climate change and environmental management services · 2014-08-17 · climate change and...

Climate Change and Environmental Management ServicesBy Weather Risk in collaboration with Basix

Team Expertise Experience

Dr.Ashwini Kumar

Bohara

Climate Scientist and Weather

Forecaster

30 + years experience in climate

science

Dr. Kanti Prasad Climate Scientist and Weather

Forecaster

30 + years experience in climate

science

Dr. Pradhan Parth

Sarathi

Climate Scientist 20+ years experience in Climate science

Dr.Saleemul Huq Climate Change Specialist 30+ years of experience in Climate

Change Management

Dr. Sanjib Kr. Bora Veterinary Livestock Insurance Expert 30+ years of experience

Mr.Arijit Datta Agriculturist 30+ years experience in Agricultural

Livelihoods

Team Expertise Experience

Mr. Pradeep Singh Agriculturist 20+ years of experience.

Mr. Karthik Kumar Agriculture Statistics 10+ years of experience.

Mr.Birendra Narain Thakur Hydrologist and Irrigation 30+ years experience

Mr.Sonu Agrawal Technologist and Atmospheric 15+ years of experience

Mr.Anuj Kumbhat Agriculture Insurance 15+ years of experience

Mr.Satheesh Arijillii Micro Finance and Micro Insurance

specialist

15+ years of experience

Dr. Rajendra Prasad Gautam Training Need Assessment 15+ years of experience

Ms. Nisha Kumari Project Manager 5+ years of experience

CONTENT

Components of Environmental Profiling

CASE STUDY 1- SPATIO Temporal Landscape modelling for natural hazard vulnerability analysis in select watershed areas of Central Western Ghat

CASE STUDY 2- Flood Disaster Risk Management: Gorakhpur Case Study Training Module

Climate Change and Vulnerability Analysis


Environmental Profiling

Physical Environme

nt

Biodiversity and forest

Socio‐economic envir

onment

Natural disasters and

hazards


Physical Environment Biodiversity and forest Socio‐economic environme

nt

Natural disasters and hazards

Climate- seasons, rainfall , temperature, wind speed and frequency

Soils- type/ composition

Topography-

Surface shapes and features

Soil degradation

Land use pattern

Arable land

Water resources

Wetlands

Protected area- national parks

Forest area and biodiversity

Biodiversity of wetlands

Biodiversity in agricultural systems

Pastoral land

Wooded areas

Population and economy

Human settlements

Energy and transport

Agriculture and animal husbandry

Pollution- Source

Natural disasters-drought, torrential rains, flooding, landslides, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and wild bush fires

Man‐induced disasters

Conflicts and wars and

Deforestation

Other catastrophes

Diseases and pests

Risks of explosion, accident and fire

SPATIO Temporal Landscape modelling for natural hazard vulnerability analysis in select watershed areas of Central Western Ghat

CASE STUDY-1

CITATIONo T. V. Ramachandra, Senior

Member, IEEE,

o Anindita Dasgupta,

o Uttam Kumar, Student

Member, IEEE,

o Bharath H Aithal, Student

Member, IEEE,

o P. G. Diwakar and

o N. V. Joshi

Facts

If the vegetative areas of the geography is cleared, the water retaining

capacity of the soil will decrease, triggering landslides in those areas.

Hence, there is a immediate need to restore those vegetative by

forestation to ensure that the soil is retained on the hill slopes and do

not activate any downward movement of the hill tops.

Natural disasters have drastically increased over the last decades. National, state and local government including NGOs are concerned with the loss of human life and damage to property caused by natural disasters. The trend of increasing incidences of landslides occurrence is expected to continue in the next decades due to

Urbanisation,

continued anthropogenic activities,

deforestation in the name of development and

increased regional precipitation in landslide-prone areas due to changing climatic patterns

SPATIO Temporal Landscape modelling for natural hazard vulnerability analysis in select

watershed areas of Central Western Ghat

Study area and data geo-climatic data

Identify location and type of forest, extent of forest, quantify the forest fragmentation

Predicting the probable landslide areas

GENERATE BASE LAYERS – district and taluk boundaries, water bodies, drainage network, etc.

