climate change and food production: challenges and opportunities for research luis garrote and ana...
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Climate change and food production: Challenges and opportunities for research
Luis Garrote and Ana IglesiasTechnical University of Madrid
ENV-NCP-TOGETHER Brokerage Event Malta 31 August 2012
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climate and CO2 changes
water availability
land productivity
technology
development
population
trade, pricesuncertainty discount rate
A view of the problem from the academic side
Research questions about
the future
Knowledge needed
Support to policy
Models, Impacts, forecastin
g
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How can food production deal with an uncertain future?
Global projections of crop productivity and water availability (World, EU)
Adaptation and policy
How do we prioritise adaptation to overcome the resulting risks?
Assessment and strategy planning process
Research questions about
the future
Knowledge needed
Models, Impacts, forecastin
g
4
How can food production deal with an uncertain future?
Adaptation and policy
How do we prioritise adaptation to overcome the resulting risks?
4
Support to policy
4
Many projects provide policy
support
WASSERMed
HIGHNOON
enviroGRIDS
2 assertions
Scenario analysis
Adaptive capacity
5
Understanding uncertainty is useful for facing agricultural challenges
Understanding and reducing vulnerability does not demand accurate predictions of the impacts of climate change
1 key issue can climate change science map the future agriculture?
Output:Agro-
climatic regions that
include climate,
farm types, irrigated
areas, adaptive capacity
Output: Database of simulated crop responses to climate, environment, and adaptive management
1 2
ClimateCrop model
3
5
4
Output: Land productivity and water demand estimated functions
Crop models (DSSAT)
Agricultural production functions
Climate change analysis
Agro-climatic regions
Climate change policy
analysis
Output: Land productivity and water demand estimates responding to climate and farm adaptive management
Output: Land productivity and water demand estimates responding to climate and policy (environmental and energy)
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8
A1B Avg
A1B(1 to 12)
E1 Avg
E1(1 to 14)
RCP8
Irrigation water demand change (% of baseline) to adapt food production to climate change
0 2 10 20 30 80 9
A1B_av
E1_av
natural water resources
regulation infrastructure
water availability
non-conventionalresources
Policy
nature non-nature uses
water recycling
Policy
essentialproductivePolicy
Policy
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A: Demand manag
B: Supply manag: regulation
C: Supply manag: additional resources (i.e., water re-use)
D: Demand manag: efficiency manag, communication and education
B, D
B
A
A, C, D
WAAPA model
Response to climate change in Water Availability
Change in Water Availability for
Irrigation
(A2-CTL)/CTL
Change in Mean Annual Runoff
(A2-CTL)/CTL
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Demand-Reliability curve under Climate ChangeLoire Rhone
Adour - Garonne
Duero-Douro
Tajo-Tejo
Guadiana
GuadalquivirJúcar
Ebro
Po
Appen Meridionale
Appen Centrale
Appen Settentrionale
Alpi Orientali
Attica-Pelopone. Thessaly
West Macedonia
W Aegean E Maced
E Aegean Thrace
Cent Macedonia
Effect of Public Policies
Improved Water Resources System
Management1.E+00
1.E+01
1.E+02
1.E+03
1.E+04
1.E+00 1.E+01 1.E+02 1.E+03 1.E+04
Ava
ilabi
lity
for
irri
gati
on u
nder
impr
oved
man
agem
ent
(hm
3/yr
)
Availability for irrigation under local management (hm3/yr)
Effect of System Management on Irrigation Water AvailabilityDMI - CTL
GMD
GNRD
1.00
1.50
2.00
5.00
1.E+00
1.E+01
1.E+02
1.E+03
1.E+00 1.E+01 1.E+02 1.E+03
Ava
ilabi
lity
wit
h re
stri
ction
s (h
m3/
yr)
Availability without restrictions (hm3/yr)
Effect of environmental restrictions on Irrigation Water AvailabilityCTL - DMI - Percentile of monthly flow distribution
15%
10%
5%
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
1.E+00
1.E+01
1.E+02
1.E+03
1.E+04
1.E+00 1.E+01 1.E+02 1.E+03 1.E+04
Ava
ilabi
lity
wit
h im
prov
ed e
ffici
ency
(hm
3/yr
)
Availability with 300 l/pd (hm3/yr)
Effect of urban efficiency on Irrigation Water AvailabilityCTL - DMI - Per capita water use
200 l/pd
250 l/pd
1.00
1.50
2.00
5.00
Stronger Environmental
Protection
Improved Urban Water Use Efficiency
POLICY COMPARATIVE EFFECT GEOGRAPHICAL INFLUENCE
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1.E+00
1.E+01
1.E+02
1.E+03
1.E+04
1.E+00 1.E+01 1.E+02 1.E+03 1.E+04
Ava
ilabi
lity
for
irri
gati
on u
nder
impr
oved
man
agem
ent
(hm
3/yr
)
Availability for irrigation under local management (hm3/yr)
Effect of System Management on Irrigation Water AvailabilityDMI - CTL
GMD
GNRD
1.00
1.50
2.00
5.00
Ada
ptiv
e ca
paci
ty
ImpactsVery negative(more than -30%)
Very positive(more than +30%)
None(AC = 0)
Very high(AC = 1)
no risk
lowvery high
high medium
potential risk (a synthesis)
low medium high or very high
thank you
Presentation made at the:ENV-NCP-TOGETHER Brokerage Event
Malta 31 August 2012
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