claudia pahl-wostl, catharien terwisscha van scheltinga, fons jaspers train the trainers newater/ wp...

Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Fons Jaspers

Train the Trainers NeWater/ WP 4.3/ CS Elbe

Integrated Assessment and Waterwisefor Adaptive Management

Potsdam 3 & 4 May 2007


Organisation of the training Valentina Krysanova

Adaptive management & integrated assessment Catharien Terwisscha van

Scheltinga

NeWaterwise model its use (1) and the making of (2) Paul van

Walsum

IIntroductions


We are we good at

Name Job Training


Evaluation

Expectations now Perception afterwards

Knowledge

Skills

Attitude


Learning objectives of the training

The learning objectives of the training are:(after the training the particpants can)

- recognize and understand the changes taking place in their water management system;

- apply the adaptive management cycle for a given case;

- make their organisation more adaptive;

- teach this all to their stakeholders!


Increasing pressure on the

traditional water management system


Challenges for water managementChallenges for water management

Global ChangeClimate change, Population growth, Economic growth

They may influence (in)direct demand and supply of water

Uncertainty

Uncertainty of events and responses, tools & observations, interpretations, new insights & effect of political measurements

ComplexityLinks with other sectors, with water users up- and down stream, with institutions, at various scales and time frames


Traditional Water Management

Water Management was focused on the solution of local hydrological problems.

Dikes to protect towns against floods More irrigation for more food/ cash crops Reservoirs for more irrigation water Drainage to evacuate saline water and sewerage Legislation for eutrophication of lakes and coastal seas.

Are solutions sufficient sustainable?


Causes behind the problems

PSIR helps to understand the issues:

Pressure (drivers like population pressure)

State (cultivation of slopes)

Impact (run off, floods)

Reaction (dikes to protect towns)

Issues are complex and

ask for an integrated approach


1. List your experience on changes in command, demand and supply of water

2. List the responses of the water system to these changes

1. Changes

you observed

2. Responses

you observed

3. What made it typical Adaptive Management

Share your experiences on AM


Sustainable Water ManagementSustainable Water Management

Sustainable management of water resources cannot be realized unless current water management regimes undergo a transition towards more adaptive water management.

To cope with uncertainties, adaptive management is needed as a systematic process for improving management policies and practices by learning from the outcomes of implemented management strategies.

A key element is the active involvement of stakeholders in the process of developing, implementing and monitoring of river basin management plans.


IWRMIWRM

IWRM is ‘a process which promotes the co-ordinated development and management of water, land and related resources in order to maximise the resultant economic and social welfare in an equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems (GWP)

Jonch-Clausen, 2004, Figure 1


Integrated Water Resources Management CycleIntegrated Water Resources Management Cycle


NeWater works in Case StudiesNeWater works in Case Studies


NeWater develops Knowledge base NeWater develops Knowledge base

Analyse current regime and needs for change (vulnerability Analyse current regime and needs for change (vulnerability

assessment, adaptive capacity, performance indicators to assessment, adaptive capacity, performance indicators to

compare current and target states)compare current and target states)

Identify barriers for changeIdentify barriers for change

Analyse process of transition Analyse process of transition

Identify and implement actions at different levelsIdentify and implement actions at different levels

Methodological development Methodological development

and integrationand integration

Participatory process Participatory process of analysis and of analysis and

assessment in casesassessment in cases


Adaptive ManagementAdaptive Management

Adaptive Management

is a systematic process to improve management approaches by

learning from the consequences from implemented

management strategies,

acknowledges explicitly uncertainties and complexity of the

systems to be managed,

has as one goal to increase the adaptive capacity of the

management regime.


Adaptive Management characteristicsAdaptive Management characteristics

“Adaptive management is learning to manage by managing to learn” (Bormann et al, 1993 )

Walters (1986): scientific understanding will come from the experience of management as an ongoing, adaptive, and experimental process, rather than through basic research or the development of ecological theory.


Uncertainties in AMUncertainties in AM

The AM cycle also considers uncertainties like:

Ambiguity/ interpretation

Complexity of the system to be managed

New insights about system behaviour

Changes in environmental and/or in socio-economic conditions


Social Learning is needed both for Social Learning is needed both for

implementing and sustaining implementing and sustaining

integrated and adaptive water integrated and adaptive water

management regimesmanagement regimes


What is Social Learning?What is Social Learning?

