climate change and food security in latin america
DESCRIPTION
Presentation madeby Andy Jarvis in the primer Cumbre Latin Americano de Regiones sobre seguridad alimentario on the 11th October, 2011 in medellin, Colombia.TRANSCRIPT
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Cambio climatico y la seguridad alimentaria
Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Emmanuel Zapata, Peter Laderach
Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical, CIAT
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El Reto
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Concentraciones de gases de efecto
invernadero
Implicaciones a largo plazo en el clima, y aptitud
climática para producir cultivos
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Historical impacts on food security
% Yield impact for wheat
Observed changes in growing season temperature for crop growing regions,1980-2008.
Lobell et al (2011)
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“Rain has become very irregularly, this year we suffered drought followed by heavy rains during Broccoli season”Two small-farmers & brothers, Guatemala, Patzún, October, 2010
Objectives Perceptions
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Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050
La adaptabilidad para los cultivos va cambiando
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In order to meet global demands, we
will need
60-70% more food
by 2050.
Seguridad alimentario en riesgo
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Optimistic
Baselin
e
Pessimisti
c
Optimistic
Baselin
e
Pessimisti
c
Optimistic
Baselin
e
Pessimisti
c0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Maize Rice Wheat
Food Prices are Likely to Increase…%
pric
e in
crea
se 2
010-
2050
Nelson et al., 2010 IFPRI/CCAFS
8ISPC Science Forum 2011
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Optimistic
Baselin
e
Pessimisti
c
Optimistic
Baselin
e
Pessimisti
c
Optimistic
Baselin
e
Pessimisti
c0
20
40
60
80
100
120 Economic effect Climate effect
% p
rice
incr
ease
201
0-20
50Climate Change Will Add Greatly to Price Increases…
Nelson et al., 2010 IFPRI/CCAFS
Maize Rice Wheat9ISPC Science Forum 2011
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• Mitigacion refiere a la reduccion de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero– Colombia aporta 0.37% de emisiones globales– 35-40% proviene del sector agropecuario
• Adaptacion refiere a procesos que aumenta la capacidad de enfrentar los impactos de cambio climatico
Mitigacion y Adaptacion
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Sources of Agricultural Greenhouse Gasesexcluding land use change Mt CO2-eq
Source: Cool farming: Climate impacts of agriculture and mitigation potential, Greenpeace, 07 January 2008
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Modelos: Cómo saber qué pasará?
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Modelos GCM : “Global Climate Models”
• 21 “global climate models” (GCMs) basados en ciencias atmosféricas, química, física, biología
• Se corre desde el pasado hasta el futuro• Hay diferentes escenarios de emisiones de gases
INCERTIDUMBRE POLITICO (EMISIONES), Y INCERTIDUMBRE CIENTIFICO (MODELOS)
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Entonces, ¿qué es lo que dicen?
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Variabilidad y linea base
+
Clim
ate
Timescale
Short (change in baseline and variability) Long
Baseline
_
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Region DepartamentoCambio en
Precipitacion
Cambio en Temperatura
media
Cambio en estacionalidad de
precipitacion
Amazonas Amazonas 12 2.9 1.4 0 135Amazonas Caqueta 138 2.7 -1.3 0 193Amazonas Guania 55 2.9 -3.2 0 271Amazonas Guaviare 72 2.8 -2.9 -1 209Amazonas Putumayo 117 2.6 0.6 0 170Andina Antioquia 18 2.1 1.3 0 129Andina Boyaca 50 2.7 -3.9 -1 144Andina Cundinamarca 152 2.6 -2.6 0 170Andina Huila 51 2.4 1.0 0 144Andina Norte de santander 73 2.8 -0.4 0 216Andina Santander 51 2.7 -2.4 0 158Andina Tolima 86 2.4 -3.1 0 148Caribe Atlantico -74 2.2 -2.9 2 135Caribe Bolivar 90 2.5 -1.8 0 242Caribe Cesar -119 2.6 -1.3 0 160Caribe Cordoba -11 2.3 -3.8 0 160Caribe Guajira -69 2.2 -1.8 0 86Caribe Magdalena -158 2.4 -1.8 0 153Caribe Sucre 10 2.4 -4.1 -1 207Eje Cafetero Caldas 252 2.4 -4.2 -1 174Eje Cafetero Quindio 153 2.3 -4.1 -1 145Eje Cafetero Risaralda 158 2.4 -3.5 -1 141Llanos Arauca -13 2.9 -6.4 -1 188Llanos Casanare 163 2.8 -5.7 -1 229Llanos Meta 10 2.7 -5.4 -1 180Llanos Vaupes 46 2.8 -1.4 0 192Llanos Vichada 59 2.6 -2.6 0 152Pacifico Choco -157 2.2 -1.2 0 148Sur Occidente Cauca 172 2.3 -1.6 0 168Sur Occidente Narino 155 2.2 -1.4 0 126Sur Occidente Valle del Cauca 275 2.3 -5.1 -1 166
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Climate change predictions for 2050
Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007)
By 2050 the annual temperature will rise on average 2.4 °C
The maximum annual temperature will rise 3°C
The minimum annual temperature will increase 2.3°C
By 2050 annual precipitation will increase by 65 millimeters.
“It will be hotter year-round and there will be more precipitation all over the year.”
