climate change and kansas johannes feddema department of geography the university of kansas
TRANSCRIPT
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Climate Change and Kansas
Johannes Feddema
Department of Geography
The University of Kansas
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What is Climate Science
What is Climate Science• Understanding of the movement of energy into,
through, and out of the Earth System
• Based on physics through the processes of:• Electromagnetic radiation
• Convective heating of the Atmosphere (sensible heat)
• Convective transport of water vapor
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z
342
324
390
16540
235
30
0
7824
67
107
30
77
168
Surface Energy Balance: 168 = 390 – 324 + 24 + 78
Top of Atmosphere Energy Balance: 342 – 107 = 235
Sensible Heat
Latent Heat
Evapo-transpiration
Conduction
Long-wave Radiationfrom Clouds
Long-wave Radiationfrom Atmosphere
Long-wave RadiationAtmospheric Window
Longwave RadiationAbsorbed by Atmosphere
Longwave RadiationEmmited by Surface
Long-wave RadiationEmitted byAtmosphere
350
Outgoing Long-wave Radiation
Thermal heating
IncomingSolar Radiation
Shortwave
ReflectedShortwave radiation
by Clouds Aerosols
and Gases
ReflectedShortwave radiation
by Surface
AbsorbedShortwave radiation
by Surface
AbsorbedShortwave radiation
by Atmosphere
ReflectedShortwave radiation
Global Average Energy Balance
Atmosphere Energy Balance:67 + 350 + 24 + 78 = 324 + 165 + 30
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Background: Human Climate Interactions
What exactly do we want to simulate?
AgricultureIntensityCrop typesIrrigationFertilizer use
GrazingIntensityPasture
Natural Vegetation?
Urban
De/Re-forestationPlantationSuccessionDegradation
Soil Degradation
Atmospheric Composition
FireNaturalHuman causedAgricultural
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So what are we worried about?
Humans develop as species
{19001958
2005
Ice Age
Present
Future?
1900
Rate = +0.7 ºC 100yrs
0.7 ºC
100 years
Rate ≈ +0.036 ºC 100yrs5-8 ºC
18,000 years
Rate – Depends on: response time? feed backs?
Last Glacial Maximum
Domestication of plants and animals
Industrial revolution begins
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Source: World Resources 2000-2001 Time Magazine – 9 April 2001
Climate Forcing (Anthropogenic)
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z
342
324
390
16540
235
30
0
7824
67
107
30
77
168
Surface Energy Balance: 168 – 324 = 390 + 24 + 78 + 0
Top of Atmosphere Energy Balance: 342 – 107 = 235
Sensible Heat
Latent Heat
Evapo-transpiration
Conduction
Long-wave Radiationfrom Clouds
Long-wave Radiationfrom Atmosphere
Long-wave RadiationAtmospheric Window
Longwave RadiationAbsorbed by Atmosphere
Longwave RadiationEmmited by Surface
Long-wave RadiationEmitted byAtmosphere
350
Outgoing Long-wave Radiation
Thermal heating
IncomingSolar Radiation
Shortwave
ReflectedShortwave radiation
by Clouds Aerosols
and Gases
ReflectedShortwave radiation
by Surface
AbsorbedShortwave radiation
by Surface
AbsorbedShortwave radiation
by Atmosphere
ReflectedShortwave radiation
Global Average Energy Balance
39
234
351 2
1
166
326
79
391
Atmosphere Energy Balance:67 + 350 + 24 + 78 = 324 + 165 + 30
235
352
16679 326352
79391326
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Recent Climate Variable Trends
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How far back should we look?
Permian Crash
Extinction ofDinosaurs
Terrestrial plants
But it was a different world
SourcesGlobalwarmingart.com www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Phanerozoic_Carbon_Dioxide_png
Bergman etaal (2004). American Journal of Science 301: 182-204. Berner and Kothavala (2001). American Journal of Science 304: 397–437. Gradstein, FM and JG Ogg (1996). Episodes 19: 3-5. Gradsteinet al. (2005). A geologic time scale 2004. Camb. Univ. PressRothman (2001) Proc. of the Nat. Academy of Sciences 99 (7): 4167-4171. Royer, et al. (2004) GSA Today www.scotese.com
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Abrupt Transitions in the Summer Sea Ice
ObservationsSimulated5-year running mean
• Gradual forcing results in abrupt Sept ice decrease
• Extent decreases from 70 to 20% coverage in 10 years.