Field data can be collected with a handheld GPS.

Environmental data such as precipitation of wettest month

Mapping of greenery using normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI)

Mapping of water bodies using normalised difference water index (NDWI)

historical data on vegetation and water bodies

Identify landslide occurrence points obtained from ground using handheld GPS overlaid on the classified image of the district

Forest fragmentation map based on Remote Sensing data

(inference could be drawn-This map indicates that hill slopes with undulating terrain and less vegetation cover (patch, transitional and edge forest) are more susceptible to landslides compared to the district which has relatively flat terrain with large area utilised under agricultural practices.

Validation of the probability distribution of the landslide prone areas by overlaying landslide occurrence points

Assessment and quantifying forest fragmentation caused due to anthropogenic disturbances

Natural Hazard Modelling Process



Conclusion

Landslides occur when masses of rock, earth or debris move down a slope. Mudslides, debris flows or mudflows, are common type of fast-moving landslides that tend to flow in channels. These are caused by disturbances in the natural stability of a slope, which are triggered by high intensity rains. The primary criteria that influence landslides are precipitation intensity, slope, soil type, elevation, vegetation cover and LC type.

In this paper, LU analyses along with forest fragmentation were carried out for five perennial watersheds of Uttara Kannada district. SVM was used to generate probable landslide map. By overlaying the fragmentation map on the landslide probable map, past and future occurrences of landslides can be visualised. It is also evident that degradation of forest and LC change is an important factor that is not only responsible for triggering landslides, but also a major contributor to global warming, climate change, natural resource depletion and consequent detrimental effect on our environment.



Acknowledgment

The environmental layers were obtained from WorldClim - Global Climate Data. NRSA, Hyderabad provided the LISS IV data used for land cover analysis.

We thank USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center for providing the environmental layers and Global Land Cover Facility (GLCF) for facilitating the Landsat images and Land Cover Change product.

Sl. No. Data Source

1 Environmental layers WorldClim - Global Climate Data

2 data used for land cover analysis. NRSA, Hyderabad

3 environmental layers USGS Earth Resources Observation

and Science (EROS) Center

4 facilitating the Landsat images and

Land Cover Change product.

Global Land Cover Facility (GLCF)



Flood Disaster Risk Management: Gorakhpur Case StudyTraining ModuleCASE STUDY-2

CITATIONo Anil K. Gupta,

o Sreeja S. Nair

o Shiraz A. Wajih and

o Sunanda Dey

Objective: Study floods, their impacts, and

the management perspectives and solutions for adapting to

floods

Introduction

Objective of project :

Study floods, their impacts, and the management perspectives and solutions for adapting to floods

Special focus has been given on interventions of Gorakhpur Environmental Action Group (GEAG) in flood disaster risk reduction which has helped the local communities in assessing the ground realities and building resilience to floods in future.

Salient features of this module:

Comprehensive study of Gorakhpur floods

Field based data analysis and interpretation

Localised adaptations and solutions relevant to native communities

Good understanding of concepts and themes related to floods

Indian example for fighting flood menace

Flood Disaster Risk Management: Gorakhpur Case Study

Process Flow of Study

Demographic and agro-geo-climatic settings: Trans-Saryu region

(Eastern Uttar Pradesh)

• Agro-ecological setting

• Socio-economic profile

Flood hazards: History, trends and impacts

• Flood frequency and ethno-history of flooding

• Impacts of flooding on community*

• Prioritising Problems*

Vulnerability analysis

Impacts of flooding on community

include -Livelihood system, Health and

sanitation, Drinking water, Impacts on

women, Lack of access to services and

transport


Prioritising problems*

EX:

First: Loss of commodities and property due to collapsed homes, lack of sanitary facilities, lack of food

Second: Evacuation, lack of fuel

Third: Lack of drinking water, health and disease concerns (both for humans and cattle) shelter

When attempting to identify the problems faced by a community, that the men only be consulted,

and hence that solutions be male biased. This is true during times of disaster as well, and thus the

problems, priorities and needs of women are neglected. As a result, it is necessary to involve

women in disaster planning and development and to ensure an effective communication and

information system to help them address their situation, needs and priorities


Vulnerability Analysis

Socio-economic Vulnerability

• Damage to agricultural land and property, health

Financial Vulnerability

• Financial loss due to loss of Crop, Wage, Additional Expenditures, House Damages, Asset Damages etc.