Extracted Climate Data for Bogotá
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Los Problemas
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Un Ejemplo
El susto de café en Cauca y las areas protegidas
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Desplazamiento de climas hacia altitudes mayores
Rango Altitudinal
Tmedia anual actual
Tmedia anual futuro
Tmedia anual
cambio (ºC)
Ppt total anual actual
190-500 25.54 27.70 2.16 5891 6002 1.88501-1000 23.47 25.66 2.19 3490 3597 3.041000-1500 21.29 23.50 2.21 2537 2641 4.101500-2000 18.36 20.58 2.22 2519 2622 4.082000-2500 15.60 17.82 2.22 2555 2657 4.002500-3000 13.33 15.54 2.21 2471 2575 4.20
Temperatura media reduce por 0.51oC por cada 100m en la zona cafetera. Un cambio de 2.2oC equivale a una diferencia de 440m.
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Adaptabilidad para café en Cauca, Colombia
• Cambios leves a 2020, y cambios drásticos a 2050
• Se reduce el área cultivable. Algunas nuevas oportunidades
MECETA
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Un análisis sectorial para Colombia
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Impactos en Colombia: cambio (%) en productividad a nivel Nacional
Plátano Café Algodón Caña Sorgo Fríjol Trigo Cebada Yuca Papa Ajonjolí Arroz Coco Ñame Maíz Tabaco Cacao Palma
-18
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
Cambio adaptabilidad (%) 2050-A2
Cambio adaptabilidad (%) 2050-A2
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Cambios promedios en adaptabilidad por departamento
Vichad
aSu
cre
Casanare
Bolívar
Magdale
na
Córdoba
Meta
Guaviar
eCesa
r
Guajira
Guanía
Arauca
Amazonas
Tolim
a
Vaupés
Antioquia
Atlántico
Choco
Caqueta
Santan
der
Valle d
el Cau
caHuila
QuindíoCau
ca
Putumay
oCald
as
Norte de S
antan
der
Cundina
Nariño
Risaral
da
Boyaca
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Cambio promedio en adaptabilidad
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Dos casos diferentes: Bolivar vs. Cauca
Ajonjolí
Algodón
Arroz
Banan
oCaca
oCafé Cañ
a
Cebad
aCoco
Fríjol
MaízÑam
ePalm
aPap
a
Plátan
oSo
rgo
Tabaco Tri
go Yuca
-60.00
-50.00
-40.00
-30.00
-20.00
-10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
Bolivar
Cauca
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Preliminary results Bogota’s food security
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Climate change predictions for 2050
Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007)
By 2050 the annual temperature will rise on average 2.4 °C
The maximum annual temperature will rise 3°C
The minimum annual temperature will increase 2.3°C
By 2050 annual precipitation will increase by 65 millimeters.
“It will be hotter year-round and there will be more precipitation all over the year.”
Extracted Climate Data for Bogotá
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Exposure by changing crop suitability of Potato
Potato
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Exposure by changing crop suitability of cassava
Cassava
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Reportes municipales de vulnerabilidad
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Hacia Soluciones
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Input Providers Consumer
Other Crops
Structural Adaptation
Action: Common Code for the Coffee Community (C4) introduces an add-on climate module that would indicate when coffee producers have adapted their production system to a changing climate.
Result: Retailers agree to buy only C4-certified “climate-proofed” coffee. Accordingly, changes occur down the coffee supply chain, with collaborative efforts to create a more adaptive structure.
Adaptive Adjustments
Action:a) Shadingb) Changing varietalsc) Changing inputs
Result: Improved risk management at the farm level, allowing for long-term adaption.
Wholesale/Retail
C4
Coffee FederationCoffee Producers
a) Shading
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Coffee Producers
Transformational Adaptation
Action: Migrate to keep farmingChange farming systems (agricultural)Switch livelihood sources (non-agricultural)
Result: Long-term adaptation, but requires significant up-front transition costs.
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Opciones de adaptación y mitigación: Arroz de riego y secano
Medidas de Mitigación
• Reducir el consumo volumétrico del agua.
• Reducir el uso de fertilizantes en los sistemas productivos.
• Mejorar el manejo de los residuos de la cosecha y post-cosecha en el campo.
• Uso de hongos fijadores de nitrógeno
• Inhibición de nitrificación biológica.
Medidas de Adaptación
• Seguros agrícolas.• Adecuación de distritos de riego
actuales.• Aumento del área irrigada.• Desarrollo de nuevas variedades.• Cambio varietal
Nota: algunas de las medidas de mitigación propuestas para el subsector de arroz, pueden ser también empleadas como medidas de adaptación
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Análisis costo-eficacia de las medidasMedidas como el manejo del agua y de los residuos de cosecha: las más recomendables
Manejo racional de la fertilización: solo para algunas regiones productoras.
Aumento anual promedio (aprox) de los costos (US$2005):Mitigación: US$130 millones Adaptación: US$45 millones
Los mayores incrementos estarán relacionados con la adquisición de equipos, las obras de infraestructura y los costos de producción de los cultivos. Curva de abatimiento en arroz
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Como adaptamos?• Necesitamos saber que hacemos,
como lo hacemos, cuando lo hacemos y donde?
• Primero paso es analisar el problema• Segundo, analisar opciones de
adaptacion: politicas, practicas, tecnologias, inversiones
• Evaluar costo-beneficio• Implementar
INVE
STIG
ACIO
N Y
DES
ARRO
LLO
TE
CNO
LOG
ICO
POLI
TICA
S PU
BLIC
OS
Y PR
IVAD
OS
BUEN AGRONOMIA
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Email: [email protected]: http://dapa.ciat.cgiar.org