clean energy for los angeles - final clean (1) · this report provides a roadmap to 100 percent...

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CleanEnergyforLosAngelesAnanalysisofapathwayfor100percentrenewableenergyinLosAngelesby2030

PreparedforFood&WaterWatch

March7,2018AUTHORS

PatKnightArielHorowitz,PhDSpencerFieldsNinaPeluso

SynapseEnergyEconomics,Inc. CleanEnergyforLosAngeles

CONTENTS

FOREWORD.......................................................................................................ES-1

EXECUTIVESUMMARY.........................................................................................ES-2

1. BACKGROUND.................................................................................................11.1. California’selectricgrid......................................................................................................1

1.2. LosAngelesDepartmentofWaterandPower....................................................................5

1.3. RenewablepolicyinCaliforniaandLosAngeles.................................................................6

2. ANALYSISAPPROACHANDMODELINGMETHODOLOGY.............................................102.1. TheEnCompassModel.....................................................................................................10

2.2. Keyinputassumptions.....................................................................................................11

2.3. Whatcountsasrenewablegeneration?...........................................................................14

2.4. Differenceinpolicycaseinputs........................................................................................15

3. FINDINGS.....................................................................................................163.1. Capacity...........................................................................................................................16

3.2. Generation.......................................................................................................................17

3.3. 100percentrenewableoperation....................................................................................18

3.4. Emissions.........................................................................................................................20

3.5. Systemcosts....................................................................................................................21

3.6. KeydifferencesbetweenPolicycases..............................................................................23

CONCLUSIONS......................................................................................................24

APPENDIXA.THEENCOMPASSMODEL.....................................................................A1

APPENDIXB.MODELINGINPUTASSUMPTIONS.............................................................B1ModelingBackground...............................................................................................................B1

ModelingInputs........................................................................................................................B1

SynapseEnergyEconomics,Inc. CleanEnergyforLosAngelesES-1

FOREWORD

Wenowsitatacriticalenergyfuturecrossroadthatwilldecidethefateoftheplanet.Ifwecontinuetotraveldownourcurrentpathoffossilfueladdiction,relyingprincipallyoncoal,oil,andgastopowerourhomes,businesses,andtransportation,wewillfaceanintensifyingclimatedisasterofwildfires,floods,droughts,andotherdevastatingandunavoidablepublicandenvironmentalhealthimpacts.

Orwecanchangecourseandchoosetheroadto100percentrenewables.Wecancreateasocietywhereclean,carbon-freesolar,wind,andgeothermalsourcesprovidealltheenergyweneedtomaintainourcurrentlifestylewhilesavingtheplanet.Giventheconsequences,thechoicewemustmakeisclear.

Thisreportprovidesaroadmapto100percentrenewableenergyforLosAngeles,enablingthedrivetoacleanenergyfuture.TheroadmaplaysoutcriticalstepstoabetterfutureforLosAngeleswhileprovidingamodelothercitiesandstatescanalsofollowtomoveawayfromfossilfuelstowardcleanenergysystems.

LosAngeles’electedleaders,shouldtheyadoptthisplan,willhavethepowertoturnthefossilfueltidebymandatingthattheLosAngelesDepartmentofWaterandPower(LADWP)transitionto100percentrenewableenergyby2030.LADWPisthecountry’slargestpublicutility—itsleadershipinthistransitionwouldsetapowerfulexampleforthenationandtheworld.Arenewably-poweredLosAngeleswillcleantheair,createwell-paidlocaljobs,promoteenergyindependence,andleadtosaferandhealthiercommunitiesforthecity’s4millionresidents.

Moreover,thisstudydemonstratesthatLosAngeles’transitionto100percentrenewableenergyisnotonlyfeasible,butthatitwillactuallybecheaperforLADWPratepayers.Prioritizationofdistributedrooftopsolarandenergyefficiencywilldrivedowncosts.

Thetransitioncontemplatesaphase-outoffossilfuelinfrastructureincludingrefineries,gas-firedpowerplants,oilandgaswells,pipelines,andgasstoragefacilitiesthatpoisonresidents.Removingthesepollutionsourceswillcleanupourcommunities,savemoney,andmakeLosAngelessaferduringdisasters,likeearthquakes.Itisalsoimportantthattheneedsofdisplacedworkersinthefossilfuelindustryaretakenintoaccountwithjobtrainingandpriorityforemploymentintherenewablesector.

Whilethisreportshowsthatthisnecessarytransitionispossible,itisnowuptoMayorEricGarcettiandtheLosAngelesCityCounciltotakeactiontomakeithappen.Andit’suptoeveryAngelenotoexercisetheirpoliticalpowerandpushtheirMayorandCouncilmemberstoundertakethistransitionnow.Youngerandfuturegenerationsarecountingonustosucceed.

WenonahHauterExecutiveDirectorFood&WaterWatch


EXECUTIVESUMMARY

TheLosAngelesDepartmentofWaterandPower(LADWP)ispushingaheadwithambitiousgoalstoachieve100percentrenewableenergyandisintheprocessofanalyzingafuturewiththatlevelofrenewablegrowth.ThisreportprovidesLADWPwitharoadmapfortwopossiblepathstoachieve100percentrenewableenergyby2030,includingapaththatcansaveratepayersmoney.

LADWP,thelargestmunicipally-runutilityinthecountry,servesnearly1.5millionresidentialhouseholdsandbusinessesinLosAngelesCounty.Thecountyhousesaquarterofthestate’spopulationandaccountsforaboutonetenthofallofCalifornia’selectricityneeds.

Asthestatewiththehighestamountofrenewablegenerationto-date,Californiaisoneofthefirststatestoexperienceoperationalissuesintegratinghighlevelsofvariablegenerationfromwindandtime-concentratedoutputfromsolarfacilities.ForLADWP,orCaliforniaforthatmatter,tobecomewhollypoweredbyrenewablesitmustrequirethatdemandineveryhouroftheyearismetwithrenewableenergy.

Inordertounderstandtheimpactofa100percentrenewablepolicyinLADWP’sserviceterritory,Food&WaterWatchretainedSynapseEnergyEconomics(Synapse)toanalyzehowcurrentelectricaltrendsinLADWPwoulddifferfromafutureinwhichallofLADWP’sneedsaremetthroughnon-emittingrenewables.Usingtheutility-gradeEnCompasselectricitymodel,Synapsemodeledabusiness-as-usual“Reference”caseandtwounique100percentrenewableLADWPcases(collectively,thePolicycases):onereliesheavilyuponutility-scalesolar(theUtility-Scalecase),andtheotherreliesmoreondistributedsolarandstorage(theDistributedcase).Ouranalysisandfindingsfollow.

InthisanalysisoftwopotentialLADWPfutures,wefindthatitis,infact,possibleforLADWPtoexclusivelyuserenewableresourcestopoweritssystemineveryhouroftheyear.What’smore,achievingveryhighlevelsofrenewableintegrationinLADWPdoesnotrequireasubstantialdeparturefromtheReferencecasewithinthefirstseveralyearsofthestudy,allowingLADWPabrief,butnecessary,windowtoplanhowtobestoptimizeafuture100percentrenewablesystem.

Tomeetelectricityneedsineveryhourwith100percentrenewableresources,LADWPmustintegrateandharnessrenewableenergymoreefficientlythroughadditionalefficiency,storage,anddemandresponse.

Inordertoreach100percentrenewableenergyineveryhour,LADWPwillneedtocloseordivestfromallfossil-fueledgeneratorsinitscurrentportfolio.ThismovesbeyondendingitscommitmenttopurchasecapacityfromtheIntermountaincoalplantandincludesretiringallofitslocallyownedandoperatednaturalgasandlandfillgasfacilities.However,asidefromthesechanges,bothour100percentrenewablePolicycaseshavesimilarlevelsofoverallrenewablecapacityastheReferencecasein2030.Thekeydifferenceliesinhowthegridisoperated—toreach100percentrenewablegenerationineveryhouroftheyear,LADWPwillneedtoinvestinenergyefficiencytoreduceoverallload,encouragedemandresponseprogramstoreducethestrainofpeakhoursonthesystem,andbuildstoragecapacity


tostoreandspreadsolargenerationthroughouttheday.Importantly,these100percentrenewablescenariosdonotallowforcompliancethroughthepurchaseofunbundled(orundeliverable)RenewableEnergyCredits(RECs).Instead,thescenariosrequireallrenewablegenerationusedtoreachthe100percenttargettobeeithersourcedinLosAngelesCountyordirectlydeliverabletotheLADWPgrid.AsseeninFigure1,LADWPwillrelyuponefficiency,demandresponse,andstoredsolargenerationtoclosethegapfromretiringfossilresources.

Figure1.LADWP’sannualgenerationinselectyearsundereachmodeledscenario

Note:Inthischart,onlycapacitylocatedinordirectlyconnectedtoLADWPisshown.“Other”isprimarilynucleargeneration.

A100percentrenewablefutureexceedsthetargetedemissionreductionsofcurrentregulations.

California’sexistinglegislationrequireseachutilitytoreach50percentrenewablegenerationby2030,aswellastoreduceemissionsto1990levelsby2020andto80percentbelow1990levelsby2050.1UndertheReferencecase,emissionsinLADWP’sserviceterritoryareexpectedtodecreasefromthe14.4millionmetrictonsemittedin2015—or19percentbelow1990levels—tojustunder2millionmetrictonsperyearin2030.2InthePolicycasesemissionsareeliminated,leadingtoafully-decarbonizedelectricsectorby2030(seeFigure2).

1CaliforniaExecutiveOrderS-3-05,availableathttps://www.gov.ca.gov/news.php?id=18612LADWP2016IRP,ES-11.


Figure2.LADWPelectric-sectorCO2emissionsfrom2017to2030

Achieving100percentrenewableintegrationinLADWPdoesnotrequireasubstantialdeparturefromtheReferencecasewithinthefirstseveralyearsofthestudy.

