civitas plus evaluation of mobility and social inclusion dr laurie pickup

•CIVITAS PLUS

Evaluation of mobility and social inclusionDr Laurie Pickup

Regional Director for Europe

WYG Environment, Planning and transport

•Venue : Coimbra, Portugal

Date: 22nd/23° March 2012

The scope of this session

1. The nature of mobility and social disadvantage – defining the scope of our evaluation?

2. Setting out your evaluation - the baseline expectations, objectives, target groups, success criteria

3. Understanding the mobility behaviour of different social groups and attitudes – what are the key variables to evaluate?

4. Measuring and analysing mobility and inclusion situations and response to change - Qualitative assessment - Quantitative surveys

5. Conclusions

Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

Part 1

The nature of mobility and social disadvantage –

defining the scope of our evaluation?


Mobility is Freedom

One of the strongest freedoms we possess


Mobility is not just a transport phenomenon

Spatial/temporal mobility - horizontal

Social mobility - vertical

(Virtual mobility)


Ability - Physical access to transport facilities and services in terms of vehicle and system design, waiting and interchange facilities and information services;

Opportunity - Spatial and temporal distribution of transport services and their connectivity with key activities;

Affordability - cost of transport services and its relation to incomes;

Barriers to mobility 1/2


Barriers to mobility 2/2

Cognitive and psychological factors - such as ability of users to understand and navigate the system, perceptions of personal safety and fear of crime;

Cultural and social factors - regarding acceptability of the services which are provided, including safety, comfort but also attitudes and social norms.


Social Exclusion: What are we actually measuring?

The concept of ‘social exclusion’ is contested, and

has multiple meanings. These meanings are being continually redefined over

time and have different policy implications.

(World Health Organisation review 2008)


Social exclusion is a myth?

‘’Exclusion” is not a concept rooted in the social sciences, but an empty box given by the French state to the social sciences in the late 1980s as a subject to study… The empty box has since been filled with a huge number of pages, treatises and pictures, varying degrees academic, popular, original and valuable’. (Murard, 2002)

‘The excluded made up one tenth of the French population: the mentally and the physically handicapped, suicidal people, aged invalids, abused children, drug addicts, delinquents, single parents, multi-problem households, marginal, asocial persons, and other social misfits’ (Lenoir)


Definition of social exclusion

‘A shorthand for what can happen when people or areas suffer from a combination of linked problems such as unemployment, poor skills, low incomes, poor housing, high crime environments, bad health and family breakdown’(UK, Social Exclusion Unit, 1997)

So what are we evaluating?


Parameters of mobility disadvantage

Frailty

Dependency (young and very old)

Disability (physical, sensory, learning capacity)

Low income

Gender role

Ethnicity

In most cases of exclusion, these aspects arise in combination


Children Young people Older people Disabled people

Personal Need to be escorted or driven

Semi-independent but with some restrictions

Very mixed picture in terms of abilities.Can be frail and confused in later life

Can be frail and may experienceMobility and cognitive difficulties

GeographicUrban/ Peripheral/ Rural

Greater exposure to traffic in urban areas

More excluded from activities in rural areas

Problem of retirees moving to remote locations.Longer term resident of social housing estates.

More likely to be located in urban centres.

Table of mobility disadvantage


Part 2

Setting out your evaluation - the baseline expectations, objectives, target groups, success

criteria


What is the focus of your evaluation?

A specific initiative dedicated to addressing mobility and exclusion/inclusion issues (e.g. Mobility and poverty in Liverpool)

An initiative primarily with a sustainable mobility focus – but which may have social impacts (e.g Mobility policy in Perugia)

An initiative where the social dimension of the issue is to be evaluated, but not specifically for its inclusion components (Most CIVITAS CITIES)


LIVERPOOL – October 1986

Study of impact of bus privatisation on the poor

Bus fare increase of 300% on privatisation

The start of ‘Community links’

Followed by ‘Travel safe’

Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012Coimbra, 23/24 March, 2012

Birmingham - 2012


Evaluation life-cycle

What stage of the process are you addressing?

