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EC Contract No. FP7 - 234338

Clean European Rail-Diesel

D5.3.4Final report on the implications of further emission reductions

(Sustainability impact assessment)

Due date of deliverable: Actual submission date:

Leader of this Deliverable: Christian Kamburow, Roland Nolte, IZT

Reviewed: N

Document statusRevision Date Description

1 18.10.2013 Final draft

Project co-funded by the European Commission within the Seven Framework Programme (2007-2013)

Dissemination LevelPU Public XPP Restricted to other programme participants (including the Commission Services)

RE Restricted to a group specified by the consortium (including the Commission Services)

CO Confidential, only for members of the consortium (including the Commission Services)

Start date of project: 01/06/2009 Duration: 48 months

Instrument: Large-scale Integrated Project

Thematic priority: Sustainable Surface Transport


EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThis deliverable transforms the results from D5.1.2 Sustainability Study – Update into impacts of the introduction of NRMM stage IIIB (and IIIA). The deliverable presents the external (societal) costs from exhaust emissions and adds additional results on avoided external costs from introduction of NRMM stage IIIB compliant vehicles.

It assesses the (expected future) effect of the introduction of stage IIIB on the amount of total exhaust emissions (NOx and PM) and gives an outlook on the effect of possible new limit stages beyond IIIB in the next decade.

Results show that stages IIIA and IIIB will lead to significantly reduced external costs and therefore societal benefits. Assessment of the impacts of further reduced exhaust limit values shows that there might be an effect on total emissions but the fleet renewal has the main impact on the amount of total exhaust emissions.

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TABLE OF CONTENTSExecutive Summary.........................................................................................................................2

List of Figures...................................................................................................................................4

List of Tables....................................................................................................................................6

1. Introduction..................................................................................................................................7

2. Summary of results from D5.1.2 Sustainability Study – Update..................................................7

2.1 Fleet development until 2020.................................................................................................7

2.2 Exhaust emissions estimation................................................................................................9

3. Development of the European rail diesel fleet beyond 2020.....................................................10

4. External costs of exhaust emissions from rail diesel transport..................................................12

4.1 External costs of rail diesel transport 2008-2020.................................................................13

5. Total exhaust emissions – Impact of Stages IIIA/IIIB & sensitivity assessment........................15

5.1 The impact of introducing NRMM stages IIIA/IIIB (“what-if scenario 1”)..............................15

5.1.1 Artificial “all vehicles IIIB-compliant in 2020” investigation (“what-if scenario 2”).....17

5.1.2 Impact on external costs of introducing NRMM stages IIIA/IIIB...............................17

5.2 The case of a market for IIIA engines (“what-if scenario 3”)................................................18

5.3 Going beyond IIIB – impact of stricter limit vales on the total exhaust emissions (“what-if scenario 4”)................................................................................................................................20

5.4 Conclusions from sensitivity analysis...................................................................................23

5.5 Cost/ benefit analysis...........................................................................................................23

6. Emerging technologies – Impact Assessment of beyond-IIIB solutions from SP6....................23

7. Hybrid solutions for rail diesel vehicles – Impact assessment of SP7 outcomes.......................24

7.1 Hybrid solutions for rail diesel vehicles – LCC results.........................................................24

7.2 Hybrid solutions for rail diesel vehicles – impact on total exhaust emissions and CO2

emissions...................................................................................................................................25

8. Annex.........................................................................................................................................27

8.1 Detailed fleet development scenarios after 2020.................................................................27

8.2 External costs of exhaust emissions from transport.............................................................29

8.3 Total exhaust emissions – sensitivity...................................................................................33

8.4 Annex to chapter 5.3 Going beyond IIIB – impact of stricter limit vales on the total exhaust emissions (“what-if scenario 4”).................................................................................................35

8.4.1 Total exhaust emissions until 2030 – comparison with other data...........................37

8.5 High rate of remotorisation of existing fleet – impact on total exhaust emissions (“what-if scenario 5”)................................................................................................................................39

8.5.1 High rate of remotorisation of existing fleet – impact on external costs...................42

8.5.2 Past remotorisation of old rail diesel vehicles..........................................................46

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LIST OF FIGURESFigure 2-1: Detailed diesel locomotives fleet development per emission class, CleanER-D

projection 2020, European railway operators, EU27 & EFTA..................................................8

Figure 2-2: Detailed DMU fleet development, CleanER-D projection 2020, European railway operators, EU27 & EFTA..........................................................................................................8

Figure 2-3: NOx emissions from rail diesel traction per vehicle type, CleanER-D SP5 estimation, European railway operators, EU27 & EFTA.............................................................................9

Figure 2-4: PM emissions from rail diesel traction per vehicle type, CleanER-D SP5 estimation, European railway operators, EU27 & EFTA.............................................................................9

Figure 3-1: Development of number of diesel locomotives after 2020, two scenarios, CleanER-D SP5 estimation, European railway operators, EU27& EFTA.................................................11

Figure 3-2: Development of number of DMUs after 2020, two scenarios, CleanER-D SP5 estimation, European railway operators, EU27& EFTA.........................................................11

Figure 4-1: Annual external costs from NOx and PM rail diesel exhaust emissions in the EU27 and EFTA, 2008-2020; CleanER-D projection..............................................................................13

Figure 4-2: Annual external costs from NOx rail diesel exhaust emissions in the EU27 and EFTA, 2008-2020; CleanER-D projection.........................................................................................14

Figure 4-3: Annual external costs from PM2.5 rail diesel exhaust emissions in the EU27 and EFTA, 2008-2020; CleanER-D projection.........................................................................................14

Figure 5-1: Development of total NOx emissions without introduction of stages IIIA & IIIB until 2020 and theoretical total NOx emissions in 2020 with all vehicles complying to stage IIIB. .16

Figure 5-2: Development of total PM emissions without introduction of stages IIIA & IIIB until 2020 and theoretical total PM emissions in 2020 with all vehicles complying to stage IIIB............17

Figure 5-3: Annual external costs from NOx and PM emissions – IIIA/B introduced vs. UIC II continued................................................................................................................................17

Figure 5-4: Cumulated avoided external costs (societal benefit) from introduction of stages IIIA/B compared to a UIC-II-continued scenario..............................................................................18

Figure 5-5: Development of total NOx emissions with only IIIA compliant new engines entering the fleet (new vehicles and remotorisation/ repowering) until 2020.............................................19

Figure 5-6: Development of total PM emissions with only IIIA compliant new engines entering the fleet (new vehicles and remotorisation/ repowering) until 2020.............................................20

Figure 5-7: Development of total NOx emissions until 2030 with a stable fleet size after 2020. Low and high number of new IIIB vehicles/engines after 2020 vs. new stage after 2020 (low number of new vehicles)........................................................................................................22

Figure 5-8: Development of total PM emissions until 2030 with a stable fleet size after 2020. Low and high number of new IIIB vehicles/engines after 2020 vs. new stage after 2020 (low number of new vehicles)........................................................................................................22

Figure 8-1: Diesel locomotives fleet development until 2030 – high decommissioning and purchase rate.........................................................................................................................27

Figure 8-2: Diesel locomotives fleet development until 2030 – low decommissioning and purchase rate.........................................................................................................................................28

Figure 8-3: DMU fleet development until 2030 – high decommissioning and purchase rate.........28CLD-D-IZT-017-01 of 51 18/10/2013


Figure 8-4: DMU fleet development until 2030 – low decommissioning and purchase rate..........29

Figure 8-5: Development of total NOx emissions until 2030 with a stable fleet size after 2020. Low numbers of new vehicles & low decommissioning rates of old vehicles. Range of total NOx

emissions – upper values: emissions if stage IIIB still valid after 2020; lower values: emissions if all new vehicles after 2020 do not emit NOx.......................................................35

Figure 8-6: Development of total NOx emissions until 2030 with a stable fleet size after 2020. High decommissioning rates of old vehicles & high numbers of new vehicles within a constant fleet. Range of total NOx emissions – upper values: emissions if stage IIIB still valid after 2020; lower values: emissions if all new vehicles after 2020 do not emit NOx.......................36

Figure 8-7: Development of total PM emissions until 2030 with a stable fleet size after 2020. Low numbers of new vehicles & low decommissioning rates of old vehicles. Range of total PM emissions – upper values: emissions if stage IIIB still valid after 2020; lower values: emissions if all new vehicles after 2020 do not emit PM........................................................37

Figure 8-8: Development of total PM emissions until 2030 with a stable fleet size after 2020. High decommissioning rates of old vehicles & high numbers of new vehicles within a constant fleet. Range of total PM emissions – upper values: emissions if stage IIIB still valid after 2020; lower values: emissions if all new vehicles after 2020 do not emit PM........................37

Figure 8-9: Comparison of CleanER-D SP5 NOx emissions estimations from rail diesel traction until 2030 with data from EEA statistics, GAINS/ PRIMES model data and JRC NRMM review results, European railway operators, EU27 & EFTA...................................................38

Figure 8-10: Comparison of CleanER-D SP5 PM emissions estimations from rail diesel traction until 2030 with data from EEA statistics, GAINS/ PRIMES model data and JRC NRMM review results, European railway operators, EU27 & EFTA...................................................39

