climate change adaptation in ben tre by erik keus
TRANSCRIPT
Climate Change AdaptationPriority Activities
Ben Tre, pilot province under the
NTP-RCC Vietnam
Erik Keus (NTP-RCC Ben Tre)
1. Introduction
2. Causes of climate change
3. Adaptation fund
4. Rio + 20
5. Impact Climate Change Ben Tre
6. Adaptation Activities in Ben Tre
7. Conclusions
Overview of Presentation
* Human activity * Natural processes
The temperature has increased by 0,76 °C already
The next decades 0.2°C per decade. Even if the current CO2 level was kept constant it would be 0,1°C per decade.
A temperature increase above 2°C will lead to drastic changes
Source: IPCC (2007)
Global Carbon Project 2010
Anthropogenic Global Carbon Dioxide Budget
Responses
– The last decade has been the warmest on record for global average temperature
– Trends need to be viewed over decades, as there are large year-to year variations
Response
Claim: Volcanoes produce more CO2 then humans
Researchers estimate that volcanoes emit between 0.13 and 0.44 billion metric tons CO2 per year,
Human emissions of 35 billion metric tons CO2 in 2010.
Response
• The link between human activitiesand global temperature change is clear
• The ‘debate’ has been created by a small but vocal group from outside the climate science community
Why there is still debate?
Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; CDIAC 20010
Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions
Time (y)
Annex B (Kyoto Protocol)
Developed Nation
Developing Nations Non-Annex B
1990 2000 2010
5
4
3
2CO2 e
miss
ions
(PgC
y-1) 57%
43%
Top 20 CO2 Emitters & Per Capita Emissions 2009
Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; Population World Bank 2010
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
CHINAUSA
INDIA
RUSSIAJA
PAN
GERMANYIRAN
SOUTH KOREA
CANADA
UNITED KINGDOM
MEXICO
SAUDI ARABIA
SOUTH AFRICA
INDONESIAITALY
BRAZIL
AUSTRALIA
FRANCE (inl. M
onac
o)
POLAND
SPAIN0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Tota
l Car
bon
Emiss
ions
(to
ns x
1,0
00,0
00)
Per Capita Emissions
(tons C person y
-1)
•Finance concrete adaptation projects in developing countries•Over the past two years, $115 million to increase climate resilience in 18 countries.•Under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), emission-reduction projects in developing countries can earn Certified Emission Reduction (CER) credits. (5 USD/ton CO2)• Meet emission reduction targets under the Kyoto Protocol. • Share of proceeds amounts to 2 percent of the value of CERs issued each year for CDM projects.•The fund also receives contributions from governments, the private sector, and individuals.
The Adaptation Fund
•200 litres petrol = 200 x 2.331 = 466.2 kg CO2e•3.5 hectares of mangroves are capable of absorbing the carbon emissions of one typical American passenger automobile per year.•It would take 5.2 metric tons CO2/yr to drive an average car in the US• Mangrove can absorb 150 gr CO2 / m² per year•1 CER Credit = about 6 USD.
Certified Emission Reduction Credit
20 passengers share a boat to cross a river
Due to bad weather boat has to be lighter, but should still accommodate same 20 passengers
Each passenger should be maximum 70 kg including luggage.
So the heavy passenger needs to lose weight quickly.
If can not lose weight quickly buy rights from passenger, who is less then 70 kg.
UNCTAD/Earth Council Carbon Market Partnership
: * Actual annual CO2 emissions are increasing very fast * If CO2 continues to rise unchecked, it is likely that global warming will exceed 4°C by the end of the century * This warming is much greater than the 0.76°C we have already experienced * Local temperature changes might be even higher
Conclusion
• Reaffirmation of previous agreements or worse, a regression from those agreements.
•Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) • Similar to MDG • Will be quantified• MDGs only to developing countries, SDGs are universal
• Natural capital accounting, used alongside GDP to inform decision-making, value natural wealth
Rio+20 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development
1. The financial crisis makes it difficult to raise funds.
2. The climate problem is global – and all countries seek to do as little as possible at home.
3. Western countries fear Asia.4. Old outdated industries have a lot of
power.5. At present there are no leaders (like the
EU was in the past) who can show the way.