Identification of needs and requirements of marginalised groups

Identification of behavioural responses to a change in provision for marginalised groups

Both


An example evaluation life cycle

Systematically assess the accessibility needs; Generate accessibility strategies that are fully inclusive to all

social groups, based on both state of the art experience and local needs;

Generate individual measurement options that integrate to meet the strategy objectives;

Conduct pre-implementation assessment of options on the benefits to different social groups, including economic assessment;

Generate a chosen strategy; Implementation guidelines; Scheme monitoring and quality evaluation (social and

economic evaluation, but also mobility efficiency and sustainability criteria);

Feedback and strategy revision, input to standards and protocols; and

Reporting and intelligence sharing.


Defining your target group(s)

Mobility exclusion among:

- specific age groups or gender e.g. Elderly/frail

- income groups e.g poverty definitions

- specific personal mobility disadvantaged groups e.g sensory impaired people

- poor access to specific activities (e.g employment)

- overall mobility in specific types of regions (city centres, peripheral suburbs, rural areas)


Taking a cross sector approach

Social exclusion is a cross-sector issue about restricted life-style

The evaluation has to include this perspective

In 1998, the Government’s Social Exclusion Unit found that mobility services in the UK covered the decisions of 11 ministries.

Assess the link between mobility policy and social policy (including employment etc.)

Work with other sectors in the evaluation

The best solution may not be a transport one


What indicators will you measure?

Hard indicators to measure needs and/or impacts (quantitative)

Soft indicators to measure needs and/or impacts (qualitative)

Only mobility indicators?

Indicators of social inclusion?

What level of aggregation are you addressing?

What indicators will define success?


Indicators (1)

Mobility indicators

Use the wide interpretation of accessibility

Accessibility models of varying complexity

Reviews of accessibility indicators

- increased number of activity opportunities (e.g. Jobs)

- increased number of public transport services (routes, frequency)

- increased patronage of public transport services by the target group

- increased satisfaction scores with access to different facilities


Inclusion indicators

National Action Plans11 primary indicators, 3 secondary

indicators and 11 context indicators; these are known as the streamlined indicators

ExamplesPrimary - Early school leavers not in

education or training, total Secondary - Persons with low educational

attainment Aged 25-64 Context - Self-reported limitations in daily

activities by income quintiles (Eurostat)


A simple approach to planning your evaluation

4 dimensions:Target group(s) – e.g. Young unemployedType of measure – e.g.

- Policy: Achieving equal access to employment

- Strategy: Improve access to job interviews

- Method: Ticket subsidyType of disadvantage - e.g. Low income,

restricted residential mobilityType of mobility – e.g. public transport

modes


Part 3

Understanding mobility behaviour and

attitudes as part of lifestyle – what are the

key variables?


“To change travel behaviour, you first

have to fully understand what motivates it”


Transport Planning

Follow-the-leader model / optimal velocity model : Newell

2*

0

),(1

)(

s

vvs

v

va

dt

tdv

; relaxation time,

; Optimal velocity function

Intelligent driver model : Treiber et al. (PRE 2000)

; headway

)())((')( tvtdv

dt

tdv e

)()()( 1 txtxtd

cce dddvdv tanh)tanh()2/()(' 0

relative velocity


Time and Cost

Cost to driver made up of time, distance and other costs (such as tolls)

Cost = (A x t) + (60 x B x d) + (C x p) whereA = time coefficientst = travel time in minutesB = distance coefficient in minutes per miled = link length in milesC = toll coefficient in minutes per monetary costp = price of the toll in monetary cost units


Disaggregated Models

Could you put a value on a person’s time?