Figure 8-11: Development of total NOx emissions until 2030 with a stable total fleet size after 2020. Comparison of results of two scenarios: “high remotorisation rate until 2020” vs. “new stage after 2020 with 0.0 g/kWh”. Low and high decommissioning rates of old vehicles after 2020.......................................................................................................................................41

Figure 8-12: Development of total PM emissions until 2030 with a stable total fleet size after 2020. Comparison of results of two scenarios: “high remotorisation rate until 2020” vs. “new stage after 2020 with 0.0 g/kWh”. Low and high decommissioning rates of old vehicles after 2020.......................................................................................................................................42

Figure 8-13: Comparison of annual external costs from rail diesel exhaust emissions – high remotorisation rate scenario vs. initial CleanER-D SP5 fleet scenario until 2020..................42

Figure 8-14: Cumulated avoided external costs (societal benefit) from a high remotorisation rate scenario vs. initial CleanER-D SP5 fleet scenario until 2020.................................................43

Figure 8-15: Diesel locomotives fleet development per emission stage with high remotorisation rate, high decommissioning and purchase rate after 2020. CleanER-D SP5 estimation until 2030, EU27 & EFTA...............................................................................................................44

Figure 8-16: Diesel locomotives fleet development per emission stage with high remotorisation rate, low decommissioning and purchase rate after 2020. CleanER-D SP5 estimation until 2030, EU27 & EFTA...............................................................................................................44

Figure 8-17: DMU fleet development per emission stage with high remotorisation rate, high decommissioning and purchase rate after 2020. CleanER-D SP5 estimation until 2030, EU27 & EFTA.........................................................................................................................45

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Figure 8-18: DMU fleet development per emission stage with high remotorisation rate, low decommissioning and purchase rate after 2020. CleanER-D SP5 estimation until 2030, EU27 & EFTA.........................................................................................................................46

Figure 8-19: Percentage of engines being re-engined: average and range of individual railway values, source: rail Diesel Study, UIC/CER 2006..................................................................46

LIST OF TABLESTable 2-1: Development of diesel locomotive fleet in the, CleanER-D SP5 scenario......................7

Table 2-2: Development of DMU fleet, CleanER-D SP5 scenario...................................................7

Table 8-1: Air pollution cost factors in EUR/ton of pollutant (€2008 values) in the transport sector per country, pollutant and area...............................................................................................30

Table 8-2: Distribution of exhaust emissions from rail diesel transport according to the types of population areas as defined in the EU Handbook with estimates of external costs in the transport sector......................................................................................................................31

Table 8-3: Share of performed train-km per vehicle type per country to the total train-km in the EU27 & EFTA in 2008............................................................................................................31

Table 8-4: Detailed total exhaust emissions from rail diesel traction. Results for CleanER-D SP5 estimation and a scenario where NRMM stages IIIA/IIIB have not been introduced but all new vehicles and engines continue to comply with UIC II exhaust limit values. European railway operators, EU27 & EFTA, in kt...................................................................................33

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1. INTRODUCTIONThis deliverable transforms the results from D5.1.2 Sustainability Study – Update into impacts of the introduction of NRMM stage IIIB (and IIIA). The deliverable presents the external (societal) costs from exhaust emissions and adds additional results on avoided external costs from introduction of NRMM stage IIIB compliant vehicles.

It assesses the (expected future) effect of the introduction of stage IIIB on the amounts of total exhaust emissions (NOx and PM) and gives an outlook on the effect of possible new limit stages beyond IIIB in the next decade.

Results from SP6 and SP7 on “beyond-IIIB solutions” and hybrid solutions, respectively, are covered, too.

2. SUMMARY OF RESULTS FROM D5.1.2 SUSTAINABILITY STUDY – UPDATE

For better readability and understanding, key results of D5.1.2 Sustainability Study – Update, which are key inputs for the present deliverable, are presented here.

2.1 FLEET DEVELOPMENT UNTIL 2020

Diesel locomotives2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

UIC II and older 13963 13463 12963 12283 11604 10924 10245 9585 8926 8266 7667 7067 6468

IIIA 145 385 682 832 982 1102 1222 1342 1462 1492 1522 1552 1582

Repowered with IIIA 80 160 240 320 380 440 500 560 560 560

IIIB 30 60 90 120 240 360 480 600

total 14108 13848 13645 13196 12746 12297 11847 11398 10948 10499 10109 9660 9210

Table 2-1: Development of diesel locomotive fleet in the, CleanER-D SP5 scenario

DMUsDMUs 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020UIC II and older 8363 8263 8163 7963 7713 7613 7513 7363 7213 7063 6913 6763 6613 6563 6513

IIIA 200 350 650 1000 1388 1638 1638 1638 1638 1638 1638 1638 1638 1638 1638

Repowered with IIIA 50 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 700 700

IIIB 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 2250

total 8563 8613 8813 8963 9100 9300 9500 9700 9900 10100 10300 10500 10700 10900 11100

Table 2-2: Development of DMU fleet, CleanER-D SP5 scenario

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Figure 2-1: Detailed diesel locomotives fleet development per emission class, CleanER-D projection 2020, European railway operators, EU27 & EFTA

Figure 2-2: Detailed DMU fleet development, CleanER-D projection 2020, European railway operators, EU27 & EFTA

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2.2 EXHAUST EMISSIONS ESTIMATION

176,63 172,21 167,90 163,18157,99

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Figure 2-3: NOx emissions from rail diesel traction per vehicle type, CleanER-D SP5 estimation, European railway operators, EU27 & EFTA

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Figure 2-4: PM emissions from rail diesel traction per vehicle type, CleanER-D SP5 estimation, European railway operators, EU27 & EFTA

3. DEVELOPMENT OF THE EUROPEAN RAIL DIESEL FLEET BEYOND 2020

For the estimation of the total exhaust emissions from rail diesel transport until 2020 scenarios regarding the European rail diesel fleet are being developed and assessed. For the needs of the LCC and CBA1 calculations as part of WP5.3 the scenarios have to be extended until 2030 as the LCC methodology is based on a 20 years period of vehicle life and in-service time.

As no tangible conclusions of the fleet development after 2020 can be drawn a stable rail diesel fleet after 2020 has been assumed. Nevertheless the fleet composition continues to change due to the expected decommissioning of old vehicles and purchases of new vehicles. As the fleet scenarios until 2020 include high decommissioning rates for old locomotives but also new purchases, especially of DMUs, there is the question how a stable fleet after 2020 will be composed:

Will the low numbers of new vehicles entering the fleet every year (as assumed for the years before 2020) continue to be so low?

o This results also in low decommissioning rates of old vehicles if the fleet is being assumed to be stable in terms of total numbers (beyond-2020-scenario I).

Or, will the high decommissioning rates of old vehicles continue (especially for locomotives)?

o This will result – in a stable fleet scenario – in high numbers of new vehicles to be purchased (beyond-2020-scenario II).

1 LCC: Life Cycle Costs. CBA: Cost Benefit Analysis CLD-D-IZT-017-01 of 51 18/10/2013


As no conclusions can be drawn on this topic, two differing scenarios have to be developed for the years after 2020 – one with high numbers of decommissioning of old and purchase of new vehicles – and one with low numbers of new vehicles entering the fleet and – vice-versa – low numbers of decommissioned old vehicles (beyond-2020-scenarios I & II). The following charts represent the fleet scenarios for the years after 2020 (charts with detailed fleet developments per emission class are included in the annex, ch. 8.1 Detailed fleet development scenarios after2020):

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Figure 3-5: Development of number of diesel locomotives after 2020, two scenarios, CleanER-D SP5 estimation, European railway operators, EU27& EFTA

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Figure 3-6: Development of number of DMUs after 2020, two scenarios, CleanER-D SP5 estimation, European railway operators, EU27& EFTA

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4. EXTERNAL COSTS OF EXHAUST EMISSIONS FROM RAIL DIESEL TRANSPORT

Exhaust emissions from internal combustion engines (but also all other emissions) are seen to implicate external costs based on how harmful these emissions are (e.g. to human health, to different ecosystems etc.). The European Handbook with estimates of external costs in the transport sector summarises the valuation of external costs. The handbook was updated in late 2011 with newer cost figures for each EU member country2. Based on the figures given in the report and based on the performed diesel train-km for each country (from UIC official statistics for 2008) weighted average costs were calculated (in 2008 prices):

8,409 EUR/ton for NOx

398,273 EUR/ton for PM2.5 in urban metropolitan areas (cities with more than 0.5 million inhabitants)

128,326 EUR/ton for PM2.5 in urban areas (smaller and midsized cities with up to 0.5 million inhabitants)

72,509 EUR/ton for PM2.5 outside built-up areas for emissions

“These external costs take into account a valuation of health impacts (and air quality), crop damage, material damage and negative consequences for biodiversity. Valuations of health impacts are based on scientific studies evaluating extra mortality, cardiopulmonary morbidity, (cerebrovascular hospital admissions, congestive heart failure, chronic bronchitis, chronic cough in children, lower respiratory symptoms, cough in asthmatics …”3 4

In this meaning, exhaust emissions can be monetarised and show the socio-economic impact of these reductions (on the other side, additional investment costs and lifetime costs have to be taken into account, too, and have to be compared to the socio-economic gains).

