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Climate Change and Malaysia
Numerical Weather Prediction Division
Malaysian Meteorological Department
Global Warming
Figure 1: Global Averaged Surface Temperature (IPCC AR4 WG1: Physical Science Basis)
Twelve of the thirteen years in the period (1995-2007) rank among the top 12 warmest years in the observation record
Global temperatures have risen by about 0.74 ºC since the beginning of the 20th century
What causes weather & climate?What causes weather & climate?
Differential Differential heating of heating of the earth’s the earth’s surfacesurface
INSOLATION [INcoming SOLAR radiATION
Natural Causes of Climate Variation
Milankovitch Cycles
Variation in Internal Atmospheric Cycles (El Nino Northern Atlantic Oscillation Indian Ocean dipole etc)
Variation in Oceanic Circulations
Volcanic Eruptions
Anthropogenic Causes of Climate Variation
Anthropogenic Activities Emissions of greenhouse gases & aerosols
• Change in land-use
• Deforestation
Malaysia: Present Climate
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
3200
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
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1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
YEAR
PREC
IPIT
ATI
ON
( m
m )
LANGKAWI
1500
1700
1900
2100
2300
2500
2700
2900
1969
1971
1973
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1977
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1981
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2005
2007
YEAR
PR
EC
IPIT
AT
ION
( m
m )
BUTTERWORTH
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
YEAR
PRE
CIP
ITA
TIO
N (m
m)
PETALING JAYA
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
3200
3400
3600
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
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1997
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2001
2003
2005
2007
YEAR
PR
EC
IPIT
AT
ION
( m
m )
SUBANG
WEST PENINSULAR MALAYSIA (ANNUALPRECIPITATION)
1400
1900
2400
2900
3400
3900
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
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1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
YEAR
PR
EC
IPIT
AT
ION
( m
m )
KOTA BARU
16001800200022002400260028003000320034003600
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
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1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
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2004
2005
2006
2007
YEAR
PREC
IPIT
ATI
ON
( m
m )
KUALA TRENGGANU
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1951
1953
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1957
1959
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1963
1965
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1971
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1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
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1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
YEAR
PR
EC
IPIT
AT
ION
( m
m )
KUANTAN
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
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1999
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2003
2005
2007
YEAR
PR
EC
IPIT
AT
ION
( m
m )
MERSING
EAST PENINSULAR MALAYSIA (ANNUAL PRECIPITATION)
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
YEAR
PR
EC
IPIT
AT
ION
( m
m )
KOTA KINABALU
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
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1965
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1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
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1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
YEAR
PR
EC
IPIT
AT
ION
( m
m )
SANDAKAN
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
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1967
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1971
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1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
YEAR
PR
EC
IPIT
AT
ION
( m
m )
KUCHING
20002200
24002600
28003000
32003400
36003800
4000
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
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1981
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2001
2003
2005
2007
YEAR
PR
EC
IPIT
AT
ION
( m
m )
MIRI
EAST MALAYSIA (ANNUAL PRECIPITATION)
26.9
27.2
27.5
27.8
28.1