Material Vulnerabilities-

• Loss of livelihood opportunities

• Risk of recovery

Institutional Vulnerability

• Social obligations and proportion of dependents in the household

• Support function of the quality of governance in a society

• Access to relief services by the community

Attitudinal Vulnerability

• Sense of empowerment

• Proximity to local and regional power structures

• People's knowledge about and attitude towards potential hazards

Spatial Vulnerability

• Risk of soil erosion, sand deposition, river flooding and water logging due to spatial location of village/ land


Socio-economic vulnerability

Socio-economic vulnerability

damage to agricultural land and property, resulting in lost livelihoods for those dependent on the farming sector.

Extent a house is damaged during floods

housing structure

assets inside the house.

Access to potable water

waterborne and gastro-intestinal diseases

Sanitation facilities

Poor sanitation leads to an increase in cholera and gastrointestinal diseases, exacerbated during floods

Water logging leads to increases in vector borne diseases such as malaria affecting both humans and livestock.

Floods cause enormous hardships to all people, but especially to women, children and the aged.

Women suffer from reproductive health problems arising from flood conditions. Their workloads

are increased and they are challenged to meet basic needs of their families, such as obtaining

water or food. Additionally, situations for women's personal hygiene and sanitation are

compromised during flood situations.


Financial vulnerability

and

Spatial vulnerability

Financial vulnerability

Crop Losses

Total Wage Losses

Additional Expenditures

House Damages

Asset Damages

Spatial vulnerability

Villages located close to the River or the embankments are vulnerable to erosion, sand deposition, river flooding and water logging

It is generally the poor and low caste whose land and homes are situated in low-lying areas close to the rivers, especially in flood prone areas.

These villages lack the most basic infrastructure, such as roads, and due to water logging and/or regular deep flooding, most of their lands have become unfit for cultivation.


Material vulnerabilities-

Exposure to specific hazards is a component of material vulnerability, but only a component and not the whole picture. Attention has to be on the social in addition to the physical component as well.

Indicator Discription

Formal education Formal education, as a driver of vulnerability is considered, as

this may be a factor for gaining access to livelihood opportunities

and facilities both in rural and urban areas, although the degree of

importance may differ.

Liquidity of assets Liquidity of assets can be important in terms of helping recovery.

For example, maintenance and selling of farm animals to recover

from flood damage is often an important component of recovery.

It may also include sale of valuable items, e.g., jewellery, scooters,

land etc. However, sale of these assets in some cases can seriously

undermine the resource picture and mobility of the household.


Institutional vulnerability-


Extra-local kinship ties Extra-local kinship ties, although important, are difficult to assess in

terms of their quality. However, there is also evidence that sometimes,

extra-local family members are either unable or unwilling to extend

significant help to disaster victims, possibly because of their own

precarious livelihood situations, and can at times become a burden in

terms of social obligations rather than an asset.

The proportion of

dependents in the

household

The proportion of dependents in the household is similarly

considered to be an institutional vulnerability because the effects of it

are institutionally mediated. Having a large family by itself is not a bad

thing, because of the extra labour that comes with large families in

rural settings. But dependents, particularly young children and the

elderly, in the absence of social systems for taking care of them, can

be a drain on family resources.

The infrastructural

measures

The infrastructural measures are similarly listed as institutional

vulnerability, because they are a function of the quality of governance

in a society. Warning systems are a special case where just the

existence of a warning system is not sufficient, but rather its

credibility and awareness is just as important.

Ethnic minority and/or

a lower caste

ethnic minority and/or a lower caste can be an important factor in

determining vulnerability. Similarly, for ethnic or religious minorities,

sometimes specialized networks can facilitate access to resources for

relief and recovery in addition to employment and education

opportunities.