As the external costs are given for the mass of the more dangerous PM2.5 one has to keep in mind that the PM2.5 portion is only one part of the PM10 emissions from rail diesel traction. The NRMM directive limit values as well as the older UIC limit values are not only for PM2.5 but cover all PM emissions up to PM10. Experts’ communications from CleanER-D project partners indicate that PM2.5 has a portion of approx. 95% of overall PM diesel exhaust emissions. Therefore 5% less PM emissions from the total PM10 exhaust emissions estimation from WP 5.1, deliverable D5.1.2 Sustainability Study – Update, are being used for the calculation of external costs from PM.

2 External Costs of Transport in Europe. Update Study for 2008, www.cedelft.eu/publicatie/external_costs_of_transport_in_europe/1258 3 Impact Assessment Study – Reviewing Directive 97/68/EC Emissions from non-road mobile machinery, 2009, p.253 f.4 A Swedish paper (Trafikverket paper to the GEME ad-hoc working group assisting the European Commission services in preparation of a proposal for amending the NRMM directive) gives values for external costs of exhaust emissions for Sweden which are as follows: NO x: 30,000-70,000 SEK/ton; PM: 2,030,000-9,500,000 SEK/ton; HC: 31,000-56,000 SEK/ton, depending on the population density (exposure). The difference between the European numbers and the Swedish are due to the averaged costs from all European countries. As one can see in the annex, the Swedish values form the EU handbook are 424.400,00 €, 136.500,00 €, 41.300,00 € and 4.100,00 €, respectively. These are in the range of the above mentioned values, depending on the currency exchange rate applied.CLD-D-IZT-017-01 of 51 18/10/2013

http://www.cedelft.eu/publicatie/external_costs_of_transport_in_europe/1258


4.1 EXTERNAL COSTS OF RAIL DIESEL TRANSPORT 2008-2020

Based on the before mentioned cost figures and taking into account the amount of exhaust emissions from rail diesel traction, the external costs of rail diesel traction in the EU27 from 2008 until 2020 are calculated.

The chart below shows the external costs for the pollutants NOx and PM2.5 from rail diesel traction, calculated until 2020.

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Annual external costs from NOx & PM rail diesel exhaust emissionsEuropean railway operators, EU27 & EFTA, 2008-2020 estimation

€ PM in 2008 prices (total) € NOx in 2008 prices (total)

Total: 1.784million €

Total: 1.088 million €

Figure 4-7: Annual external costs from NOx and PM rail diesel exhaust emissions in the EU27 and EFTA, 2008-2020; CleanER-D projectionOne can see that the total external costs from NOx emissions are much higher than the costs caused by PM2.5 emissions although the costs per ton pollutant are much higher for PM2.5. This is due to the much higher amount of NOx emitted.

As there is a direct link between the amount of exhaust emissions and external costs it is not surprising that the decline of the total external costs comes mainly from a diesel locomotive fleet that is becoming much smaller until 2020, based on the CleanER-D fleet development scenarios as introduced in deliverable D5.1.2 Sustainability Study – Update.

Nevertheless, as the following two charts show, the total external costs per vehicle type decrease also for a growing DMU fleet (for PM) where the increase of the number of DMUs comes from new vehicles complying to stage IIIB, having lower specific emissions.

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€ NOx in 2008 prices DMUs € NOx in 2008 prices Locos

Total: 1485 million €


Figure 4-8: Annual external costs from NOx rail diesel exhaust emissions in the EU27 and EFTA, 2008-2020; CleanER-D projection

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Total: 299million €


Figure 4-9: Annual external costs from PM2.5 rail diesel exhaust emissions in the EU27 and EFTA, 2008-2020; CleanER-D projection

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5. TOTAL EXHAUST EMISSIONS – IMPACT OF STAGES IIIA/IIIB & SENSITIVITY ASSESSMENT

Within deliverable 5.1.2 Sustainability Study – Update an estimation of the total exhaust emissions from rail diesel traction in the EU27 and EFTA in 2020 was performed. The results show that a substantial decrease of the total exhaust emissions is possible. For impact analysis as well as sensitivity analysis reasons five artificial/ theoretical “what-if” scenarios are being developed here:

1. “What-if” scenario 1 assesses the overall impact of the introduction of the stages IIIA and IIIB. A calculation is being performed (based on the initial fleet development scenarios) where no IIIA and IIIB compliant rail vehicles enter the fleet after 2006/ 2008 but only UIC II compliant vehicles/ engines.

2. “What-if” scenario 2: In the respective subchapter, also an artificial/ theoretical investigation is being made, where all vehicles in 2020 are stage IIIB compliant which represents an extreme scenario and which indicates the maximum possible technical reduction of exhaust emissions with the projected fleet.

3. “What-if” scenario 3: a third scenario where no IIIB vehicles enter the fleet but only IIIA compliant engines and vehicles. This scenario is based on the NRMM rules for re-powering/ remotorisation where IIIA engines (which have already been built) can be put into service. Similar effects were observed in the past, when bigger numbers of “old” engines were bought prior a new emission stage coming into force. This past market behaviour indicates that the market size for IIIB engines could become rather small in terms of engines and vehicles.

4. “What-if” scenario 4 investigates the effects of a new limit stage beyond IIIB in the years after 2020. As no specific limit values were investigated a sensitivity assessment was performed setting the limit to the theoretical limit value of 0.0 g/kWh (for NOx and PM). As only new vehicle and engines entering the fleet after 2020 would be affected by a new emissions stage the amount of the total exhaust emissions is highly depending on the existing diesel rail fleet (the fleet structure as in 2020, including vehicles compliant to stages IIIB, IIIA, UIC II & I and pre-UIC I).

A “What-if” scenario 5 investigates whether the very low total exhaust emissions calculated in “what-if” scenario 4 can be reached also by a high rate of repowering of old vehicles. As scenario 4 assumes a new stage with no NOx and PM emissions of new vehicles, the existing fleet continues to emit pollutants. Scenario 5 assesses the impact of a fleet where no new stage after 2020 is being introduced (stage IIIB continues to be valid for new vehicles) but the existing fleet sees significant remotorisation until 2020. This scenario is included in the annex.

5.1 THE IMPACT OF INTRODUCING NRMM STAGES IIIA/IIIB (“WHAT-IF SCENARIO 1”)

The impact of the introduction of the NRMM stages IIIA and IIIB is being assessed against an estimation of a fleet scenario where all new vehicles entering the fleet (or new replacement engines) are only UIC II compliant.

The results which are graphically represented in the following charts show the effect of the introduction of stages IIIA/IIIB – for NOx in the range of approx. 18% less exhaust emissions (-17% for locos, -20% for DMUs) and for PM approx. 8% less (-5% for locos, -12% for DMUs) – based on the CleanER-D fleet scenarios. A detailed table is included in the annex, ch. 8.3 Totalexhaust emissions – sensitivity.

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Figure 5-10: Development of total NOx emissions without introduction of stages IIIA & IIIB until 2020 and theoretical total NOx emissions in 2020 with all vehicles complying to stage IIIB

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PM locomotives PM DMUsPM locos, continuation UIC II PM DMUs, continuation UIC IIPM locos, all IIIB in 2020 PM DMUs, all IIIB in 2020

Figure 5-11: Development of total PM emissions without introduction of stages IIIA & IIIB until 2020 and theoretical total PM emissions in 2020 with all vehicles complying to stage IIIB

5.1.1 Artificial “all vehicles IIIB-compliant in 2020” investigation (“what-if scenario 2”)Additionally, an “extreme” assumption is being investigated and included in the charts in Figure 5-10 and Figure 5-11 above where all engines/ vehicles are compliant to stage IIIB in 2020. This is a technical feasible scenario of the maximum possible reduction potentials resulting from the introduction of stage IIIB. NOx emissions are being reduced by more than 50% and PM by almost 80% (based on total emissions from locos and DMUs) in this extreme scenario.

This “extreme” assumption” indicates the potential of a rapid exchange of old engines, e.g. through fleet-wide remotorisation campaigns. A comparable ‘high remotorisation numbers scenario’ is assessed more in detail and with other assumptions in the annex in ch. 8.5 High rateof remotorisation of existing fleet – impact on total exhaust emissions (“what-if scenario 5”)

5.1.2 Impact on external costs of introducing NRMM stages IIIA/IIIBThe comparison of avoided exhaust emissions through introduction of the stages IIIA and IIIB compared to a continuation of UIC II can also be converted into avoided external costs, i.e. societal benefits in monetary terms. The first chart shows a comparison of the annual external costs from the SP5 fleet and emission scenarios where stages IIIA and IIIB have been introduced and external costs from a scenario where IIIA and IIIB have not been introduced but UIC II stage continues, i.e. all new vehicles are UIC II conform.

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Figure 5-12: Annual external costs from NOx and PM emissions – IIIA/B introduced vs. UIC II continuedThe following chart shows the cumulated avoided external costs until 2020.

