CLIMATE AND TOURISM: ISLAND ECONOMIES IN AN ERA OF GLOBAL

CHANGE

Dr. Geoffrey Wall

Associate Dean, Graduate Studies and Research

Faculty of Environmental Studies

University of Waterloo

Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3G1

Canada

Phone: 519-885-1211 Ext. 3069

Fax: 519-746-2031

E-mail: gwall@fes.uwaterloo.ca

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Abstract

Many small islands, particularly those in the tropics, rely heavily upon natural resources

of sea, sun and sand as the attractions upon which their tourism industries are based.

However, global climate change, including ozone depletion, may modify these resources

and how they are perceived by the potential clientele leading to the need for such

destinations to adjust to changing circumstances.

Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to result in an increase in

global temperatures which in turn, through thermal expansion of ocean water and melting

of ice, will result in rising sea levels. An associated increase in flooding and erosion on

oceanic shorelines is projected. Such events would place stress on both natural and built

environments on marine coasts.

At the same time, declining atmospheric ozone concentrations may increase the risks

associated with exposure to ultraviolet radiation. Sunbathing is an activity which is

largely confined to residents of the developed western world who constitute a large part

of the current market for island tourist destinations in the tropics. However, the desire to

acquire a tan is a relatively recent fashion which dates from the early years of this

century. Faced with the growing medical evidence of the harmful effects of exposure to

ultraviolet radiation, it is possible that fashions may change leading to modifications in

the experiences sought at sunlust destinations.

Thus, rising greenhouse gas concentrations and declining atmospheric ozone

concentrations may constitute growing challenges for coastal, sunlust tourist destinations,

many of which are small islands with limited alternative economic options.

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Introduction

There are many forms of global change, including climate changes associated with the

greenhouse effect, acid rain and ozone depletion, technological changes including the

computer revolution and information transfer, and population growth and urbanization.

Tourism, with approximately 600 million international participants annually and many

more domestic travellers, and their associated economic, physical and social

consequences, is one such form of social change (Mathieson and Wall 1982). These

phenomena do not exist in isolation but, rather, they interact and their consequences may

be magnified when they are superimposed upon each other. This paper is concerned with

the interaction of two of the above phenomena: climate change and tourism. However, in

this presentation, no attempt will be made to document the importance of tourism or to

consider its implications for climate change, rather emphasis will be placed on the

possible consequences of climate change for tourism.

Although the author has done considerable research on tourism in tropical locations, most

of his investigations of climate change have been undertaken in temperate and cold

climates, especially in North America, including studies of the ski industry (McBoyle and

Wall 1986), national parks (Wall 1989, Staple and Wall 1996), wetlands (Wall and

Costanza 1986), camping (Wall et al. 1986), and marinas and recreational boating

(Bergmann-Baker et al. 1995). Nevertheless, given the location of this symposium,

emphasis will be placed upon the implications of climate change for tourism in islands,

particularly those in tropical locations.

Many small islands, particularly those in the tropics, rely heavily upon natural resources

of sea, sun and sand as the attractions upon which their tourism industries are based.

However, global climate change, including ozone depletion, may modify these resources

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and how they are perceived by the potential clientele leading to the need for such

destinations to adjust to changing circumstances. It will be argued that, with respect to

climate, the past may no longer be an adequate guide to the future and that climate

change may be be one factor among many worthy of inclusion in tourism planning and

investment decisions.

Given this context, the purpose of this presentation is to:

A. indicate the state of scientific knowledge concerning global climate change;

B. examine the implications of such change for small island destinations;

C. comment upon the possible consequences of ozone depletion for tourism; and

D. assess the extent to which tourists and tourism businesses can adapt to climate change.

A. The Greenhouse Effect and Climate Change

The topic of the greenhouse effect and climate change is plagued with uncertainty. In

such circumstances, it would be easy to dismiss the subject as being unworthy of concern

until more definitive information becomes available. It is contended that this would be

an unwise approach. Rather, the attempt should be made to reduce the level of

uncertainty by distinguishing that which is known from that which is not known or, in

other words, fact should be separated from fiction. This is the immediate objective.

The Greenhouse Effect

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The greenhouse effect results from a natural process which is well understood. Incoming

short-wave radiation from the sun passes through the earth's atmosphere. This energy is

re-radiated at longer wave-lengths which are intercepted by the so-called greenhouse

gases. The heat which is trapped by these gases is vital to life on earth. In the absence of

these gases, the energy would be lost to space and the earth would be approximately 30

degrees C. colder than it is now. Thus, the processes leading to the greenhouse effect are

well known.