Social networks and social

capital have been deemed to

be important contributors to

building resilience and helping

recovery from hazards

particularly since they can be

conduits for information,

preparedness, relief and

recovery.


Attitudinal vulnerability-


Sense of

empowerment

Among the attitudinal vulnerabilities, sense of empowerment is

considered to be the key category.

Proximity to local and

regional power

structures

Proximity to local and regional power structures in addition to

a personal sense of efficacy—all self perceived—is evidence of a

sense of empowerment in the face of adversity.

Proximity to power structures can be very effective in terms of

channelling relief and recovery in the aftermath of disasters and

even gaining access to government services in addition to critical

productive resources which otherwise may not be possible for

disadvantaged poor, minority or low caste groups.

People's knowledge

about and attitude

towards potential

hazards

People's knowledge about and attitude towards potential hazards

can also be critical in determining behaviour and vulnerability to

hazards.


Community led village flood risk management plans

Coping mechanisms

Problem prioritization

Accessibility map

Flood mapping

Basic services mapping (to be mounted on social map)

Venn diagrams: (Availability and accessibility to services)

Social mapping of the village


Social mapping of the village

The social map usually gives following information:

How the village is inhabited

Lanes, roads, embankments (mud, brick)

Houses (mud, brick, huts)

Drinking water sources

Electric connection

Community places (temple, health post, school, Public

Distribution System (PDS), shops, Panchayat building)

Caste/religion wise inhabitation/ settlement pattern

• It is a participatory exercise, where community can come forward and actively engage in providing necessary inputs.

• Villagers draw an outline on the ground or chart paper (with the help of a stick/stone or ink marker) showing the place (school, temple or any

place) where everybody is sitting. The adjacent place is also drawn and gradually pen or stick is given to community members who draw adjacent

lanes, houses etc.

Inferences:

• Population: Men, women, children

• Caste structures, number of houses and locations

• Kucha/ Pucca houses

• Occupational patters

• Linkage with services/markets

• Common places (school, community building, Panchayat building etc).

• Cattle

• Other livelihood patterns

• Links of village with roads, markets, bank etc

Venn diagrams

The diagram may provide following information:

• Presence and effectiveness of various departments,

institutions and services.

• Influential persons

• Decision making system in village

Inferences

• Available services (health, education, agricultural inputs, PDS,

bank, Veterinary etc) and linked institutions (PHC, Tehsil,

Lekhpal, Block etc.) during normal, disaster and post disaster

time periods.

• Resources related to disasters (embankments, boats, shelter

homes, floods posts etc).

• Relative effectiveness and usability of the services/institutions.

Cut small circular cards and ask community about the most effective services/ institutions/ resources for managing floods. This is

shown by larger circles. The other services and institutions are asked and according to their effectiveness they are given size of card.

One card showing village is kept in the center and community is asked to place other cards near or far from the village card according

to their physical distances. The reasons for effectiveness and ineffectiveness of services/resources/institutions should be discussed.

Basic services mapping

Inferences

• Households having electric connection

• Households having TV/radio sets

• Community and private hand pumps

• Houses having boats and vehicles

Ask the community members to show the basic services

and their locations on the social map. Different colors

may be used to show different services

Flood mapping

• Ask the community to draw major roads, embankments, rivers,

streams in the vicinity of village which influence the flooding of

village, in some way or the other.

• Let the community explain and mark with arrows how and why

water enters in the village.

• What are blocks in the vicinity which cause water logging, duration

of water logging.

• Ask the community about their `Alarm Criteria' (what level/

reach/ direction of water indicates warnings).

• Ask the community to draw contour line for the water level

(submergence of village) for the highest, medium and lowest

floods, on a recall basis during major flood events.

• The three contour lines, as above may be drawn with different

colors. This will help in identifying the areas of village

submerged/saved during extreme and moderate floods.

Done with community people on the issue of disaster preparedness and planning after analyzing their village

surroundings/geographical topography

This exercise is conducted with 3-4 elderly men and women. They are asked to remember and tell the most devastating disasters in the village. They

may not remember exact dates and year of the events. This may be related with other events like ‗when the first electric connection was given to

village‘, ‗when Gandhi ji came to our village‘, ‗when plague affected the village‘ etc.