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Cumulated avoided external costs (from NOx emissions) from introduction of IIIA/IIIB vs. UIC IICumulated avoided external costs (from PM emissions) from introduction of IIIA/IIIB vs. UIC II

Figure 5-13: Cumulated avoided external costs (societal benefit) from introduction of stages IIIA/B compared to a UIC-II-continued scenarioThe results show that the introduction of NRMM stages IIIA and IIIB lead and will lead to substantial societal benefits in terms of avoided external costs due to reduced diesel exhaust emissions from rail diesel traction in the EU27 and EFTA member countries. The avoided external costs cumulate to approximately 1.4 billion Euros in 2020 (in 2008 prices) with the main share from avoided external costs of NOx emissions.

Within D5.3.2 Cost Benefit Analysis of Technical Options for Emission Reduction the technological and operational costs of stage IIIA/B vehicles compared to UIC II are being assessed and compared to the avoided external costs as presented above. A summary is included in ch. 5.5 Cost/ benefit analysis.

One should bear in mind that such a comparison is limited in its outcomes as external costs are costs which are covered by the society as a whole (or avoided external costs, i.e. societal benefits, which are beneficial for the whole society) whereas investment and implementation costs for cleaner rail diesel technologies are covered in the end by the purchasing companies/ operators. Therefore, society benefits from the avoided external costs of the introduction of stages IIIA/B whereas the cost burden is on the railway sector alone.

5.2 THE CASE OF A MARKET FOR IIIA ENGINES (“WHAT-IF SCENARIO 3”)

As mentioned in D5.1.2 Sustainability Study – Update, there are indications that IIIA engines have been produced in advance and will be available to be put into service according the NRMM directive. On the other hand, public authorities can allow as exception IIIA engines for replacement. The following scenario shows the impact on the total exhaust emissions of a fleet

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where no IIIB compliant engines have been put into service until 2020 but only IIIA compliant ones.

This is an artificial scenario as IIIB vehicles are already in service and orders for (a limited number of) IIIB vehicles are placed already (mid 2013).

Additionally, especially big state owned railway operators may not order new, non-IIIB compliant vehicles due to company-own environmental policies and public and political pressure. Nevertheless, the scenario results presented here show a sort of a “market failure” development.

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Figure 5-14: Development of total NOx emissions with only IIIA compliant new engines entering the fleet (new vehicles and remotorisation/ repowering) until 2020

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Figure 5-15: Development of total PM emissions with only IIIA compliant new engines entering the fleet (new vehicles and remotorisation/ repowering) until 2020As one can see such a scenario leads to higher emissions for both NOx and PM: total NOx

emissions in 2020 are approx. 12% higher and PM emissions approx. 16% higher compared to the initial CleanER-D SP5 exhaust emission estimation with IIIB compliant engines entering the fleet; i.e. a situation in which no or almost no IIIB vehicles enter the fleet because of availability of IIIA engines.

5.3 GOING BEYOND IIIB – IMPACT OF STRICTER LIMIT VALES ON THE TOTAL EXHAUST EMISSIONS (“WHAT-IF SCENARIO 4”)

It can be expected that a stage after stage IIIB may be introduced in the future for rail diesel vehicles. If and when cannot be foreseen at the current stage (mid 2013) but discussions within the rail and engine sectors as well on the policy level are taking place. As PM limit values have reached with stage IIIB a very low level with 0.025 g/kWh it can be expected that further exhaust emissions reductions will take place for NOx emissions with the introduction of stricter limit values.

As no ‘airtight’ statements can be drawn on the future limit stage, especially with regards to NO x, it can only be expected that it will be in the range between today’s limit values and the theoretical limit of 0.0 g/kWh. This artificial, purely mathematical assumption has been made for both PM and NOx in the exhaust emissions estimation for the years after 2020 to assess the ranges of possible exhaust emissions reductions from a future stage (there is no technical way to achieve such emissions!).

One could argue that this range does not refer to reality but this theoretical exercise aims to show which impact on the overall emissions new vehicles/engines will have after 2020 taking into account that a substantial part of the fleet consists of ‘old’ vehicles (stages IIIB, IIIA, UIC II, UIC I and older).

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As a new limit stage will most probably not come into force before the end of the decade effects on the total exhaust emissions will take place in the years after 2020. Therefore, extended fleet development scenarios for 2020-2030 are introduced in ch. 3 Development of the European raildiesel fleet beyond 2020. Based on a stable operating fleet after 2020 – an assumption, as no tangible conclusions on the fleet and market development after 2020 are possible – the two scenarios differ in the numbers of new vehicles (and/or engines) entering the fleet and old vehicles (and/or engines) being put out of service.

The following charts show the possible development of total exhaust emissions after 2020 for a new stage as well as for a continuation of stage IIIB. The results of three different scenarios/ assumptions are displayed:

introduction of a new stage after 2020 with low number of new vehicles entering the fleet and old vehicles being put out of service;

continuation of stage IIIB with low number of new vehicles entering the fleet and old vehicles being put out of service;

continuation of stage IIIB with high number of new vehicles entering the fleet and old vehicles being put out of service.

The third scenario – continuation of stage IIIB with high number of new vehicles – represents an assumed development where either new IIIB conform vehicles enter the fleet at a higher rate (compared to the years before 2020) or remotorisation of existing vehicles with stage IIIB takes place.

Results show that the existing vehicles of the rail diesel fleet will continue to emit NOx and PM according to their limit stages. The share of new vehicles compliant to a new stage between the current IIIB and 0.0 g will have certain effects but a substantial part of the fleet will still be compliant to the stages IIIB, IIIA, UIC II, UIC I or older.

Whereas the range of total NOx emissions is clearly visible (with current IIIB limit values for locos: 4 g/kWh for NOx and HC, 2.0 g/kWh for DMUs) the changes in PM are smaller due to the very low IIIB limit values (0.025 g/kWh for PM for locos and DMUs). Again, the lower range is based on a value of 0.0 g/kWh (for PM and NOx) for all new vehicles after 2020, which is a purely theoretical value but spans the range of possible exhaust emission amounts from an assumed stable rail diesel fleet.

Conclusions which can be drawn are: a further reduction of the total exhaust emissions is possible from a new limit stage after 2020 but the emissions from the existing fleet have a substantial share of all emissions. A strong effect on the total exhaust emissions show the differing assumptions on the fleet renewal, i.e. if old diesel vehicles or engines are being put out of service and replaced by new ones, the effect on the total exhaust amounts is also very high (if we assume that the artificial, theoretical value of 0.0 g/kWh is not reachable and just for illustration).

Even more, as results show, a substantial reduction of total exhaust emissions can be achieved even with stage IIIB if an accelerated market uptake of IIIB engines takes place.

Detailed results also for high number of new vehicles entering the fleet with a new stage after 2020 are included in the annex (ch. 8.4 Annex to chapter 5.3 Going beyond IIIB – impact ofstricter limit vales on the total exhaust emissions (“what-if scenario 4”))

Note: The delta between the NOx total emissions in the charts is different between the two scenarios I & II. Because in scenario II a higher decommissioning rate of old vehicles is being assumed, much more very old, pre-UIC I compliant vehicles, are being put out of service whereas

CLD-D-IZT-017-01 of 51 18/10/2013


in scenario I a substantial part of these vehicles is still in service with its very high emissions. I.e. in scenario II there are de-facto no pre-UIC I DMUs and locos in the fleet after 2022 and even no UIC I compliant locomotives after 2028.

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Total NOx, scen. I (low numbers of new vehicles), new stage after 2020Total NOx, scen. I (low numbers of new vehicles), IIIB continues after 2020Total NOx, scen. II (high numbers of new vehicles), IIIB continues after 2020

Figure 5-16: Development of total NOx emissions until 2030 with a stable fleet size after 2020. Low and high number of new IIIB vehicles/engines after 2020 vs. new stage after 2020 (low number of new vehicles)

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Total PM, scen. I (low numbers of new vehicles), new stage after 2020Total PM, scen. I (low numbers of new vehicles), IIIB continues after 2020Total PM, scen. II (high numbers of new vehicles), IIIB continues after 2020

Figure 5-17: Development of total PM emissions until 2030 with a stable fleet size after 2020. Low and high number of new IIIB vehicles/engines after 2020 vs. new stage after 2020 (low number of new vehicles)

5.4 CONCLUSIONS FROM SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

The different assessments within the sensitivity analysis show clearly that there is a benefit from the introduction of NRMM stages IIIA and IIIB in terms of lowered total exhaust emissions and resulting avoided external costs from rail diesel exhaust emissions. Nevertheless, the dilemma of additional costs for the railway business versus societal benefits from lower total exhaust emissions remains.

The assessment of an introduction of an additional, new stage after 2020 with very low limit values shows that the effect on total exhaust emissions is limited and that the “old” fleet will continue to emit the big portion of NOx and PM. This is due to the long lifespan and usage time of rail diesel vehicles and reflects the operational reality of rail diesel vehicles in Europe. The assessment shows that a continuation of stage IIIB after 2020 leads to beneficial results if a higher market uptake of IIIB engines takes place.

5.5 COST/ BENEFIT ANALYSIS

Within the work on D5.3.2 “Final Cost/ Benefit” the life cycle costs of IIIA/ IIIB technologies are being assessed. The additional costs of introducing NRMM stages IIIA and IIIB compared to a continuation of UIC II are being calculated. Regarding IIIB technologies two different technology cost scenarios based on different IIIB solutions are calculated.

