Climate change and political response: an introduction

Hrvatska i zasitita klime: Kako ispuniti obveze prema Kyotskom protokolu Arcotel Allegra Zagrebu Hrvatska

Pim Kieskamp Zagreb, listopada 30-31 2007

CO2 concentration trend

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1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000

years

CO

2 co

ncen

trat

ion

(ppm

) Law Dome Ice Core Data

2CO2 Concentration in Ice Core Samples and Projections for Next 100 Years

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Years Before Present(B.P. -- 1950)

CO 2

Con

cent

ratio

n(p

pmv)

Vostok RecordIPCC IS92a ScenarioLaw Dome RecordMauna Loa Record

Projected2100

0100,000200,000300,000400,000

Current

2007

CO2 Emission trend

0

1000

2000

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4000

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6000

7000

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

CO

2 em

issi

ons

(Mt-C

/yea

r) Cement ProductionGas FlairingGasOilCoal

T and CO2 concentrations the last 400.000 years

-12-10-8-6-4-2024

050.000100.000150.000200.000250.000300.000350.000400.000450.000

Tem

pera

ture

cha

nge

from

pre

sent

C

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050.000100.000150.000200.000250.000300.000350.000400.000450.000

years before present (present =1950)

CO

2 co

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trat

ion

(ppm

)

Vostoc ice core data

The Greenhouse effect

Sources of GHGs

Gas Formula Sources

Carbon Dioxide CO2 • fossil fuel combustion, • gas flaring,• cement production, • land use change

Methane CH4 • fossil fuel• rice paddies• waste dumps• livestock

Nitrous oxide N2O • fertilizer• industrial process (nylon)• combustion

CFC-12 CCl2F2 • liquid coolants

HCFC-22 CHClF2 • production of aluminum

Sulpher hexa-fluoride

SF6 • dielectric fluid

Main greenhouse gases and characteristics

Greenhouse gases

formula Pre-industrial concentration

1995 concentration

Global warming

potential (TH 100 years)

Carbon dioxide CO2

CH4

N2O

CCl2F2

CHClF2

CF4

278 ppm

SF6

1

Methane 700 ppb

360 ppm

1721 ppb

315 ppb

CFC-12 0 0.5 ppb 6200-7100

HCFC-22 0 0.1 ppb 1300-1400

Perfluoro-methane

0 0.07 ppb 6500

23

Nitrous oxide 275 ppb 296

Sulfur hexa-fluoride

0.03 ppb0 23900

Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time

100 0.074±0.01850 0.128±0.026

Warmest 12 years:1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000

Period Rate

Years °/decade

IPCC AR4

Projected CO2 emissions

Projected CO2 concentrations

Projected temperature change

Projected sea level rise

• So, even with the best-case scenario (with a lot of regulations and incentives by governments) when the CO2 emissions will decrease, the temperature will still go up and the sea level will still rise.

• It can be concluded from these scenarios that climate will change. In some scenarios it will be quite drastic, be still - do we need to care?

• What might potential impacts look like? Are we going to suffer?

Potential impacts

Do We See Effects Happening Now?

• Arctic sea ice has shrunk by over 20 percent since 1978 (Most recent: 7.8 % per decade since 1953 according to National Snow and Ice Center in Boulder)

• Larsen B ice shelf in Antarctica lost over 3000 square miles in 2002

• Glaciers are receding in North America, South America, Africa, Europe, and Asia

• Methane, powerful GHG, rapidly releasing from thawing tundraat 5 times expected rate

• Sea levels are rising and expected to increase up to 23 inches without melting of polar ice sheets

• Increasingly strong storms and hurricanes

Economic Impacts• Stern report just released in UK predicts global economy will

shrink by 20%• Will cost 1% GDP per year to fix• Developing nations in southern latitudes will take hardest hit• Estimates 500 million refugees from coastal areas of China and

South Asia

2000 2020

• In order to minimize the impacts and associated costs of the human induced change in climate we have to act now.

• Science of climate change is rapidly developing now, but what about real active measures, what about the policy makers?