Inferences

• Major floods and disasters in the village and the respective

years.

• Trends in occurrence of disaster and its effects.

• Reasons for escalating effects if any.

Accessibility map

• A route map shows the accessibility of escape routes during

flood when the village is partially/completely marooned.

• The route should guide links with major roads as well as

movement within the village.

• The road and water routes will be helpful in evacuation/relief

operations as well as help in accessibility to markets, flood

posts, emergency health services etc.

• Social Map is drawn at the center of a chart paper. Then ask

the community to draw major roads, embankments, rivers and

streams in the vicinity of village.

• Next ask the community to draw the road and water routes

used during floods. They may be asked to emphasize on the

routes which can be used by ordinary boats and heavy boats

(Steamers etc.).

Problem prioritization

The purpose of the exercise to know the problems faced by affected communities in different phase of disaster cycle viz. pre, during and post disaster periods.

This is a group exercise through which it becomes clear that what are the main problems faced by the group and which ones affect maximum number of people.

First the community group identifies various problems which affect the people due to flood/disaster. These problems are written on cards (one problem- one card). Each problem is comparatively discussed and provided a score (out of maximum 10).

In this way 10 is the biggest problem and 1 is the least problem. Each problem gets a number according to its priority.

The reasons for such prioritization should be discussed.

The problem prioritization should be done separately for pre, during and post disaster (flood) periods.

Inferences:

• The problems and its priorities.

• Variation in problems during different periods viz. pre, during and

post disaster.

• Actions taken by communities at local level to address these

problems.

• Possibilities of external linkages to address the prioritized problem.


Coping mechanisms- (Tool: Focus Group Discussion)

The purpose of the exercise to know the problems faced by affected communities in different phase of disaster cycle viz. pre, during and post disaster periods.

This is a group exercise through which it becomes clear that what are the main problems faced by the group and which ones affect maximum number of people.

First the community group identifies various problems which affect the people due to flood/disaster. These problems are written on cards (one problem- one card). Each problem is comparatively discussed and provided a score (out of maximum 10).

In this way 10 is the biggest problem and 1 is the least problem. Each problem gets a number according to its priority.

The reasons for such prioritization should be discussed.

The problem prioritization should be done separately for pre, during and post disaster (flood) periods.

Inferences:

• How the people cope with the disasters:

• Evacuation mechanisms

• Temporary shelters and means of food, fodder,

fuel

• Communication systems

• Health and sanitation aspects

• Care of vulnerable groups (disabled, old persons,

children, pregnant women)

• Drainage system of village

• Drinking water system of the village

• Households having electric connection and wiring

routes

• Sources of Information and mechanisms of

communication

• Toilet arrangements during flood/normal times

• Available boats, vehicles etc and its ownership


THANK YOU

Environmental Profiling

The environmental Profile includes

LandscapeQuality in new development

Derelict and contaminated

land

The natural environment

Coasts marine and the marine environment

The historic environment

The water environment

Energy

TransportWaste

managementAir quality

Climate Change and Vulnerability AnalysisCoDriVE - Community Driven Vulnerability Evaluation

Definition of Climate Change

IPCC: A change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use.

UNFCCC: A change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.

Influence of Climate change on Livelihoods and resources

Sector Impact of Climate Change

Agriculture Agricultural crops adversely

affected

• Crop loss/ Declining yields

• Shift in cropping pattern

• Desertification

• Food and seed storage adversely

affected

Livestock

• Reduced pasture lands

• Less productive

• Harder to maintain

• More prone to Disease

Coastal

Livelihoods

/ Fishery

• Reduction in breeding grounds

• Regional extinction and

migration

• Distribution of fish affected

• Less productive, costlier

Forest • Shift in forest vegetation

• Forest-based livelihoods affected

• Increase in insect pest attacks

and diseases.

• Biodiversity adversely affected

Socio-economic impacts

• Biodiversity will decrease as species die out.

• Floods, droughts, cyclones, forest fires, and heat waves will increase

in intensity and frequency.