“Abrupt”transition
Impacts of Climate Change – Sea Ice Extent
SourcesNSIDCNCAR
Simulated
Observed
Greenland
Russia
Scandinavia
Alaska
Canada
Alaska
Greenland
Russia
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IPCC Report on Anthropogenic Climate Impacts
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Climate Change Science
What do we need to know?• Is the climate changing
• Observations• Reference conditions
• Climate change attribution• What is causing it to change
• Climate projections• What does theory tell us about the future
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Global Climate over the last century
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How to lie with Statistics (or maps)
1977 to 2007
Annual 1977 - 2007 Average = 54.56 degF Annual 1977 - 2007 Trend = 0.53 degF / Decade
1930 to 2007Annual 1930 - 2007 Average = 54.55 degF Annual 1930 - 2007 Trend = -0.04 degF / Decade
Kansas Temperature Changes
SourceNational Climate Data Centerhttp://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/hr-display3.pl
1895 to 2007Annual 1895 - 2007 Average = 54.27 degF Annual 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.09 degF / Decade
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Global Climate over the last century
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Annual 1895 - 2007 Average = 27.50 Inches Annual 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.22 Inches / Decade
Annual 1930 - 2007 Average = 27.62 Inches Annual 1930 - 2007 Trend = 0.56 Inches / Decade
Annual 1977 - 2007 Average = 28.96 Inches Annual 1977 - 2007 Trend = 0.32 Inches / Decade
Kansas Precipitation Changes
SourceNational Climate Data Centerhttp://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/hr-display3.pl
1895-2007
1930-2007
1977-2007
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+ 2 C all months+ 0% Precipitation
D = 95S = 246
+ 4 C all months+ 0% Precipitation
D =151S = 188
+ 1.5 C all months+ 5% Precipitation
D = 69S = 302Present Day Normal D = 47
S = 304
2050
Kansas Climate projections
Eastern Kansas (37N, 95W)
2100+ 3 C all months+ 5% Precipitation
D =107S = 255
Precipitation
Potential Evapotranspiration
D = Annual Deficit (mm)S = Annual Surplus (mm)
Source: IPCC 2007J. Feddema University of Kansas
IPCC A1B Scenario Middle of the road Scenario
3.5ºC (6.3ºF) annual T increase
3% annual P increase (summer -3% P)
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+ 1.5 C all months+ 5% Precipitation
D = 383S = 0
2050
Kansas Climate projectionsD = Annual Deficit (mm)S = Annual Surplus (mm)
Western Kansas (37N, 95W)
2100
+ 2 C all months+ 0% Precipitation
D = 433S = 0
+ 3 C all months+ 5% Precipitation
D =463S = 0
+ 4 C all months+ 0% Precipitation
D =540S = 0
Source: IPCC 2007J. Feddema University of Kansas
Precipitation
Potential Evapotranspiration
D = 330S = 0
IPCC A1B Scenario Middle of the road Scenario
3.5ºC (6.3ºF) annual T increase
3% annual P increase (summer -3% P)
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IPCC Simulations for Kansas
NW
SW SC
NC NE
SE
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Temperature Projections
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s
Decade
Tem
per
atu
re (
oC
)
NW KS
NC KS
NE KS
SW KS
SC KS
SE KSObservations 3 Model Projection
Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)
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Heating Degree Day Projections (18oC base Temp)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090sDecade
Mea
n A
nn
ual
Ave
rag
e H
eati
ng
DD
(oK
)
NW Kansas
NC Kansas
NE Kansas
SW Kansas
SC Kansas
SE Kansas
Observations 3 Model Projection
Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)
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Cooling Degree Day Projections (18oC base Temp)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s
Decade
Mea
n A
nn
ual
Ave
rag
e C
oo
ling
DD
(oK
)
NW Kansas
NC Kansas
NE Kansas
SW Kansas
SC Kansas
SE Kansas
Observations 3 Model Projection
Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)
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Growing Degree Day Projections (10oC base Temp)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s
Decade
Mea
n A
nn
ual
Ave
rag
e G
row
ing
DD
(oK
)
NW Kansas
NC Kansas
NE Kansas
SW Kansas
SC Kansas
SE Kansas
Observations 3 Model Projection
Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)
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Freezing Degree Day Projections (0oC base Temp)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s
Decade
Mea
n A
nn
ual
Ave
rag
e F
reez
ing
DD
(oK
)
NW Kansas
NC Kansas
NE Kansas
SW Kansas
SC Kansas
SE Kansas