Science and policy

International Policy Fora

Toronto Conf. (20% reductions)

Earth Summit (’00 ‘target’) (’92)

Scientific Fora

IPCC established (’88)

InteractionsCOP 1: Berlin Mandate

COP 3: Kyoto Protocol adopted

1st Assessment Report (’90)

2nd Assessment Report (’95)

3rd Assessment Report (TAR)

(’97)

(’88)

(’01)

(’95)

COP 6: Rules for Kyoto regime(’00)Sink Special ReportScenario Sp. Report (’00)

(’94)

Tech. Transfer Sp. ReportCOP 4: Buenos Aires Plan of Action

(’98)

UNFCCC adopted ⇒Entry into Force

COP 7: Kyoto mechanism accepted

4rd Assessment Report (2007)COP 1: Kyoto protocol enters into force

Development of international treaties

2010200520001995199019851980197519701965

RecognitionIssue RaisedConsensus

AdoptionEntry into Force

Convention

AdoptionEntry into ForceProtocols

Amendment

Protocols by Pollutant

Montreal Protocol

UNFCCC

Noordwijk

Toronto Conference

Kyoto Protocol

Climate ChangeOzone DepletionAcid Rain

COP 6Marrakech

Science

Geneva ConventionVienna Convention

INC

KP enters into forceCoP/MoP 1

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

– May 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change adopted

– June 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) (Rio Earth Summit) 154 nations ratified the FCCC

– Currently 192 instruments of ratification have been received

UNFCCC:Objectives

– Protect the climate...for present and future generations... on the basis of equity and the common but differentiated responsibility of countries and respective capabilities.

– industrialized countries + economies in transition to stabilize 1990 levels of emissions by early next century.

1.industrialized countries + economies in transition are given in Annex I of the convention: Annex I countries

2.Developing countries: Non-annex I countries; no reduction commitments

UNFCCC:Annex I countries at time of ratification

Austria Greece Poland a/

Belarus a/ Hungary a/ Portugal

Belgium Iceland Romania a/

Bulgaria a/ Ireland Russian Federation a/

Canada Italy Spain

Czechoslovakia a/ Japan Sweden

Denmark Latvia a/ Switzerland

European Economic Community Lithuania a/ Turkey

Estonia a/ Luxembourg Australia

Finland Netherlands Ukraine a/

France New Zealand United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland

Germany Norway United States of America

a/ Countries that are undergoing the process of transition to a market economy

UNFCCC:Articles

1. Introduction on basic definitions principles

2. Commitments relating to sources and sinks: scientific cooperation, public information education;financial resources and technology transfer

3. Institutional and procedural mechanisms

4. Final clauses on protocols and annexes, ratification, entering into force

• Convention consists of 26 Articles and has more or less 4 parts:

UNFCCC:Articles - commitments

• Differences in obligations between developing and developed countries:– Sources and sinks for parties listed in Annex I (OECD member

states and countries with “economies in transition” (former Eastern bloc))

– Financial resources for parties listed in Annex II (OECD countries)

UNFCCC:Articles - commitments on sources and sinks

• Three basic requirements:– Each parties must adopt national policies and measures to reduce

GHG emissions– Reporting for Annex I parties more stringent– Annex I should coordinate relevant economic and administrative

instruments/identify and periodically review policies and practices

UNFCCC:Articles - commitments on financial resources and technology transfer

• Developed countries will provide new and additional resources

• Adaptation: “developed countries shall assist CD parties that are particular vulnerable to the adverse effect of climate in meeting costs to adapt”

• Technology transfer: “developed countries to take all practicable steps to promote, facilitate and finance, and transfer of environmentally sound technologies”

UNFCCC:Articles - proposed mechanism

• The INC suggested that counties could implement their emission limitations jointly:

a) On regional level (“umbrella” or “bubble”)b) Among countries subjected to specific quantitative commitments

(developed countries)c) On general basis among developed and developing states

(Proposed by Norway, should be most economically efficient, should have baseline)

• The convention endorsed the concept of ‘Joint Implementation’ and would at its first session take decisions regarding JI

UNFCCC:Articles - targets and timetables

• Quasi target was set: developed countries are to limit emissions and enhance sinks with the aim of returning to 1990 levels (not stabilize)

• Developed countries recognize that a return by the year 2000 to earlier levels would contribute to a modification of longer-terms trends.