• Vector-borne diseases like malaria will spread, and lack of water for

sanitation increases risk for diseases like diarrhoea.

• These pressures will cause socio-economic impacts, with increased

poverty, migration, social and political turmoil.

Sector Impact of Climate Change

Gender • Increase in gender inequality

• Increase in burden for

women in sourcing water

• Increase in health risks

• Women likely to get deprived

of education

Health • Increased health burden

• Increased morbidity and

mortality

• Increased epidemics

• Increase in malnutrition

Water

Resources

• Greater run-off

• Reduced recharge of ground

water

• Available fresh water

decreases

• Increase in water stress

Vulnerability

Vulnerability is of two types:

biophysical and socio-economic. Biophysical Vulnerability: The risk factors in

nature that threaten a community constitute its

biophysical vulnerability.

Socio-economic Vulnerability: socio-

economic vulnerability arises from internal and

external characteristics which constrain its

responses and ability to adapt – poverty,

inequality, marginalisation, food security,

housing quality, access to insurance, alternative

livelihoods, health and education, etc.

Definition of Vulnerability:

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines vulnerability

as “the extent to which climate change may damage or harm a system.” It adds that vulnerability ―depends not only on a system‘s sensitivity, but also on its

ability to adapt to new climatic conditions‖ (Watson et al. 1996: 23).

The IPCC report, The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of

Vulnerability (Watson et al.1998), argues that the vulnerability of a region depends to a great extent on its wealth, and that poverty limits adaptive capabilities. According to the Second Assessment Report, vulnerability depends on the level of economic development and institutions.

Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO): “The presence of factors that place people at risk of becoming food insecure or malnourished, including those factors that affect their ability to cope.” This definition focusses on causes

other than climate change, but underlines the fact that the concept of vulnerability

includes hunger vulnerability, and refers to individuals or communities rather than

broad economic regions or sectors.

http://www.iisd.org/cckn/pdf/va_foundation_final.pdf

Vulnerability of a community or system

SphereDomain

Social Economical Biophysical Physical

Internal • Social networks;

• access to information, education,

security;

• Access to human rights, good

governance;

• Levels of literacy;

• Social equity;

• Positive traditional values;

• Customs and ideological beliefs;

• Health;

• Panchayati Raj

• Institutions (PRIs);

• Local governance in villages.

• Household income;

• availability of loans;

• Source of livelihood;

• Alternative livelihoods.

• Topography;

• Environmental

conditions;

• Soil;

• Water;

• land cover;

• AWC;

• LGP;

• Forest cover.

• Presence of basic public

infrastructure, especially

water supply and sanitation,

as well as adequacy of health

care facilities and supplies;

• Remoteness of a settlement;

• Transportation,

communication networks.

External • National policies;

• International aid;

• Development organisations and

institutions.

• Economic globalisation;

• Inflation;

• Subsidies;

• Insurance.

• Severe storms;

• Earthquakes;

• Sea-level change;

• Temperature and

precipitation variability.

A Community Driven Approach to Evaluating Vulnerability

A typical vulnerability assessment looks from a macro perspective and identifies,

quantifies, and prioritises (rates) the vulnerabilities of a system. It usually follows

these steps:

1. Categorises assets and capabilities (resources) in a system.

2. Assigns quantifiable value (or at least rank order) and importance to those

resources.

3. Identifies the vulnerabilities or potential threats to each resource.

4. Tries to identify how to mitigate the most serious vulnerabilities for the most

valuable resources.

WOTR‘s community driven framework for evaluating vulnerability

WOTR‘s approach to reducing vulnerability

builds on the resilience theory, and considers

the watershed (the main unit of analysis) as a

complex social-economic system (SES)

which has threshold limits and is dynamic.

A resilient SES can withstand shocks and

rebuild itself rather than collapsing past the

threshold limit where it passes into a state

where it is controlled by different processes.

A resilient SES is able to withstand shocks and

absorb change and still retain the same control

of function and structure, has capacity to self-

organise, and to build and increase the

capacity for learning and adaptation.

