Stanislav Kim

UNDP

Climate Change and Variability in Central

Asia – Impacts on Water Resources and

Security

1 1

Main Impacts of Climate Change in Central Asia

Source: Climate Change in Central Asia, A visual synthesis, Swiss Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN), 2009

2

Long-Term Climate Change

Current Climate Variability,

Extreme Weather Events and

Natural Disasters

• heavy rains and floodings

•Increased frequency of extreme

whether conditions: heat/cold wavers,

(sand) storms, droughts

•Increased risk of climate-related

natural disasters, e.g. GLOFs,

mudflows, flash-floods

•Ecosystem disturbance/degradation

resulting extreme events

• Climate aridisation

• Desertification

• Deforestation

• Degradation of glaciers and permafrost

• Redistribution of precipitation (spatial,

temporal, rain instead of snow)

• Changing of hydrograph patterns (spatial,

temporal)

• Ecosystem degradation and loss of

biodiversity

• Evapotranspiration and evaporation

• Sea level change

3

4

Climate variability and climate change

Source: Climate related disasters compared to geophysical disasters.

http://ec.europa.eu/development/icenter/B2_cred_20090427.pdf

Cyclic effect or global warming?

Frequency of natural hazards

(Central & Eastern Europe and Central Asia)

5

Source: World Bank.2009. Adapting to climate change in Europe and Central Asia Report. Washington DC. WB

Ranking of countries in accordance with

climate change vulnerability index

Tj Uz

Kg Tm

Kz

6 6

Pamir, September 2012

7

In near future – intensive glacier

degradation - floods

In distant future – desertification and

degradation of water bodies

8

Ranking of countries in accordance with

adaptation to climate change index

Source: World Bank.2009. Adapting to climate change in Europe and Central Asia Report. Washington DC. WB

Tm

Tj

Uz

Kg Kz

9

Multiplicative Effect of Climate Change • 1st order factors:

–Increased temperature and GHG emissions/greenhouse effect

• impacts/2nd order factors:

– changed precipitation and hydrograph patterns, glacier

degradation, floods/droughts, ecosystem degradation,

disturbed ground/surface balance, climate aridisation,

deforestation, sand storms, heat/cold waves, more frequent

natural disasters

• impacts/3rd order factors:

– Food security, economic security energy supply, drinking

water supply, hygiene/sanitation, vulnerability/exposure to

risks of disasters

Compound Risks

10 10

Water Scarcity Challenge in CA – Between Inefficiency and Climate Change

11

UNDP CA-CRM: Regional partnership

Regional Project

Национальные проекты

Understand the CC implications;

improve the existing knowledge;

enhance the methodological and

material and technical base; expand

the number of CC specialists

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Uzbekistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

The system of preventive measures

to increase resilience of population

and reduce climate risks

National projects

12

Activities at the Regional level

1. Strengthened technical capacity for climate risk management

at the regional level

2. Establishment of a regional technical web-based platform for CRM

to exchange data and information and share the experience

3. Improving knowledge on the glaciers degradation in

Central Asia

13

National Climate Change Adaptation Strategies • Kazakhstan National Climate Change Adaptation Concept (2010)

Approved in 2011 by the National Sustainable Development Council

Will be integrated within the National Green Economy Strategy

CRM geographic hot-spots identified

• Kyrgyzstan National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (in progress, draft to be

consulted)

UNDP supports 3 themes: Disaster risk management, Economic assessment

of DRM, Livestock farming

• Turkmenistan National Climate Change Strategy (2011)

Adaptation (including DRR) and Mitigation

Endorsed by the President

• Tajikistan – support to PPCR

• Uzbekistan – development of recommendations, may be more.

14

A Series of Studies • “Central Asia Glaciers Study - Current

state of knowledge and

recommendations” (UNEP/GRID

Europe, 2010)

• Brochure “The Glaciers of Central

Asia: A Disappearing Resource”

• Analytical Report “State and

Development Needs for Glaciosphere

Monitoring in Central Asia” (Zoï

Environment, 2010)

• Digitisation and publishing of

Shetinnikov’s catalogue of Pamir and

Hissaro-Alay glaciers

15

Field work and Conference(s)

• Glaciological Expedition to the

Garmo and Skogach Glaciers (the

Obikhingou River basin, Tajikistan,

July 2011)

• 1st International glaciological Expedition to the upper

stretches of the Vakhsh and Pyanj rivers (Tajikistan,

August 2011)

• International Conferences „MOUNTAIN HAZARDS 2011“

organized (Dushanbe, 19-21 September 2011) and

„MOUNTAIN HAZARDS 2013“

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CA Climate Risk Assessment and Country Profiles

• A cutting edge thematic focus:

CRM = DRR + CC Adaptation

DRR: Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability / Capacity

CCA: Vulnerability = ƒ (Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity)

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• CRA Methodological guide -

step by step

• Distinguishes approaches

based on data availability

(climatological and disaster)

• Vulnerability assessment –

based on 6 capitals –

Human, Financial, Social,

Natural, Political, Physical

• Mapping of assessment

results – GIS

• Regional Risk Assessment

and National Climate Risk

Profiles

• Methodology to be

completed

• 2014 – Regional CRA and 5

National CRM Profiles

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CA-CRM National Projects:

1. Strengthening

institutional and

technical capacities for

CRM

2. Demonstration of

CRM approaches at

local level

3. Sharing

experience in the

CRM area

Tajikistan

Uzbekistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan Water use efficiency (Almaty region)

Pasture livestock management (Suusamir

Valley)

Agroforestry (Hissar Range spurs )

Kyrgyzstan

More effective risk assessment and information

Exchange: high-mountains agriculture (Nohur),

oases irrigation (Sakar Chaga) and desert

livestock management (Erbent)

Droughts management (Kashkadarya

catchment)

Min

imis

ati

on

of

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ga

tive

im

pa

cts

of

clim

ate

-rela

ted

natu

ral

dis

aste

rs

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Partnerships • UNDP Country Offices in all 5 countries

• UNDP DRMP, IWRM, CACILM, GEF SGP, etc.

• WMO/North-Eurasian Climate Centre

• ENVSEC (e.g. UNEP, UNDP, OSCE, NATO, etc.)

• UNEP/GRID Europe

• UNESCO

• Institute of Geography/Regional Centre for Glacier

Monitoring in Almaty

• Climate & Development Knowledge Network

(CDKN)

• Geological Survey of Finland (GTK)

• Czech Trust Fund (CTF)

• PPCR

• GIZ, USAID, SDC, …

• German Research Centre for GeoSciences (GFZ)

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Thank you!