Climate Change Adaptation in Water, Agriculture and Livelihood Sectors in Himalaya:

Bridging Gap between Climate Science and Local Level Climate Change Adaptation

Prakash Tiwari Professor of Geography

Kumaun University, Nainital, Uttarakhand, India Email: pctiwari@gmail.com

The Mountains of the World

Source: FAO

4000 km

300 km

Great Himalaya

Middle or Lesser Himalaya

Siwalik or Outer Himalaya

Western Himalaya

[Less Summer and More

Winter Rainfall]

South North

MFT MBT MCT

Himalaya: longitudinal Classification

Eastern Himalaya

[More Summer and Less Winter

Rainfall]

Hydrological Parameters of Principal Rivers of Hindu Kush Himalaya

River Basin

Length (km)

Mean Discharge

(m³/s)

Glacier Melt in River

Flow (%)

Yangtze 6,300 34,000 18.5

Brahmaputra 2,948 19,824 12.3

Ganges 2,057 18,691 9.1

Irrawaddy 2,170 13,565 Small

Mekong 4,600 11,048 6.6

Indus 2,900 5,533 44.8

Salween 2,800 1,494 8.8

Yellow 5,464 1,365 1.3

Tarim 2,030 146 40.2 Source: ICIMOD

Densely Populated

Livelihood Constraints

Poverty and Marginalization

High Food Deficit

Constraints of Infrastructure

Rapid Urban Growth

Himalaya: Highly Vulnerable to Global Environmental Changes

Natural Vulnerability

Human Induced Vulnerability

Young Mountains

Geo-tectonically Alive

High Seismicity

High Altitude

Steep and Fragile Slopes

Large Number of Glacial Lakes

Climate Change Adaptation is multi-institutional and multi-sectoral governance process at local level

Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation [CCA] and Disaster Risk Reduction [DRR] into overall development process is now emphasized by international and national agencies

What is the most scientific spatial unit for climate change adaptation and its mainstreaming at micro-level

How cutting edge state-of-art climate knowledge could to be generated at micro-regional level and transferred to local level institutions

How climate science can help in building adaptive capacity of local level government officials and representatives of community-institutions

How the hydro-meteorological information gap could be bridged-up in Himalaya

How climate knowledge could be integrated in building urban resilience

Climate Change Adaptation in Himalaya: Key Issues

Drought Assessment and Adaptive Resource Management in Uttarakhand Himalaya; in collaboration with Newcastle University, UK [Financial Support from Royal Society, UK under its ‘Global Challenges’ Programme]

Shimla Climate Change Adaptation Partnership Project, in partnership with Urban Climate Research Network [UCCRN], Columbia University, USA; International City Management Council [ICMA]; and International City-Link Programme [City-Link] [Financial Support from USAID]

Urban Climate Change Vulnerability Across Hindu Kush Himalaya; in association with Yale University, USA; University of British Columbia, Canada; and ICIMOD [Financial Support from NASA]

Climate Change Adaptation Tool-kit Development for Uttarakhand Himalaya, in collaboration with Australian National University, Australia; MAIRS, China; and Newcastle University, UK

Kumaun University: Adaptation Initiatives

Forest-Agriculture-Food-Livelihood in Himalaya

Crop Land

Market

Cattle Community

FORESTS [65%]

FOREST [65%]

[Rainfall 15 % Declined and Rainy Days Decreased 10]

Food

Seeds Labour

Fertilizer

Fuel-wood etc.

Livelihood

Fodder

Feed

Manure

Labour

Grasses & By-products

[Only 11% Agricultural Land is Irrigated and Irrigation Potential is Declining]

Conservation & Protection

[75% Population Depends on 15% Cultivated Land]

[Limited Market Access]

[Food Availability 35% Year] [Declined 55%]

Due to Constraints of Subsistence Economy Large Proportion of Male Population Out-migrates and this Leads to Feminization of Resource Development Process and Agriculture in Himalaya

500 m

5000 m

1000 m

2000 m

3000 m

4000 m

50 – 100 km

Approximate Radial Distance

Sub-Tropical Zone, Deciduous Forests, High Population Density

Intensive Cultivation

Lower Temperate Zone, Mixed Forests, Water Scarcity, High

Population Density, Intensive Cultivation

Mid Temperate Slopes, Mixed Himalayan Forests, Acute Water Scarcity,

High Population Density Extensive Cultivation, Horticulture, Vegetable Farming

Sub-Alpine Mountains, Sparse Population,

Extensive Cultivation, Livestock Grazing

Alpine Zone

Intensive Grazing

Alpine Zone

Sub-Alpine

Mountains,

Sparse

Population,

Mid Temperate

Slopes,

High Population

Density

Lower Temperate

Zone, High Population

Density,

Sub-Tropical Zone, Flat Valleys, High Population

Density

River

Rapid Urbanization Increasing Climate Change Vulnerability

T1 T2

T3

T3

Valleys

Mid-slopes and Ridges

High Altitude

Drivers of Urbanization:

Subsistence Agricultural Economy Livelihood Constraints Rural Poverty Population Growth Increased Road Connectivity Improved Access to Market Growth of Tourism Extreme Weather Events 26% Population in Urban areas