Observations 3 Model Projection
Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)
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Potential Evapotranspiration projections
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
195
0s
196
0s
197
0s
198
0s
199
0s
200
0s
201
0s
202
0s
203
0s
204
0s
205
0s
206
0s
207
0s
208
0s
209
0s
Decade
Po
ten
tia
l Ev
ap
otr
an
sp
ira
tio
n (
mm
)
NW KS
NC KS
NE KS
SW KS
SC KS
SE KS
Observations 3 Model
Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)
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Precipitation Projections
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s
Decade
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(m
m)
NW KS
NC KS
NE KS
SW KS
SC KS
SE KSObservations 3 Model Projection
Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)
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Actual Evapotranspiration Trends
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s
Decade
AE
(m
m)
NW KS
NC KS
NE KS
SW KS
SC KS
SE KS
Observations 3 Model Projection
Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)
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Grid_Point_7_AE and PE
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Time
Ev
ap
otr
an
sp
ira
tio
n (
mm
)
GP_7_AE
GP_7_PE
Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)
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Annual Moisture Deficit (mm H2O)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s
Decade
Mea
n A
nn
ual
Ave
rag
e D
efic
it (
mm
H2O
)
NW KS
NC KS
NE KS
SW KS
SC KS
SE KS
Observations 3 Model Projection
Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)
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Annual Moisture Surplus (mm H2O)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s
Decade
Mea
n A
nn
ual
Ave
rag
e S
urp
lus
(mm
H2O
)
NW KS
NC KS
NE KS
SW KS
SC KS
SE KS
Observations 3 Model Projection
Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)
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Soil Moisture Trends
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s
Decade
So
il M
ois
ture
leve
l (W
HC
= 1
50 m
m)
NW KS
NC KS
NE KS
SW KS
SC KS
SE KS
Observations 3 Model Projection
Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)
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THE END
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Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Trends for Kansas
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s
Decade
Precip
itati
on
(in
ch
es)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Tem
peratu
re (°
F)
winter spring summer autumn winter spring summer autumn
Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)
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Global Climate Observing System
Sources: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermometer http://inventors.about.com/b/2004/11/16/the-history-behind-the-thermometer.htm www.nature.com http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Rapids/7592/Stevenson.jpg
Thermoscope
Thermometer
Greeks (density and energy)11th Century Avicenna 15?? -1603 Galileo (thermoscope)1613 – Segredo/Santorio (thermometer?)1714 Fahrenheit (Mercury)1742 Celsius (Centigrade Scale)
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Climate Change Science
What is causing climate to change?• Natural processes
• Solar processes and Paleo records • Atmospheric composition change• Changes in the carbon cycle
• Human induced processes• Atmospheric composition• Land cover effects
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Natural Forcing over the last decades
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How to compile long term information
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Human Impacts
Attributing climate change to a cause?• Solar forcing
• Volcanic forcing
• Greenhouse gas forcing
• Sulfate aerosol forcing (global dimming)
• Others?
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Background: The Climate System
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Climate Models
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R15 T42
T85 T170
Climate Models
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(300 km) (150 km)
(75) km (37 km)
Climate Models
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Timeline of Climate Model Development
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Climate Simulation: How good are the models?
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IPCC Report on Anthropogenic Climate Impacts
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Raupach et al., PNAS, 2007
Climate projections: What is to come?
