitats, and Food Chains ...................... 183 Deep Time: Pace of Evolution and Species Accumulation .... 184 Recent-Time (Tertiary and Pleistocene) Records of Change .................................................................... 186 Fast Forward ............................................................................. 188 Further Reading ........................................................................ 188

CHAPTER 9 Extinctions ...................................................................... 189 The Five Major Mass Extinctions ............................................ 189 Causes of Extinction Events .................................................... 193 Climate as the Common Factor in Major Extinctions ............ 194 Impacts and Climate ................................................................. 195 Does Climate Change Always Cause Extinction? .................. 196 Climate and Extinctions in Deep Time .................................... 196 The Past 100 Million Years ....................................................... 198 The Past 2 Million Years: Extinction at the Dawn of the Ice Ages and the Pleistocene Extinctions ............................... 201 The Missing Ice Age Extinctions ............................................. 204 Patterns in the Losses .............................................................. 204 Further Reading ........................................................................ 205

Section 4 Looking to the Future

CHAPTER 10 Insights from Experimentation ..................................... 209 Theory ........................................................................................ 209 Laboratory and Greenhouse Experiments .............................. 214

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Field Experiments ..................................................................... 220 Results of Whole-Vegetation Experiments ............................. 224 Results of Field CO 2 Experiments ........................................... 226 Arctic Experiments ................................................................... 229 Further Reading ........................................................................ 231

CHAPTER 11 Modeling Species and Ecosystem Response ............... 233 Types of Models ........................................................................ 235 Dynamic Global Vegetation Models ........................................ 239 Species Distribution Models .................................................... 243 Gap Models ................................................................................ 252 Modeling Aquatic Systems ...................................................... 253 Earth System Models ................................................................ 258 Further Reading ........................................................................ 259

CHAPTER 12 Estimating Extinction Risk from Climate Change ...... 261

Evidence from the Past ............................................................. 263 Estimates from Species Distribution Modeling ...................... 265 Species – Area Relationship ....................................................... 267 A Question of Dispersal ............................................................ 268 The Problem with Endemics .................................................... 269 Checking the Estimates ........................................................... 269 Not Just About Polar Bears Anymore ..................................... 270 Are a Million Species at Risk? .................................................. 272 Why the Future may not be Like the Past .............................. 274 Further Reading ........................................................................ 275

Section 5 Implications for Conservation

CHAPTER 13 Adaptation of Conservation Strategies ........................ 279 Early Concepts of Protected Areas and Climate Change ...... 280 Protected Area Planning .......................................................... 284 Planning for Persistence ........................................................... 286 Resistance Resilience ............................................................... 289 Protected Area Management ................................................... 291 Marine Protected Areas ............................................................ 294 Protected Areas for Climate Change ....................................... 300 Further Reading ........................................................................ 301

CHAPTER 14 Connectivity and Landscape Management ................. 303 Area -Demanding Species ......................................................... 304 Migratory Species ..................................................................... 308 Species Range Shifts ................................................................. 310

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Planning for Connectivity ......................................................... 311 Managing Connectivity in Human-Dominated Landscapes .... 314 Regional Coordination .............................................................. 315 Monitoring ................................................................................. 316 Further Reading ........................................................................ 317

CHAPTER 15 Species Management .................................................... 319 Threatened Species .................................................................. 319 Climate Change Impacts on Threatened Species .................. 322 Species Threatened by Climate Change ................................. 322 Assessing Species Threatened by Climate Change .............. 324 An Iconic Example .................................................................... 326 Managing Species Threatened by Climate Change ............... 328 Resources for the Job ............................................................... 335 Further Reading ........................................................................ 336

Section 6 Finding Solutions: International Policy and Action

CHAPTER 16 Mitigation: Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Sinks, and Solutions ....................................................... 339 Climate Policy ............................................................................ 339 Stabilizing Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentrations ... 341 Practical Steps for the Next 50 Years ...................................... 342 Energy Effi ciency ...................................................................... 344 Renewable Energy Sources ...................................................... 344 Nuclear Power ........................................................................... 348 The End of Oil ............................................................................ 350 Putting the Pieces Together ..................................................... 355 Further Reading ........................................................................ 356

CHAPTER 17 Extinction Risk from Climate Change Solutions ......... 357 Wedges Beyond 50 Years ......................................................... 357 Past Experience ......................................................................... 358 Land use Requirements of Alternate Energy ......................... 359 Solar ............................................................................................ 360 Wind ........................................................................................... 361 Biofuels ...................................................................................... 363 Hydropower , Tidal Power, and Geothermal Power ............... 365 Nuclear Power ........................................................................... 366 Carbon Sequestration ............................................................... 366 Land use Requirements of Free Air Sequestration Technologies Systems .............................................................. 368

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Geoengineering ......................................................................... 368 Estimating Extinction Risk ....................................................... 369 Short-Term Wedges and Long-Term Pathways ..................... 371 Further Reading ........................................................................ 371

CHAPTER 18 Assessing Risks, Designing Solutions ......................... 373 Impacts , Risks, and Adaptation ............................................... 373 The Assessment Process .......................................................... 373 Domain and Grain ..................................................................... 374 Biological Assessment .............................................................. 375 Stand -Alone Biological Assessment ........................................ 377 Design of Adaptation Solutions ............................................... 378 Two Examples ........................................................................... 379 And Do It Again ........................................................................ 381

REFERENCES .......................................................................................... 383

INDEX ...................................................................................................... 393

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Karoleen DeCastro and Monica Pessino at Ocean o ’ Graphics UCSB made the original fi gures for this book come to life. Thanks to Patrick Roehrdanz and Trinidad Pizano for their long hours tracking down the reproduced fi g-ures. Lynn Scarlett graciously contributed insights on her experiences during the endangered species listing for polar bears. Thanks to Andy Richford for seeing the importance of the subject and believing in the project from the beginning. Finally, my sincere appreciation to my colleagues at Conservation International for their advice, encouragement, and belief in the importance of training a new generation of conservation professionals in an era of change.

Acknowledgments

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