Greenhouse Gases

Most of the gases in the atmosphere have little effect upon the earth's radiation balance:

both solar and terrestrial radiation pass through them with little hindrance. On the other

hand, there are a number of gases which constitute only a small proportion of the

atmosphere but which have a profound effect. The major greenhouse gases are carbon

dioxide, which is particularly associated with fossil fuel combustion and deforestation;

methane, which is probably derived from agriculture, especially rice cultivation and

animal husbandry; nitrous oxide which is possibly from the use of nitrogenous fertilizers,

land clearing, biomass burning and fossil fuel combustion; and halocarbons, particularly

chlorofluorocarbons, which were introduced into the atmosphere for the first time this

century.

Until the Industrial Revolution, the levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases

produced and consumed were in equilibrium, although they may have fluctuated

sufficiently over long periods of time to contribute to ice ages and interglacial periods.

However, since the Industrial Revolution, human activities have been releasing ever-

increasing quantities of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Increasing concentrations

of these gases have been measured (Figures 1 to 4) and Figure 5 presents a summary of

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their concentrations and principal sources (Siegenthaler and Oescheger 1987, Craig and

Chou 1982, Rasmussen and Khalil 1984, Bolin et al. 1986, Bolle et al. 1986). Rising

concentrations of greenhouse gases are a fact.

Evidence for Global Warming

Knowledge of atmospheric processes, coupled with rising concentrations of greenhouse

gases, have given rise to the suggestion that the earth's climate should be warming.

Evidence for global warming is derived from three main sources: the paleo-

climatological record; recent temperature observations; and General Circulation Models.

These will now be considered in turn.

The Paleo-climatological Record

Records derived from ice cores taken from the Antarctic show a remarkable correlation

between carbon dioxide concentrations and temperature over the last 160,000 years

(Barnola et al. 1987) (Figure 6). Temperatures are derived from analyses of oxygen

isotopes in the ice core record. Two very large increases in temperature and carbon

dioxide are shown at approximately 15,000 BP and 140,000 BP. The high carbon

dioxide levels of 280 ppm correspond to the pre-industrial concentration some 100 to 300

years ago. Current concentrations at approximately 350 ppm lie off the top of the graph.

Although the correlation is striking, it does not prove cause and effect, only that there

was a strong relationship between carbon dioxide concentrations and climate variations in

the past. It is not possible to conclude with certainty rthat these relationships will hold in

the future. The ice core record can be viewed as providing strong, but not conclusive,

circumstantial evidence of a link between carbon dioxide concentrations and temperature.

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Recent Temperature Observations

Given that concentrations of greenhouse gases have been increasing, and the likely links

between such gases and temperature, one might look to the temperature record to see if

an increase in temperature can be detacted. Figure 7 shows temperature trends over the

past century (Jones et al. 1982). The vertical axis is the temperature change from the

average temperature for the 1951 to 1980 period. The analyses exclude urban locations

which are likely to have experienced heat island effects but include data from marine data

bases to provide both land and sea coverage. The global trends indicate a 0.5 degree C.

rise in temperature. Similar studies by NASA scientists (Hansen and Lebedeff 1987)

suggest a 0.7 degree C. rise but their results are acknowledged to include a 0.1 to 0.2

degree urbanization effect and do not include ocean data.

Climate is inherently variable and temperatures have always fluctuated and will continue

to do so. The seemingly small changes in the temperature record are in line with what

would be expected from greenhouse gas concentrations and, in fact, many of the warmest

years on record globally have been experienced in the 1980s and 1990s. However,

because the changes are small numerically it is not possible to be certain that they are real

changes resulting from an enhanced greenhouse effect rather than a warm period

associated with climatic variability. In the jargon, it is difficult to separate the signal

from the noise. Again, the evidence is strong but not conclusive.

General Circulation Models

Implications of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases for global climate have

been investigated through the application of General Circulation Models (GCMs). These

are complex mathematical models which simulate links between temperature,

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atmospheric circulation, the hydrological cycle, oceans and the cryosphere. A small

number of such models is in operation and, although there are differences in model

resolution and in the way certain atmospheric and oceanic processes are treated, there are

a number of similarities in their projections of future climate. These are discussed further

below.