Through2020,thecapacitymixinLADWPinboththeReferencecaseandthePolicycasesarenearlyidentical.TheReferencecasejusthasslightlymorestoragethantheUtilityScalecasein2020andslightlymoredistributedsolarintheDistributedcasein2020.By2025,theReferenceandPolicycasetrajectoriesremainsimilar,butthecleanenergytransitionisthoroughlyunderway:by2025,naturalgascapacityhasdecreasedby50percent,areductionoffsetlargelybyefficiencyandgeothermalpower.By2030,theoverallrenewablecapacityintheReferencecaseandPolicycasesisrelativelysimilar,withtheexceptionoftheretirementofallofLADWP’snaturalgasgeneratingcapacityintheUtilityScalecase.IntheDistributedcase,allofthegascapacityintheregionstillretiresby2030andLosAngeleshasover15percentmoredistributedgenerationcapacitythantheReferencecasein2030.Whilebothdistributedandutilitysolararemodeledasreceivingthesamecapacitycreditforplanningpurposes,distributedsolaroperatesatalowercapacityfactor,meaningmoredistributedcapacityandstoragecapacityarenecessarytotrulytakeadvantageoftheavailablesolarenergy.ThefactthatthethreescenariosaresosimilaroverthefirsteightyearsofthestudyperiodwillallowLADWPtimetofurtherstudy,planfor,andoptimizetheiroperationstoharnesstherenewablegenerationonitsgridtothelevelnecessarytomeet100percentofneedwithrenewablesin2030.Importantly,thelargeamountofdistributedgenerationaddedintheDistributedcasehelpstoreducetheneedforsomeofthetransmissionanddistributionsystemupgradesthatwouldotherwiseberequiredundera100percentrenewablescenario.

Ina100percentrenewable2030,hourlygenerationonthepeaksummerdaywillleveragesolarandstorage.


Anyelectricsectorfuturethatreaches100percentrenewablegenerationtomeetdemandineveryhouroftheyearwillnecessarilyrelyuponamixofstorage,renewablecurtailment,andnewtransmissionlines.Synapse’smodeledscenariofocusesonamixthatisheavyonstorageandcurtailment,whilelightonnewtransmission.Asaresult,thehourlygenerationresultsforapeakdayin2030inthePolicycasesrelyuponsolarandsolar-poweredstoragetomeetdemand:intheUtilityScalecase,thesolargenerationislargelyutility-scale(seeFigure3),whileintheDistributedcase,thesolargenerationislargelydistributed(seeFigure4).

Figure3.2030hourlygeneration,representativepeakday,UtilityScalecase


Figure4.2030hourlygeneration,representativepeakday,Distributedcase

A100percentrenewableLADWPispossible,anditcostsnearlythesameastheReferencecaseonaNetPresentValuebasis.

NotonlydidwefindthatitistechnicallypossibletooperateLADWP’ssystemwith100percentrenewableresourcesineveryhouroftheyear,thenetpresentvalueofthedifferenceincostbetweentheReferencecaseandDistributedcaseisnearlyeven(seeFigure5).Whilenoneofthescenariosareinexpensive,however,theproductioncostsavingstoLADWPthroughoutthestudyperiodmeanthatthecostofthelastpushto100percentrenewablesin2029and2030aremitigatedintheDistributedcase.Importantly,thesecostresultspresenttheutilitysystemcostsanddonotincludetheconsumer-sidecostsofinstallingrooftopsolar.


Figure5.DifferenceinannualelectricsystemexpenditureDistributedcasesavingsinLADWP,relativetoReferencecase

Conclusion

A100percentrenewablefuturemaybeambitiousbutitisachievable.Thepagesthatfollowwilldemonstratethatitis,infact,possibleforLADWPtouseexclusivelyrenewableresourcestopoweritssystemineveryhouroftheyear.AchievingveryhighlevelsofrenewableintegrationinLADWPdoesnotrequireasubstantialdeparturefromtheReferencecasewithinthefirstseveralyearsofthestudy,allowingLADWPabrief,butnecessary,windowtoplanhowtobestoptimizeafuture100percentrenewablesystem.Tosecurethiscleanenergyfuture,LADWAPwillneedtostrengthenitsoperationofthesystembyleveragingstorage,demandresponse,andenergyefficiency.

Thisstudyillustratestheabilityofthegridtoprovidegenerationtomeetdemandassumingafuturewithhighrelianceonnon-dispatchablegeneration.Itdoesnotaddressallofthetechnicaloperationsofthegridunderthistypeofresourcemix.WhilethePolicycasesdonotrequireasubstantialdeparturefromtherenewablecapacitybuildsoftheReferencecase,theydorequireanewapproachtosystemplanningandoperationfromLADWP.Fromasystemcostperspective,a100percentrenewablefutureforLADWPmaybepossibleatnoincrementalcosttotheReferencecase.

WeintendforthisanalysistosupportongoingplanningprocessesandprovideabenchmarkincomparingpotentialhighrenewablesfuturesforLosAngeles.ThescenariosdiscussedinthisreportareonlytwoofmultiplepathsLADWPcouldchoosetoreach100percentrenewables.

Withinthisanalysis,forinstance,thecostsassociatedwithascenariothatleansheavilyonutility-scalesolarareborneoutdifferentlythanthecostsresultingfromdistributedsolarscenario.Withgreaterlevelsofutilityscalesolar,theoverallsystemcostsincrease,representativeofutilitiesbuildingand


integratingnew,largescalecapacity.Onthecontrary,higherlevelsofdistributedgenerationresultinlowersystemcosts,astheneedforcapacityanddistributionsystemupgradesareavoided,buthighercoststoindividualconsumers,representativeoftheresponsibilitytoprocurecapacityshiftingfromtheutilitytothecustomer.NeitherofthePolicycasesincorporatesthecostsassociatedwithavoidingadversehealthimpactsandotherexternalitiesassociatedwithfossilfuelgeneration;thePolicycasesmayinfactbeevenmoreeconomicalincomparisontotheReferencecasethanthisstudyshows.

Otherpotential100percentrenewablescenariosmayleanmoreheavilyonstorageresources,allowforcompliancethroughout-of-regionpurchasesofcleangeneration,orrelyupononnascenttechnology,suchasfloatingoffshorewindturbines.Thisanalysisdoesnotsuggestthatonepossibilityisbetterormorerealisticthananother;rather,ourfindingsclearlyshowthata100percentrenewablefutureispossible,thatitcanpotentiallybeachievedatnoincrementalcost,andthatLosAngelesshouldmobilizenowinordertomeetitsgoal.

SynapseEnergyEconomics,Inc. CleanEnergyforLosAngeles1

1. BACKGROUND

Californiaisthemostpopulousstateinthecountrywithnearly40millionresidents.Themajorityofthestateisservedbythreemaininvestor-ownedutilities(IOUs)—SouthernCaliforniaEdison,SanDiegoGasandElectric,andPacificGasandElectric—whichaccountforthree-quartersofCalifornia’selectricsales.WhilethesethreeutilitiesarecollectivelydispatchedbyCalifornia’scentralIndependentSystemOperator(CAISO),otherareasofthestateactindependentlytoprocuresupplyandmeetelectricitydemand.OnesuchareaisLosAngelesCounty,whereelectricityisprovidedbytheLosAngelesDepartmentofWaterandPower(LADWP).

1.1. California’selectricgrid

Since1990,California’selectricsectorhasbeenservedbyamixofnaturalgas,nuclear,andrenewablecapacity,inadditiontoimportsfromoutofstate.Naturalgashasdominatedthestate’selectricityoutputfornearlythreedecades,fluctuatingbetween40and60percentofoverallin-stategenerationeachyear(seeFigure6).Inthelastfiveyears,thenatureofCalifornia’selectricgridhasbeguntoundergoatransition,asevidencedbyrecentincreasesofin-staterenewablegenerationanddeclininggenerationfrombothnuclearandcoalunits.Whilecoalhasneverrepresentedmorethanafewpercentofin-stategenerationinthepast30years,nuclearresourceshavehistoricallyprovidedabout20percentofthestate’sannualgeneration.FollowingtheretirementoftheSanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation(SONGS)in2012,onlytheDiabloCanyonnuclearfacilityremains,providingabout10percentofthestate’sgeneration.However,withitslicensessettoexpireinthemid-2020s,DiabloCanyon’sownershaveannounceditwillgothewayofSONGS,withitstwounitsretiringin2024and2025.3

3Seehttp://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-diablo-canyon-nuclear-20160621-snap-story.html


Figure6.Historicalin-stateelectricitygenerationinCalifornia,percentofstatetotal

Source:EIA923data.Note:Otherincludesoil,biomass,municipalsolidwaste,landfillgas,andotherbiofuelsandwastefuels.Renewablesincludesgeothermal,solarPVandsolarthermal,andwind.

Today,California’sannualdemandforelectricityisabout280TWh.4Tomeetthisdemand,Californiaimports30percentofitselectricityfromneighboringstates.Oftheelectricitygeneratedin-state,aroundhalfcomesfromnaturalgas,whiletheremaininghalfissplitbetweennuclear,hydro,wind,solar,andotherresources(seeFigure7).California’selectricitydemandcomprises7percentofthetotalnationalelectricitydemand.5

4ATWhisequaltoonemillionMWh.5Nationally,aboutoneone-thirdofelectricityisgeneratedfromcoal,one-thirdfromnaturalgas,20percentfromnuclear,withhydro,wind,solar,andotherresourcesmakinguptheremaining15percent.


Figure7.ElectricitygenerationandsalesforCalifornia

California’sloadisservedbythreemainIOUs—SouthernCaliforniaEdison,SanDiegoGasandElectric,andPacificGasandElectric—aswellasnearlyfiftymunicipalutilitiesandirrigationdistricts(seeFigure8).ThesethreemajorIOUsservenearly75percentofallcustomersinthestateandabout70percentofallload.However,LADWPisactuallythethirdlargestutilityinthestate,servingmorecustomersandgreaterloadthanSanDiegoGasandElectric.


Figure8.MapofCaliforniautilityserviceareas

Source:http://www.energy.ca.gov/maps/serviceareas/electric_service_areas.html


1.2. LosAngelesDepartmentofWaterandPower

LADWPwasfoundedoveracenturyagowhenthecityofLosAngelespurchasedaprivatelyheldwatercompany.Soonafter,LADWPbeganservingelectricalloadinadditiontowaterdeliveriesthroughoutLosAngelesCounty.With10millionresidents,LosAngelesCountyisthelargestcountyinthestate,morethandoublethesizeofthenextlargestcountybypopulation.LADWPprovideselectricityfornearly1.5millionresidentialandbusinesscustomersthroughoutLosAngelesCounty.Currently,LADWPprovidesabout23TWhofenergyconsumptiontoitscustomers,morethantheelectricityconsumptionof13entirestates.

