client presentation on egps fundamentals
TRANSCRIPT
EnergyGPSWest Power and Gas Fundamentals
March 18th, 2015Client Presentation
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Company Overview
• EnergyGPS LLC (EGPS) was formed in 2009 with the goal of providing analysis and insights to energy traders. We provide in-depth, independent research and reporting that helps traders identify profitable trading opportunities and assess risk and uncertainty.
• On a daily basis, EGPS scrapes data from more than 400 web sites, produces graphical, web-based analysis depicting key factors and trends, and provides traders with our insights via email and written reports. EGPS is staffed with former energy traders who are available to discuss our insights or address client’s questions.
• The key to EGPS’ service is that we have the data, analytical capability, and trading experience which enables us to synthesize vast amounts of information and concisely articulate what factors and trends will matter to energy traders. We are able to look at the market through a trading lens and articulate risk/reward trade-offs.
• We provide clear analysis with transparent assumptions so that traders can easily understand our analysis and calibrate our findings if they have different assumptions than we do. EGPS recognizes the importance of providing information to clients that will directly lead to profitable trading opportunities and to assist in understanding risk.
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Business Lines
• Consulting– Renewables– Asset Management– Transmission– ISO analysis– Energy Imbalance Market (EIM)– California Carbon (CARB)
• Power and Natural Gas Fundamental Product– Supply/Demand balances
• Power – PNW/California/DSW/Rockies• Natural Gas – Regional Pipeline Supply/Demand
– Daily/Weekly/Monthly market commentary– Interactive analysis– Automated reports/alerts– Website access– EnergyGPS staff access
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Philosophy
Data
Acquire
Understand Analyze
Insight
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Team
• Original– Jeff Richter– Tim Belden
• Support Staff– IT Staff– Analysts
• Key Additions– John Oh– Carlos Torres
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Team Profile
• Jeff Richter: Energy Trading industry for over 15 years where the focus has been on Fundamental Analysis and Trading for companies such as Enron, UBS, and Saracen Energy. Spent time at Bentek Energy where he integrated both the power and gas fundamentals into one common platform
• Tim Belden: Drawn to the energy space because it presented interesting environmental challenges. He has worked numerous capacities in the wholesale and retail energy markets, and has positioned himself to analyze and understand the interplay between energy policy, traditional wholesale energy markets, and emerging renewable and carbon markets
• John Oh: 10 years of industry experience mainly focused on market fundamentals. Worked for companies such as Constellation, EDF Trading and most recently Centaurus Energy. His unique skillset of trading and computer science allows him to build pertinent/reliable reports for clients
• Carlos Torres: Over 12 years experience analyzing natural gas with his main focus on Canada and the Western United States. Over the past four years, he has put his analytics to work trading at Centaurus and most recently TransAlta
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Product Overview
• EnergyGPS product packages offer market fundamental analysis and insight from energy traders with decades of collective experience in the power and natural gas markets. When you subscribe to one of our packages, you can expect personal, in-depth coverage from someone who knows how to filter through vast quantities of data and find those actionable nuggets that illuminate what’s happening and help inform your daily outlook.
• Our detailed independent research and insight helps traders identify profitable opportunities and assess risk and uncertainty. We also provide valuable coverage of larger macro trends of interest to managers and other industry professionals who may not be day to day traders themselves.
• Our approach is to first collect the most complete information there is and then deliver it to you along with value-added analysis as soon as possible, every hour of the day. We start with the data. Every day we track and synthesize data from more than 150 different industry websites we monitor. We then produce graphical and written analysis with our unique take on what is happening in the larger markets.
• We often discuss our market views in detail with clients so you have the opportunity to stress test ideas and positions. For example, what would happen if river flows increase in the next week? What is the next key load level that could trigger higher prices? What does the supply portfolio look like with different plant-outage assumptions? Depending on what’s happening on any given day, the potential questions are numerous. Our writing and analysis is always geared toward understanding what’s happening right now – and what’s likely to happen next.
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Product Expectations
When you subscribe to one of the EnergyGPS product packages, you can expect to receive a steady stream of reports, written analysis, and market alerts. Paid subscribers can access all of their content on the EnergyGPS web site at any time. In addition, you may opt in for notifications and receive an email the moment a report or notice is published. As with any notification, the full content of any email you receive is always available online. How you receive our content is up to you and easily customized via your user profile. While the exact reports, analysis and EnergyGPS staff you’ll have access to vary by package, here are the core components of what you can expect: • Daily Report | For most subscribers, the EnergyGPS Daily Report is the first thing they read before the trading
day begins. Delivered by 5 a.m. Pacific Time in a concise, two-page format, it explains what is happening in the cash markets and, more importantly, why. This custom report is created by senior EGPS staff (not generated by a model or an algorithm) who mine volumes of data to pull out the important nuggets that will impact market prices. The report reviews key drivers in the California ISO marketplace including weather, changes in demand, unit outages, hydro production, imports and power flows. We also review fundamental drivers of the Northwest and Southwest markets, with particular attention to hydro conditions in the Pacific Northwest and load in the Desert Southwest.
