climate change and health in ireland: a vulnerability assessment
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Climate change and health in Ireland: a vulnerability assessment. Trinity International Development Initiative. Dr. Elizabeth Cullen 10th November 2011. ‘Every doctor should know what to expect of the weather’ Hippocrates 400 B.C. Summary of presentation. Climate change - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Climate change and health in Ireland: a vulnerability
assessment
Trinity International Development Initiative
Dr. Elizabeth Cullen10th November 2011
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‘‘Every doctor should know what to Every doctor should know what to expect of the weather’expect of the weather’
Hippocrates 400 B.CHippocrates 400 B.C
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Summary of presentationSummary of presentation• Climate change Climate change
• Impacts on healthImpacts on health
• ConclusionsConclusions
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Source: Hadley Centre 2005
Source: Hadley Centre 2005
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-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Tem
pera
ture
ano
mal
y (1
961-
1990
) oC
Ireland_anomaly 10 year moving average(global) 10 year moving average(Ireland)
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Climate modelClimate model• A climate model is a numerical A climate model is a numerical
representation of the climate system representation of the climate system and combines known laws of physics and combines known laws of physics with factors such as climatic parameters with factors such as climatic parameters and atmospheric factors to compute the and atmospheric factors to compute the evolving state of the climate in evolving state of the climate in response to the changing composition response to the changing composition of the atmosphere (Ebi 2004)of the atmosphere (Ebi 2004)
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Impacts of climate change Impacts of climate change on health in Irelandon health in Ireland• Temperature related mortalityTemperature related mortality• Food-borne diseaseFood-borne disease• Water-borne diseaseWater-borne disease• Vector-borne diseasesVector-borne diseases• Other indirect effects, e.g. allergies, Other indirect effects, e.g. allergies,
skin cancerskin cancer
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201371-7
Mean temperature
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
Mor
talit
y ra
te p
er 1
00,0
00
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• Reductions in mortality, particularly Reductions in mortality, particularly from cardiovascular and respiratory from cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, and principally in the over mortality, and principally in the over 75 age group75 age group
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Future changes in Future changes in temperature related temperature related
mortalitymortality
2010 - 39 2040 - 69 2070 - 99% Change inmortality
-1.0(-0.4 - 2.3)
-2.1(-1.2 - 3.5)
-4.3(-2.1 - 6.9)
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31302928272625242322212019181716151413121110987654321
Days
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
Mor
talit
y ra
te p
er 1
0,00
0 an
d te
mpe
ratu
re in
deg
rees
Cel
sius Mortality rate
Temperature
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Foodborne diseaseFoodborne disease
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0 5 10 15 20
Mean temperature
ObservedQuadratic
Incidence of salmonella per week per 100,000
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0
3
6
9
12
15
2 5 8 10 12 15 18
Mean temperature
ObservedLinear
Cases
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20
30
40
50
60
0 5 10 15 20 25
Mean temperature
ObservedCubic
Cases of campylobacter
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Foodborne diseaseFoodborne diseaseFor every 1 degree rise in mean For every 1 degree rise in mean
temperature:temperature:• Salmonella 8% rise Salmonella 8% rise • Campylobacter 6% riseCampylobacter 6% rise• VTEC 6% riseVTEC 6% rise
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Water-borne diseaseWater-borne disease
“”Water quality is only of importance to you
if you use a tap or a toilet”
Boyden, 2006
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Climate change and rainfall Climate change and rainfall in Irelandin Ireland• WiWide-spread reduction in rain in East and de-spread reduction in rain in East and
South-East South-East
• Increase in winter rain in the WestIncrease in winter rain in the West
• Seasonal flooding may occur over a larger Seasonal flooding may occur over a larger area and persist for longer periods of time. area and persist for longer periods of time.
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Water quality and healthWater quality and health: a multi-factorial issue: a multi-factorial issueWarmer temperatures - growth of Warmer temperatures - growth of micro-micro-
organismsorganisms
Increased run-off and floodingIncreased run-off and flooding
VTEC and cryptosporidiosisVTEC and cryptosporidiosis
Water treatment plants need urgent attentionWater treatment plants need urgent attention
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FloodingFloodingNo warningNo warningNight timeNight timeColdCold
• Immediate Immediate • Mortality, trauma, pollutionMortality, trauma, pollution• DelayedDelayed Leptospirosis ,earache, skin infections,Leptospirosis ,earache, skin infections, dampness, asthmadampness, asthma• PsychologicalPsychological
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Reduced water suppliesReduced water suppliesIncreased demand for waterIncreased demand for water Population increases in the EastPopulation increases in the East Warmer temperaturesWarmer temperatures Increased use Increased use of of surface watersurface water
Decreased efficDecreased efficieniency of treatment plantscy of treatment plants
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EU Water FrameworkEU Water Framework Directive Directive
• To achieve ‘good status’ for all water To achieve ‘good status’ for all water bodies by 2015bodies by 2015
• New Drinking Water Regulations – New Drinking Water Regulations – will result in improved drinking water will result in improved drinking water qualityquality
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‘‘Safe water cannot be taken for Safe water cannot be taken for granted’.granted’. (Wall 2001) (Wall 2001)
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Other indirect effectsOther indirect effects
Malaria and Lyme diseaseMalaria and Lyme disease
Skin cancerSkin cancer
AllergiesAllergies
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Summary of findings•Less temperature related mortalityLess temperature related mortality• Increase in food-borne diseaseIncrease in food-borne disease• Increase in water-borne diseaseIncrease in water-borne disease•Change in vector-borne diseasesChange in vector-borne diseases• Increase in skin cancerIncrease in skin cancer•Change in timing and location of Change in timing and location of
allergic diseasesallergic diseases
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RecommendationsRecommendations
• Heat wave plan including ‘at-risk’ registerHeat wave plan including ‘at-risk’ register• Food hygieneFood hygiene• WFD and Drinking Water regulations are WFD and Drinking Water regulations are
public health issuespublic health issues• Education re exposure to sunEducation re exposure to sun
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AfricaAfrica• Increase heat stress and drought -human Increase heat stress and drought -human
and animal mortalityand animal mortality• Increase in malaria in Zimbabwe and South Increase in malaria in Zimbabwe and South
Africa and decrease in Central AfricaAfrica and decrease in Central Africa• Changes in tsetse fly distributionChanges in tsetse fly distribution• Increase in semi-arid areas of Africa - Increase in semi-arid areas of Africa -
meningitis belt meningitis belt • Increased flooding in Eastern AfricaIncreased flooding in Eastern Africa
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Drought Zambia 2002 Photo 2002 Richard Lord / UMCOR
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•The most important challenge is the limited capacity for research and adaptation in low- and middle-income countries”
• IPCC Fourth Report 2007
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Conclusion Conclusion • Imbalance between human activity Imbalance between human activity
and environment diminish life and environment diminish life support systemssupport systems
• Climate is a life supporting systemClimate is a life supporting system
• We need to address the causesWe need to address the causes
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“We are in the middle of a large uncontrolled experiment on the only planet we have”. Douglas Kennedy 2006
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• I would like to acknowledge a debt of I would like to acknowledge a debt of gratitude to Professor John Sweeney and gratitude to Professor John Sweeney and Professor Dennis Pringle, Department of Professor Dennis Pringle, Department of Geography, NUI MaynoothGeography, NUI Maynooth
• Environmental Protection AgencyEnvironmental Protection Agency
• Thank youThank you