Asanindependentsystemdispatcher,LADWPisnotonlyresponsibleforprovidingelectricitytoretailconsumers,butalsoforproducingandprocuringelectricityfrompowergenerators.WhiletherecurrentlyareaboutthreedozenpowerplantslocatedwithinLosAngelesCounty,LADWPalsoholdscontractsforimportedelectricityfromgeneratorslocatedelsewhereinCaliforniaandinotherstates.Currently,aboutone-thirdofthiselectricityiscontractedfromthecoal-firedIntermountainPowerPlantinUtah,whichLADWPplanstodivestfromby2025.ThisownershipandoperationofcoalcapacityisasignificantdeparturefromthethreemainIOUsinthestate,allofwhichhavecompletelydivestedfromcoalresources.InadditiontoIntermountainPowerPlant,one-quarterofLADWP’selectricitycomesfromnaturalgas-firedgeneration,muchofwhichislocatedinLosAngelesCounty.One-tenthofitselectricitycomesfromcontractedimportsfornucleargenerationfromthePaloVerdepowerplantinArizona(seeFigure9).Theremainingone-thirdofelectricitycomesfromwind,solar,hydro,andothermiscellaneouspowerplants,someofwhicharelocatedinLosAngelesCountyandsomeasfarawayasthePacificNorthwest.

Figure9.ElectricitygenerationservingtheLADWPregion

Source:LADWP2016IRP,Figure2-14


1.3. RenewablepolicyinCaliforniaandLosAngeles

California’selectric-sectorgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionshavelongbeendominatedbynaturalgas(seeFigure10).Whiletheabsolutevalueofannualemissionsinindividualyearsmayhavevariedoverthelasttwoandahalfdecades,variationsinhydropoweroutputandeconomicrecessionshaveresultedinanoveralltrendinelectricsectoremissionsofsteady,ifslim,growth.Mostrecently,electricsectoremissionshavebeenabout10percentabove1990levels.However,multiplepiecesoflegislationarenowinplacethataimtoreduceGHGemissionsinboththeLADWPserviceterritoryandstatewide.Amongthosepoliciesistherenewableportfoliostandard(RPS).

Figure10.HistoricalemissionsinCalifornia’selectricsector,millionmetrictons

Source:EIAStatelevelemissionsdata,availableat:https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/state/

HistoryofclimatelegislationinCalifornia

Californiahasalonghistoryofrenewableexpansionandcarbonemissionreductionlegislationin-state.Today’srenewablepoliciesbuildandexpandupontheongoinglegacyofCalifornia’sAB32,theGlobalWarmingSolutionsActof2006.Underthiscurrentlegislation,Californiaisrequiredtoreducesector-wideandstatewideemissionsto1990levelsby2020andto80percentbelow1990levelsby2050.6

Suchlevelsofemissionreductionswillnecessitatethatallsectorsbegintheprocessofdecarbonizing,whichoftenplacesanaddedburdenontheelectricindustry,asindustriesoncerunonfossilfuelsourcesbegintoelectrify.Thepathwaysthatvarioussectorstaketoachieveelectrificationwillimpactthe

6FormoredetailonAB32,seehttps://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/ab32/ab32.htm


electricsector,increasingdemandthatalreadymustbemetbyrenewableresourcesduetootherlegislation.7

HistoryofrenewablelegislationinCalifornia

Inadditiontolegislationthatplacescapsonemissions—andgeneration—fromfossil-firedunits,Californiahasenactedlegislationtorequirenewrenewablegeneration.In2002,theCaliforniaStateSenatepassedSB1078,creatingaRPSforthestatethatrequiredutilitiestoincreasetheshareofrenewablesintheirsystemby1percentperyear.8Fouryearslater,SB107waspassed,confirmingthepreviouslyproposedtargetof20percentrenewablegenerationby2010.9Asthattargetwassettoexpire,GovernorArnoldSchwarzeneggercontinuedtheRPSprogram,signingExecutiveOrderS-14-08toincreasetheRPStargetsto33percentby2020.10Finally,in2015,thestatepassedSB350,requiringloadservingentitiestomeet50percentoftheirdemandwithrenewableresourcesby2030.11

ThroughoutthehistoryofCalifornia’srenewableportfoliostandard,renewableshavebeendefinedasbiomass,solarthermal,solarphotovoltaics(PV),wind,geothermal,fuelcellswithrenewablefuelsources,smallhydro,digestergas,municipalsolidwaste,landfillgas,oceanwave,andoceanthermalortidalenergy.12Importantly,energyfrommunicipalsolidwasteandlandfillgasstillemitscarbondioxide(CO2)andotherco-pollutantsduringthegenerationprocess.Inaddition,todate,noneofthestate’sRPSpolicieshaverequiredthatacertainlevelofrenewablegenerationbemetduringeveryhour,butratherhaverequiredthataportionofannualsalesaremetbyrenewableresourceseachyear.

Considering100percentrenewabletargets

Californialegislatorscontinuetodebatelegislationthatwouldrequirethatthestatereach100percentrenewablegeneration.Asthefifthlargesteconomyintheworld,CaliforniawouldhaveasubstantialimpactonthefutureofcleanenergyintheUnitedStatesandtherestoftheworldifitpassedsuchabill.Itwouldprovideamuchlarger-scaleexampleofa100percentrenewablefuturethanHawaii,currentlytheonlystatewithashighofarenewableintegrationtarget.

7Whileanumberofstudiespresentpotentialdecarbonizationandelectrificationpathways,tworesourcesinparticularareworthcallingtoattention.First,aCalifornia-specific2013paper:Wei,M.,etal.2013.“DeepcarbonreductionsinCaliforniarequireelectrificationandintegrationacrosseconomicsectors.”EnvironmentalResearchLetters.Availableat:http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014038/pdf.Second,themorerecentNewEngland-wideSynapseandNortheastEnergyEfficiencyPartnershipscollaborativereport:Hopkins,A.etal.2017.“NortheasternRegionalAssessmentofStrategicElectrification.”NEEPandSynapse.Availableathttp://neep.org/sites/default/files/Strategic%20Electrification%20Regional%20Assessment.pdf

8http://www.energy.ca.gov/portfolio/documents/documents/SB1078.PDF9http://www.energy.ca.gov/portfolio/documents/documents/sb_107_bill_20060926_chaptered.pdf10http://www.energy.ca.gov/portfolio/11http://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=201520160SB35012CaliforniaSBX1-2,Section6(a)(1)http://www.energy.ca.gov/portfolio/documents/sbx1_2_bill_20110412_chaptered.pdf


Achievinga100percentrenewablefutureisasignificanttaskwithmanyobstacles—political,economic,oroperational—toovercome.Inadditiontoasignificantbuildoutofnewrenewablegenerators,meetingthistargetwillrequirestrongcommitmentstoenergyefficiencyanddistributedgenerationtoreduceoveralldemandonthesystem,aswellasstorageanddemandresponse(DR)programstoshiftloadandsaveexcessrenewablegenerationfortimesofneed.

Californiahasalreadyexperiencedtheramificationsofaddingsubstantiallevelsofsolar—bothutilityscaleanddistributed—tothegrid.Itisthefirststatetoreckonwiththeoperationalconstraintsposedbytheseresources.Theresultingeffectiveloadshapefromintegratinghighlevelsofsolarhascometobeknownasthe“duckcurve.”Intheduckcurve,loadincreasessteadilyinthemorningbeforedroppingabruptlyandremaininglowthroughoutthedayassolarresourcesproduceenergybehindthemeter.Alargeramp-upingenerationisthenrequiredtowardtheendofthedaywhengrossloadishighandsolarisnolongergeneratingathighlevels.

LADWPmovingto100percentrenewablegeneration

InSeptember2016,theLosAngelesCityCouncilvotedtodirectLADWPtodevelopaplantomeet100percentoftheregion’sneedsthroughrenewablegeneration.13Inresponse,LADWPpublishedanupdatedversionofits2015IntegratedResourcePlan(IRP)studyingmoreaspirationalscenariosthanpreviouslyanalyzed.14However,scenariosinLADWP’s2016IRPstillfallshortof100percentrenewables,onlyseekingtoincreaserenewablesfrom25percenttodayto55percentby2030and65percentby2036.

Inits2016IRP,LADWPrecommendsacaseinwhichcoalisreplacedin2025,itsRPSisincreasedfrom33percentin2020to65percentin2036,localsolarcapacityisexpandedby1,500megawatts(MW)by2035,cumulativeenergyefficiencyreaches15percentofsalesby2020,andover400MWofenergystorageisbuiltby2025.15

Further,in2017,MayorEricGarcetticommissionedthe“SustainableCitypLAn”forLosAngeles.RecognizingthattheCityreceivesmorethan250daysofsunshineandhasenoughrooftopspacetohold5,500MWofsolarpower,thepLAnrecommendsbuilding900to1,500MWoflocalsolarcapacityby2025andatotalof1,500to1,800MWby2035.Additionally,thereportsuggestsbuilding1,645MWofenergystoragecapacityintheregion.Finally,thepLAnsuggestsimprovingbuildingefficiencyinorderto

13Page,S.2016.“LosAngelesCityCouncilbacksplanningfor100percentrenewableenergy.”ThinkProgress.Published

September16,2016.Availableathttps://thinkprogress.org/los-angeles-renewable-plan-passes-693daae39d82/14LosAngelesDepartmentofWater&Power.2016.“2016PowerIntegratedResourcePlan.”December2016.Availableat

https://www.ladwp.com/cs/idcplg?IdcService=GET_FILE&dDocName=OPLADWPCCB562207&RevisionSelectionMethod=LatestReleased

152016LADWPIRP.PageES-17.


reduceenergyusagepersquarefootby30percent,aswellasmeeting15percentofthecity’soverallenergyneedswithefficiencyby2020.16

AlongwithHawaii,Californiaisthestatefurthestalongthetrajectorytowardarenewablefuture.Assuch,itisthefirstonetotrulygrapplewiththeimplicationsofsuchafuturefromagrid,reliability,andintegrationcostperspective.Thestatethatfirstexploredthenotionofaduckcurvewillalsoleadnationaldiscussionsonhowbesttointegrateevenhigherlevelsofrenewablesinthenearfuture.Thisanalysisunearthswhatasystemthatcanmeet100percentofhourlydemandwithrenewablesourcesofgenerationmightlooklike.BystudyingtheimplicationsofsuchapolicyforLosAngeles,thisstudypresentsapossibleresourcemixforanot-too-distant100percentrenewablefutureforLosAngelesthatwillhelpinformhowcleanenergydecisionsaremadeintheCounty,thestate,andotherjurisdictionsnationwide.