Social learning refers to the capacity of all stakeholders to Social learning refers to the capacity of all stakeholders to deal with different interests and points of view (does not imply deal with different interests and points of view (does not imply consensus) and to collectively manage the resources in a consensus) and to collectively manage the resources in a sustainable way.sustainable way.

Important are issues such as the development of a shared Important are issues such as the development of a shared problem definition and shared understanding of the physical problem definition and shared understanding of the physical system at stake, perception issues and mental frames, system at stake, perception issues and mental frames, negotiation processes and strategies, and the quality of negotiation processes and strategies, and the quality of communication. communication.


Social Learning ConceptSocial Learning Concept

Context

Governance structure Natural environment

,

Process

Socialinvolvement

Contentmanagement

Relational Practices

Outcomes

Relational qualities Technical qualities

Feedback

Context


,

Context


,

Process

Socialinvolvement

Contentmanagement


Outcomes


Outcomes


Feedback

Role of ICT Role of ICT ToolsTools

Problem Framing

Boundary Management

Ground rules

Leadership


Scenario Planning,Generation of HypothesesExperimental Approaches

Robust Action

Hypothesis Testing Learning

Integrated Water Resources Management CycleIntegrated Water Resources Management Cycle

GWP – Technical Report No10

Include Uncertainties & Social learning!

Stakeholders understand and appreciate their positions

Stakeholders realize own tasks they agreed upon


Examples for Management Examples for Management which is not/well adaptive which is not/well adaptive

Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Vulnerability Training Seminar, 06.-08.10. 2005

New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty

Fläche f. LogoNew Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty

Urban Water Supply – Swiss CaseUrban Water Supply – Swiss Case

Situation Supply capacity meet max. daily demand Drought condition 1976 -> increase capacity Demand dropped. Unflexible strategy

Alternative integrated management strategies

Negotiated social: Flexible regimes of coordinating supply management with demand management. Pricing -> average demand. Information campaigns -> peak demand.

0

190 0 1920 1940 1960 19 80 2000

Year

20

40

60

80

001

Cap

acit

y an

d D

eman

d (

rela

tive

)

PeakDemand

SupplyCapacity

AverageDemand


Change of Management paradigm:Change of Management paradigm:

Currently dominatingCurrently dominating

„„Controlling water“Controlling water“

New approachNew approach

„„Living with water“Living with water“

Risks are quantified and optimal Risks are quantified and optimal technical solutions are technical solutions are implemented implemented

Participatory risk evaluation Participatory risk evaluation and negotiation about and negotiation about integrated solutions integrated solutions

Large-scale infrastructure Large-scale infrastructure (reservoirs, dams)(reservoirs, dams)

Multi-functional landscape with Multi-functional landscape with flooding areasflooding areas

Example Flood ManagementExample Flood Management


Plans for ChangePlans for Change


Road

River

Rhone – Switzerland

Athabasca - Canada


Current state with regulated and controlled rivers

Adaptive management with a multi-functional dynamic

landscape

Paradigm of water management

Management as control - Technology driven. Risk can be quantified and optimal strategies can be chosen. Zero-sum-games in closed decision space

Implementation of controllable and predictable technical infrastructure (reservoirs, dams) based on fixed regulations for acceptable risk-thresholds

Adaptive and integrated water management. “Living with water”. Acceptable decisions are negotiated.Search for win-win solutions and added benefits.

Design of multi-functional landscape with increased adaptive capacity of the system. Designed risk dialogue and cascade of adaptation measures to live with extremes.

Comparison current - potential future stateComparison current - potential future state


Current state with regulated and controlled rivers

Adaptive management in multi-functional dynamic landscape

Stakeholder groups and their roles and perceptions

Authorities as regulators in highly regulated environment

Engineers who construct and operate dams, reservoirs and levees

House owners living in floodplains without even knowing

Environmental protection groups fighting for floodplain restoration

Agriculture using land in vicinity of rivers

…………..

Authorities as contributors to an adaptive management process with shared responsibilities

Neutral third parties act as facilitators of decision making process

Engineers with skills in systems design cooperating with ecologists and social scientists

House owners with property in floodplain at higher risk of being flooded – loss of value

Tourism industry and tourists using the floodplains for recreation

…………...

