Climate and CitiesUnderstanding the Risks and Costs

Warren Evans, Director, Environment Department The World Bank

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Balancing Mitigation and Adaptation Cities and urban areas consume 75 per cent of the world’s energy and produce nearly 80 per cent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions.

The battle to prevent catastrophic climate change will be won or lost in our cities.

Millions of urban dwellers and businesses will be adversely impacted by climate change

Minimizimng devastating social, economic and environmental impacts requires action NOW to increase climate resilience

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Balancing Mitigation and Adaptation At the World Bank1993 Began implementing / leveraging GEF funding for

climate change1999 Pioneered carbon finance through $180m prototype

Carbon Fund- now at over $2 billion carbon funds1999 ”Fuel for Thought” Environment Strategy for the

energy sector2001 Environment Strategy with climate change pillar 2006-8 Clean Energy Investment Framework (CEIF):

(i) increased energy access, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa;

(ii) accelerated transition to a low carbon energy economy;

(iii) adaptation to climate variability and change. 2007 IDA and Climate Change Paper2008 Strategic Framework on Climate Change and

Development; Sustainable Infrastructure Action Plan

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Six Areas for Action• Support climate actions in development processes• Mobilize concessional and innovative finance• Facilitate development of innovative market

mechanisms• Leverage private finance• Accelerate development and deployment of new

technology• Step up policy research, knowledge and capacity

building

Six Areas for Action• Support climate actions in development processes• Mobilize concessional and innovative finance• Facilitate development of innovative market

mechanisms• Leverage private finance• Accelerate development and deployment of new

technology• Step up policy research, knowledge and capacity

building

World Bank Strategic Framework on Development and Climate Change

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Six Climate ThreatsTop 12 Countries Most at Risk from Each

Drought Flood Storm Coastal 1m Coastal 5m Agriculture

Malawi Bangladesh PhilippinesAll low-lying Island States

All low-lying Island States

Sudan

Ethiopia China Bangladesh Vietnam Netherlands Senegal

Zimbabwe India Madagascar Egypt Japan Zimbabwe

India Cambodia Vietnam Tunisia Bangladesh Mali

MozambiqueMozambiqu

eMoldova Indonesia Philippines Zambia

Niger Laos Mongolia Mauritania Egypt Morocco

Mauritania Pakistan Haiti China Brazil Niger

Eritrea Sri Lanka Samoa Mexico Venezuela India

Sudan Thailand Tonga Myanmar Senegal Malawi

Chad Vietnam China Bangladesh Fiji Algeria

Kenya Benin Honduras Senegal Vietnam Ethiopia

Iran Rwanda Fiji Libya Denmark Pakistan

Middle IncomeLow Income High Income

Dimensions of the Need for Climate Change Response

Source: World Bank staff.

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Climate Risks Are Higher for Poor Countries

Source: World Bank staff.

Dimensions of the Need for Climate Change Response

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Impacts on Agriculture…

Where will rural families go? Where will rural families go?

Adaptation: the example of Africa

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How Much Does Adaptation Cost?There Are Some Estimates, but the Ranges Are Wide and Uncertain

Developing Countries — Estimated Cost of Adaptation by 2030

Dimensions of the Need for Climate Change Response

The implied change in temperature is 1.5º C for 2030

Cost estimates based on expert opinion

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Dimensions of the Need for Climate Change Response

Good Adaptation is Cost-Effective

Source: European Environment Agency.

Investment in physical infrastructure

Sea level rise likely to carry high costsAdaptation (dark green) buys a large reduction in climate change costs (light green)

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Available Resources

GEF$ 0.25 bllnfor FY09

World Bank Group

(IBRD/IDA/IFC/MIGA)$1.9 billionfor FY09

Carbon Market: CDM&JI

< $ 8 billionfor FY09

UNDP$ 0.90-120 blln for adaptation

GFDRR $ 0.07 blln

Adaptation Fund

$ 0.3-0.5 blln

Climate Investment Funds by MDBs

$ 6 billion

FY09 estimates are projections

Both

GEF$ 0.25 blln

Main Resourcesto address

Climate Change

Other MDBs$3 billionfor FY09

EUGlobal Climate

Change Alliance€ 0. 3 blln

Huge Gap

Adaptation(Total Needs est. $28-67bn / year)

Mitigation(Total Needs est.$170bn+ / year)

Dimensions of the Need for Climate Change Response

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URBAN RISKS - Resilience

Understand vulnerabilities including displacement

Understand structural relationships> potential failures in urban systems

Understand conflicts between built and natural environment

Understand capacity to recover> Livelihoods and poverty

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Where People are going…o To citieso To coastso Of 30 largest cities, 20 in coastal areas o Thousands of smaller cities and towns at risk

o Coasts will be movingo Should be considering provision of

infratructure for cities on new coastline

o Should be considering space for “new” natural areas

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Barriers

A. Complexity- lack of knowledgeB. Lack of awarenessC. Lack of integration between and

across government and other stakeholders

D. Lack of resources

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Revitalizing Spatial Planning

o Surge in informal settlementso Economic pressures o Short-sighted development

o Optimizing mitigation and adaptation actionso Harmonizing natural and built infrastructureo Political leadership

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Ecosystem-based vs Infrastructure Solutions

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Two Major New Initiatives

Climate Resilient CitiesA Primer onReducing Vulnerabilities to Disasters

and

Climate Change Impact and Adaptation In Asian Coastal Cities

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Climate Resilient CitiesA Primer onReducing Vulnerabilities to Disasters

o The Primer outlines city typologieso It integrates climate change with DRMo It presents a “hot spot” tool for identifying city-

specific priorities for actiono It identifies both adaptation and mitigation

strategies at the local level, based on learning from regional and global sound practices

o The Primer is applicable to a range of cities - from those starting to build awareness on climate change to those with climate change strategies and institutions already in place

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Objectives of the Primero To understand the issues and impact of climate

change at the city levelo To engage in a participatory approach to

establish vulnerabilities to potential climate change impacts

o To learn about the why and the how through illustrative examples from other cities

o To build resilience to future disasters into planning and design through no-regrets endeavors

o To understand the requirements for moving from theory to practice

o To engage in partnerships and shared learning with other cities facing similar problems

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Program Components

A. Develop local resilience action planso Populate Hot Spot risk assessment matrix and

compile City Information Base (Primer tools)o Identify priorities for action & design feasible

programsB. Strengthen national and local partners for

implementation scale-up in initial countrieso Identify and engage national/ local partners at

outsetC. Scale up implementation of resilience action plan

development to 100 cities in East Asia

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Climate Change Impact and Adaptation In Asian Coastal Cities

Joint World Bank, ADB, JICA (formerly JBIC) Institute study Future climate-change induced flood implications for 2050 Bangkok, HCMC, Kolkata, Manila

Objectives Strengthen the understanding of the economic, social and

environmental impacts of climate variability & change, and the vulnerabilities of the urban community

Provide a set of options to mayors, national level decision makers and urban planners on key policy measures needed to address adaptation to climate change in coastal cities

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Area affected by regular floods driven by heavy monsoon rains and high tides will and flood duration will increase

Salinity intrusion will increase

Extreme events will increase Storm surge the key driver for extreme events and the most damaging and influential of climate change parameters

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Significant risk of water shortages during the dry season due to water quantity and quality. Urban population likely to be much higher than projections, in part due to climate change refugeesSurface and ground water treatment plants are at risk of flooding and salinityTransportation network affected