16CityofLosAngeles.2017.SustainableCitypLAn.Availableathttp://plan.lamayor.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/the-

plan.pdf


2. ANALYSISAPPROACHANDMODELINGMETHODOLOGY

InordertoanalyzetheabilityofLADWPtomeeta100percentrenewablefutureexclusivelywithnon-emittingresourcesineveryhouroftheyear,Synapseappliedscenarioanalysis,ananalyticalapproachthatallowsustoexaminenumerouspossiblefutureoutcomes.ImportantinanyscenarioanalysisistheconstructionofaReferencecase.Thiscaserepresentsabusiness-as-usualfuturethatoutlineswhatwillhappenifcurrentpolicies,technologycosts,andotherrelevantassumptionsdonotchange.UsingaReferencecasetoestablishwhatthefuturewilllooklikeiscriticalbecause—evenwithoutanypolicychanges—itwilllooksubstantiallydifferentthantoday.Inthisanalysis,weassumethataReferencecaseisoneinwhichLADWPfollowstherecommendationslaidoutinits2016IRP(i.e.,65percentrenewablesby2036)andelectricutilitiesintherestofCaliforniameetthelawsandregulationsthatarecurrentlyinplace.

SeparatefromtheReferencecasearethePolicycases.Inthisanalysis,weusethePolicycasestoexamineafutureinwhich100percentofLADWP’sdemandismetbynon-emitting,renewableresourcesineveryhouroftheyearby2030.Inthisanalysis,weevaluatetwoPolicycases,oneinwhichsystemplanningapproachestodistributedsolararelargelyunchangedfromthepresent,resultinginacasewithrelativelyhigherlevelsofutility-scalesolar(UtilityScalecase)andasecondcaseinwhichthree-quartersofallavailablerooftopsinLosAngelesconstructrooftopsolar(Distributedcase).17Theadjustmentstosolarresourcesarenottheonlychangestothescenarios,butratheraretheoutcomesthatarerepresentativeofotherdecisionsmade.Forinstance,theDistributedcasereliesupontheassumptionthatLADWPwouldchangetheirapproachtosystemplanningwithregardtothecapacitycreditaffordeddistributedgenerationandtheabilitytointegratedstorageontothesystem.Thefollowingsectionoutlinestheinputs,assumptions,andmodelingmethodologyappliedduringouranalysis.

2.1. TheEnCompassModel

SynapseutilizedtheEnCompassmodelforourscenarioanalysis.EnCompassisasingle,fully-integratedpowersystemplatformthatallowsforutility-scalegenerationplanningandoperationsanalysis.EnCompassprovidesunit-specific,detailedforecastsofthecomposition,operations,andcostsoftheregionalgenerationfleetgiventhespecifiedassumptions.18SynapsesetupEnCompasstoanalyzeLADWP,therestofCalifornia,andtheentireWesternInterconnectonanannualbasisfrom2016through2030.Thisincludedspecifyingloadandgenerationregions(ofwhichLADWPisone)and

17SeeLosAngeles’SustainableCitypLAnathttp://plan.lamayor.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/the-plan.pdfformore

informationonrooftopsolarpotentialinLosAngeles.18SynapseusedEnCompassVersion2.7.MoreinformationonEnCompassisavailableatwww.anchor-power.com.


specifyingattributesforallexistingpowerplants,suchasoperatingcosts,heatrates,andemissionrates.19

2.2. Keyinputassumptions

Anymodelingexerciseishighlyreliantupontheinputassumptionsused.Forthisanalysis,SynapsereliedmostlyuponthebasedatasetfromCalifornia’sIRPproceeding,whileadjustinganumberofkeyelements,asdescribedbelow.Importantly,fromaninputassumptionperspective,thetwoPolicycasesareidenticalasidefromtheirtreatmentofsolarcapacitywithinLADWP.DifferencesintheresultsofthetwoPolicycasesarerepresentativeofthisonekeychangeininputassumptions.

Demandforecast

Themainpartofasalesforecastistheeconometricsalescomponent.Forthisanalysis,weassumedthateconometricelectricsalesforLADWPandtherestofCaliforniafollowtheprojectiondescribedintheFebruary2017editionoftheCaliforniaEnergyDemandUpdate(CEDU).20Additionally,Synapseassumedabaselineamountofincreasedelectrificationinallscenarios.TheCaliforniaEnergyCommission’s2016IntegratedEnergyPolicyReport(IEPR)assumesthatby2025,LADWPwillfeatureabout600gigawatt-hours(GWh)ofincreasedsalesfromelectricvehicles,andCaliforniaasawholefeatures2,100GWhofelectricvehicle-relatedsales.21ForLADWP,thisrepresentsanincreaseinsalesbyabout3percentin2025.

Inadditiontoestimatingthemaindemandforecast,itisnecessarytoalsodevelopaprojectionforprogrammaticenergyefficiency.22Californiaisamongtheleadingstatesintermsofenergyefficiency:inthe2017ACEEEStateEnergyEfficiencyScorecard,Californiaisrankedsecondinthenation,whileaccordingtothe2016ACEEEScorecard,ittiedforfirstalongwithMassachusetts.In2015,Californiaachievedannualincrementalsavingsof2percentperyear,onparwithVermont,buttrailingthesavingsachievedbyRhodeIslandandMassachusetts(whichreached3percentperyear).InLosAngeles,energy

19ManyoftheReferencecaseinputsforthisstudyweretakenfromplanningprocessesconductedbyLADWP,theCalifornia

PublicUtilitiesCommission(CPUC),ortheWesternElectricityCoordinatingCouncil(WECC).Inparticular,weusedloadforecastprovidedbyLADWPtotheCPUCandreliedonresourcecostandavailabilityassumptionsthatwereformulatedaspartoftheCaliforniastateIRPprocess.Ourbasemodelingdataset,includingunit-specificcostandperformanceassumptionsandtransmissiontopology,wasadaptedfromthepublicly-availableWECCTransmissionExpansionPlanningPolicyCommittee2026referencecasedatabase.

20ReferredtoastheIEPR2016Update.Availableathttp://docketpublic.energy.ca.gov/PublicDocuments/16-IEPR-05/TN215745_20170202T125433_FINAL_California_Energy_Demand_Updated_Forecast_20172027.pdf

21Seehttp://docketpublic.energy.ca.gov/PublicDocuments/16-IEPR-05/TN215504_20170123T111108_FINAL_CEDU2016_LADWP_Mid_Demand_Case.xlsandhttp://docketpublic.energy.ca.gov/PublicDocuments/16-IEPR-05/TN215506_20170123T111112_FINAL_CEDU2016_STATEWIDE_Mid_Demand_Case.xlsformoreinformation

22BecausesalesaretreatedasaconstraintbytheEnCompassmodel,theenergyefficiencyforecasthastobehard-coded:wecannotgivethemodelacostforenergyefficiencyandallowitto“choose”tobuildit,likeitcanwithrenewablesorothertypesofresources.


efficiencypotentialisparticularlyhigh.Inthecity,4percentofbuildingsconsume50percentofLADWP’senergy,indicatingthatintelligent,cost-effectiveprogramsatthosebuildingscouldleadtosignificantenergyusereductionstoLADWP’ssystem.23GiventhishistoricallevelofachievementinenergyefficiencysavingsinconjunctionwithLosAngeles’energyconsumptionprofile,SynapsemodeledaReferencecaseforecastbasedupontheCEDUreport,andaHighEEcaseforecastthatassumed3percentsavingsperyearasof2024.ThefinaldemandforecastisdemonstratedinFigure11.

Figure11.ForecasteddemandforelectricityinLADWP,inclusiveofenergyefficiencyandelectricvehicles

Whileanyfullyzero-carbonorcarbon-neutralfuturewillrequireindustry-widechangestothetransportation,residential,commercial,andtheindustrialsectors,ouranalysisdoesnottakeintoaccountanyloadofafullydecarbonizedforallsectorsinLosAngeles.24

LADWPrenewableportfoliostandardrequirements

Currently,California’sRPSrequiresCaliforniautilities(includingLADWP)toprocure50percentoftheirelectricsalesfromrenewablesby2030.LADWPproposestoexceedthisstandardintheir2016IRP,

23Formoreinformation,seetheEnergyAtlasatCaliforniaCenterforSustainableCommunities(CCSC)atUCLAInstituteofthe

EnvironmentandSustainability.Availableathttp://www.energyatlas.ucla.edu/profiles/kWh/cities49andhttps://mynewsla.com/government/2016/12/13/la-takes-major-step-in-reducing-building-energy-consumption/.

24TheoneexceptiontothisisabuildoutofanelectrifiedbusfleetwithinLosAngeles,leadingtoanincreaseinLADWP’ssalesof3percentby2025.Ourtreatmentofelectricvehiclesishigh-level.WemakenoassumptionabouttheabilityofEVstostoreenergyorassistwithgriddispatch.


reaching55percentin2030,whichwehaveappliedastheRPStrajectoryintheReferencecase.AsseeninFigure12,the100percentRPStrajectoryrepresentsasignificantdeparturefromthecurrenttarget.

LosAngelesalreadyhas180MWofinstalledlocalsolar,makingitthecitywiththemostinstalledsolarcapacityinthecountry,andithasplanstobuildevenmore.25Thecity’sinauguralsustainabilityplanfrom2015-2016posesagoaltoachieve900to1,500MWoflocalsolarinLosAngelesby2025.

Figure12.ModeledRPSrequirementsintheLADWPregion

Note:The“PolicycaseRPS”trajectoryisappliedinboththeUtilityScalecaseandtheDistributedcase.

Storageprocurementtargets

LADWPcurrentlyplanstoprocure155MWofenergystorageby2021.26InlinewithCalifornia’soverallstoragemandate,andrecognizingthedecliningcostsofstorageasaresource,LADWPplanstoprocurenearly130MWatthegenerationandtransmissionlevels,25MWatthedistributionlevel,andanadditional2MWatthecustomerlevelby2021.Thisisinadditiontotheover20MWofstoragealreadyoperatingonitsgrid.