Are travel decisions simply a matter of trading

time and cost?

the travel decisions of people were in fact

much more complex

disaggregating models even further

into more varied types of household,

and personal/household

characteristics


Disadvantaged Groups

growing mobility problems of the poor, of

women in traditional households, of the

disabled, of children and of the old and frail

Policies began to greatly emphasize the need

to encourage public transport use

car pooling schemes emerged


Stated Preferences- Imposed choices?


Time-geographic/activity approaches

• the chances to travel are dictated by the periods of time and the spatial opportunities available

• Emphasis on ‘accessibility’ rather than ‘mobility’

• policies should be targeted at travel reduction and access improvement


Life-cycle and habit

• travel patterns showed similarities within household types at different life-cycle stages

• ‘Life shocks’ experience

• Short term travel behaviour is dominated by habit

• the actual numbers of trips have not changed greatly over the years

• the distances people travel changed


Realistic Choices

• one third of households’ trips could not be changed for various reasons

• ‘realistic choice theory’

• ‘individualised marketing’

• ‘Personalised Travel Planning’


Evaluating travel behaviour

• people make travel decisions based on time and cost

• travel behaviour is influenced by habitual behaviour

• providing information and support to produce the changes in behaviour

• expenditure on travel remains stable except in lower income households

• More focus on mobility mind-sets


Part 4

Measuring impacts and understanding why

they occurred: impact and process evaluation


Measurement methods

Qualitative research

Quantitative research

- Non-statistical surveys

- Statistical surveys of samples to predict population parameters

- Sample selection (random/non-random)

- Survey type

- Statistical error and sample disaggregation

Analysis

- Single variable, bi-variate, multi-variate


Qualitative evaluation methods (1)

To understand the types of issues arising and the nature of processes and change

Good for social exclusion/inclusion evaluation

Small samples, semi-structured using topic guides, recording, skilled moderator

Focus groups

One to one interviews

Use of mentoring intermediaries for ‘hard to reach groups’


Qualitative research (2)

Qualitative analysis

Record and transcribe the interviews word for word (ensure good microphone positioning)

Unless intermediaries are necessary, try to interview yourself

Analyse ranges and avoid numbers.

Quote ranges of opinions and arguments

Use the results for design of quantitative survey


Survey objectives (1)

• Identify features of (and changes to) behaviour and attitudes - in the ‘population’ - in a statistical sense – through measuring the ‘variables’ we define.

• Qualitative research and quantitative surveys

• Identify through variable measurement, the factors that shape attitudes – how this relates to behaviour patterns

• Importance – satisfaction – expectations – prejudice

- measurement of the ‘scale’ of the variable

- measurement of the relative imoportance or ‘ranking’ between variables

Southampton (UK), 20/03/2009


Survey approaches

• Randomly sample ‘a defined population’

• Survey the sample in the ‘change’ area and in potential ‘transfer’ sites to infer results

• Use of ‘experimental and control samples’

• Single random sample surveys at a point in time (retrospective – e.g short term after survey)

• Repeat surveys of random samples from the same population (Before and after, periodic monitoring)

• Repeat interviews with the same sample subjects (Panels)


Statistical error – designing your sample size

2000

22

1899

1196.1

yxyx


Percentile error of sample percentages

Female

18-29

30-39

40-49

50-60

over 60

Male

18-29

30-39

40-49

50-60

over 60

0,52650,4735 M

F

Ex-post car Driver Survey

Sample 2000

Survey methods

Household surveys

Doorstep surveys

In-street/at stop/roadside/on vehicle surveys

Hall tests

Postal surveys

Telephone surveys

Internet surveys


Household surveys (1)

• Pre-arranged interviews (initial screening)

• All household members? (Use of incentives)

• Interviewer administered – 30 to 40 minutes

• Fully structured questionnaire? (show cards)

• Possible use of travel/activity diaries

• Piloting essential

• Interviewer training and monitoring important

• Random sampling – assess non-response bias

• Expensive


Household surveys (2)

• Achieve a full picture of household mobility

• A picture of trip generation and distribution by

mode/ time of day/ day of week etc.