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T. Barnett and D. Pierce of SIO
Climate Simulation: Ocean Response
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Climate change experiments from 16 groups (11 countries) and 23 models collected at PCMDI (over 31 terabytes of model data)
Committed warming averages 0.1°C per decade for the first two decades of the 21st century; across all scenarios, the average warming is 0.2°C per decade for that time period (recent observed trend 0.2°C per decade)
IPCC Ch. 10, Fig. 10.4, TS-32
Anomalies
relative
to 1980-99
Climate projections: Global Temperature
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Kansas Historical Records
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Background on Kansas Climate
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Background on Kansas Climate
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Future Simulations for Kansas
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Multi-model average precipitation % change, medium scenario (A1B), representing seasonal precipitation regimes, total differences 2090-99 minus 1980-99
Climate projections
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White areas are where less than two thirds of the models agree in the sign of the change
Climate projections
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Stippled areas are where more than 90% of the models agree in the sign of the change
Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes
Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions
This continues the observed patterns in recent trends
Fig. SPM-6
Climate projections
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Figure 11.12
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Figure 10.19
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Figure 10.18
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Human influence on climate - Perspectives
What is missing in these projection for Kansas?Irrigation now covers a significant portion of the state (local cooling; precipitation?)Land use change (local cooling)Urbanization (warming)
Past Examples
Mesopotamia – change in grazing and forests
Greeks – impacts of filling swamps, overgrazing etc.
Eastern US – discussions about the effects of deforestation leading to more rain?
Sodbusters – “rain follows the plough.”
Dust Bowl
Source: Glacken 1967 Traces …. http://www.aip.org/
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Winter (Dec-Feb) 1896 - 2007 Average = 31.54 degF Winter (Dec-Feb) 1896 - 2007 Trend = 0.21 degF / Decade
Summer (Jun-Aug) 1895 - 2007 Average = 76.50 degF Summer (Jun-Aug) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.04 degF / Decade
Fall (Sep-Nov) 1895 - 2007 Average = 55.87 degF Fall (Sep-Nov) 1895 - 2007 Trend = -0.04 degF / Decade
Spring (Mar-May) 1895 - 2007 Average = 53.23 degF Spring (Mar-May) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.12 degF / Decade
SourceNational Climate Data Centerhttp://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/hr-display3.pl
Spring
WinterFall
Summer
Kansas Temperature Changes: Seasonal
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Winter (Dec-Feb) 1896 - 2007 Average = 2.53 Inches Winter (Dec-Feb) 1896 - 2007 Trend = 0.02 Inches / Decade
Fall (Sep-Nov) 1895 - 2007 Average = 6.18 Inches Fall (Sep-Nov) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.02 Inches / Decade
Summer (Jun-Aug) 1895 - 2007 Average = 10.64 Inches Summer (Jun-Aug) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.05 Inches / Decade
Spring (Mar-May) 1895 - 2007 Average = 8.14 Inches Spring (Mar-May) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.12 Inches / Decade
SourceNational Climate Data Centerhttp://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/hr-display3.pl
Spring
WinterFall
Summer
Kansas Precipitation Changes: Seasonal
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Climate Change Science
Why the IPCC?• Recognized urgency of the problems
• Recognized the need to organize our knowledge
• Need to coordinate experiments
• Provide reliable information to decision makers
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1853 First International Meteorological Conference (standardization of instruments)1873 WMO's predecessor, the International Meteorological Organization (IMO) established1882 Launch of the First International Polar Year 1882-1883 1932 Launch of the second International Polar Year 1932-19331951 WMO established as a specialized agency of the United Nations1957 Launch of International Geophysical Year 1957-1958 Global Ozone Observing System set up 1963 World Weather Watch launched1976 WMO conducts first international assessment of the state of global ozone 1979 First World Climate Conference held which led to the establishment of the World Climate Programme1985 Vienna Convention on the Protection of the Ozone Layer 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer 1988 WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change established1989 Global Atmosphere Watch established to monitor atmospheric composition
WMO and UNEP initiate the process leading to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 1990 Second World Climate Conference initiates the Global Climate Observing System
First Assessment Report of the IPCC 1991 WMO/UNEP begin process which led to negotiation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change1992 UN Conference on Environment and Development (the 'Earth Summit') leads to Agenda 211995 Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 1997 El Nino/Southern Oscillation warm episode and severe weather events across the world1998 Kyoto Conference establishes timetable for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions2001 Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development (Johannesburg, South Africa) 2007 Bali Conference
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC awarded Nobel Prize
Milestones of the WMO
Source WMO
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IPCC Structure
TSU = Technical Support Unit
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IPCC -- Coordinating research efforts
IPCC creates infrastructure to coordinate experiments between groups• Standard emissions scenarios• Standard protocols
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IPCC Report on Anthropogenic Climate Impacts
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IPCC – Where from here?