The cost elements used on the technology cost side are based on engine replacement only, which is not the total cost for the train operator or manufacturers, as there will be specific changes to the system required for specific engine types with respect to UIC, IIIA and particularly for the new IIIB engines. These additional costs have not been considered by this assessment due to their no-standard nature to quantify and therefore an appropriate percentage of additional CLD-D-IZT-017-01 of 51 18/10/2013


cost should be added to cater the difference of replacing engines with UIC II compared with replacement with IIIA and IIIB instead. Such additional cost should be added to the initial cost investment as new vehicles should be designed with known requirements of the new engine and their emission reduction technologies.

6. EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES – IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF BEYOND-IIIB SOLUTIONS FROM SP6

The scope and work of SP6 – Emerging Technologies is on the further development and assessment of existing technologies and solutions for exhaust treatment of rail diesel engines and achieving exhaust performances better than stage IIIB limit values. For this purpose, combinations of different technologies – e.g. EGR, SCR, DPF systems – are being assessed and simulated with regard to an optimised exhaust performance of the engines and possible trade-offs on fuel consumption. Moreover, future solutions from the heavy duty road sector are assessed on their exhaust emissions reduction potential for railways in the future. The work of SP6 focused only on engines up to 560 kW.

The results of the work of SP6 indicate a bandwidth of possible further emission reduction potentials. These potentials are covered in the present deliverable in ch. 5.3 Going beyond IIIB –impact of stricter limit vales on the total exhaust emissions (“what-if scenario 4”) as the achievable limit values from SP6 fall within the bandwidth of the results of the outcomes of the “what-if scenario 4”.

Deliverable D6.3.1 Technology innovation for future measures beyond IIIB on diesel railway applications summarizes the results of SP6.

7. HYBRID SOLUTIONS FOR RAIL DIESEL VEHICLES – IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF SP7 OUTCOMES

SP7 – Hybrid solutions develops and assesses the utilisation of energy storage systems (ESS) for rail vehicles with diesel engines. The starting point is a reduction of fuel consumption, but further reduction of total or specific exhaust emission from rail diesel traction is being investigated, too. The sub-project focuses hybrid applications for shunter locomotives with 1000 kW diesel engines as well as on DMUs in regional and suburban passenger traffic. Hybrid configurations for other rail diesel vehicles and service types have been investigated at the very beginning of the project but did not promise substantial fuel savings and have therefore not been investigated in detail.

Simulations of different combinations of ESS, vehicle types and rail transport services are being performed to assess and justify the benefits of hybrid rail diesel solutions with respect to fuel consumption and total exhaust emissions. Additionally, the life cycle costs (LCC) of the different combinations/ solutions are being assessed so that conclusions on the economic performance of these solutions can be derived.

Based on the results of the simulations and the LCC assessment scenarios on the possible utilisation of hybrid rail vehicles in the European rail diesel fleet are being drawn and the impact on total exhaust emissions, external costs and fleet development evaluated.

As detailed data for IIIB engines in all power classes were not available at the start of SP7 diesel consumption for generic IIIA engines had to be derived and used. Therefore, fuel consumption values with and without ESS are based on IIIA engines. Results for hybrid vehicles with IIIB engines will differ from simulation results but will be assessed within SP7.

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7.1 HYBRID SOLUTIONS FOR RAIL DIESEL VEHICLES – LCC RESULTS

Results show substantial fuel saving potentials from hybrid systems differing for the single ESS configurations and vehicle/ service types (detailed results are restricted and not publicly available).

LCC assessments are based on fuel costs over LCC time, maintenance and also investment and replacement costs of ESS. Results show that from a LCC perspective many ESS configurations are not beneficial, i.e. fuel savings and resulting fuel costs savings are outpaced by the costs for ESS investment5. Nevertheless, a big portion of ESS configurations show beneficial LCC results compared to non-ESS, pure diesel configurations. Some ESS configurations achieve substantial LCC savings over life time for different fuel price scenarios6. Sensitivity analysis of LCC results show that hybrid rail diesel vehicles are especially beneficial under high fuel price conditions, whether due to high diesel fuel prices or additional fuel taxes. Also, high annual mileages make ESS equipped rail vehicles more beneficial from a LCC perspective than lower annual mileages. In both cases, variable costs such as fuel costs increase (prices, taxes, consumption due to performed mileages) whereas ESS investment prices are fixed.

Further results from SP7 show that the use of ESS applications has to be assessed carefully depending on the operational conditions. Simulation and LCC results are only valid for the operational conditions (time tables, stops etc.) as set in the respective deliverables.

7.2 HYBRID SOLUTIONS FOR RAIL DIESEL VEHICLES – IMPACT ON TOTAL EXHAUST EMISSIONS AND CO2 EMISSIONS

Based on expected market size and development as included in D5.1.2 and in the ch. 3 Development of the European rail diesel fleet beyond 2020 as well as expected and favourable operational contexts for hybrid vehicles the market sizes for rail diesel hybrid vehicles is being developed.

The impact of hybrid rail vehicles is being assessed based on a scenario where all new vehicles of a relevant service type are being assumed to be hybrids due to favorable fuel and LCC results. It is an “extreme” scenario which shows the maximum potential from hybrids.

A scenario with a different assumption has been investigated, too. It is based on an assumption that 10% of all new vehicles are hybrids. Results show that the differences between this scenario and the initial SP5 scenario (without hybrids) are negligible and do not allow tangible conclusions.

Currently it is difficult to judge on the market availability of hybrid vehicles. To show the possible potential of hybrids an early market availability and entry is being assumed: 2017.

For the years 2017-2020 30 hybrid locomotives with 1000 kW and 150 hybrid DMUs per year are being assumed (it is being assumed that potential repowering of existing vehicles with hybrid propulsion systems is included in these numbers until 2020, no statements are possible for the years after 2020). As stated in the subchapters before, two scenarios for the years 2020-2030 have been developed. In the “High decommissioning and purchase rate” scenario 90 hybrid locomotives and 250 hybrid DMUs are being assumed to enter the fleet, in the “low decommissioning and purchase rate” scenario 40 hybrid locomotives and 150 hybrid DMUs are being assumed. All hybrid vehicles are NRMM stage IIIB compliant.

5 ESS investment costs are initial investment costs as well as ESS module replacement for electrochemical ESS6 Fuel price scenarios for LCC assessment within SP7 are identical with SP5, WP5.2.3, D5.3.1 and D5.3.2 Cost Benefit AnalysisCLD-D-IZT-017-01 of 51 18/10/2013


Based on these fleet development scenarios 600 hybrid DMUs and 120 hybrid locomotives (in the power range of 1000 kW) will be in service in the EU27 and EFTA in 2020. Regarding the “high decommissioning and purchase rate” scenario 3100 hybrid DMUs and 1020 hybrid locomotives are expected to be in service in 2030; the “low decommissioning and purchase rate” scenario results in 2100 hybrid DMUs and 500 hybrid locomotives in 2030.

Based on the above mentioned utilisation of hybrid vehicles the impact on the total diesel exhaust emissions is estimated and compared to the initial fleet development scenarios from SP5 without hybrid rail vehicles.

Results show that until 2020 the amount of total exhaust emissions is not reduced significantly (0.2 kt for NOx and almost no changes in PM). Until 2030 1.2 kt NOx are emitted less due to hybrid rail vehicles in the “high decommissioning and purchase rate” (0.75 kt NOx less in the “low decommissioning and purchase rate” scenario)7.

These results with very low changes in the amount of emitted emissions are due to the following aspects:

NRMM stage IIIB limit values are already very low, especially for DMUs;

o Exhaust emissions estimations are based on the average fuel consumption per train-km;

o Fuel consumption of hybrid vehicles is being assumed to be 20% lower in real operational conditions;

o Only a specific locomotive power range (around 1000 kW) with low average annual mileage per vehicle (27,000 km/a) sees the introduction of hybrid propulsion (line locomotives: 80,000-100,000 km/a per locomotive);

o This results in relatively low reduction of exhaust emissions per train-km and vehicle and thus, reduction of total exhaust emissions.

Only a limited portion of new vehicles is assumed to be hybrid vehicles, as mentioned before

The major amount of exhaust emissions comes from the existing fleet with old vehicles.

All in all, the total amount of exhaust emissions of the European rail diesel fleet does not change significantly due to the introduction of hybrid solutions.

Hybrid solutions for rail diesel vehicles – impact on external costsThe reduction of exhaust emissions from the introduction of hybrid rail vehicles is rather limited. Therefore no tangible statements on the effect on external costs from rail diesel operation including the introduction of hybrid vehicles are possible.

Hybrid solutions for rail diesel vehicles – impact on CO2 emissionsBased on the before mentioned utilisation of hybrid vehicles the impact on the total CO2

emissions is estimated and compared to the initial fleet development scenarios from SP5 without hybrid rail vehicles. The CleanER-D SP5 approach on estimating the CO2 emissions from rail diesel traction is described in detail in D5.1.2.

Based on the CleanER-D scenarios total CO2 emissions are reduced by 0.6% until 2020 from the introduction of hybrid rail diesel vehicles. Based on the “high decommissioning and purchase rate” scenario, CO2 emissions decline by approx. 3.1% until 2030 and in the “low decommissioning and purchase rate” scenario by approx. 2%. The major part of CO2 emissions

7 PM: -0.013 kt and -0.008 kt, respectively.CLD-D-IZT-017-01 of 51 18/10/2013


reduction result from hybrid DMUs due to the higher total numbers of hybrid vehicles and the higher average annual mileage per vehicle.