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
BUTTERWORTH
26.0
26.3
26.6
26.9
27.2
27.5
27.8
28.1
28.4
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
PETALING JAYA
26.0
26.3
26.6
26.9
27.2
27.5
27.8
28.1
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
KOTA BARU
25.3
25.6
25.9
26.2
26.5
26.8
27.1
27.4
27.7
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
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90
19
92
19
94
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96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
KUANTAN
WEST MALAYSIA (MEAN TEMPERATURE)
26.1
26.4
26.7
27.0
27.3
27.6
27.9
28.2
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
KOTA KINABALU
26.3
26.6
26.9
27.2
27.5
27.8
28.1
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
SANDAKAN
25.6
25.9
26.2
26.5
26.8
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
KUCHING
26.0
26.3
26.6
26.9
27.2
27.5
27.8
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
MIRI
EAST MALAYSIA (MEAN TEMPERATURE)
ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURE
25.0
25.3
25.6
25.9
26.2
26.5
26.8
27.1
27.4
27.7
28.0
28.3
28.6
28.9
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
YEAR
TE
MP
ER
AT
UR
E (
°C)
KUCHING KO TA KINABALU KUANTAN PETALING JAYA
1972
1997
19911982
1987
1977
Global Climate Simulations
Different Emission Scenarios
Projected global average temperature changes for the early and late 21st century relative to the period 1980 – 1999, as calculated by multi-model averages for a low (B1), a medium (A1B) and a high SRES scenario for the decades 2020-2039 (left) and 2090-2099 (right). (IPCC, 2007)
Projected global average temperature changes for the early and late 21st century relative to the period 1980 – 1999, as calculated by multi-model averages for a low (B1), a medium (A1B) and a high SRES scenario for the decades 2020-2039 (left) and 2090-2099 (right). (IPCC, 2007)
Annual Rainfall Changes (%): Nine GCMs Ensemble
Based upon 9 Global Climate Model Ensemble Projection, Temperature Increase for
Peninsular Malaysia ~ 2.8°C East Malaysia ~ 2.6 °C
Rainfall Variation (%) for Malaysia based upon 9 Global Climate Model Ensemble Projection
Regional Climate Simulations
• Global Circulation Models (GCM) lack regional detail that impact assessment on climate change require.
• A Regional Climate Model (RCM) adds small-scale detailed information of future climate change to the large-scale projections of a GCM. Coarse resolution information from a GCM is used to develop temporally and spatially fine scale information.
• In the Malaysian Meteorological Department, the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) is being used.
PRECIS resolution 0.44° x 0.44°
HadCM3 resolution 2.5° x 3.75°
Orographic Resolution
PRECIS captures important regional
information on summer monsoon rainfall missing
in its parent GCM simulations
PRECIS Simulations of Present Climate (1961-1990)Mean Annual Cycles of SEA Rainfall and Temperature
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months
Ra
infa
ll (m
m/d
ay
)
23
23.5
24
24.5
25
25.5
26
26.5
27
27.5
28
Te
mp
era
ture
(C
)
Observed ppt (1961-90)
Baseline ppt (1961-90)
Observed temp (1961-90)
Baseline temp (1961-90)
MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERATURE
MALAYSIA - TEMPERATURE ANOMALY
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.4
2.7
3.0
3.3
3.6
3.920
00
2007
2014
2021
2028
2035
2042
2049
2056
2063
2070
2077
2084
2091
2098
YEAR
TE
MP
ER
AT
UR
E
A
NO
MA
LY
( %
)
PENINSULAR MALAYSIASABAHSARAWAK
Simulation of Average Annual Surface Temperature for Malaysia using PRECIS
• 5 year running averages used
MEAN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION
MALAYSIA - PRECIPITATION ANOMALY
-35.0-32.0-29.0-26.0-23.0-20.0-17.0-14.0-11.0
-8.0-5.0-2.01.04.07.0
10.013.016.019.0
2000
2007
2014
2021
2028
2035
2042
2049
2056
2063
2070
2077
2084
2091
2098
YEAR
PR
EC
IPIT
AT
ION
AN
OM
AL
Y (
% )
PENINSULAR MALAYSIASABAHSARAWAK
Simulation of Average Annual Rainfall for Malaysia using PRECIS
• 5 year running averages used
1.3 °C 1.9°C 3.1°C 1.1°C 1.7°C 2.9°C
1.5°C 2.0°C 3.2°C
1.4°C 1.9°C 3.2°C
1.2°C 2.0°C 3.4°C
1.4°C 2.0°C 3.8°C
1.2°C 1.9°C 3.0°C 1.0°C 1.7°C 2.8°C
2020 - 2029 2050 - 2059 2090 - 2099
Annual Mean Temperature Anomaly Relative to 1990 - 1999
-11.3 6.4 11.9 -18.7 -6.0 4.1
-10.2 2.3 14.1
-14.6 -0.2 15.2 -9.1 –1.3 6.2
-8.9 –1.2 0.3
-17.5 –12.8 –3.6
Annual Mean Rainfall Anomaly (%) Relative to 1990 – 1999
Thank You