Saline Intrusion
Climate Change Adaptation
Priority Activities
National Target Program To Respond to Climate Change
Comprehensive national plan around which all CC efforts can unify•Climate change scenarios•Strengthen Science and technology•Action plans•Integrate CC in socio economic development•Develop capacity•Raise awareness
Danida support:•CCA-NTP: Strengthened Capacity of Central and Provincial Governments to coordinate and implement climate change adaptation interventions through specific pilot interventions. •Develop lessons learned for scaling up in other provinces by 2015. •Budget 25 million USD
National Target Program To Respond to Climate Change
Adaptation activities: • Pilot investment • Studies, design• Models• Coastal protection • Capacity building
•Reduce adaptation deficit•No regret
Why Mainstream CBA into Government pla Planning
• Integration of development activities with CCA activities, avoid overlap.
• PPC can bring all sector needs together, identify overall priorities.
Opportunities for mainstreaming
• Synergy with ongoing development activities• Collaboration with other provinces, development of
MekongNet, integration in MDP• Increase cooperation and information exchange
between sectors• MOU between NTP-RCC and NGOs
Work plan 2010-2011Conversion brackish water to fresh water Water treatment plant construction Rainwater tanks for poorReversed osmosis water treatmentMangrove rehabilitationFarming system adaptationWater supply canal design
ggg
ggg
Freshwater storage for irrigation
Dam to block saline intrusion
Bridge over freshwater inflow canal
Estimated change in production (based on interview 10 HH and commune data)
345 ha. Tiger Shrimp 50 mill. VND 0%
79 ha. Rice 10 mill. VND 300%
135 ha. Sugarcane 15 mill. VND 30%
138 ha. Coconut tree 20 mill. VND 50%
6 – 13 Bn.
Other benefits
900 HH. Vegetables 3.5 mill. VND 3.1
900 HH. Fruit 3.5 mill. VND 3.1
700 HH. Water cost 1.5 mill. VND 1.1
100 HA. Extra area 20 mill. VND 2.0Total 9.3 Bn.
Other benefitsHealth Benefits: less stomach and skin problems
Increased land value
Transport savings: better access by boatIncrease income from livestock,: cows, pigs, poultry
Findings:
Unless profit from shrimp is high/disease is controlled, fresh water crops are more profitable Cost of infrastructure is recovered in one year, could be funded with group loan.
ggg
ggg
Water treatment plant
Target 800 Household connection 20 m3 capacity per hour Cost water VND 5900 per m3 Cost Connection 1 million VND Additional costs for additional pipes
Poor households usually live far from road
Poor households can not afford costs
Each tank is 2 M3 Target group selected by hamlet committee Household needs 10-20 L / day for drinking
and cooking If finished have to buy water or use from
canal For other uses use canal water, sometimes
brackish Design considerations: tap, height, cover,
storm
Capacity 15-40 M3 per day depending on salinity 30-5 ppt
Cost 9000 VND per M3 at lowest salinity Drinking water quality Freshwater usual cost 35.000/M3, Drinking water 15-20.000 VND for 20
liters Local demand may be limited to end of
dry season Distribution and payment complicated Pending further study
Mangrove Planting
Mangrove Planting
Mangroves protect against wind and erosion depending on site
Mangroves create buffer zone, so people can not settle near sea
Mangroves provide income with good management and depending on conditions
Management by household or community
Farming System Adaptation
Farming System Adaptation
Farming System Adaptation
Model development ongoing to adapt to change seasons, variable rain and increased salinity
Cover of soil around water melons with plastic to reduce evaporation
Stock freshwater shrimps (Tom Cang Xanh) in ditches, experiment with tolerance of salinity
Stock brackish water shrimp (Tom Su) in rice fields with salt tolerant rice / alternate with freshwater shrimp in rainy season
Marble goby (Ca Bong Tuong) culture
Total length 114 kmDiameter 0.8-1 mCapacity 74000 m³/day
Freshwater canal design
Freshwater canal design
Will supply freshwater to coastal areaIntake inland where saline water does not reach yetTotal length 114 kmDiameter 0.8-1 mCapacity 74000 m³/day
Conclusions
Climate Change is reality Ben Tre is vulnerable to climate change
Priorities for adaptation selected by PPC on basis of proposals of departments and districts Integrated with development plans Based on local priorities, budget availability and human capacity Before 2015 will share good practices with other provinces