Clean Energy Technology TrendsTestimony before the House Appropriations

Subcommittee on Energy & Water

Ethan Zindler

February 07, 2019

1 February 07, 2019

Energy efficiency Solar Natural Gas

0.0m 0.5m 1.0m 1.5m 2.0m 2.5m 3.0m 3.5m

Jobs in select energy segments, 2017

Sustainable energy jobs, 2017

Jobs in select segments of U.S. energy

Source: The U.S. Energy Employment Report, NASEO and EFI. Notes: The data provided relies on thousands of data points provided via survey. Transmission, distribution, and oil/petroleum jobs not included as available data does

not break out the portion of those jobs relevant to the electricity sector. See footnote on next slide for details on the definition for “Advanced Gas.” Chart to appear in 2019 Sustainable Energy in America Factbook

3.4 million

Fuels

Generation

81820415367

65

107

354093

350

66965

10474

312

Ge

oth

erm

al

Oth

er

sto

rage

Pu

mp

ed

hyd

ro

Ad

va

nce

dG

as

Ba

tte

rysto

rag

e

Hyd

rop

ow

er

Nucle

ar

Win

d

Oth

er

Ge

nera

tio

n

Bio

en

erg

y/

CH

PCoa

l

So

lar

Natu

ral G

as

En

erg

ye

ffic

ien

cy

Thousands of jobs

379

144167

74115

2,207

2 February 07, 2019

Source: BloombergNEF Notes: Includes new investment in wind, solar, biofuels, biomass, waste, energy smart technologies (such as electric vehicles and lithium-ion batteries), and other

renewables/low carbon services.

New investment in clean energy: >$3 trillion to date

3 February 07, 2019

Source: China Association of Automotive Manufactures, BloombergNEF.

Electric vehicle sales: accelerating

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2015 2016 2017 2018

China Europe North America Japan Korea

EV share of overall passenger vehicle sales

4 February 07, 2019

Source: BloombergNEF. Based on confidential survey of buyers/sells or li-ion batteries conducted annually by BNEF.

1,160

899

707650

577

373

288214

176

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Battery pack price (real 2018 $/kWh)

22%

21%

8%11%

35%

23%

26%18%

Lithium-ion battery prices: down another 18% in 2018

5 February 07, 2019

As battery prices fall, EV sales will rise

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Prices have been changed to real 2018 dollars

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Lithium-ion battery pack price (real 2018 $/kWh)

E-bus

Stationarystorage

PassengerEV

Observedprices

2024 implied price $94/kWh 2030 implied

price $62/kWh

Cummulative demand for lithium-ion batteries (GWh)

6 February 07, 2019

Electric vehicle forecasts: trending upward

Source: BloombergNEF, organization websites. Notes: BNEF-2016, BNEF-2017, and BNEF-2018 represent our revised annual forecasts. Some data points for BP, ExxonMobil and the IEA are estimated based on

organization charts, reports and data (estimates assume linear growth between known data points). Outlook assumptions and methodologies vary. BP only forecasted through 2035 in its 2016 and 2017 outlooks.

The IEA only forecasts through 2030. The IEA forecasts multiple scenarios (base case values are shown here). ExxonMobil and IEA forecasts prior to 2018 included BEVs, PHEVs and FCVs; all other forecasts

include just BEVs and PHEVs. See organization websites for authoritative viewpoints.

EV fleet size (millions)

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

BNEF – 2018

BNEF – 2017

BNEF – 2016

BP – 2018

BP – 2017

BP – 2016

ExxonMobil – 2018

ExxonMobil – 2017

ExxonMobil – 2016

OPEC – 2017

OPEC – 2016

OPEC – 2015

IEA – 2018

IEA – 2017

IEA – 2016

7 February 07, 2019

Source: BNEF. Data potrayed for residential solar on a $ per installed Watt basis. Build figures are given in gigawatts.

Residential solar costs Total photovoltaic build

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

1Q 2008 1Q 2009 1Q 2010 1Q 2011 1Q 2012 1Q 2013 1Q 2014 1Q 2015 1Q 2016 1Q 2017

Germany California Japan Chinese multi module

Australia (4kW) Vivint Sunrun U.S.

$/W(DC)

Solar: costs keep dropping, build keeps surging

7.7GW

18GW

28GW 30GW

42GW 45GW

56GW

75GW

97GW

111GW

121GW

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Europe Japan USA China India Rest of World

8 February 07, 2019

Source: BloombergNEF Note: onshore wind capacity factors

Bigger wind turbines are making more productive use of wind

75MW

299MW

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

capacity factor (%)

global capacity

factor forecast

range

operational

projects

weighted

average

9 February 07, 2019

Natural gas and renewables will dominate U.S. power generation

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2012 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Generation (TWh) Solar thermal

Small-scale PV

Utility-scale PV

Offshore wind

Onshore wind

Biomass

Geothermal

Hydro

Nuclear

Oil

Peaker Gas

Gas

Coal

Renewables share

Source: BloombergNEF New Energy Outlook projection to 2050.

10 February 07, 2019

Technology alone won’t save the day

Source: BloombergNEF 2018 New Energy Outlook (NEO). Blue line represents BNEF central scenario for global CO2 emissions. “Coal phase out” scenario

depicts emissions if all coal-fired power plants are brought off line in 10 years. “NEO 2018 2 degrees” shows the level of CO2 emissions reduction required of the

power sector to keep global temperature rises within 2 degrees C.

NEO 2018

Coal phase out

NEO 2018 2 degrees

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2012 20172020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Global power sector CO2 emissions (MtCO2)

11 February 07, 2019

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