25“LASustainableCitypLAn”,availableat

https://www.lamayor.org/sites/g/files/wph446/f/landing_pages/files/pLAn%20first%20annual%20report%202015-2016_0.pdf

26https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/ladwp-jtti/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2017/08/16111845/Energy-Storage-Presentation-August-15-2017.pdf


Resourceretirements

LADWPhasannouncedthatitwillceasetopurchaseelectricityfromthecoal-firedIntermountainPowerProjectin2025.Withtheendofthatcommitmentalsocomestheendofcoal-firedgenerationanywherewithintheLADWPsystem,leavingnaturalgasandlandfillgasunitsastheonlysourcesofGHGemissionsontheLADWPgrid.IntheReferencecase,theseresourcesremainonlineuntiltheendoftheirusefullifeoruntilanalreadyannouncedretirementdatewithinthestudyperiod.InthePolicycases,however,allofthesecarbonemittingresourcesareretiredby2030.

Demandresponse

Akeyelementofafuturegridthatintegrateshighlevelsofrenewablegenerationwillbetheabilitytoshift,delay,oraltogetherreduceload.Unliketheoutputfromconventionalfossilfuel-firedresources,renewablegenerationcannotbescheduled.Asaresult,itisimportanttobeabletonotonlystorerenewablegenerationthatoccursattimesoflowdemandinordertouseitduringtimesofhighdemand,butalsotobeabletoadjustdemandsothatitoccursmoreinlinewithwhenrenewableresourcesaregenerating.Demandresponseprogramsattheresidential,commercial,andindustriallevelsareanidealwaytoachievejustthatgoal.Infact,LADWPalreadyprovidesademandresponseprogramavailabletocommercial,industrial,andinstitutionalcustomers.27

In2015,theDRPilotProgramcurtailednearly98MWh.Whileasignificantstepintherightdirection,these98MWhrepresentonlyhalfapercentofoverallannualgenerationinLADWP.Astheregionmovestowards100percentrenewablesinallhours,however,thisnumberwillnecessarilyincreasesubstantially.

2.3. Whatcountsasrenewablegeneration?

Although“cleanenergy”and“renewableenergy”areoftenusedinterchangeably,thereareimportantdifferencesbetweenthetwotypesofresources.Cleanenergyisoftenconsideredtoincludeanytypeofresourcewithcarbon-freegeneration.Notably,thisdefinitionmayincludenuclearresources.28Renewableresources,ontheotherhand,havearegeneratingsourceofenergy.Forinstance,windresourcesarerenewablebecausewindregeneratesandcannotbedepleted.Thesamecanbesaidforsolarpoweredresources.Onthecontrary,biomass-typeresourcesrelyuponthecombustionofbiofuelssuchaswood,algae,methane,andotherbiologically-createdsubstances.Whilethefuelsourcesforbiomassandlandfillgasregenerate,theydonotnecessarilydosoonatimelineshortenoughtobeconsideredrenewable.

27Formoredetails,seehttps://www.ladwp.com/ladwp/faces/ladwp/commercial/c-savemoney/c-sm-rebatesandprograms/c-

sm-rp-demandresponse28Nevertheless,nuclearunitsrequirelargeamountsofconcrete–alargesourceofcarbonemissions–duringconstruction,

leadingsomeobserverstosuggestthatnuclearunitsarenotcarbon-freeafterall.


Oftenwhenbiofuelsareconsideredrenewable,itisbecauseoftwokeyunderlyingassumptions:(1)theenergyproducediscarbonneutraland(2)thefuelsourcesburnedforelectricgenerationwillregrowandare,thus,renewableresources.However,thisisoftennotthecaseinpractice.A2010reportintheJournalofForestryexpressedconcernatthesustainabilityofcurrentpracticesassociatedwithharvestingthefuelsourcesusedforbiofuelcombustion,callingintoquestiontherenewablenatureofwoodfuelsusedforelectricitygeneration.29In2012,Synapsepublishedareportoutliningthelifecyclecarbonfootprintofelectricityproductionfrombiofuels,pointingoutthatwoodybiomassisfarfromcarbonneutralanditsemissionsshouldbeaccountedforinGHGinventorying.30

Inthisstudy,weassumethatwind,solar,hydro,andgeothermalresourcesarenon-emittingrenewables.Thisalsoincludesstorageresourcespoweredbytheseresourcetypes.Importantly,weexcludelandfillgas,biomass,andbiogasresources.IfLADWPisseriousaboutachievingdeepemissionreductionsinthetimeframenecessarytoavoidtheworstimpactsofcatastrophicclimatechange,thenitwillneedtophaseouttheuseofthesenonrenewable,emittingresources.

Additionally,inthisstudy,weassumethattheentiretyofcompliancewiththe100percentRPSoccurseitherwithresourceslocatedwithinLosAngelesCounty,orthroughthepurchaseofbundledRenewableEnergyCredits(RECs),whichrequiresthattherenewableenergybedelivereddirectlytoLADWP.WhilesomestatesallowforRPScompliancethroughthepurchaseofunbundledRECs—i.e.,asacreditforinvestinginrenewableenergy,withoutactuallyneedingtodelivertherenewableenergytocustomersinthatstateorutilityserviceterritory—weonlyallowbundledRECstobeusedforcomplianceinourmodeling.IfLADWPintendstomeeteveryhourofdemandwithrenewablegeneration,itmustfocusondeliveringrenewableenergydirectlytoLADWPcustomersandnotonachievingcompliancethroughtokeninvestmentsinnon-deliverablerenewableslocatedelsewhere.

2.4. Differenceinpolicycaseinputs

TheUtilityScaleandDistributedcasesresultindifferentlevelsofinstalledcapacityattheutilityanddistributedscales,aswellasdifferentlevelsofstoragecapacity.Afewkeydifferencesininputassumptionsdrivethoseoutputs.TheDistributedcaserequiresthemodeltobuildahigherlevelofrooftopsolarthanintheUtilityScalecase,inlinewithagoalofplacingsolaronthree-quartersofallrooftops.Additionally,intheDistributedcase,weadjustedtheeffectiveloadcarryingcapabilityofdistributedsolar—i.e.,theabilityoftheresourcetocontributetopeakdemandforsystemplanningpurposes—to50percent.Thesetwoadjustedinputs,takeninlinewiththefactthatutilityscalesolaroperatesatahigherannualcapacityfactorthandistributed,leadtothedifferencesinstorage:theDistributedcaserequiresmorestoragecapacitytofullytakeadvantageofthedistributedresources.

29Janowiak,M.andC.Webster.2010.“PromotingEcologicalSustainabilityinWoodyBiomassHarvesting.”JournalofForestry.

January/February2010.Availableathttp://cemendocino.ucanr.edu/files/131364.pdf30Fisher,J.,S.Jackson,andB.Biewald.2012.“TheCarbonFootprintofElectricityfromBiomass.”SynapseEnergyEconomics.

Availableathttp://www.synapse-energy.com/sites/default/files/SynapseReport.2012-06.0.Biomass-CO2-Report.11-056.pdf


3. FINDINGS

ThefollowingsectiondetailsinitialresultsfromSynapse’smodelingofabusiness-as-usualReferencecaseandtwodistinct100percentrenewablefuturesintheLADWPPolicyCases.ThekeyoutputsoftheEnCompassmodelpresentedwithinareLADWP-specificcapacity,generation,emissions.Costsbyresourcetypearerelativetopresentoperations.

3.1. Capacity

InLADWP,thelargestdifferencebetweentheReferencecaseandthePolicycasesisinthedisplacementofexistingnaturalgascapacityandthegrowthofstorage.IntheReferencecase,renewablecapacitymorethandoublesby2030ascomparedtotodaybyadding4gigawatts(GW)ofsolarcapacityandover500MWofwind(seeFigure13).IntheUtilityScalecase,energyefficiencyandanincreaseinstoragemeansthatLADWPbuildsasimilaramountofsolarandwindandnearly2GWofstoragecapacity.TheDistributedcase,ontheotherhand,builds16percentmorecapacitythantheReferencecase,mostlyintheformofsolar(4.3GWofdistributedsolaralone,and5.7GWtotal)andstoragecapacity(2.7GW).ThisincreasedlevelofbothdistributedsolarandstoragecapacityintheDistributedcaseascomparedtotheotherscenariosislargelyduetothefactthatdistributedsolarhasalowercapacityfactorandismoredistributedinnaturethanutilityscalesolar;thus,morestoragecapacityisnecessarytofullytakeadvantageoftheincreaseindistributedsolarcapacity.WhileasmallamountofthewindthatisbuiltinbothscenariosislocatedwithinLosAngelesCounty,LADWPalsocontractswithwindresourcesintheNorthwesttotransmitdirectlyintotheregion.31

31Importantly,theresourcesintheNorthwestarenotconnectedtoLADWPthroughahigh-voltage,directcurrent(HVDC)line.

Rather,theyareelectricallydeliverabletoLADWPduetopre-existingconnectionsbetweenLADWPandtheNorthwest.


Figure13.LADWP’selectricgeneratingcapacityinselectyearsundereachmodeledscenario

Note:ThisfigureonlypresentsinformationoncapacityforresourceswithintheLAbasinandforthoseresourcesthathaveadirectlinktoLADWP–suchasIntermountainPowerPlant—butnotcontractedresourcesoutsideoftheLADWPterritory.

3.2. Generation

GiventhesimilarlevelsofoverallrenewablecapacityprocuredforLADWPintheReferenceandPolicycases,thekeydifferencebetweentheReferencecaseanda100percentrenewablefutureisintheoperationofLADWP’sgrid(seeFigure14).BothPolicyCasesmustfind6.6TWhofcleangenerationwithwhichtoreplacethegenerationlostfromtheretirementofthePaloVerdenuclearfacilityin2029,aswellasfromtheretirementoftheentirefossilfleet.32AlthoughboththeReferenceandUtilityScalecasedispatchasimilarlevelofsolargenerationinrealtime,theUtilityScalecasestoresover4TWhofsolargenerationtodispatchlaterthroughoutthedayorweek.IntheDistributedcase,thisdifferenceisevenmoreapparent,withLADWPstoring7.7TWhofsolargenerationforfutureuse.BothPolicycasesinvestin2.7TWhofenergyefficiency,reducingtheoverallneedintheregion,whilealsoreceivinganadditional1TWhofenergyreductionsfromdemandresponsethanintheReferencecase.IntheReferencecase,naturalgasgenerationinLADWPdecreasesby50percentoverthestudyhorizon,whileitiscompletelyphasedoutby2030inthePolicycases.

32NotethatthisanalysisdoesnotattempttoquantifythecostimpactsofLADWPwithdrawingfromitscontractwithPalo

Verdeaheadofthe2047expiration.