Again, fleet development scenarios after 2020 are based on a stable total number of rail diesel vehicles where old vehicles are put out of service and new vehicles enter the fleet, it is an artificial fleet development where only very limited conclusions are possible. Nevertheless, it can be concluded that the total amount of CO2 emissions can be reduced significantly, depending on the numbers of hybrid rail diesel vehicles put into service.

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8. ANNEX

8.1 DETAILED FLEET DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS AFTER 2020The following charts show the fleet development scenarios after 2020 for both high and low decommissioning and purchase rates per vehicle type and emission class.

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Figure 8-18: Diesel locomotives fleet development until 2030 – high decommissioning and purchase rate

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Figure 8-19: Diesel locomotives fleet development until 2030 – low decommissioning and purchase rate

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Figure 8-20: DMU fleet development until 2030 – high decommissioning and purchase rate

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Figure 8-21: DMU fleet development until 2030 – low decommissioning and purchase rate

8.2 EXTERNAL COSTS OF EXHAUST EMISSIONS FROM TRANSPORT

External/ damage costs from the draft EU “Handbook with estimates of external costs in the transport sector”:

PM2.5 (exhaust) NOx

Metropolitan Urban Non-urban

Austria 481.500,00 € 155.600,00 € 80.600,00 € 13.600,00 €

Belgium 495.100,00 € 159.800,00 € 106.900,00 € 8.700,00 €

Bulgaria 73.900,00 € 23.800,00 € 19.000,00 € 7.100,00 €

Czech Republic 381.300,00 € 122.900,00 € 94.600,00 € 10.600,00 €

Denmark 448.400,00 € 144.600,00 € 52.700,00 € 5.300,00 €

Estonia 265.100,00 € 86.200,00 € 44.700,00 € 2.800,00 €

Finland 407.900,00 € 131.400,00 € 34.000,00 € 2.600,00 €

France 453.800,00 € 146.100,00 € 90.800,00 € 10.500,00 €

Germany 430.500,00 € 138.800,00 € 83.900,00 € 12.700,00 €

Greece 338.400,00 € 109.100,00 € 47.600,00 € 2.700,00 €

Hungary 312.700,00 € 100.600,00 € 80.200,00 € 12.400,00 €

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Ireland 535.100,00 € 172.700,00 € 55.900,00 € 4.400,00 €

Italy 426.700,00 € 137.900,00 € 77.700,00 € 9.500,00 €

Latvia 233.800,00 € 75.200,00 € 43.400,00 € 4.000,00 €

Lithuania 253.900,00 € 82.500,00 € 50.800,00 € 5.600,00 €

Luxembourg 922.400,00 € 296.900,00 € 131.400,00 € 12.700,00 €

Netherlands 495.300,00 € 159.900,00 € 96.800,00 € 8.800,00 €

Norway 393.700,00 € 126.600,00 € 38.300,00 € 3.100,00 €

Poland 234.500,00 € 75.300,00 € 70.400,00 € 7.800,00 €

Portugal 299.600,00 € 96.500,00 € 44.400,00 € 1.500,00 €

Romania 63.700,00 € 20.500,00 € 16.300,00 € 9.700,00 €

Slovakia 332.100,00 € 106.300,00 € 89.700,00 € 11.000,00 €

Slovenia 350.300,00 € 112.600,00 € 72.600,00 € 11.500,00 €

Spain 384.800,00 € 123.900,00 € 52.900,00 € 3.600,00 €

Sweden 424.400,00 € 136.500,00 € 41.300,00 € 4.100,00 €

Switzerland 475.200,00 € 152.900,00 € 78.500,00 € 19.300,00 €

UK 453.200,00 € 145.900,00 € 70.700,00 € 5.200,00 €

Table 8-3: Air pollution cost factors in EUR/ton of pollutant (€2008 values) in the transport sector per country, pollutant and areaSource: External Costs of Transport in Europe. Update Study for 2008, p.38 8

The differences in the external costs from country to country result from differing damage and “repair” costs within the single member states. E.g. cancer treatment may be much more expensive in a Scandinavian country than in a South-East European country due to differing economic status and standards of living.

Note:

Urban metropolitan: cities with more than 0.5 million inhabitants Urban: smaller and midsized cities with up to 0.5 million inhabitants Nonurban: communities below 0.075 million inhabitants

Source: “External Costs of Transport in Europe. Update Study for 2008”, p. 24. Threshold at 0.075 million inhabitants based on own assumptions as no consistent definition available. The 2008 handbook and its 2011/2012 update use different and not clearly stated definitions, some EEA publications draw a threshold at 0.1 million inhabitants.

Urban Metropolitan Urban

Outside built-up areas/

Non-urbanShare of rail diesel exhaust

emissions within the different populated area types

3% 7% 90%

8 www.cedelft.eu/publicatie/external_costs_of_transport_in_europe/1258 CLD-D-IZT-017-01 of 51 18/10/2013

http://www.cedelft.eu/publicatie/external_costs_of_transport_in_europe/1258


Table 8-4: Distribution of exhaust emissions from rail diesel transport according to the types of population areas as defined in the EU Handbook with estimates of external costs in the transport sectorSource: CleanER-D project internal communication from one major European rail operator.

Share of total EU27 UIC train-

km, diesel locomotives


km, DMUs


km, diesel traction (locos

and DMUs)Austria 2.2% 1.6% 1.8%Belgium 1.2% 0.8% 0.9%Bulgaria 1.0% 0.4% 0.6%Czech Republic 4.1% 7.1% 6.2%Denmark 1.4% 3.6% 2.9%Estonia 1.1% 0.3% 0.5%Finland 2.2% 0.2% 0.8%France 8.9% 8.4% 8.5%Germany 26.9% 20.3% 22.3%Greece 2.3% 1.4% 1.7%Hungary 5.3% 3.2% 3.9%Ireland 2.2% 0.9% 1.3%Italy 5.8% 4.3% 4.7%Latvia 3.4% 0.3% 1.2%Lithuania 3.6% 0.4% 1.3%Luxembourg 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%Netherlands 0.0% 0.5% 0.3%Norway 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%Poland 7.7% 1.3% 3.3%Portugal 6.0% 2.6% 3.7%Romania 7.1% 1.5% 3.2%Slovakia 2.1% 1.2% 1.5%Slovenia 0.5% 0.6% 0.5%Spain 3.8% 2.4% 2.9%Sweden 0.9% 0.0% 0.3%Switzerland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%UK 0.0%9 36.1% 25.1%

Table 8-5: Share of performed train-km per vehicle type per country to the total train-km in the EU27 & EFTA in 2008

Source: UIC Official statistics, tab 41, 20089 Based on non-public sources the number of diesel locomotives in the UK is in the range of 600-800 line haul locomotives. As data on vehicle numbers in the table above are from UIC Official statistics, only UIC member companies and their vehicles are covered. For UK, ATOC is reporting statistical data to UIC whereas the numerous private rail freight operators, not members of UIC, are not included which results in data deviations.CLD-D-IZT-017-01 of 51 18/10/2013


CLD-D-IZT-017-01 of 51 18/10/2013


8.3 TOTAL EXHAUST EMISSIONS – SENSITIVITY

Results of exhaust emission scenarios with and without introduction of stages IIIA/IIIB, all results in kt.

Table 8-6: Detailed total exhaust emissions from rail diesel traction. Results for CleanER-D SP5 estimation and a scenario where NRMM stages IIIA/IIIB have not been introduced but all new vehicles and engines continue to comply with UIC II exhaust limit values. European railway operators, EU27 & EFTA, in kt

without IIIA/IIIB10 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

NOx Locos, no IIIA/B 138.802 135.008131.61

9 127.701 123.648119.65

1 115.525 111.461 107.272101.53

9 96.262 91.466 86.567

PM Locos, no IIIA/B 2.728 2.624 2.524 2.399 2.270 2.140 2.006 1.876 1.743 1.577 1.421 1.288 1.152

NOx DMUs, no IIIA/B 39.229 39.798 40.302 41.103 41.903 42.689 43.475 44.266 45.057 45.848 46.639 47.458 48.276

PM DMUs, no IIIA/B 0.928 0.918 0.902 0.910 0.918 0.925 0.933 0.941 0.949 0.958 0.966 0.975 0.983

with IIIA/IIIB11 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Locos NOx, with IIIA/B 138.397 133.935129.71

7 124.655 119.433114.05

4 108.516 103.145 97.622 90.432 83.669 77.785 71.778

Locos PM, with IIIA/B 2.728 2.624 2.524 2.399 2.270 2.136 1.998 1.864 1.727 1.552 1.385 1.241 1.095

DMUs NOx, with IIIA/B 38.237 38.272 38.185 38.528 38.558 38.498 38.438 38.383 38.328 38.272 38.217 38.342 38.467

DMUs PM, with IIIA/B 0.928 0.918 0.902 0.910 0.905 0.899 0.894 0.889 0.884 0.880 0.875 0.871 0.866