Flood Plain Level

Temperature Variations

Increased Rainfall Variability

Variability in Rainy Days

Increase in Foggy Conditions

Increase in Frosty Conditions

Erratic Rainfall

Increase in Extreme Weather Events

Forest and Habitat Loss

Biodiversity Loss

Groundwater Disruptions

Reduced Water Discharge

Drying of Springs

Drying of Streams

Reduced Water Availability

Droughts

Slope Failure and Landslides

Debris Mud Flow

Riverbeds Siltation

Flash Floods

Water Insecurity

Food Insecurity

Forest Fires

Livelihood Insecurity

Frequent Crop Failures

Climate Change in Himalaya: Observed Impacts and Vulnerabilities

Gender Implications

Outmigration

Health Risks

Glacial Lake Outburst Flow

Glacier Melting

Climate Aspects Ecosystem

Impacts Natural Risks Socio-economic

Vulnerability

12.2 9.7

11.2

20.7

33.3

68

72

81

64

37

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Winter

Arunachal Pradesh Sikkim Uttarakhand Himachal Pradesh Jammu and Kashmir West East

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of A

nnu

al P

recip

ita

tion

Monsoon

Precipitation Pattern During Monsoon and Winter Season Across the Himalayan States

Status of Water Resources in Western Himalayan Rain-fed Watersheds [1985 – 2015]

Himalayan State

[Western Himalaya]

Watershed % Natural Springs Dried

Wetland Depleted

(No)

% Water Discharge Declined

Himachal Pradesh Ashwani 25 5 11

Himachal Pradesh Nauti 31 7 15

Himachal Pradesh Dhalli 39 3 25

Uttarakhand Gaula 41 6 47

Uttarakhand Kosi 35 3 37

Uttarakhand Ramgad 40 7 41

Climate Parameters Ramgad Watershed , Nainital, Uttarakhand Summer (June-August) Winter (Nov-March)

Temperature Decrease in Max Temp by 1ºC Decrease in Min Temp by 0.39ºC

Increase in Max Temp by 1.5 ºC Increase in Min Temp by 2.3 ºC

Precipitation Overall increase in mean rainfall by 11% or 55 mm, or total of 559 mm over wet season

Overall decrease in mean rainfall by 15% or 34 mm, or total of 194 mm over dry season

Extreme Events Increase incidences of High Intensity Rainfall, flash floods and flooding

The dry season will become drier Higher temperatures will lead to more severe droughts and forest fires

Projected Climate Trends A1B Scenario (2041-2060) Compared to the Baseline Period (1981-2000)

Source: Australian National University, Canberra, Australia; MAIRS, Beijing, China; Newcastle University, Newcastle, UK for APN Project [Climate Change Adaptation Tool Kit Development in Uttarakhand Himalaya 2014-2017]

Climate Change

Temperature Change

Precipitation Change

Extreme Events

Forest and Biodiversity

Water Availability

Land and Soils

Ecosystem Services

Agriculture

Food Production

Food Security

Livelihood

Community Health

Govt. Agencies,

Community Institutions, CSOs, NGOs,

Charity, Private Sectors

Traditional Knowledge

Climate Information

Water Demand Water Utilization

Adaptive INRM

Natural Disasters

Disaster Risk Reduction

Climate Change Adaptation Mainstreaming in Development Planning: A Multi-institutional Governance Process in Uttarakhand

Livelihood Improvement

Climate Services

Land Use Policy

Capacity Building

Community Participation

Individual

Local

Community

Regional

Top-down and Bottom-up Approaches for Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability and Evolving Adaptation Framework

The Spatial Scale of Adaptation

Uttarakhand: Micro-watersheds

Resource Conservation

Livelihood Improvement Income Generation

Poverty Reduction

Women Empowerment Disaster Risk Reduction

Water Security

Livelihood Security

Food Security

Poverty Reduction

Women Empowerment

Traditional Knowledge

Strengthening Institutions

Improved Governance

Disaster Reduction

Knowledge management

Water Management

Livelihood Diversification

Improving Food Production

Income Generation

Gender Sensitization

Participation

Institutions

Governance

Disaster Management

Integrating Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction at Watershed Level: The Complementariness of Key Components

Inte

grat

ed W

ate

rsh

ed M

anag

em

en

t C

limate

Ch

ange

Ad

aptatio

n

Adaptive Watershed Governance: Connecting Dots

Local Institutions: Key Actors in Climate Change Adaptation Governance

Institutions

Scale Structure Natures

National Local Regional Global Formal Informal Public CSOs Private

Functions

Social Economic Political Developmental Environmental

Government Institutions

Community Institutions

Private Institutions (Private Business Enterprises)

Local Level Government Line Departments (Forest, Irrigation, Water Supply, Agriculture, Livestock, Health Centre etc.)

Panchayat Raj Institutions

Zila Panchayat Block Panchayat Gram Panchayat

Forest Panchayat Self Help Group Swajal Committee Watershed Committee

Identification of Institutional

Mechanism

Village Councils [Village

Panchayats]

Forest Councils [Forest Panchayats]

Non -Governmental Organizations

Civil Society Organizations

Youth Clubs, Schools, Women’s

Associations

Meetings and Consensus

Building

Identification of Sites for

Installation of Weather

Equipment

Government Agencies

Installation of Weather

Equipment

Training of Community

Members and Other

Stakeholders

[SMS] Early

Warning

Monitoring, Recording , Sharing and

Dissemination of Information

Local Level Climate Information: Improving Adaptive Capacity of Community Institutions

Location Map

Ramgad Watershed: Kumaon Lesser Himalaya [Community Based Climate Monitoring]

Nathuakhan

Bohrakot

Nikana

Satbunga

SAMPLE VILLAGES

Bohrakot

Automated Weather Station

Manual Weather Station

Thanks!