• The attitudes of household members to their

mobility issues

• The primary variables of the mode choices of

household members


Doorstep surveys

• Shorter interviews – maximum 10 minutes

• Screening for target group

• Only one person (spokesperson) from the

household

• Diaries are sometimes left for collection/posting

• Careful piloting and interviewer training

• Structured questionnaires (show cards)

• Random address/walk /random person (repeat

visits – sampling with/without replacement)

• Assess pattern of non-response


In-street/at stop/roadside/in vehicle surveys

• Random sampling at chosen/random sampling points/ passing vehicles/ on PT vehicles (specify the population to be sampled)

• Possible screening questions for target groups

• Interview individuals/maximum 4/5 minutes

• 10 key questions – design well to avoid uncompleted forms



• Common use of automatic data recorders

• Assess pattern of non-response

• Less cost


Hall tests

• Random sampling at chosen sampling points (specify the population to be sampled)

• Usual in-street screening questions for certain target groups

• Respondents invited into a ‘hall’ to complete a more detailed questionnaire.

• Halls provide the opportunity to show plans, demonstrations, stated preference exercises etc.



• Possible use of automatic data recorders or computers

• Assess pattern of refusals to attend the hall test


Telephone surveys

• Specialist Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing sysems (CATI)

• Structured questionnaire (piloted)

• Screening questions for certain target groups?

• Telephone panel surveys

• Low respondent tolerance with telephone interviewing

• Only useful for short interviews/well defined issue

• Possible bias in sampling

• Used as an initial screening stage for household interviews

• Used for ‘follow-up’ interviews

• Less cost


Postal/self-completion surveys

• Lower cost

• Structured, short, simple questionnaire

• Large differences in response rates across

Europe

• Bias in sampling (check non-response by postal

area?)

• Generally not reliable for mobility information


Internet surveys

• Lower cost

• Structured questionnaire

• Possibility for obtaining qualitative

information – chats

• More tolerance than for telephone

surveys

• Self-selecting sample or pre-selection


Target Groups (1) – defining variables

• Mobility categories

- car ownership/licence holding/access to use (driver and passenger)

- public transport (service level available/ level of use)

- cycle ownership and use

- walk trip frequency/ length etc.

- mobility impairment (physical, sensory, learning capacity)

- realistic mode choice groups etc.

- perception of balance of mode use

- ‘I consider myself mainly as.....’


Target Groups (2)

• Socio-economic categories

- Age and gender

- Occupational group

- Individual/household income

- Educational attainment

- Ethnic origin

- Household structure


Target Groups (3)

• Traveller categories

- Commuters

- Business travellers

- Tourists

- Students

• Personality

- Use of psychological variables

- Control theory

- Personal construct theory


What questions (1)?

Questionnaires

• Printed (administered

self-completion)

• Data recorders

• Topic guides

Types of questions

• Closed questn.

• Open questns.

• Single responses

• Choices – SP

Quality/data protection standards


What questions (2)?

• Ranking

- orders

- groups

- allocation of points

• Scales

- size of the scale

- middle scale?

• Defining frequency categories

• Multiple response questions

• Do not know/DNA


The European Dimension

• Common definition of behavioural

indicators

• Common survey designs

• Common types of surveys

• Common definitions of target groups

• Minimum standard errors for analysis and

reporting (95% confidence intervals)

Southampton (UK), 20/03/2009


The scope of this session

1. The nature of mobility and social disadvantage – defining the scope of our evaluation?

2. Setting out your evaluation - the baseline expectations, objectives, target groups, success criteria

3. Understanding the mobility behaviour of different social groups and attitudes – what are the key variables to evaluate?

4. Measuring and analysing mobility and inclusion situations and response to change - Qualitative assessment - Quantitative surveys



Thank you

[email protected]

civitas plus evaluation of mobility and social inclusion dr laurie pickup

Documents

social factors

social disadvantage

social sciences

evaluation of mobility

social norms

concept of social exclusion

social exclusion unit

analysing mobility