10 Continuation of UIC II, i.e. all new vehicles/ engines entering the fleet are UIC II compliant. See ch. 5.1 The impact of introducing NRMM stages IIIA/IIIB(“what-if scenario 1”)11 CleanER-D SP5 exhaust emissions estimation, as developed in D5.1.2 Sustainability Study – Update CLD-D-IZT-017-01 of 51 18/10/2013


Delta (in red colour) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Locos NOx0.404 1.073 1.902 3.046 4.215 5.596 7.008 8.315 9.650 11.107 12.592 13.681 14.789

Locos PM 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.008 0.012 0.016 0.026 0.036 0.047 0.057

DMUs NOx0.992 1.526 2.117 2.575 3.345 4.191 5.037 5.883 6.730 7.576 8.422 9.116 9.809

DMUs PM 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.013 0.026 0.039 0.052 0.065 0.078 0.091 0.104 0.117

CLD-D-IZT-017-01 of 51 18/10/2013


8.4 ANNEX TO CHAPTER 5.3 GOING BEYOND IIIB – IMPACTOF STRICTER LIMIT VALES ON THE TOTAL EXHAUST

EMISSIONS (“WHAT-IF SCENARIO 4”)

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IIIB continues vs. new stage after 2020

Total NOx, scen. I (low numbers of new vehicles), IIIB continues after 2020Total NOx, scen. I (low numbers of new vehicles), new stage after 2020

Figure 8-22: Development of total NOx emissions until 2030 with a stable fleet size after 2020. Low numbers of new vehicles & low decommissioning rates of old vehicles. Range of total NOx emissions – upper values: emissions if stage IIIB still valid after 2020; lower values: emissions if all new vehicles after 2020 do not emit NOx.

CLD-D-IZT-017-01 of 51 18/10/2013


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Total NOx exhaust emissions from rail diesel tractionEstimation until 2030 - scenario II (high number of new vehicles)


Total NOx, scen. II (high numbers of new vehicles), IIIB continues after 2020Total NOx, scen. II (high numbers of new vehicles), new stage after 2020

Figure 8-23: Development of total NOx emissions until 2030 with a stable fleet size after 2020. High decommissioning rates of old vehicles & high numbers of new vehicles within a constant fleet. Range of total NOx emissions – upper values: emissions if stage IIIB still valid after 2020; lower values: emissions if all new vehicles after 2020 do not emit NOx.

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Total PM exhaust emissions from rail diesel tractionEstimation until 2030 - scenario I (low number of new vehicles)


Total PM, scen. I (low numbers of new vehicles), IIIB continues after 2020Total PM, scen. I (low numbers of new vehicles), new stage after 2020

CLD-D-IZT-017-01 of 51 18/10/2013


Figure 8-24: Development of total PM emissions until 2030 with a stable fleet size after 2020. Low numbers of new vehicles & low decommissioning rates of old vehicles. Range of total PM emissions – upper values: emissions if stage IIIB still valid after 2020; lower values: emissions if all new vehicles after 2020 do not emit PM.

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Total PM exhaust emissions from rail diesel tractionEstimation until 2030 - scenario II (high number of new vehicles)


Total PM, scen. II (high numbers of new vehicles), IIIB continues after 2020Total PM, scen. II (high numbers of new vehicles), new stage after 2020

Figure 8-25: Development of total PM emissions until 2030 with a stable fleet size after 2020. High decommissioning rates of old vehicles & high numbers of new vehicles within a constant fleet. Range of total PM emissions – upper values: emissions if stage IIIB still valid after 2020; lower values: emissions if all new vehicles after 2020 do not emit PM.

8.4.1 Total exhaust emissions until 2030 – comparison with other dataThe following charts show the comparison with data from EEA (European Environmental Agency) on past emissions from rail diesel traction as well as with data on future development from the PRIMES model (and results of the JRC NRMM Review with emission inventory for 2005). The comparison shows an acceptable consistency for NOx emissions and a deviation for PM emissions.

A similar estimation has been performed within the “2007 Technical Review of the NRMM Directive 1997/68/EC” by JRC12 in 2007 which resulted also in deviations between model data and calculations:

“Results from both scenarios, listed in Tables 7.5 and 7.7, show that the high usage and high power scenario 1 clearly overestimates the fuel consumption from the Diesel Rail study by a factor of 2.5. Also the calculated NOx emissions are about 4 times higher RAINS predictions, while PM emissions, calculated with about 10 kt, are only half of the RAINS predictions (26 kt). It

12 2007 Technical Review of the NRMM Directive 1997/68/EC as amended by Directives 2002/88/EC and 2004/26/EC, Final Report, http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/newsroom/cf/itemlongdetail.cfm?lang=en&item_id=3649&tpa=163&displayType=library CLD-D-IZT-017-01 of 51 18/10/2013

http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/newsroom/cf/itemlongdetail.cfm?lang=en&item_id=3649&tpa=163&displayType=library

http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/newsroom/cf/itemlongdetail.cfm?lang=en&item_id=3649&tpa=163&displayType=library


is obvious that the second scenario should result in even lower PM emissions due to the reduced engine power and engine usage.

The second scenario, assumed to be more realistic, gives now a much lower calculated fuel consumption, while NOx emissions from calculation fit well with the NOx emissions predicted by RAINS. But here the PM emissions calculated with the low power/usage assumptions are about one order of magnitude lower than the RAINS predictions. This indicates that most probably either the PM emission factors must be reviewed or the RAINS prediction methodology.”13

In this case, RAINS is also a model database and a policy scenario based on the National Emissions Ceilings (NEC) Directive, GAINES/ PRIMES is the successor of RAINS.

In the present total exhaust emission estimation NOx emissions between CleanER-D estimation and model data show a good consistency and for PM emissions a comparable deviation can be observed as reported in the JRC report.

As both estimations of emissions – CleanER-D and JRC – and models, respectively, show deviations in the same range this indicates that the models’ prediction methodologies may need a review. Deviations for PM may indicate a too high estimation of PM emissions in the models.

The observed deviations may result from different calculation approaches: within CleanER-D SP5 actual real world exhaust performance of diesel vehicles was used instead of limit values. For UIC II and IIIA vehicles PM emissions are in reality lower by a factor 2 to 2.5 (based on RDS and ARCADIS NRMM review) whereas observed NOx emissions are not deviating significantly from the limit values.

Figure 8-26: Comparison of CleanER-D SP5 NOx emissions estimations from rail diesel traction until 2030 with data from EEA statistics, GAINS/ PRIMES model data and JRC NRMM review results, European railway operators, EU27 & EFTA

13 Ibid.: Final Report, Part II, p. 117CLD-D-IZT-017-01 of 51 18/10/2013


Figure 8-27: Comparison of CleanER-D SP5 PM emissions estimations from rail diesel traction until 2030 with data from EEA statistics, GAINS/ PRIMES model data and JRC NRMM review results, European railway operators, EU27 & EFTAResults from GAINS/ PRIMES for 2030 for NOx show that actually no rail diesel fleet and transport is being assumed at this time which is not realistic as results of the ClenER-D SP estimation show. The long in-service time of rail diesel vehicles shows clearly that in 2030 there will be still a substantial rail diesel fleet with a substantial transport performance in Europe.

8.5 HIGH RATE OF REMOTORISATION OF EXISTING FLEET – IMPACT ON TOTAL EXHAUST EMISSIONS (“WHAT-IF SCENARIO

5”)The assessment of a theoretical new stage after 2020 with no emissions shows that the existing fleet has still a significant impact in terms of total exhaust emissions. Within the “what-if scenario 5” a different approach is assessed to reach the very low total exhaust emissions as shown in scenario 4: a high rate of remotorisation of existing and old vehicles.

The intention of this scenario is to show up alternative approaches to decrease the total exhaust emissions from diesel railway transport in Europe beyond 2020.

Different assumptions on remotorisation can be made. For the present scenario the following boundary conditions are set:

Remotorisation starts in 2011 and continues until 2020. No new stage after 2020 (NRMM IIIB continues after 2020 and all new vehicles have IIIB

compliant engines (pls. compare to “what if scenario 4“) Remotorisation takes place with NRMM stage IIIA compliant engines. DMUs:

CLD-D-IZT-017-01 of 51 18/10/2013


o Remotorisation of 250 DMUs p.a. for 2011 and 2012 and 500 DMUs p.a. 2013-2020: 250 DMUs p.a. (4200 repowered DMUs in 2020),

o For DMUs remotorisation of UIC I & EURO I compliant engines (until 2016) and UIC II & EURO II compliant engines (from 2013 on) is being assumed.

It is being assumed that remotorisation of older vehicles/engines is economically and/or technically not feasible.

Locomotives:o Remotorisation of 250 locomotives per year (2500 repowered diesel locomotives in

2020).o Remotorisation of locomotive engines takes place in the power range of 1200-

1999 kW14.o Remotorisation of pre-UIC I engines (until 2015, no pre-UIC I engines with 1200-

1999 kW in the fleet after 2015), continuing with pre-UIC I advanced (also until 2015)15, UIC I (until 2017) and UIC II until 2020.

Again, as no tangible conclusions can be made on the fleet development after 2020, a constant total fleet is being assumed after 2020 for both locos and DMUs – new vehicles come into the fleet and old vehicles are put out of service. Two different scenarios on the fleet renewal after 2020 are assumed (as introduced in ch. 3 Development of the European rail diesel fleet beyond2020).

