climate change and adaptive human migration dr. robert mcleman department of geography university of...
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Climate change and adaptive human migration
Dr. Robert McLeman
Department of Geography
University of Ottawa
Theoretical & conceptual backdrop
• Migration is but one way by which households may adapt to climate-related stress
• Is not simple stimulus-response process
• Household adaptation options and migration decisions are condition by access to capital
McLeman and Smit 2006
Empirical work
• Highlights from 3 projects
Project 1: Migration vs. other household adaptation options
• Oklahoma 1930s
• Severe droughts, crop failures
McLeman 2006, 2007McLeman et al 2007
Levels of adaptation
Actor/scale
• Governance/ institutions
• Individual farm
Type of adaptation
• Technological improvements
• Programs/subsidies
• Modify farming practices
• Non-farming adaptations
after Smit and Skinner 2002
1930s Oklahoma droughts
Actor/scale
• Governance/ institutions
• Individual farm
Type of adaptation
• Technological improvements
• Programs/subsidies
• Modify farming practices
• Non-farming adaptations
came too late
too costly
already at maximum
1930s Oklahoma droughts
• Adaptation options constrained by access to economic, social, cultural capital
• Particular types of capital facilitated out-migration by young, skilled families
• Feedback effects on adaptive capacity
• Drought areas lost human capital, social cohesion
McLeman et al 2007
Project 2: Demographic change and community adaptive capacity
Toronto
Ottawa
ONTARIO
CANADA
Ontario
AddingtonHighlands
www.addington.uottawa.ca
Observed climatic changes in Addington Highlands
• Shorter, milder winters with less snow
• Earlier spring conditions
• Warmer summers with less variability
• Increasingly windy with occasional micro-bursts (short, high-intensity windstorms)
Demographic change
• Population = 2,500
• Absolute numbers unchanged from 1901
• But…
Demographic change
• Population = 2,500
• Absolute numbers unchanged from 1901
• But… 2006 Population
150 100 50 0 50 100 150
0 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85 years and overN
um
ber
of
Peo
ple
Female
Male
Impacts on adaptive capacity
Risks
• Pressure on health & emergency services
• Fewer people with survival skills
• Social cohesion breaking down
Opportunity
• Skills of newcomers untapped
Project 3: Modeling climate-migration
• Building GIS model to combine climate & demographic data to identify “hotspots’
• Start with western Canada – drought- related migration known to have occurred
• Can we model to local scale areas where severe drought & population decline coincided?
McLeman et al. submitted
Datasets
• Canada census data 1926, 1931, 1936
• Historical climate model data at 10km2 grid cells (McKenny et al. 2006)
• Summer monthly temperature and precipitation data selected for 1926-36
• Organized according to cumulative frequency of relatively hot, dry conditions
Population change 1931-36
Average summer precipitation 1926-36
Average summer temperatures 1926-1936
Combined data sets, 1931-36
Population decline exceeding 10% 1931-36
Thanks!
Dr. Robert McLeman
Assistant Professor
Department of Geography
University of Ottawa
Canada K1N 6N5