The process can be described in a resilience

cycle

Resilience cycle

project interventions should aim at keeping the five

livelihood capitals balanced and increasing so that the

system, which depends on these for its support and

sustenance, can maintain its resilience cycle and the

adaptive process is sustained and strengthened

CoDriVE-PD Framework

• CoDriVE-PD conducts the evaluation through a climate

lens scanning the community‘s perception of its situation

vis-à-vis the five livelihood capitals, encompassed by the

resilience theory and systems thinking approach to

synthesise and interpret the findings.

• It is a recombinant tool developed by converging key

aspects of three known international research

methodologies namely, Participatory Tool on Climate and Disaster Risks,

DFID‘s Sustainable Livelihoods Framework and

the Driver-Pressure- State-Impact-Response (DPSIR).

• Thus synthesised, this tool helps not only make an accurate

assessment of the who, what and why of the climate risk

(vulnerability), but also simultaneously helps in designing a

response and incorporating it either proactively during the

design or employed as a mid-course intervention.

Five-step Process to Articulating Vulnerability

Five-step Process to Articulating Vulnerability

In line with the centrality of community to

vulnerability evaluation, the watershed, which is a

social-ecological system in itself, i.e. a living space

and ecosystem in which communities live and draw

their sustenance from, forms the basic unit of

analysis in CoDriVE-PD. Within this unit,

vulnerability to climate change can be evaluated at

three levels:

1. Watershed (village) - for overall ecosystem

vulnerability.

2. Production/Sub- System – for evaluating

vulnerabilities of varied livelihood sectors and

sub-sectors within the ecosystem, e.g.

agriculture, livestock, fisheries, forest-based

livelihoods, human health, non-farm based

sectors.

3. Individual (household) – for evaluating

vulnerabilities of special groups within the

ecosystem.

Once the practitioner determines the level at which the evaluation needs to be made,

the following 5-step process needs to be followed for recording and analysing the

climate constants and variables, making evident the interplay among them, and

generating vulnerability indices

STEP 1

INFORMATION COLLECTION

Building a vulnerability context –―What is happening to the environment and why?‖

STEP 2

ANALYSIS OF INFORMATION

Sensitivity analysis of the responses

STEP 3

ANALYSIS OF INFORMATION

Generate system maps to understand key linkages, critical problem areas, and high leverage points

STEP 4

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Sensitivity analysis of the main resources, in relation to the identified climate risks, that are essential for coping with climate risk in the area

STEP 5

VULNERABILITY CODE

Arriving at the Vulnerability Code

ACTIVITY, EFFORTS INVOLVED and the EXPECTED OUTPUT

PURPOSE OUTPUTS

STEP 1INFORMATIO

N

COLLECTION

1. Identifying the Drivers and Pressures of change

• What was the past like?

• What were the main livelihoods sources then?

• What are the main livelihoods sources now?

• What changes have taken place?

• What triggered these changes?

• What is the current state of rural communities?

2. State and Trends of climate in the region

• What are the community perceptions of their main climate risks/ hazards?

• What is the frequency and time (year/month, etc.) of these climate events?

• What was/is the impact of the above on the community?

• How do communities respond to such events?

• Past history of the village 1960–2000.

• Present village status from year 2000 onwards.

• Drivers and Pressures identified in each

• sectors that have been triggering change.

• List of climate risks in the area.

• Frequency and timeline of the climate risk in the region.

• List of impacts of the climate risks in the region on different livelihood

sectors.

• Consequences on the environment and the

• community.

• Adaptation responses of the communities to the impacts of climate risks.

STEP 2

ANALYSIS OF

INFORMATIO

N

1. Community’s response and perception of adequacy of response to the

above climate risks

• What is the typical response of the community to the climate risks identified?

• How efficient, effective, and sustainable are these responses?

• What is the impact of these changes on the overall ecosystem and community?

(i.e. does it increase or decrease their vulnerability)

• What resources does the community feel it needs in order to cope with these?

After this, a list for the type of resources essential to cope or respond to the related

climate risk are identified.

• Efficiency, sustainability and effectiveness of the response and its impact on

the community and ecosystem and its vulnerability is assessed.