Develop better information• Include biogeochemical cycles
• Better human impacts simulation
• More coordinated efforts
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IPCC – Publishing and conveying knowledge
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Scenarios for AR4
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AR5
Scenarios for AR5
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IPCC – Work Flow
(a) Sequential approach (b) Parallel approach
Emissions & socio-economic scenarios
(IAMs)1
Radiative forcingRadiative forcing2
Climate projections(CMs)
Climate projections(CMs)3
Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and levels
of radiative forcing1
Emissions & socio-economic scenarios
(IAMs)2b
Climate, atmospheric & C-cycle projections
(CMs)2a
Impacts, adaptation, vulnerability (IAV) & mitigation analysis3
Impacts, adaptation & vulnerability
(IAV)
Impacts, adaptation & vulnerability
(IAV)4
4
4
4
AR 4 AR 5
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IPCC – What next?
IAV research based on new CM and IAM scenarios
Time Line & Critical Path of Scenario Development
Continued Development and Application of IAM Scenarios
IAV Research Based on AR4 Climate and SRES IAM scenarios
Integration of CMC Ensembles with
IAM NEW Scenarios
RCPsSelection,
Extension to 2300, Downscaling
Story Lines
IAM
IAV
CMC
CMC Develops RCP-based Ensemble Runs
Development of New IAM Scenarios
12 monthsFa
ll 20
07
24 months 18 months 12 monthFa
ll 20
08
Fa
ll 20
10
Sp
ring
20
12
Sp
ring
20
13
Parallel Phase Integration Phase
Pre
pa
rato
ry
Ph
ase
Publication Lag
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ModelInput
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Conclusions
• Climate Science is still young• It needs to become much more interdisciplinary
– Biological Sciences– Geological Sciences– Computer Sciences– Geographical Sciences– Social Sciences – Political Sciences
• Ample research opportunities
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The End
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Proposed scenario considerations
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Scenarios for AR5
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T. Barnett and D. Pierce of SIO
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What will the future bring?
Global Climate over the last century
Using Models to simulate possible scenarios?
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Raupach et al., PNAS, 2007
Climate projections
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Climate change experiments from 16 groups (11 countries) and 23 models collected at PCMDI (over 31 terabytes of model data)
Committed warming averages 0.1°C per decade for the first two decades of the 21st century; across all scenarios, the average warming is 0.2°C per decade for that time period (recent observed trend 0.2°C per decade)
IPCC Ch. 10, Fig. 10.4, TS-32
Anomalies
relative
to 1980-99
Climate projections: GHG
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What about Kansas?
Global Climate over the last century
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Background on Kansas Climate
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Background on Kansas Climate
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Sea-ice Concentration: Climatology (1979-1999)… Mixture of Improved Physics and Resolution
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Climate Change Scenarios:
At any point in time, we are committed to additional warming and sea level rise from the radiative forcing already in the system.
Warming stabilizes after several decades, but sea level from thermal expansion continues to rise for centuries.
Each emission scenario has a warming impact.
(Meehl et al., 2005: How much more warming and sea level rise? Science, 307, 1769-1772)
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Media Attention to Global Warming…Not Sufficient to Change Policies!
What is the roleof skeptics?
What will the new Congress do?
What will KansasDo?
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Sea-ice Extent in Both NH and SH
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Climate models can be used to provide information on changes in extreme events such as heat waves
Heat wave severity defined as the mean annual 3-day warmest nighttime minima event
Model compares favorably with present-day heat wave severity
In a future warmer climate, heat waves become more severe in southern and western North America, and in the western European and Mediterranean region
Observed
Model
Future
From Meehl and Tebaldi 2005
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