As the fleet development after 2020 is rather theoretical (whereas the fleet development until 2020 has been widely discussed and approved within the CleanER-D SP5 team) no remotorisation after 2020 has been included.

Detailed charts with the fleet development can be found in the annex, ch. 8.3 Total exhaustemissions – sensitivity.

The following charts show the resulting exhaust emissions until 2030 from a high remotorisation rate, as described above. For comparison reasons, results from ch. 5.3 Going beyond IIIB –impact of stricter limit vales on the total exhaust emissions (“what-if scenario 4”) are included in the charts again (broken lines).

As one can see, exhaust emissions decrease almost immediately from remotorisation and are significantly lower in 2020 (the broken line chart until 2020 represents the initial exhaust emissions scenario with the initial remotorisation assumptions and new vehicles with IIIB engines).

After 2020 emissions from the theoretical “what-if scenario 4” become lower than emission from the “high remotorisation scenario 5” only for a high decommissioning and purchase rate assumption and after 2025 (PM) and 2027 (NOx), respectively.

This comparison shows that significant total exhaust emissions reductions from rail diesel traction can be achieved, based on an ambitious remotorisation campaign, starting from now on and even using only IIIA technologies. Of course, it has to be stated clearly that such a scenario is only feasible from an economical point of view if the remotorisation solutions deliver also fuel consumption savings as fuel costs are main cost drivers over the lifetime as shown in the deliverables D5.3.1 and D5.3.2 Cost Benefit Analysis.

It is difficult to conclude how realistic such a remotorisation campaign is. In ch. 8.5.2 Pastremotorisation of old rail diesel vehicles an overview on remotorisation efforts in the past is given, based on information from the Rail Diesel Study and CleanER-D SP5 questionnaire survey. The

14 See D5.1.2 Sustainability Study – Update, Annex V, ch. 6.4.3 Fleet characteristics. Assumption: remotorisation of lower and higher powered locomotives economically and/or technically not feasible.15 For information on pre-UIC I “advanced”, see D5.1.2 Sustainability Study – Update, Annex V, ch. 6.4.3 Fleet characteristicsCLD-D-IZT-017-01 of 51 18/10/2013


information show that there were only limited remotorisation efforts in the past which included only low numbers of diesel rail vehicles.

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Total NOx emissions, fast decommissioning Total NOx emissions, slow decommissioningTotal NOx, new stage after 2020, fast decom. Total NOx, new stage after 2020, slow decom.

Figure 8-28: Development of total NOx emissions until 2030 with a stable total fleet size after 2020. Comparison of results of two scenarios: “high remotorisation rate until 2020” vs. “new stage after 2020 with 0.0 g/kWh”. Low and high decommissioning rates of old vehicles after 2020.

CLD-D-IZT-017-01 of 51 18/10/2013


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Total PM exhaust emission from rail diesel tractionHigh remotorisation rate of old vehicles to NRMM stage IIIA, EU27 & EFTA

Total PM emissions, fast decommissioning Total PM emissions, slow decommissioningTotal PM, new stage after 2020, fast decom. Total PM, new stage after 2020, slow decom.

Figure 8-29: Development of total PM emissions until 2030 with a stable total fleet size after 2020. Comparison of results of two scenarios: “high remotorisation rate until 2020” vs. “new stage after 2020 with 0.0 g/kWh”. Low and high decommissioning rates of old vehicles after 2020.

8.5.1 High rate of remotorisation of existing fleet – impact on external costsThe assessment of a scenario with a high remotorisation rate is twofold:

On the one side, a comparison of the total exhaust emissions until 2030 with a scenario where a new stage with 0.0 g/kWh is being introduced in 2020, as presented in the chapter before.

On the other side, a comparison of the impacts on the external costs of rail diesel exhaust emissions until 2020 with the initial CleanER-D SP5 scenario, which is being presented here.

The comparison of the external costs shows that there is a substantial benefit from avoided external costs from rail diesel exhaust emissions for a high remotorisation rate scenario compared to the initial CleanER-D SP5 scenario. The cumulated avoided external costs sum up to more than one billion Euro in 2020 (in the EU27 and EFTA member countries).

CLD-D-IZT-017-01 of 51 18/10/2013


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Figure 8-30: Comparison of annual external costs from rail diesel exhaust emissions – high remotorisation rate scenario vs. initial CleanER-D SP5 fleet scenario until 2020

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Locos and DMUs, European railway operators, EU27 & EFTA

Cumulated avoided external costs (from NOx emissions) from a high remotorisation rateCumulated avoided external costs (from PM emissions) from a high remotorisation rate

CLD-D-IZT-017-01 of 51 18/10/2013


Figure 8-31: Cumulated avoided external costs (societal benefit) from a high remotorisation rate scenario vs. initial CleanER-D SP5 fleet scenario until 2020

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Figure 8-32: Diesel locomotives fleet development per emission stage with high remotorisation rate, high decommissioning and purchase rate after 2020. CleanER-D SP5 estimation until 2030, EU27 & EFTA16

16 Minor deviations in the total numbers of vehicles for single vehicles, compared to initial fleet development scenario (see D5.1.2 Sustainability Study – Update) may result from differing allocation of remotorised vehicles.CLD-D-IZT-017-01 of 51 18/10/2013


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Figure 8-33: Diesel locomotives fleet development per emission stage with high remotorisation rate, low decommissioning and purchase rate after 2020. CleanER-D SP5 estimation until 2030, EU27 & EFTA

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CLD-D-IZT-017-01 of 51 18/10/2013


Figure 8-34: DMU fleet development per emission stage with high remotorisation rate, high decommissioning and purchase rate after 2020. CleanER-D SP5 estimation until 2030, EU27 & EFTA

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Figure 8-35: DMU fleet development per emission stage with high remotorisation rate, low decommissioning and purchase rate after 2020. CleanER-D SP5 estimation until 2030, EU27 & EFTA

8.5.2 Past remotorisation of old rail diesel vehiclesThe Rail Diesel Study (RDS) assessed in 2004-2006 the remotorisation17 efforts of the European railway operators and came to the following results:

“The results of the questionnaire showed that 18 out of 26 railway companies answering the questionnaire had done some kind of remotorisation (A/N: engine replacement) within their diesel fleet.

17 Definition of remotorisation/ re-powering: the same definition and understanding is used as in the Rail Diesel Study: “Re-engining (A/N: engine replacement) in this study is defined by an engine being replaced by a different engine of a new design to that originally provided with a vehicle.” Rail Diesel Study, WP1 Final Report, Status and future development of the diesel fleet, p. 17CLD-D-IZT-017-01 of 51 18/10/2013


Figure 8-36: Percentage of engines being re-engined: average and range of individual railway values, source: rail Diesel Study, UIC/CER 2006The average of all the re-engining (A/N: engine replacement) proportions of the companies that answered the questionnaire is between 5 % for main line locomotives and 10 % for railcars. High re-engining proportions can be found at MAV (Hungary), with 80 % of railcars, 10 % of mainline and 50 % of shunting locomotives being re-engined.

Furthermore more than 40 % of [the companies] railcar engines are re-engined at ZSSK (Slovakia) and ÖBB (Austria). Mainline locomotives are re-engined in rather high percentages at ÖBB (Austria) with 38 % and at ATOC members (UK, average of the companies that answered the questionnaire) with 37 %. Re-engining quota for shunting locomotives are rather high at DB AG (36 %), FS (Italy) (29 %) and CFF/SBB/FFS (Switzerland) (22 %).”

Within the CleanER-D questionnaire survey among the main European railway operators (2011)18 questions concerning plans for re-powering of existing rail diesel vehicles were included. There were answers from three railway operators on ongoing or future repowering campaigns which sum up to:

DMU engines: 388 (power range ~150 kW) to be replaced (2011-2013)

Loco engines: 92 (990-1400 kW) & 100 (330-560 kW) to be replaced with new ones (2011-2014)

These numbers show the numbers of ordered engines but no conclusions on the potential numbers can be derived from the questionnaire answers. Numbers in orders have not been confirmed by engine manufacturers, partners within CleanER-D.

The results from RDS show that major repowering campaigns have been performed in the late 1990ies and at the beginning of the new millennium. It can be assumed that several railway operators have satisfied their needs regarding up-to-date diesel engines in their old diesel vehicles and that no further major repowering campaigns may take place in these companies. 18 Eight major operators: ATOC, CD, DB, OEBB (ÖBB), RENFE, SNCB, Trenitalia, SNCF, data from 2009, 2010 and 2011, depending on operator.CLD-D-IZT-017-01 of 51 18/10/2013


Detailed data on past repowering and feedback mainly from two operators within the CleanER-D questionnaire survey show that past repowering of locomotives (that have taken part since mid-1990ies and future plans until 2014) concerned engines in the high power ranges of more than 900 kW for heavy shunting and main line locomotives (sample size from questionnaire is approx. 600 loco engines from repowering campaigns from mid-1990ies until 2014).

Nevertheless, remotorisation campaigns included only limited numbers of vehicles.

CLD-D-IZT-017-01 of 51 18/10/2013

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