• Resources essential to cope with these climate risks are identified.

• The effective responses that can be amplified through projects are identified.

STEP 3

ANALYSIS OF

INFORMATIO

N

This step involves processing the collected information to find out

Consequences of climatic change risks on the community‘s environment (watershed

village/other natural resources), and why?

• Identification of high leverage points which, if addressed, reduce vulnerability.

• Clear understanding of the existing regional vulnerabilities – ecological and

social point of view.

• Indication of where the community is heading.

• Complete systems map of the current situation.

ACTIVITY, EFFORTS INVOLVED and the EXPECTED OUTPUT

PURPOSE OUTPUTS

STEP 4

SENSITIVIT

Y

ANALYSIS

This step involves processing the collected information to find out

Impact of the climate change risks on livelihood resources and possible

interventions by way of:

1. Conducting sensitivity analysis of all livelihood resources identified in Step 2

using the five capitals at three levels:

• Watershed (village) – for overall ecosystem vulnerability.

• Production system – for evaluating vulnerabilities of varied sub-groups,

clusters within the ecosystem, e.g., agriculture, livestock, fisheries, forest-

based livelihoods.

• Individual (household) – for evaluating individual vulnerabilities within

the ecosystem.

2. Grading these resources; first by the communities on a scale of 1–5, to identify

which of these are highly sensitive to climatic hazards and are essential to cope

with the risks.

3. The grading is finalised based on quantitative data available from the study site

and based on the opinion of experts.

• Key resources that are highly sensitive to climate hazards and essential to cope

with risk arising out of climate hazards at different levels are identified.

• The reasons and contextual information, that help understand why these are

viewed as key resources and considered essential to cope with climate risks, are

noted. This helps develop a better understanding for assessing vulnerability, as

well as for identifying and planning project interventions.

STEP 5

VULNERABIL

ITY CODE

This step involves processing the collected information towards

1. Further fine-tuning the data generated at step 4 by way of:

• Filtering data from Step 4 at different levels by doing another sensitivity

analysis and grading the capitals again, on a scale of 1–5. This step is

however done at the project team level using all the other sources of

information collected so far.

• A multi-dimensional vulnerability code for village or its group or livelihood

system is developed. This provides an indication of the status of each capital.

This code then implies or indicates multi-dimensional vulnerability for that

particular village/group/livelihood system under study, indicating the cause or

reason behind its vulnerability at that point in time.

Time-line of activities to be conducted

• The first day is devoted to

outdoor field work, meeting the

various community members and

local stakeholders, and collecting

data. This includes a transact walk

through the village for the entire

team, to make independent

assessments of conditions.

• The second day will be

employed filling in worksheets,

analysing data, and again meeting

people to fill in gaps found in the

information. Systems maps are

generated.

• On the third and final day,

analysis is completed, vulnerability

codes generated, and required

interventions identified.

If time is not a constraint, the 10-day relaxed approach can be taken up by spacing

out the activities as follows;

Three Day Time-line for a CoDriVE-PD Assessment

DAY ONE

Build vulnerability context and identify states & trends of region’s climate. Collate responses

Elders, Women‘s groups, Special Committees, Village-level Officials

-Organise village level, multi-stakeholder meeting.

- Identify vulnerable groups.

- Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) with village elders, women‘s groups, special committees involved in local governance.

- Transact walk.

- FGD with groups from main livelihood source identified.

- Interview secondary stakeholders from various village-level functions, e.g., line department officials.

DAY TWO

Data sensitivity analysis. Additional discussions, if required. Generate systems maps

Assessment team, External stakeholders, if required

- Fill and analyse data in tool worksheet.

- Secondary literature survey.

- Conduct additional FGDs in case gaps are discovered after analysis.

- Generate systems maps.

DAY THREE

Data updates and analysis. Generation of Vulnerability Code. Identify interventions

Assessment team, Experts from various disciplines

- Add missing data and complete the analysis.

- Generate Vulnerability Code.

-Identify required intervention.

climate change and environmental management services · 2014-08-17 · climate change and...

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