• Weekly Recap | Every weekend, this eight-page report dives deeper into the most important market drivers of the previous week. The focus typically shifts based on market conditions. When the SCE Limit is binding, we examine the supply stack within the Los Angeles basin. During outage season, understanding the impact of unit outages is the key. During the spring, the focus often turns to California and Pacific Northwest hydro.
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Product Expectations (continued)
• Monthly Report | For each of our core product lines we provide an in-depth look at the most
significant developments of the past month. Here we have more time to develop on larger themes or trends we see, and also provide some macro guidance on what to expect going forward.
• Market Alerts and Notices | Our automated system monitors important websites and generates summary reports within seconds of data being published by the provider. Examples of these alerts include: CAISO LMP prices, CAISO market summary, CAISO transmission summary, Northwest River Forecast Center Volume Runoff forecasts, and Daily and Intra-Day Pacific Northwest Hydro summary. As with all of our content, you can elect to receive these alerts via email notifications if you wish.
• Web site | The secure EnergyGPS web site provides easy access to dozens of reports and graphics in real-time as we scrape data and automatically update our graphics throughout the day. It is also a rich interactive environment where clients can perform complex data queries to explore questions of interest. An example of web site content: CAISO market data condensed into a graphical display of the supply stack, load, transmission flows, outages, renewable resource production, and prices. Our Northwest content focuses on all aspects of hydro production including snowpack, water supply forecasts, river-flow forecasts, historic production at 60 dams, and the proprietary EGPS hydro forecast.
• Access to EnergyGPS staff | At the top subscription levels, you’ll have access to senior EnergyGPS staff via email, IM and phone to discuss current market conditions and your own positions.
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Fundamental Product Offerings
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Product Examples – Daily Commentary
Pacific Northwest Morning Report
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Product Categories – Automated eDash/eFlash
eDash: PNW Wind Forecast - BPA eFlash: ESP Delta
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Product Categories – Automated eDash
PNW Gas Burn Report
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Product Categories – Automated eDash
PNW - CA Hydro Forecast - eDash
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Product Categories – Automated eFlash
PNW Hydro Generation – NWRFC Update
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Product Categories – Automated eFlash
CAISO – Daily Auction Clears
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Product Categories – Automated eFlash
CAISO – Daily Congestion Shadow Prices
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Product Categories – PNW Hydro Package
• PNW Hydro Set of Dams
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Product Categories – PNW Hydro PackageEGPS Models• Short Term – 10 Day Forecast
– NWRFC 10 Day forecast– STP Weekly Flows– Curve Markings
• EGPS – STP Comparison– Determine where the STP might be incorrect– Curve Markings
• Long Term – 12 Months broken down into 14 buckets (two Apr/Aug)– ESP Volume Runoff Forecast, which provides unregulated flows at all major projects– Carve it into monthly volumes based on historical trends and our assessment of the distribution
of existing snowpack– Run unregulated flows through a storage model which is based on the flood control targets and
rules set out by USACE– The output provides us with the storage elevation and regulated flows by month/by dam– Factor in the curve markings (Spill/Qmax/Capacity) to get the actual turbine flows and spill for
each dam– Run these flows through a dam-by-dam hydro production model to get MWh.
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Product Categories – PNW Hydro Package
PNW Hydro Short Term Forecast – 10 Day
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Product Categories – PNW Hydro Package
PNW Long Term Hydro Generation
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Product Categories – PNW Hydro Package
Analysis of Weekly STP – Delta Flash/Commentary
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Product Categories – Natural Gas Package
• North America and Canada Natural Gas from a supply/demand pipeline perspective
• Weekly Analysis on North American Natural Gas, drilling down into the weekly and end of year storage numbers and what it means to the overall price in Nymex cash and forward spreads
• West Gas analysis of daily pipeline operations, constraints and notices
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Product Categories – Website Access
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Product Categories – Website Access
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Product Categories – Access to EGPS Staff
• Email– [email protected]– [email protected]– [email protected]– [email protected]– [email protected]
• Phone– Office: 503-764-9120
• AOL IM– Jeff Richter: jsrichter1
• Email newsletter sign up– https://www.energygps.com