climate change and agriculture: impacts and costs of adaptation
DESCRIPTION
Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change in the Developing World: What will it Cost? IFPRI Policy Seminar October 5, 2009 Washington, DCTRANSCRIPT
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Climate Change and AgricultureImpacts and costs of adaptation
Gerald C. Nelson
Senior Research Fellow
Environment and Production Technology Division
5 October 2009
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Acknowledgements
The IFPRI authors
• Gerald C. Nelson, Mark W. Rosegrant, Jawoo Koo, Richard Robertson, Timothy Sulser, Tingju Zhu, Claudia Ringler, Siwa Msangi, Amanda Palazzo, Miroslav Batka, Marilia Magalhaes, Rowena Valmonte-Santos, Mandy Ewing, and David Lee
Thanks also to
• Ken Strzepek and Adam Schlosser of MIT for downscaled climate scenarios
• Urvashi Narain, Sergio Margulis, Bob Schneider, and other members of the EACC global study report of the World Bank
• ADB staff and reviewers for valuable comments and insights on the ADB report
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Preview of Results
Unchecked climate change will result in a 20 percent
increase in malnourished children by 2050
Agricultural productivity expenditures of over $7 Billion
per year are needed to compensate
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Outline
Climate Change Modeling Methodology
Impacts
• Yields, prices, production, trade
• Calorie consumption, child malnutrition
Adaptation Costs
• Need to reduce malnutrition
Conclusions and Policy Recommendations
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MODELING METHODOLOGY FOR
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
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Location-specific Biological and
Socioeconomic Modeling is Critical
Climate change brings location-specific changes
• in precipitation, temperature and variability to
• local agronomic and market conditions
Modeling challenge – To reconcile
• limited resolution of macro-level economic models with
• crop model detail
Result
• More realistic modeling of climate change effects
(biological and economic) on global/regional agriculture
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Global Change Model Components
Two GCM climate scenarios to show variability
• NCAR (wetter) and CSIRO (drier)
DSSAT crop model
• to estimate biological effects
ISPAM data
• to show where to estimate effects
IMPACT2009
• To integrate biological effects from crop and hydrology
results with detailed economic model
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CLIMATE DATA:
TODAY AND SCENARIOS FOR
TOMORROW
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Temperatures have been rising…
Page 9Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
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… and could increase much more
Source: Figure 10.4 in Meehl, et al. (2007)
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Recent emissions
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
CO
2 E
mis
sio
ns (
GtC
y-1)
5
6
7
8
9
10Actual emissions: CDIAC
Actual emissions: EIA
450ppm stabilisation
650ppm stabilisation
A1FI
A1B
A1T
A2
B1
B2
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100C
O2 E
mis
sio
ns (
GtC
y-1)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Actual emissions: CDIAC
450ppm stabilisation
650ppm stabilisation
A1FI
A1B
A1T
A2
B1
B2
2006
2005
2007
(Avgs.)
2008
Observed emissions are well above A2
simulated emissions
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SRES (2000)
A2 aver.
growth rate for
2000-2010
2.13 %
Observed
2000-2007
3.5%
Raupach et al 2007, PNAS; Global Carbon Project 2009, update
A2
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AVERAGE ANNUAL
PRECIPITATION CHANGE IN
CLIMATE SCENARIOS DIFFER
GREATLY
Watch Sub-Saharan Africa, the Amazon, and South Asia
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Change in Precipitation (mm), 2000-2050
CSIRO, A2, AR4
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Change in Precipitation (mm), 2000-2050
NCAR, A2, AR4
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CLIMATE CHANGE YIELD
EFFECTS
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Climate change reduces average yields
Crop/
management
system
Sub Saharan
Africa
East Asia and
Pacific
South Asia
Irrigated rice
NCAR -14.1 -19.8 -15.5
CSIRO -11.4 -13.0 -17.5
Rainfed maize
NCAR -4.6 1.5 -7.8
CSIRO -2.4 -3.9 -2.9
Rainfed wheat
NCAR -21.9 -14.8 -44.4
CSIRO -19.3 -16.1 -43.7
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AVERAGES CONCEAL GREAT
VARIATION
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Irrigated rice
NCAR A2
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CSIRO A2
Irrigated rice
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Rainfed rice
NCAR A2
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Rainfed rice
CSIRO A2
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Rainfed maize
NCAR A2
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Rainfed maize
CSIRO A2
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FOOD SUPPLY, DEMAND AND
TRADE RESULTS
IMPACT2009
Biophysical effects from crop and hydrology models and
economic effects from global agriculture model
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Climate Change Makes Food Price
Increases Greater
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-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Rice Wheat Maize Soybeans
Do
llars
Per
Metr
ic T
on
2000 2050 No climate change 2050 CSIRO NoCF 2050 NCAR NoCF
Prices increase
without climate
change
Greater price
increases with
climate change
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Rice Production
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Wheat Production
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Large production
increases in some
regions without
climate change
Climate change
eliminates those
gains
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Maize Production
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Cereal Trade Flows
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… and therefore more
imports into
developing countries
Note that CSIRO results
in more exports from
developed countries
Note change in
direction for the
different scenarios
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Climate Change Increases Childhood
Malnutrition
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-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
South Asia East Asia and Pacific
Europe and Central Asia
Latin America and
Caribbean
Middle East and North
Africa
Sub Saharan Africa
Millio
ns o
f C
hild
ren
2000 2050 No CC 2050 with CC
Without climate change, child
malnutrition falls except in
Sub Saharan AfricaWith climate change, child
malnutrition increases
everywhere
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CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
COSTS
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Our Definition of Agricultural Adaptation
Agricultural investments that reduce child malnutrition
with climate change to the level with no climate
change
What types of investments are considered?
• Agricultural research
• Irrigation expansion and efficiency improvements
• Rural roads
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Adaptation Costs are over $7 billion
Required additional annual expenditure
• Wetter NCAR scenario = US$7.1 billion
• Drier CSIRO scenario = US$7.3 billion
Regional level
• Sub-Saharan Africa - $3 billion (40% of the total), mainly for rural roads
• South Asia - US$1.5 billion, research and irrigation efficiency
• Latin America and Caribbean - US$1.2 billion per year, research
• East Asia and the Pacific - $1 billion per year, research and irrigation efficiency
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CONCLUSIONS AND
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
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Conclusions
Climate change will have negative impacts
• Lower yields
• Higher prices
• More malnourished children
• Changes in trade flows reduce the negative effects
Agriculture is critical for
• Poverty reduction
• Economic development and
• Food security
Large additional expenditures should start now to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change
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Policy and Program Recommendations
Design and implement good overall development
policies and programs
Recognize that enhanced food security and climate-
change adaptation go hand in hand
At least $7 billion per year in additional productivity
investments are needed just for climate change
adaptation in developing countries
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Think and Act Globally and Locally
Global public goods are needed
• Improve global data collection, dissemination, and analysis
• Make agricultural adaptation a key agenda point within the international climate negotiation process
• Complete the Doha Round
• Expand international agricultural research
National public goods are needed
• Reinvigorate national research and extension programs
• Build supporting national infrastructure – roads, etc.
• Provide supportive policy environment
Local public goods are needed
• Support community-based adaptation strategies
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