climate change and food security erin schlicher jrn 473 december 6, 2010
TRANSCRIPT
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Climate Change and Food Security
Erin SchlicherJRN 473
December 6, 2010
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Overview
• Global climate change will impact agricultural production
• Increases in population have increased food demand
• The combined effects of climate change and population growth are likely to decrease global food security
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Agricultural Production
• Temperature• CO2 levels• Precipitation
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Temperature
• Longer growing seasons or multiple planting cycles per season in mid-latitudes
• Extension of crop production toward the poles
• Heat stress to crops and livestock• Increased water loss through transpiration• Increased range of insects, weeds, and
disease• Decrease in soil quality, nutrient limitations• Grain filling and vernalization
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CO2 Levels
• Increased CO2 levels can increase photosynthesis rates and improve water use efficiency by limiting transpiration
• Weeds may become more invasive• Many crops, such as maize, sorghum,
millet, and sugar cane, do not benefit from increased CO2 levels
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Precipitation
• Climate scientists expect more extremes in precipitation: longer dry spells and brief, heavy downpours– Drought stress on crops– Soil erosion– Increased risk of flooding– Reduction in water available for
irrigation
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Population Growth
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Population Growth
• Increased production on limited amount of arable land– More intensive application of fertilizers and
pesticides– Land clearing and development of wetlands
for agriculture contribute about 20% of annual greenhouse gas emissions
• Increased water scarcity– Higher demands in population centers
diverts water from agricultural uses
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Food Security
• The world did see a food crisis in 2007-2008– Will such crises become more frequent in
the future?
• Most scientists believe climate change will pose a significant risk to food security on a global basis
• Not all food systems are equally vulnerable. The poorest countries are likely to be the most affected
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The three components of food systems with their main elements shown in italics.
Gregory P et al. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 2005;360:2139-2148
©2005 by The Royal Society
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• Food Access– A more volatile climate will pose more
risks to crop production, leading to increased prices
• Food Availability– Poor farmers may not have the
resources or technology to adapt to a changing climate, causing decreased production in poorer, more vulnerable countries
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Sources
Chartres, Colin J, and Samyuktha Varma. Out of Water: From Abundance to Scarcity and How to Solve the World's Water Problems. Upper Saddle River, N.J: FT Press, 2011. Print.
Gregory, P.J., J.S.I. Ingram, and M. Brklacich. Climate Change and Food Security. Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society. Oct. 2005. 2139-2148.
Michon, Heather K. “Food Production.” Encyclopedia of Global Warmingand Climate Change. 2008. SAGE Publications. 4 Dec. 2010. http://www.sage-ereference.com/globalwarming/Article_n256.html.
Swaminathan, Monkombu S, and Norman E. Borlaug. Science and Sustainable Food Security: Selected Papers of M S Swaminathan. Singapore: World Scientific, 2010. Print.