Figure14.ElectricgenerationinLADWPinselectyearsundereachmodeledscenario

3.3. 100percentrenewableoperation

Importantly,theresultspresentedinFigure14arerepresentativeofmeetingLADWPloadexclusivelywithrenewableresourcesineveryhouroftheyear.ByconstrainingthemodeltonotallowLADWPtoimportgenerationfromanynon-renewableresources,wewereabletoensurethateveryhourofdemandinLADWPwasmetbyrenewablegeneration.Notably,themajorityofloadismetbysolargeneration,eitherdirectlyatthetimeofgeneration,orafterhavingbeenusedtochargebatteries.Asindicatedbyitsname,theUtilityScalecaseseesthemajorityofgenerationcomefromutilityscalesolar;meanwhile,dailyloadintheDistributedcaseismetmostlybydistributedgeneration.Additionally,demandresponseplaysalargeroleinbalancingloadsinfutureyears,reaching10percentofloadinLADWPintheReferencecase,11percentintheDistributedcase,and12.5percentintheUtilityScalecase.

Theseannualtrendsholdtrueathourlyresolution.IntheReferencecase,LADWPmeetsitspeakAugustdayprimarilywithsolar,fossilgeneration,andimports(seeFigure15).InbothPolicycases,ontheotherhand,allfossilresourceshavebeenretired,whileevenmoresolarandstorageresourceshavebeenbuilt.FortheUtilityScalecase,thismeansthatLADWPstoresutilityscalesolarforuselateronarepresentativepeakday(seeFigure16);fortheDistributedcase,ontheotherhand,regionalneedismetmostlybydistributedsolarresources(seeFigure17.)


Figure15.2030hourlygeneration,representativepeakday,Referencecase

Figure16.2030hourlygeneration,representativepeakday,UtilityScalecase


Figure17.2030hourlygeneration,representativepeakday,Distributedcase

Theresultspresenttwokeytakeawaysfor100percentrenewablefutures.First,bothofourPolicycasesresultinsignificantcurtailmentofrenewablesattheendofthestudyperiod,asaresultofnotbuildinganynewtransmissionintoandaroundLADWP.Togetto100percentrenewableenergyineveryhourwillrequireamixofstoragecapacity,curtailmentofrenewablesandnewtransmission;ourscenarioselectedamixthatisheavieroncurtailmentandstoragethantransmission,butthatisnottheonlypossiblemixtoreach100percentrenewables.Second,theresourcebuild-outinthesecasesrepresentonlytwoofmanypotentialgenerationandcapacitymixesthatcanreach100percentrenewables.Whileweoptimizedourmodelingbaseduponcurrentcosttrendsforvariousrenewabletechnologies,itispossiblethatinfutureyearsthecostsofrenewableandstoragetechnologiesmaychange,makingadifferent100percentrenewablescenariomorecost-effectiveandfeasiblethanthosepresentedhere.

3.4. Emissions

ThreebillsinCaliforniacombinetoaimtoreducestatewideGHGemissionsby40percentbelow1990levelsby2030.33Asdescribedabove,LosAngeleshasanevenmorestringentGHGemissionreductiontargetthanCalifornia,aimingfor35percentbelow1990levelsby2030.Asof2015,LADWP’s14.4millionmetrictonsofCO2emissionswerealready19percentbelow1990levels.TheReferencecaseseeselectricsectoremissionsdecreasingevenfurther,to1.9millionmetrictonsin2030,areductionof

33AB32,SB32andAB197.See2016LADWPIRP,p.ES-4.


over80percentfrom2015emissions.Meanwhile,bothPolicycasesreduceemissionsentirelyby2030(seeFigure18).

Figure18.LADWPelectric-sectorCO2emissionsfrom2017to2030

3.5. Systemcosts

Figure19illustratestheprojecteddifferenceinannualsystemcoststoLADWPfrom2020through2030inboththeReferencecaseandUtilityScalecase.Figure20showsthedifferenceincostsbetweentheReferencecaseandDistributedcase.Thesecostsareaproductoftotalregion-widegenerationrequirementsandthebalancingarea’sload-weightedenergyprice.BothfiguresalsodisplaythecumulativeNPVofthedifferencebetweenscenariosovertime.Between2017and2030,thecostoftheReferencecaseisatanNPVof$49billionata5percentdiscountrate.Meanwhile,theUtilityScalecaseasmodeledwouldcost$56billion,andtheDistributedcasewouldcost$47billioninNPVterms.Assuch,theUtilityScalecaseresultsinacumulativeNPVincreaseof$7billion(14percent)relativetothe


Referencecase,whiletheDistributedcaseresultsina$2billiondecrease(4percent),relativetotheReferencecase.34

TheoverallincreaseinsystemcostintheUtilityScalecase(relativetotheReferencecase)involvesthecostsassociatedwithbuildingadditionalstorageandgeothermalcapacity,aswellaswithincreasinginvestmentsinenergyefficiencyanddemandresponse.AlthoughtheDistributedcasebuildsevenmoresolarandstoragecapacitythantheUtilityScalecase,overallsystemcostsareoffsetbythefactthatthemajorityofthesolarcapacityprocuredoccursbehindthemeter.Importantly,thecustomercostsassociatedwithprocuringdistributedgenerationarenotincludedinthetotalsystemcostspresentedinthisreport.ThetotalsystemcostisrepresentativeofthecoststhatwillbepassedthroughtoallconsumersbyLADWP;however,costsforindividualconsumersmaybehigherdependingupontheirprocurementofdistributedsolartechnologies.Ontheotherhand,totalsystemcostsmaybemitigatedevenfurtherinafuturethatincorporatesagreaternumberofelectricvehiclesorifotherstorage-likeresourcesbecomeavailableatareasonablecost.

Figure19.AnnualelectricsystemexpenditureUtilityScalecasesavingsinLADWP,relativetoReferencecase

34ThisanalysiswasconductedbeforePresidentDonaldTrumpapprovedtheOfficeoftheU.S.TradeRepresentative’s

recommendationsonsolartariffs.However,webelievethisdecisionwillhavelittleoverallimpactonourfindings.First,thefullimpactsofthesetariffsarenotyetknown—itispossiblethatsomecompaniesorcountrieswillbeabletoobtainexemptionsfromthetariffs,lesseningtheiroverallimpactonmodulecosts.Second,thetariffsareonlyineffectfortheyears2019through2022.Whiletheyarehighatthebeginning(30percent),theydeclineovertime.Becausethisanalysiswasconductedthrough2030,andbecausethereisrelativelylittledifferencebetweenthescenariosintheearlyyears,thetariffswouldlikelyonlyhaveamoderateimpactinafewearlyyearsofthestudy.


Figure20.AnnualelectricsystemexpenditureDistributedcasesavingsinLADWP,relativetoReferencecase

ThecostsinthetwoPolicycasesrampuptowardtheendofthestudytimeframeasLADWPfinalizesitspushto100percentrenewablegenerationineachhour.WhiletheUtilityScalecaseismoreexpensiveonanetpresentvaluethantheReferencecase,andwhiletheDistributedcaseislessexpensivefromatotalsystemcostperspective,therearesomecostbenefitsoftransitioningtoa100percentrenewablegrid.Forinstance,duringmosthoursoftheyear,theproductioncostinLADWPinthePolicycasesislowerthanduringthosesamehoursintheReferencecase.Asaresultofrunningonresourceswithmarginal,ifany,variablecosts,theDistributedcaseseesareductioninoverallproductioncosts.Infact,theoverallNPVofthedifferencebetweenthetwoscenariosisnearlyeven,withtheDistributedcaseslightlylessexpensivethantheReferencecaseoverthestudyperiod.

3.6. KeydifferencesbetweenPolicycases

OurtwoPolicycasesdifferintheirtreatmentofsolar.BothPolicycasesmodelfutureswithlargeamountsofsolargeneration.However,theUtilityScalecasefocusesonmeetingloadrequirementswithutilityscalesolarandadditionalgeothermalgeneration,whiletheDistributedcasefocusesonmeetingLADWP’sneedswithbehindthemeter,distributedgeneration.TheDistributedcasebuildsnearly6GWofsolarcapacity,withover4GWofdistributedsolarcapacity.TheUtilityScalecaseonlybuilds3.6GWofsolarcapacity,withthemajority—2.2GW—asutilityscale.

Importantly,theDistributedcaseisrepresentativeofafutureinwhichLADWPtakesadifferentapproachtosystemplanning.Thelevelofdistributedgenerationbuiltisonlypossibleifsystemplannersincreasethecapacitycreditreceivedbybehindthemetergenerationandrecognizethebenefitsassociatedwithlinkingdistributedgenerationandstoragefromagrid-operationsperspective.This


scenarioincorporatesalevelofdistributedsolarcapacitythatisconsistentwithatargetofcoveringthree-quartersofrooftopsintheLADWPserviceterritory.

The100percentrenewablescenariosdiscussedinthisreportrepresentonlytwopossibilitiesforLADWPtomoveawayentirelyfromtraditionalgeneratingresources.AllpotentialcleanenergyfuturesforLosAngelesinvolvedistinctopportunitiesandtradeoffs.Withinthisanalysis,forinstance,thecostsassociatedwithourutilityscalesolarcaseareborneoutdifferentlythanthecostsasaresultofthedistributedsolarcase.Withgreaterlevelsofutilityscalesolar,theoverallsystemcostsincrease,representativeofutilitiesbuildingandintegratingnew,largescalecapacity.Onthecontrary,higherlevelsofdistributedgenerationresultinlowersystemcosts,astheneedforcapacityanddistributionsystemupgradesareavoided,buthighercoststoindividualconsumers(notcalculatedinthisanalysis)whotakeontheresponsibilitytoinvestintheirownrenewablegenerationandstorage.

CONCLUSIONS

A100percentrenewablefutureispossible.WithpolicymakersinCaliforniaandtheLADWPconsideringlegislationtomandatethisambitioustrajectory,itistimeforsystemoperatorstoactivelybegintoanalyze100percentrenewablefutures.InthisanalysisoftwopotentialLADWPfutures,wefindthatitis,infact,possibleforLADWPtouseexclusivelyrenewableresourcestopoweritssystemineveryhouroftheyear.What’smore,achievingveryhighlevelsofrenewableintegrationinLADWPdoesnotrequireasubstantialdeparturefromtheReferencecasewithinthefirstseveralyearsofthestudy,allowingLADWPabrief,butnecessary,windowtoplanhowtobestoptimizeafuture100percentrenewablesystem.