UNFCCC:Articles – Institutional bodies

• Conference of Parties - CoP: supreme decision-making body of the Convention

• Secretariat: administrative functions, arrange for session, facilitate assistance to parties etc

• Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice - SBSTA

• Subsidiary Body for Implementation - SBI

• Global Environmental Facility – GEF: interim financial mechanism (Art 11-21(3))

UNFCCCEntry-into-force

• “Convention will enter into force on the ninetieth day after the date of the fiftieth instrument of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession”

• Translation:“90 days after the 50th countries ratified the convention it willenter into force”

Kyoto Protocol

• Adopted at COP3 in December 1997• 28 Articles• Addresses specific:

– policies & measures (Art. 2)– greenhouse gases & sectors (Annex A)– countries, compliance dates, quantities

(Art. 3/Annex B)

Protocol within the Convention

•Conform the nature of the framework the protocol goes beyond theconvention, e.g.:

– UNFCCC: return to 1990 levels– Kyoto protocol: 5% reduction from 1990 levels outlining

responsibilities and deadlines– Kyoto: legally binding

Kyoto Protocol:Elements (I)

• All countries committed to national programmes to address GHG emissions (NAPA)

• Kyoto maintains ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’

• 40 industrialized countries have defined targets• Industrialized countries to provide ‘new & additional financial resources’

and facilitate technology transfer and capacity building• Annex I Parties, the industrialized countries who have historically

contributed the most to climate change, with quantified targets for reducing GHG emission;

• non-Annex I Parties, primarily the developing countries, without any legally binding and quantified targets for reducing their GHG emissions;

• Transition economies in Eastern Europe and CIS fall under both categories:

• New EU member states, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Russia, Ukraine and Belarus – Annex I;• Central Asia, Caucasus, Moldova and Western Balkan countries – non-Annex I.

Kyoto Protocol:Elements (II)

• Provides implementation mechanisms– domestic policies– cooperation between countries– flexibility in measuring emissions reductions

• Collective emission reduction of six GHGs (“basket”), by at least 5% of 1990 levels by 2008-2012

• CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC, PFC and SF6 • Reductions translated into ‘CO2 equivalents’ to produce single

figure

Kyoto Protocol:Elements (III)

• Emissions will be calculated as an average over 5 years - 2008-2012 (first commitment period)

• Key gases CO2, CH4, and N2O measured against 1990 baseline (with some exceptions)

• Gases as HFCs, PFCs and SF6 measured against either 1990 or 1995 baseline

• Reduction in ‘excess’ of targets during first reporting period can be ‘banked’ against subsequent periods

Kyoto protocol Roadmap

1993 Bonn Activities implemented Jointly AIJ : pilot program (oa USA, Netherlands) period 1995-2000

1997 Kyoto Agreement on protocol2001 Marakesh: Modalities and Procedures for flexible

mechanisms agreed2005:Russia ratifies KP. Kyoto Protocol entered into force on 16

February 2005.2005 Montreal CoP 12007 Bali Road map to second commitment period???

Kyoto Protocol:Mechanisms and measures

• Protocol specifies a wide range of measures:– Domestic policies and measures, including how to enhance

policy cooperation and coordination (Art. 2)– Cooperative mechanisms

1.Emissions Trading (Art. 17)– Annex I parties– Macro level

2.Joint Implementation (Art. 6)– Annex I parties– Project based

3.Clean Development Mechanism (Art. 12)– Annex I and non-Annex I parties– Project based

Kyoto Protocol:Mechanisms and measures (cont.)

Present day

2012

1990 level

Assigned Amounts

Domestic Actions

Joint Implementation

Emission TradingAnnex IEmission Trading

Clean Development Mechanism

Domestic Actions

- 5%

Climate Change 1995 – The Second Assessment of the (IPCC):

“The balance of evidence suggestsa discernible human influence on global climate.”

Climate Change 2000 – The Third Assessment Report of the IPCC:

“Most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.”

“Climate Change – The IPCC Scientific Assessment (1990):The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect

from observations is not likely for a decade or more.”

Climate Change 2007 – The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC:

Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperaturessince the mid-20th century is very likely due to theobserved increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas

concentrations.”

Thank you !

p.kieskamp@senternovem.nl