Thus, while the paleo-climatological record, recent temperature observations and Global

Circulation models do not provided conclusive evidence of global warming, they are

mutually re-inforcing and provide strong, circumstantial, grounds for believing that

greenhouse warming is a reality.

The Magnitude of Climate Change

The three-volume report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (under the

United Nations Environmental Program and the World Meteorological Organization)

(IPCC 1990), and recent updates (IPCC 1996), indicate that there is considerable

international agreement on the science of global warming (although much less agreement

on what should be done about it!).

All greenhouse gases are known to be increasing as the result of human activities and

their combined future effect may be the equivalent of a doubling of the concentrations of

carbon dioxide by the 2030s, i.e. in less than half a century. Such a doubling may induce

global surface temperature increases of between 1.5 and 4.5 degrees C. The 1996 IPCC

report is slightly more cautious, suggesting a range vof between 1.5 and 3.5 degrees C. by

the year 2100 with the best estimate being 2 degrees. The reduced estimates are

associated with increases in particulate pollution which reflects incoming radiation so the

more cautions estimates are notthe result of a benign phenomenon.

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The impact of this warming is expected to be greatest in high latitudes, particulation early

in autumn and winter. Equatorial regions should experience a lesser but still substantial

warming. Less confidence can be placed in assessments of the future distribution of

precipitation. There may, however, be reduced moisture availability, particularly in

middle latitudes, because of increased evapotranspiration coupled with an increased

demand for water. Sea-level may rise between 13 and 94 cm (probably towards the lower

end of this range) chiefly because of the thermal expansion of ocean waters and,

secondarily, because of glacial melting.

In this complex chain of events, some projections are more reliable than others.

Forecasts of changes in sea-level are probably more reliable than those of the climate of

land areas; estimates of air temperature are more reliable than estimates of precipitation;

and forecasts of latitudinal (north-south) changes are more reliable than projections of the

likely changes from east to west across continents.

Although there are many uncertainties, there is sufficient evidence that climate change

will occur in the coming decades and that it may produce serious consequences to suggest

that it is worthwhile to seek better information than is currently available on possible

impacts and the potential for adapting to the changing circumstances.

B. Implications of Climate Change for Island Destinations

Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to result in an increase in

global temperatures which in turn, through thermal expansion of ocean water and melting

of ice, will result in rising sea levels. An associated increase in flooding and erosion on

oceanic shorelines is projected. Such events would place stress on both natural and built

environments on marine coasts.

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Coastal Resorts

The economies of many small islands, particularly those in the tropics, is dominated by

tourism which is concentrated in coastal locations. The importance of beaches is

illustrated by figures for Hawaii which indicate that its beaches are used by more than 80

percent of its annual tourist population. The 2.5 km long Waikiki beach had 5.1 million

visits in 1983-84 which amounts to a space of two to three square metres per person in

peak periods (Bardach 1989). Anything which threatens these resources or the associated

infrastructure is ominous for the economies of coastal resorts. Rising sea levels may

have far-reaching consequences for coastal resorts and, in some cases, may actually

threaten the very existence of some small islands. The physical processes involved in sea

level rise are discussed thoroughly by Bird (1993) and, specifically for the

Mediterranean, by Jeftic, Milliman and Sestini (1992). However, although both works

discuss implications for human activities, there is only passing mention of tourism.

Rising sea levels threaten beaches which are unable to extend inland because of the

existence of built structures. For example, the majority of coastal resorts in the United

States would have no beach at high tide by 2025 under a mid-range scenario of sea level

rise. A one-foot rise in sea level would generally cause beaches to erode 50 to 100 feet

from the Northeast to Maryland; 200 feet along the Carolinas, 100 to 1,000 feet along the

California coast, 200 to 400 feet along the California coast and, perhaps, several miles in

Louisiana. Expensive beach protection and restitution measures may be required for

communities whose economic welfare depends on the availability of sand and may be

justified economically for most resorts to 2025 (Smith and Tirpak 1990).

Sanitation systems and fresh water supplies may be threatened by rising water levels and

salination of coastal estuaries, and potable fresh water supplies may be reduced when

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seawater infiltrates subterranean water tables. Should the frequency of tropical storms

increase then there may be additional threats to coastal infrastructure from storm and

flood damages. Damages from tropical storms has been increasing over the last two

decades but it is not clear whether this is due to increasing storm frequency or greater

property at risk. What is clear, however, is that it is becoming increasingly difficult to

acquire insurance for development projects in vulnerable locations.