Infact,theUtilityScalecasedoesnotrequiresubstantiallymorerenewablesthantheReferencecase.Instead,itrequiressmarteroperationofthesystembyleveragingstorage,demandresponse,andenergyefficiency.Likemanyother100percentrenewablestudies,thisisanillustrativestudy—itdemonstratestheabilityofthegridtoprovidegenerationtomeetdemandassumingafuturewithhighrelianceonnon-dispatchablegeneration.Thisstudyisnotmeanttobeadeep-diveintoallofthetechnicaloperationsofthegridunderthistypeofresourcemix.WhilethePolicyCasesdonotrequireasubstantialdeparturefromtherenewablecapacitybuildsoftheReferencecase,itdoesrequireanewapproachtosystemplanningandoperationfromLADWP.Fromasystemcostperspective,a100percentrenewablefutureforLADWPmaybepossibleatnoincrementalcosttotheReferencecase.

WeintendforthisanalysistosupportongoingplanningprocessesduringwhichanalysesbyLADWPandstakeholderscaninformandbuildoffeachother.ThisstudyservesasabenchmarkincomparingpotentialhighrenewablesfuturesforLosAngelesandacknowledgesthattherewillbetradeoffsamongstalloftheoptionsathand.Importantly,the100percentrenewablescenariosdiscussedinthisreportrepresentonlytwopossibilitiesforLADWPtomoveawayentirelyfromtraditionalgeneratingresources.


Withinthisanalysis,forinstance,thecostsassociatedwithascenariothatleansheavilyonutility-scalesolarareborneoutdifferentlythanthecostsresultingfromdistributedsolarscenario.Withgreaterlevelsofutilityscalesolar,theoverallsystemcostsincrease,representativeofutilitiesbuildingandintegratingnew,largescalecapacity.Onthecontrary,higherlevelsofdistributedgenerationresultinlowersystemcosts,astheneedforcapacityanddistributionsystemupgradesareavoided,buthighercoststoindividualconsumers,representativeoftheresponsibilitytoprocurecapacityshiftingfromtheutilitytothecustomer.NeitherofthePolicycasesincorporatesthecostsassociatedwithavoidingadversehealthimpactsandotherexternalitiesassociatedwithfossilfuelgeneration;thePolicycasesmayinfactbeevenmoreeconomicalincomparisontotheReferencecasethanthisstudyshows.

The100percentrenewablescenariosanalyzedinthisstudyarerepresentativeofonlytwoofthemanypotentialpathstowardsa100percentrenewablefuture.Anypathtakenwillrequireexplicitdecisionstobemadebypolicymakers,gridregulators,andutilitiesalike.Forinstance,otherpotentialscenariosmayleanmoreheavilyonstorageresources,allowforcompliancethroughout-of-regionpurchasesofcleangeneration,orrelyupononnascenttechnology,suchasfloatingoffshorewindturbines.Regardlessofthepathtaken,however,a100percentrenewablefutureispossible,thatitcanpotentiallybeachievedatnoincrementalcost,andLosAngelesneedstogetstartedrightawaytomeetitsgoal

SynapseEnergyEconomics,Inc. CleanEnergyforLosAngelesA1

APPENDIXA.THEENCOMPASSMODEL

Inthisanalysis,SynapseutilizedEnCompass(Version2.7),astate-of-the-artcapacityexpansionandproductioncostmodelproducedbyAnchorPowerSolutions.

EnCompassisasingle,fullyintegratedpowersystemplatformthatprovidesanenterprisesolutionforutility-scalegenerationplanningandoperationsanalysis.EnCompassisanoptimizationmodelthatcoversallfacetsofpowersystemplanning,including:

• Short-termschedulingincludingdetailedunitcommitmentandeconomicdispatch

• Mid-termenergybudgetinganalysisincludingmaintenanceschedulingandriskanalysis

• Long-termintegratedresourceplanningincludingcapitalprojectoptimizationandenvironmentalcompliance

• Marketpriceforecastingforenergy,ancillaryservices,capacity,andenvironmentalprograms

EnCompassprovidesunit-specific,detailedforecastsofthecomposition,operations,andcostsoftheregionalgenerationfleetgiventheassumptionsdescribedinAppendixB.SynapsepopulatedthemodelwithaWesternInterconnect-specificdataset,basedonCAISO’sTransmissionExpansionPlanningPolicyCommitteedataset,andmadeadjustmentstoimproveresolutionwithintheDWPregion.

SynapseusedEnCompasstooptimizethegenerationmixinDWPandCaliforniaandtoestimatethecostsofachangingenergysystemovertime.Becausethisstudyfocusesonannualgeneration,costs,andemissions,themodelwasrunin“partial”optimizationmodewithtypicalpeak/off-peakdaytemporalresolution.Theseparametersenabledfasterprocessingtimeattheexpenseofsomedetailattheunitoperationlevel.

MoreinformationonEnCompassisavailableatwww.anchor-power.com.

SynapseEnergyEconomics,Inc. CleanEnergyforLosAngelesB1

APPENDIXB.MODELINGINPUTASSUMPTIONS

ModelingBackground

Synapse’sanalysiscomparedaReferencecasetotwoPolicycasesbymodelingtwomainscenarios:

• Referencecase:Thisisabusiness-as-usualfutureinwhichnochangesaremadetocurrentpoliciesinCaliforniaoratthefederallevel.Inthisfuture,weassumerenewableandstoragetechnologycostscontinuetodecreaseatabaselinerateandthatutilitiesinCaliforniameettheirrequirementsforrenewableprocurementundertheRPSandGHGreductionsrequiredbyAB32andthe2016SB32.Weassumeastatewideelectricsector2030emissionsgoalof62thousandmetrictons(MMT),consistentwiththeupperboundoftheCaliforniaAirResourcesBoardScopingPlan.35

• Policycases:ThePolicycasesdifferfromtheReferencecaseinonekeyway:theyestablisharequirementforLADWPtomeet100percentofitselectricitysalesthroughrenewables(e.g.,wind,solar,andstorage)by2030.Inaddition,weexploretheuseofbatterystorage,energyefficiency,anddemandresponseresourcestohelpachievethisenergytransformation.

ModelingInputs

Electricitydemand

Themaincomponentofasalesforecastistheeconometricsalescomponent.Thisistheforecastforannualenergyconsumption,absentanyincrementalenergyefficiency.Itistypicallylinkedtofactorslikegrossdomesticproduct(GDP)growth,populationgrowth,andweather.InEnCompass(andinallotherelectricitydispatchmodels),annualsalesandpeakdemandaretreatedasaconstraint.Forthisanalysis,weassumedthateconometricelectricsalesforLADWPandtherestofCaliforniafollowtheprojectiondescribedintheFebruary2017editionoftheCaliforniaEnergyDemandUpdate(CEDU).36

Energyefficiency

Aftercalculatingthemainannualsalesforecast,itisnecessarytodevelopaprojectionforenergyefficiency.Becausesalesaretreatedasaconstraintbythemodel,theenergyefficiencyforecastmustbe

35“The2017ClimateChangeScopingPlanUpdate,”January20,2017,pp.42-43.Available

athttps://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/2030sp_pp_final.pdf36ReferredtoastheIEPR2016Update.Availableathttp://docketpublic.energy.ca.gov/PublicDocuments/16-IEPR-

05/TN215745_20170202T125433_FINAL_California_Energy_Demand_Updated_Forecast_20172027.pdf


hard-coded:wecannotgivethemodelacostforenergyefficiencyandallowittochoosetobuildit,likeitcanwithrenewablesorothertypesofresources.

Californiaisamongtheleadingstatesintermsofenergyefficiency:accordingtothe2016AmericanCouncilforanEnergy-EfficiencyEconomy(ACEEE)StateEnergyEfficiencyScorecard,ittiedforfirstalongwithMassachusetts.In2015,Californiaachievedannualincrementalsavingsof2percentperyear,onparwithVermont,buttrailingthesavingsachievedbyRhodeIslandandMassachusetts(whichreached3percentperyear).

Forthisanalysis,weassumetwoseparateenergyefficiencyforecasts:

1. OurBasecaseforecastisbasedontheenergyefficiencyforecastdescribedintheCEDU2017“MidDemandBaselineCase”(seeFigure21).Inthisforecast,LADWPandtherestofCaliforniaachievereasonablyhighlevelsofenergyefficiencyinthenear-term(e.g.,1.75to2.0percent),butfeaturelowerlevelsofsavings(e.g.,0.30percent)inlateryears.WeusethisenergyefficiencyforecastintheReferencecase.

2. OurHighEEcaseforecastassumesthatLADWPincreasesitsannualincrementallevelofenergyefficiencysavingsbeginningin2019by0.2percentperyear,untilalevelof3.0percentisreachedin2024.Itthensustainsthislevelofenergyefficiencythroughouttherestofthestudy.WeassumethatnochangesaremadetoenergyefficiencylevelsintherestofCalifornia.

Figure21.Forecasteddemandforelectricity,inclusiveofenergyefficiencyandelectricvehicles

Energyefficiencycosts

Recentstudiesonthecostofenergyefficiencyindicatethatenergysavingscanbeprocuredataverylowcostofsavedenergy.Whilecostsmayvarybasedongeography,sector(e.g.,residentialversus


industrial),thesizeoftheprogram,orthematurityoftheprogram,recentanalysesbySynapse,theACEEE,andtheLawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratory(LBNL)allindicatelevelizedcostsforutilitiesbelow$0.04perkWh.37Thisanalysisusesthe2017workpublishedbyLBNLinEnergyPolicy,whichconcludesthatthelevelizedcostofsavedenergyforutilitiesis2.3centsperkilowatthour(kWh).38

Demand-sidemanagement

Inadditiontopassiveenergyefficiencymeasures,wealsospecifyatrajectoryforactivedemand-sidemanagementmeasures.Customerscanbeincentivizedtoreduceloadinthehoursatwhichthesystemismostconstrained,vialowerratesorrebates.Suchresourcesaretypicallyonlycalleduponforasmallnumberofhoursperyear.OurmodeledscenariosfollowthedemandresponseassumptionsintheLADWP2016IRP,whichgrowsactivedemandresponseresourcesfrom55MWtodayto200MWin2020and506MWin2026.39

Electrification

Forthepurposesofthisanalysis,weassumeabaselineamountofincreasedelectrificationinallscenarios.The2016IEPRassumesthatby2025,LADWPwillfeatureabout600GWhofincreasedsalesfromelectricvehicles,andCaliforniaasawholefeatures2,100GWhofelectricvehicle-relatedsales.40ForLADWP,thisrepresentsanincreaseinsalesbyabout3percentin2025.

