climate change. 2 global carbon cycle (billion metric tons)
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Climate Change
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Global carbon cycle (billion metric tons)
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Global carbon dioxide emissions and concentration
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Historical and Projected Climate Change
•90% chance of temperature rise in the shaded blue area.
•10% chance in the dark blue area.
Source: CBO, Potential Impacts…, May 2009.
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CO2 content by fuel (1 million Btu)
• 99 lbs coal (anthracite)> 227 lbs CO2• 8 gallons gasoline> 156 lbs CO2• 7.2 gallons diesel> 161 lbs CO2• 971 cubic feet natural gas: > 117 lbs CO2
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Greenhouse gas
• Very different from conventional air pollution problems
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Conventional air pollution• SO2
– Pollution impacts increased linearly when pollution increased
– Pollution concentrations fell fairly quickly when emissions were reduced
– Time frame a decade or less– Negative impacts could be reversed by cutting pollution– Good estimate of benefits and costs (if too low initially)– Costs and benefits affected the same generation
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Climate Change• Greenhouse gas (GHG)
– Pollution impacts may rise nonlinearly with increasing GHG concentrations; thresholds may exist
– Pollution concentrations will fall only very slowly when emissions are reduced
– Time frame several decades if not 100 years– Negative impacts may produce irreversible damages– Estimates of benefits and costs are uncertain– Costs and benefits will affect different generations
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Potential Impacts of Climate Change
• Link between emissions and climate• Impacts on:
– Physical environment– Biological systems– Human health– Economy
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Potential Impacts of Climate Change
• Impacts on:– Physical environment
• Temperature– Warm areas get warmer– Patterns in the U.S. shift north
• Precipitation– Dry areas get drier– North gets wetter
• Sea Level– Inundation of some coastal areas, more frequent 100 yr floods
– Biological systems• Slower to adapt• Extinction for some species
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Average Temperatures
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Illustration of Changes in Averages and Extremes in
Temperature and Precipitation
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Potential Impacts of Climate Change
• Impacts on:– Human health
• More insect-borne diseases• More warm-weather deaths• More ozone events• Fewer cold-weather deaths
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Potential Impacts of Climate Change
• Impacts on:– Economy
• Longer growing season, farmers could benefit (if water available)
• West and Southwest will experience even more severe water scarcity (less snow pack, precipitation)
• Less spending for heating, more for cooling• More spending for flood control along coastlines• Aggregate impacts modest, GDP will be 3% lower by
2100.
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Uncertainty Reigns• Linkages:
– Emissions>Concentration>Warming>PhysicaI impacts>Economic impacts
• Linkages subject to very large uncertainty• Possible:
– Nonlinearities– Irreversibilities
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Emissions and Climate
• Ongoing emissions will continue to raise atmospheric concentrations and temperatures indefinitely.
• Even if emissions were cut dramatically today, average global temperature would continue to rise.
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What temperature to expect?• Uncertainties make establishing a range difficult.• 20th Century, planet warmed 0.70 C relative to the
Industrial Revolution• Warming is accelerating: up 0.20 C in each of the past
three decades.• Stern Review: GHG concentrations could triple that
of pre-industrial levels by end of century.• If this occurs, 50:50 chance of 5.00 C rise above pre-
industrial level by end of 21st century.
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CO2 Emissions Are Lower
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Electricity: coal lower; wind, hydro, and natural gas higher
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Market-based Policy Options
• A tax on GHG emissions• A cap-and-trade system (HR 2454)