Comparison current - potential future stateComparison current - potential future state


Command-Control Regime

Transition Integrated, Adaptive Regime

Governance Centralized, hierarchical, little stakeholder participation

Polycentric, horizontal, broad stakeholder participation

Sectoral Integration

Sectors separated - policy conflicts & chronic problems

HOW? Cross-sectoral policy integration – early problem identification

Scale of Analysis and

Operation

Transboundary problems emerge when sub-basins are exclusive scale of analysis and management

WHO? Transboundary issues addressed by multiple scales of analysis and management

Information Management

Fragmented understanding by gaps & lack of integration of proprietary information

WHY?

Comprehensive understanding by open, shared information

Infrastructure Large, central infrastructure, single sources of design

Decentralized, appropriate scale, , diverse design

Finances and Risk

Financial resources concentrated in structural protection (sunk costs)

Financial resources diversified - broad set of private and public financial instruments

Idealtypical RepresentationIdealtypical Representation


1. List your experience on changes in command, demand and supply of water

2. List the responses of the water system to these changes

1. Changes

you observed

2. Responses

you observed

3. What made it typical Adaptive Management

already already

already already

already already

Share your experiences on AM


MTF Action Arena


Learning and Learning and experimentation experimentation

processprocessin parallelin parallel

to “regular” to “regular” managementmanagement


How to stimulate ‘Transition to AM’

For discussion:

1. Can you create a shadow network within or outside your organisation?

2. Where would you put your ‘open windows’ on?


Themes and Tools

Place and Function

Integrated assessment and NeWaterwise

in the adaptive management


Context


,

Process

Socialinvolvement

Contentmanagement


Outcomes


Feedback

Context


,

Context


,

Process

Socialinvolvement

Contentmanagement


Outcomes


Outcomes


Feedback

RoleRole of I CT of I CT ToolsTools

e.g.

Problem Framing

BoundaryManagement

Ground rules

Context


,

Process

Socialinvolvement

Contentmanagement


Outcomes


Feedback

Context


,

Context


,

Process

Socialinvolvement

Contentmanagement


Outcomes


Outcomes


Feedback


e.g.

Problem Framing

BoundaryManagement

Ground rules



e.g.

Problem Framing

BoundaryManagement

Ground rules

e.g.

Problem Framing

BoundaryManagement

Ground rules

Two perspectives on policy development and implementation:Left – the different steps in an iterative cycle of policy development and implementation in adaptive management. Right – the different elements of processes of social learning and institutional change

Tools to support adaptive management and learning


Characteristics of different steps of policy cycle and Characteristics of different steps of policy cycle and requirements for tools to support these stepsrequirements for tools to support these steps

Step in policy process Tools to support this step

All steps should be participatory (0,1,2,3,4) Tools supporting participation

In the definition of the problem different perspectives need to be taken into account in a participatory process (0).

Framing analysis, cognitive mapping, group model building, Role playing games

The design of policies should include scenario analyses to identify key uncertainties and to find strategies that perform well under different possible but initially uncertain future developments rather than searching for a strategy that performs optimal under very specific conditions (e.g. climate) but performs poorly if these conditions are not met (1).

Participatory scenario development

Exploratory modelling

Portfolio analysis

Uncertainty Analysis

Policies must be understood as semi-open experiments that require a careful evaluation of potential positive or negative feedback mechanisms by planning and implementing other related policies (1,2).

Exploratory Modelling

Up-and Down Scaling


Characteristics of different steps of policy cycle and Characteristics of different steps of policy cycle and

requirements for tools to support these stepsrequirements for tools to support these steps

Step in policy process Tools to support this step

Decisions should be evaluated by the costs of reversing them. Large-scale infrastructure or rigid regulatory frameworks increase costs of change. But costs may also be related to a loss of trust and credibility if uncertainties and the possible need for changes are not addressed by the competent authority during policy development (3).

DSS

Economic analyses

Quantification of social capital

Indicators for adaptive capacity

Scenario analysis

The design of monitoring programmes should include processes to become aware of undesirable developments at an early stage. This might imply different kinds of knowledge including community based monitoring systems (3).

Monitoring systems

Participatory assessments

The policy cycle must include support for institutional settings where actors assess the performance of management strategies and implement change if needed (4).

Institutional diagnosis and design

Performance indicators

Participatory assessment

A continuous re-planning and re-programming based on the results of monitoring and evaluation should be institutionalised (4).

Institutional diagnosis and design

Policy Exercises


Integrated assessment theme

Integrated assessment supports:

the various aspects

The links between them

the uncertainty


Waterwise tool

Waterwise is an interface,….