Naturalgaspriceforecast

OuranalysisreliesuponthedeliveredfuelpricefortheelectricpowersectorforecastsfromtheEnergyInformationAdministration’s(EIA)AnnualEnergyOutlook2017(seeFigure22).PricesatregionalhubsintheWestlargelyalltrackeachother,risingsteadilyovertimeafterabriefdropinthelasttwoyears.

37Moreinformationavailableathttp://www.synapse-energy.com/sites/default/files/COSE-EIA-861-Database-66-017.pdf.38Hoffman,I.,etal.2017.“EstimatingthecostofsavingelectricitythroughU.S.utilitycustomer-fundedenergyefficiency

programs.”EnergyPolicy.PublishedJanuary24,2017.39LADWP2016IRPpp.88.40Seehttp://docketpublic.energy.ca.gov/PublicDocuments/16-IEPR-

05/TN215504_20170123T111108_FINAL_CEDU2016_LADWP_Mid_Demand_Case.xlsandhttp://docketpublic.energy.ca.gov/PublicDocuments/16-IEPR-05/TN215506_20170123T111112_FINAL_CEDU2016_STATEWIDE_Mid_Demand_Case.xlsformoreinformation


Figure22.AEO2017naturalgaspriceforecastbyregion,Nominal$/MMBtu

Renewableresourcepotentialsandcosts

EvenintheReferencecase,CaliforniaandtheLADWPregionwillseesignificantincreasesinrenewablecapacityduringthestudyperiod.Currently,California’sRPSrequiresCaliforniautilities(includingLADWP)toprocure50percentoftheirelectricsalesfromrenewablesby2030.LADWPproposestoexceedthisstandardintheir2016IRP,reaching55percentin2030(seeFigure23).Undercurrentlawsandregulations,solarthermal,solarphotovoltaic,wind,biomass,geothermal,smallhydro,landfillgas,andothermiscellaneousresourcesareeligibletosellRECs,whichcanberetiredtomeetRPScompliance.UnderthecurrentRPSpolicy,renewablefacilitiesthatareeitherphysicallylocatedinCaliforniaorareabletosellelectricitydirectlytoCaliforniaareeligibletosellRECstoCaliforniautilities.Notably,our100percentrenewablescenariosdonotrelyuponpurchasingunbundledRECsfromotherregions.

UndertheEnCompassmodelingconstruct,themodelselectsthemostcost-effectiveresourcestobuildandmeettheRPSconstraint,basedonassumptionsweuseforresourcepotentialandresourcecosts.


Figure23.ModeledRPSrequirementsintheLADWPregion

Note:The“PolicycaseRPS”trajectoryisappliedinboththeUtilityScalecaseandtheDistributedcase.

InthePolicycases,weassumethataseparateadditionalRPSpolicyisestablishedintheLADWPloadregion.Underthisnewpolicy,LADWPisrequiredtomeet100percentofitselectricitydemandthroughrenewablesby2030.Otherimportantdistinctionsinclude:

• Temporalrequirement:ThisanalysisrequiresLADWPtoprocureelectricityfromrenewablesatalltimesoftheday,everyday.LADWPisrestrictedfrompurchasingelectricityfromnaturalgasgenerators(forexample)andprocuringenergy“offsets”inotherhours.

• Geographiceligibility:Inouranalysis,weassumethatrenewableresourceslocatedintheLADWPregion,elsewhereinCalifornia,ordirectlyconnectedtoCaliforniaareeligiblefortheLADWPRPS.

• Resourceeligibility:ThisanalysisismeanttoassessPolicycasesinwhichtheLADWPloadregion’selectricsectorisnon-emitting.Assuch,weonlyconsidernon-emitting,lowenvironmentalimpact,fully-commercialresourcesasbeingeligibleforcompliance.Inpractice,thisrestrictstheLADWPRPS-eligibleresourcesfornewlybuiltcapacityinLosAngelestosolarandwind.BiogasandbiomassresourcesarespecificallyprohibitedfrombeingeligibleforcomplianceintheLADWPRPS.


Renewableandstoragepotential

Forthisanalysis,werelyonrenewableresourcepotentialsasdescribedintheDecember2016versionoftheRESOLVEmodel.41AccordingtoRESOLVE,thereareabout102GWofincrementalrenewablesavailableinLosAngelesCountyand8,700GWCalifornia-wide.Thisisincomparisontothe20GWcurrentlyinstalledstatewide.NotethatCaliforniacurrentlyhasabout80GWofinstalledcapacityfromalltypesofresource,includingnuclear,coal,andnaturalgas.

Table1.Existinginstalledrenewablecapacityandpotentialincrementalrenewablecapacity(GW) 2015InstalledCapacity,

CaliforniaIncrementalresourcepotential,California

Incrementalresourcepotential,LACounty

Utility-scalePV 6 8,406 102Utility-scalesolarthermal 1 133 5DistributedPV 4 37 11Wind 5 157 0Geothermal 3 5 0Smallhydro 1 7 0

Today,LADWPhas1,275MWofpumpedhydrostorageattheCastaicfacility,plusabout12MWofsmallscalethermalandbatterystorage.InbothourReferencecaseandPolicycases,weinclude404MWofbatterystorageby2025,asplannedinthe2016IRP.42

Renewableandstoragecosts

WerelyonRESOLVEforprojectingcostsofrenewablesthroughthestudyperiod.43AccordingtotheRESOLVEmodelassumptions,in2018utility-scalesolarisestimatedtocost$46perMWh,distributedsolarisestimatedtocost$104/MWh,andwindisestimatedtocost$59perMWh.Notethatthesecostsareinclusiveofcurrentproductiontaxcreditsandinvestmenttaxcredits,whicharescheduledtodeclineoverthenextseveralyears.

StoragecostsarealsomodeledbasedonRESOLVEinputs,thelatestversionofwhichmodelsLi-ionbatterycapacityat$248perkWin2018,decliningto$166perkWby2030.44Figure24andFigure25

41TheRESOLVEmodelisaspreadsheetbasedcapacityexpansionmodelcurrentlybeingusedintheCaliforniaStateIntegrated

ResourcePlanprocess.RESOLVEisamoresimplifiedtoolthantheEnCompassmodelbutitusesanumberofsimilarinputs.Formoreinformation,seetheRESOLVEInputsandAssumptionsDocumentandScenarioToolathttp://www.cpuc.ca.gov/irp_proposal/

422016IRPpp.13143Formoreinformation,seeTable20at

http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/uploadedFiles/CPUCWebsite/Content/UtilitiesIndustries/Energy/EnergyPrograms/ElectPowerProcurementGeneration/LTPP/2017/RESOLVE_CPUC_IRP_Inputs_Assumptions_2017-05-15.pdf

44TheRESOLVEinputsarederivedfromLazard’sLevelizedCostofStorage2.0(2016),availableat:https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-storage-analysis-20/


comparethecostofapeakerinLazard’sLevelizedCostofEnergy11.0tothestoragecostassumptionsfromLazard’sLevelizedCostofStorage2.0.

Figure24.Levelizedcostofenergyofconventionalresources,Lazardversion11.0

Figure25.Levelizedcostofstorageresources,Lazardversion2.0

Unitadditions

AccordingtotheEIA’sForm860dataset,thereare1,650MWofknownunitadditionsthatarecurrentlyunderconstructionandexpectedtobeonlinebetween2017and2019(seeTable2).45

45Moreinformationavailableathttps://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia860m/.


Table2.Knownunitadditions(GW)

2017 2018 2019LosAngeles 79 - - Batteries 2 - -

OnshoreWindTurbine 2 - -

OtherWasteBiomass 33 - -

SolarPhotovoltaic 42 - -

California 837 674 134 Batteries 42 - 2 ConventionalHydroelectric 7 - - LandfillGas 5 - - NaturalGasFiredCombinedCycle - 672 - NaturalGasFiredCombustionTurbine 7 - - OnshoreWindTurbine 187 - 131 OtherWasteBiomass 37 2 - SolarPhotovoltaic 553 - -

Unitretirements

ThesameEIAdatasetshowsusthatbetween2017and2020,over5,500MWhasbeenannouncedtoberetiredinCalifornia(seeTable3).Nearlyalloftheseretirementsareoldnaturalgas-firedsteamturbineslocatedinLosAngelesCounty.ThisincludestheScattergood1and2repoweringprojects.InaJune6BoardofWaterandPowerCommissionerspresentation,LADWPnotedthatallrepoweringprojects,includingthese,werebeingreassessed.46Asthatassessmentwillnotbecompletedbeforethecompletionofthisstudy,ourplanwouldbetoincludetheScattergood,Haynes,andHarborrepoweringsasspecifiedintheLADWP2016IRPinourReferencecase.ThislistalsoincludesindependentpowerproducerslocatedinLosAngelesCounty—specificallytheAESAlamitosandAESRedondoBeachgasplants.InourPolicycases,wedonotincludetherepoweringofnaturalgasunits;insteadretiringtheseunitsby2030.

46Moreinformationavailableathttp://www.scpr.org/news/2017/06/06/72616/ladwp-puts-a-hold-on-new-power-plants-to-

consider/


Table3.Knownunitretirements(GW)

2017 2018 2019 2020

LosAngeles - - 1,302 2,264 NaturalGasSteamTurbine - - 1,302 2,263 OtherWasteBiomass - - - 1California 1,074 17 1,533 2,926 ConventionalHydroelectric 0 0 4 0 NaturalGasFiredCombustionTurbine 90 0 0 0 NaturalGasInternalCombustionEngine 0 0 8 8 NaturalGasSteamTurbine 982 0 1,520 2,917 OnshoreWindTurbine 0 17 0 0 OtherWasteBiomass 3 0 0 1

Additionalgasretirements

Inlinewitha100percentrenewablefuture,LADWPwillbeforcedtoretireallexistingnaturalgasandlandfillgasunitsoperatingintheirserviceterritory.Ratherthanretirethemallin2030,however,weexogenouslyforcetheirretirementsearlierinthestudyperiod,betterallowingLADWPtoramptowardstheoperationalconstraintsassociatedwitha100percentrenewablefuture.