climate change and long-term sustainability of human societies
TRANSCRIPT
Climate Change and Long-term Sustainability of Human Societies
Why the long view matters for Sustainability, Resilience, Policy
Margaret C. Nelson, Arizona State University
Dynamics of climate, environment, society
Presumptions about our past:
climate challenge collapse
Humans and all aspects of the global systems are integrally linked
Tapping Our Understanding of the Past
Tradeoffs
No absolute resilience to climate challenges
Uncertainty and Tradeoffs
NORTH ATLANTICRare climate events have the greatest impact: directly and indirectly
Successful short-term adaptation is no guarantee of long-term success
SOUTHWEST US
Tradeoffs - Human
Securities
SOUTHWEST US
Human securities inform understanding of life under different conditions
No perfect achievement of human securities: they are dynamically traded off depending on decisions
Coupled Natural-Human Systems
Climate impacts on social and political relations
Climate change is inevitably a part of complex social adaptations and the evolution of social systems
KURIL ISLANDS
Which climate changes matter?
15001450140013501300125012001150110010501000950900850800750700
Reorganization to dispersed hamlets Re-aggregation Regional depopulation
Dry period Very dry period
Precipitation reconstruction (Central Rio Grande) developed by Grissino-Mayer, Baisan, and Swetnam (1997). Droughts identified by Ingram (2008).
MIMBRES
Climate hazards and social longevity
CARIBBEAN
The past does not provide predictions for future courses, but it provides examples, experiments of sorts, by which we can critically examine our ideas about resilience and sustainability.
Case studiesNORTH ATLANTIC ISLANDS
Andrew Dugmore (University of Edinburgh) and
Scott Ingram (Arizona State University)
SOUTHWEST US
Michelle Hegmon (Arizona State University)
KURIL ISLANDS
Ben Fitzhugh (University of Washington)
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS
Jago Cooper (University College London)
Discussion: Thomas McGovern (City University New York)