Waterwise links land use with water quality & quantity

Waterwise can be used for integrated assessment

Waterwise can be used for integrated planning

Waterwise is interactive and participatory?


THE END


Evaluation

Expectations Perception

Knowledge already

Skills already

Attitude already


Topics Topics

Concepts of IWRM (Integrated Water Resources Management) and AM (Adaptive Management)

Water management regimes


NeWater

New approaches to adaptive water management under uncertaintyNew approaches to adaptive water management under uncertainty

Transdisciplinary Research Project: FP6 EUTransdisciplinary Research Project: FP6 EU

January 2005 – December 2008January 2005 – December 2008

Funded with 12 Mio Euro from the EUFunded with 12 Mio Euro from the EU

35 project partners 35 project partners

www.newater.infowww.newater.info


NeWater in the case study areasNeWater in the case study areas

To develop a conceptual framework for research and adaptive management of river basins that integrates natural science, engineering and social science concepts and methodologies.

To analyse and classify major sources of uncertainty in IWRM and their implications for management.

To analyse past, present and future vulnerability and adaptive capacity of river basins and key factors of influence.

To develop tools to analyse different management regimes and manage the transition to adaptive management tailored to the institutional, cultural, environmental, technological settings of river basins.


NeWater ProductsNeWater Products

Conceptual framework for understanding water systems and management regimes (components, dynamics)

Methodology to analyse and assess vulnerability, adaptive capacity, management strategies

Conceptual framework for understanding the transition to adaptive management regimes (interdependence of factors, trajectories)

Methodology for the participatory assessment and implementation of transformation processes and evaluation of progress


Steps in Policy CycleSteps in Policy Cycle

In problem definition take into In problem definition take into account different perspectives in account different perspectives in participatory process.participatory process.

Scenario analysis in design of Scenario analysis in design of policies - strategies that perform well policies - strategies that perform well under different possible future under different possible future developmentsdevelopments

Decisions should be evaluated by Decisions should be evaluated by the costs of reversing them. the costs of reversing them.

Monitoring programmes should include different kinds of knowledge Monitoring programmes should include different kinds of knowledge

Institutional settings needed where actors assess the performance of Institutional settings needed where actors assess the performance of management strategies and implement change in transparent fashionmanagement strategies and implement change in transparent fashion


Requirements for Regime to be AdaptiveRequirements for Regime to be Adaptive

New information must be available and/or consciously collected (e.g. indicators of performance or for change) and monitored over appropriate time scales

The actors in management system must be able to process information and draw meaningful conclusions. This can be best achieved if the learning process unites actors in all phases of assessment, policy implementation and monitoring.

Change must be possible and must be implemented in ways that are open and understandable to all actors. It must be clear as to who decides how and when to change management practices, based on which evidence and why.


Prediction, Control RegimePrediction, Control Regime Integrated, Adaptive RegimeIntegrated, Adaptive Regime

Governance Centralized, hierarchical, narrow stakeholder participation

Polycentric, horizontal, broad stakeholder participation


Sectors separately analysed resulting in policy conflicts and emergent chronic problems

Cross-sectoral analysis identifies emergent problems and integrates policy implementation

Scale of Analysis and

Operation

Transboundary problems emerge when river sub-basins are the exclusive scale of analysis and management

Transboundary issues addressed by multiple scales of analysis and management

Information Management

Understanding fragmented by gaps and lack of integration of information sources that are proprietary

Comprehensive understanding achieved by open, shared information sources that fill gaps and facilitate integration

Infrastructure Massive, centralized infrastructure, single sources of design, power delivery

Appropriate scale, decentralized, diverse sources of design, power delivery

Finances and Risk

Financial resources concentrated in structural protection (sunk costs)

Financial resources diversified using a broad set of private and public financial instruments

Hypotheses on characteristics of adaptive regimesHypotheses on characteristics of adaptive regimes


ElementsElementsof of

TransitionTransition

Pred&Cont REGIME

Int & AdapREGIME

TRANSITION

Governance


Scale of AnalysisAnd Operation

InformationManagement

Infra-structure

FinancesAnd RIsk

WHO?WHO?WHY?WHY?


Hierarachical Levels

Perceptions Tools Actors Institutions

Context level Shaping Developing Grouping Creating

Network level Reframing Selecting Activating Reforming

Game level Convenanting Using Switching Arranging

Water Management Hierarchies Water Management Hierarchies for Adaptive Managementfor Adaptive Management

Steps towards practical guidanceSteps towards practical guidance

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