Lindh et al. (1989) have reviewed the efficacy of structural measures for beach protection

in a Finnish context and Coker et al. (1989) have succinctly summarized coastal policy

options as do nothing, planned retreat or protect. However, the viability of these options

is likely to vary with the site. A current policy dilemma is that many coastal protection

schemes, and other tourism investments, have long lives and there is a need to make

investments such that future options are not unduly foreclosed.

Natural Areas

Natural areas will also be modified by climate change and associated modifications in sea

level, thus altering the potential for diversifying the tourism product. For example, rising

ocean temperatures may inhibit the growth of corals and widespread reports of coral

bleaching suggest that it may be a result of higher temperatures in tropical seas (Brown

1990, Williams and Williams 1990).

Marine wetlands are one environmental setting which has received some attention in the

context of global climate change, particularly from the perspective of rising sea levels

(Titus 1988). These are environments which have been declining in area as a result of

subsidence and the encroachment of other land uses. According to Titus (1988), there are

three major ways by which sea level rise can disrupt wetlands: inundation, erosion, and

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saltwater intrusion. In some cases, wetlands will be converted to bodies of open water; in

other cases, the type of vegetation will change but a particular area will still be wetland.

However, if sea level rises sufficiently slowly, the ability of wetlands to grow upwards -

by trapping sediment or building upon the peat the sediment creates - can prevent sea

level rise from disrupting the wetlands. The factors principally responsible for

determining accretion rates are sediment loads, current velocity, and flooding frequency

and duration. Tidal range, tidal regularity and substrate type also influence marsh

boundaries and therefore help to determine adjustments to rising sea levels (Armenato,

Park and Cloonan 1988).

Along undeveloped coasts, rising sea levels will drown the seaward wetlands but will

allow new wetlands to be created inland as formerly dry land is flooded. However, the

impact of sea level rise on coastal wetlands will depend largely on whether developed

areas inland of the marsh are protected from rising sea levels by levees and bulkheads.

Along developed coasts, there may not be land available for wetland creation.

Energy and Water Supplies

Many small islands have great difficulty in providing reliable supplies of potable water

and energy. Tourists are voracious consumers of both water and energy. Even small

increases in temperature could increase the demands for electrical energy for air

conditioning in tropical islands and, through increased evapotranspiration, reduce the

availability of water. Furthermore, if energy and water are in short supply, recreation

will come increasingly into competition with other uses of these scarce resources.

C. Ozone Depletion and Tourism

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Reliable sunshine is one of the major tourism assets of tropical islands. Sunbathing is an

activity which is largely confined to residents of the developed western world who

constitute a large part of the current market for island tourist destinations in the tropics.

A suntan is often regarded as enhancing attractiveness and is fashionable among such

groups (Miller et al. 1990). However, the desire to acquire a tan is a relatively recent

fashion and sunbathing has only been a popular activity since the early years of this

century. Prior to that time, prevailing aesthetic tastes in western societies preferred a pale

complexion to a tan. One wonders if positive attitudes towards sunbathing will be

maintained in the face of climate change and increasd exposure to UV radiation

associated with ozone depletion.

Last (1993) has suggested that research is needed on attitudes towards sunbathing and the

use of protective measures. Weather advisory messages warning about safe exposure

levels have been used routinely on Australian radio and television for some years and

were introduced in Canada in 1992 but such advisories are not part of routine weather

reports in the United States. Sunscreen ointments and creams require rigorous

evaluation. Although there are reports of the protective effect of sunscreen against

sunburn, their efficacy in preventing skin cancer and malignant melanoma remains

unclear. Should health education be employed to persuade people to relinquish the

notion that a suntan is desirable? If so, research is needed to identify and evaluate ways

to do this. What are the implications of such attitude changes to coastal communities

whose economies are based upon the sale of sea, sun and sand?

It is not being suggested that tourists will abandon sunny climates but it may be expected

that there behaviours in resort areas may be modified, with less time being spent on the

beach or by the pool. Thus, the challenges to resorts associated with rising sea levels

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may be exacerbated by changing tastes among their clientele precipitated by increased

recognition of the health effects of diminishing ozone concentrations.

D. Adapting to Climate Change

Although efforts are being made to curb the production of greenhouse gases, it is likely

that we are already committed to some amount of climate modification. Both natural and

human systems are adapted to an unknown extent to much of the variability in current

climates and it is changes in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events through

which the implications of climate change will most likely be imposed.

Two main groups can be considered with respect to the potential to adapt to climate

change. These are the tourists themselves and the businesses which cater to them. Each

will be considered in turn.

Tourists

A great deal of money is invested in recreational equipment. However, much of this

equipment is mobile. By definition, recreational and tourism participation is undertaken

by choice and, although choices are not unconstrained, a great deal of flexibilty is

involved. Tourists have considerable choice concerning whether or not to travel, when

and where to go, and what activities to participate in. In fact, since the products of

tourism are experiences, participants may be able to substitute activities and locations

without a great deal of loss in the quality of their vacation. If mid-latitude locations

become warmer, it is even possible that the desire to visit the tropics may be reduced. It is

true that those wishing to observe particular species of plants and animals may find them

less accessible or replaced by others, and fishermen may be required to change their

quarry in particular locations, but in so far as there are still tourists resorts, wild spaces

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and provision of tourism opportunities, most potential tourists are likely to be able to

acquire satisfactory experiences.

Businesses

The flexibility of tourists may be a problem for those catering to them. Much

recreational provision, be it hotels, campgrounds, marinas or national parks, is fixed in

location with sunk capital that cannot readily be liquidated and re-invested. If the quality

of the tourism resources and associated experiences is degraded or if the infrastructure is

threatened by increased frequency of extreme events such as floods or storms, then there

may be considerable economic dislocations for recreational businesses and the

communities on which they depend. However, there are likely to be both winners and

losers as participants exercise their choices in modified ways.

Conclusions

Future patterns of tourism in small islands and elsewhere will be influenced by the

magnitude of climatic change; the rates at which change occurs; the extent to which

critical thresholds of change are exceeded; the degree of permanence of future climatic

states; and future levels of climatic variability.

While rising sea levels associated with the greenhouse effect may erode beaches and

affect the infrastructure of marine coastal resorts, the tastes of their clientele may also

change reflecting health concerns associated with ozone depletion and the risks of

exposure to ultraviolet radiation. Such trends would constitute substantial challenges for

coastal, sunlust tourist destinations, many of which are small islands with limited

alternative economic options. However, with the exception of a limited number of

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speculative papers (Smith 1990, Wall 1992, 1993), such issues have received little

attention from tourism researchers.

In spite of the growing evidence of the likelihood of climate change, climate is often

treated as being constant or as a set of background variables in tourism planning. For

example, in a recent book entitled "Futures for the Mediterranean Basin: The Blue Plan",

Grenon and Batisse (1989, 6) acknowledge that global warming will bring about a

general rise in the sea-level and they admit that climate change "would have serious

consequences, notably for agriculture and the hydrological regime. Ensuing changes in

the thermal structure of water bodies could also produce modifications in marine

currents, which would in turn affect air currents in the region." However, climate is

discussed under the heading of "Permanent Features" and without reference to tourism.

Correspondence with member nations of the World Tourism Organization and the World

Meteorological Organization indicates that almost all acknowledge the importance of

climate for tourism but virtually none has given serious thought to the implications of

global climate change for tourism and recreation (Wall and Badke 1994). This is a

serious oversight at a time when mankind may be facing one of the most rapid, global

climate changes in human history. Fortunately, the most recent global assessment of the

possible impacts of climate change (IPCC 1996) makes a little more mention of tourism

than its predecessor and a recent presentation by Elizabeth Dowdeswell, Executive

Director of the United Nations Environment Programme, to the World Tourism

Organisation indicated the need for greater recognition of the issue and a need to

collaborate in its investigation.

Global climate change will present challenges for the sustainabilty of small islands and

will have implications for the contribution which tourism might make to sustainable

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development. The climate changes which have been discussed are projected to occur

within the lifetimes of many current investment projects and within the lifetimes of many

of the earth's present residents. Although the implications for tourism are likely to be

profound, very few tourism researchers have begun to formulate relevant questions, let

alone develop methodologies which will further understanding of the nature and

magnitude of the challenges which lie ahead.

Acknowledgements

This paper is an update of Wall, G.(1996) "The implications of climate change for

tourism in small islands" in Briguglio, L., Archer, B., Jafari, J. and Wall, G. (eds)

Sustainable Tourism in Islands and Small States: Issues and Policies. London: Pinter,

206-216.

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