civil society in poland case study
DESCRIPTION
CIVIL SOCIETY IN POLAND Case study. Prepared for international conference The Logic of Civil Society in New Democracies: East Asia and East Europe. Taipei, June 5-7. Politics. Party in power always loses elections. 30. Unemployment rate. Annual GDP growth. 20. 10. 0. -10. -20. ‘89. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Attitude to European Union in Poland: Enthusiastic with Some Reservations
1
CIVIL SOCIETY IN POLAND Case study
Prepared for international conferenceThe Logic of Civil Society in New Democracies:
East Asia and East Europe
Taipei, June 5-7
2
Politics
Parl. term Government coalition
IX 1989 – XI 1991 (semi-free)Solidarity with Communist and Communist-allied ministers
XII 1991 – X 1993 post-Solidarity right wing
XI 1993 – X 1997 post-communist left wing
XI 1997 – X 2001 right wing
XI 2001 – X 2005 left wing
• Party in power always loses elections
3
Economic conditions
1989-1992 Transformation shock 1993-2000 Sustained growth 2001-2002 Crisis 2003-2008 Pre- and post-EU accession boom
‘89 ‘90 ‘91 ‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09
0
10
20
30
-10
-20
Unemployment rate Annual GDP growth
Annual GDP growth (data of Central Statistical Office). Projections for 2009 vary.Unemployment rate (Rounded. Pct. of economically active population. January results for each year. Data of Central Statistical Office).
4
Civil society and the state
• 1989-1990: Effective and legal freedom of association. Introduction of self-government
• 1999: De-centralization reforms
5
Attitude to Poland's membership in European Union
1989: Independence1994: Start of EU accession negotiations1999: NATO membership2002-2004: Final stage of negotiations, referendum, EU accession
VI1994
V1995
V1996
IV1997
VIII V1998
XII V1999
II2000
V IX III2001
VII I2002
V IX I2003
V IX I2004
IV IX II2005
V IX I2006
IV X I2007
VII IV2008
XI I2009
IV0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Undecided
Opponents
Supporters
Source: CBOS
6
Attitude to Poland's membership in NATO
Source: CBOS
78%
80%
11%
11%
11%
9%
IX 2007
II 2009
Supporters Opponents Don't know
•universal support for EU and NATO membership
7
Evaluation of current situation 1989-2009
Evaluation of current situation in Poland (3-month moving average)
1990-1992 Disenchantment with changes1993-1995 Gradual return of optimism1996-1999 Sustained positive evaluations1999-2001 Continuing slide 2002-2007 Crisis in collective psychological well-being, with brief return of hope in early 2006 2007-2008 Return of optimism, checked by the crisis
III1990
I1991
I1992
I1993
I1994
I1995
I1996
I1997
I1998
I1999
I2000
I2001
I2002
I2003
I2004
I2005
I2006
I2007
I2008
I2009
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Bad
Good
Don’t know
Source: CBOS
8
Number of events
• in good times there are more protests
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20040%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
100
200
300
400
Average pct. of positive evaluations of current situationNo. of protests
9
Organizers
• trade unions organized the majority of events for which the organization is recorded
Organizations leading or sponsoring the event N Pct. of cases
Labor unions 1751 43.5%
out of which: Solidarity Trade Union 775 19.2%
Domestic social movements 312 9.3%
Political parties 260 7.8%
Professional organizations 239 7.1%
Radical political movements 216 6.5%
Strike committees. employees councils 158 4.7%
Regional. local organizations 130 3.9%
Youth organizations 125 3.7%
None 504 15.1%
10
Organizations leading or sponsoring the event (no. of events)
• unions decrease in importance
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20040
50
100
150
200
Labor unions Professional organizations
Political parties Youth organizations
11
Protesting groups
N Percent of Cases
workers 1562 39.5%
neighborhood or local 407 10.3%
youth. students 393 9.9%
farmers 262 6.6%
transport 257 6.5%
health or welfare 229 5.8%
public sector (unspecified) 189 4.8%
service industries 187 4.7%
manual workers protest the most
youth & local groups consistently strong
12
Protesting groups (no. of events)
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
0
50
100
150
200
workers farmers service industries public sector
• relative importance of workers diminish
• 1996-98 rise in protests by public sector employees and healthcare specialist coincides with reform preparation
• farmers active during early transformation and late 1990s (Samoobrona), later fade away
13
Methods of protest
• strikes diminish in importance (from 1st to 5th most common method)
• methods become less disruptive
Riots Occupationof public buildings
Blockadeof road.picket
Symbolicmanifestation
’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
’89 ‘90 ‘91 ‘92 ‘93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Strike Demonstration. march. rally
pen letters.appeals
most common less common
14
Methods of protest by type of organization leading or sponsoring (% of events)
• demonstration most common method regardless of organizer
• only 21% of union protests are strikes
Labor unions Political parties Youth organizations None (spontaneous
events)
Demonstration, march, rally 30.4%
Demonstration, march, rally 59.6%
Demonstration, march, rally 75.2%
Demonstration, march, rally 34.4%
Threat to undertake protest action26.6%
Open letters, statements and appeals 23.5%
Open letters, statements and appeals 32.0%
Open letters, statements and appeals 25.3%
Strike 20.9%
Blockade of road, picket 14.6%
Threat to undertake protest action 8.0%
Threat to undertake protest action 17.7%
15
Demands
• economic demands most common
N Percent of Cases
Change domestic economic policies 920 22.8%
Material compensation 860 21.3%
Change domestic policies 762 18.9%
General dissatisfaction with policies 391 9.7%
General economic demands 303 7.5%
Increased influence in decision making 140 3.5%
Change external/foreign policies 128 3.2%
Ecological demands 121 3.0%
Recognition of identity 60 1.5%
Abortion debate 48 1.2%
Problems of ethnic minorities 36 0.9%
Religious demands 26 0.6%
Other demands 840 20.8%
16
Economic demands
... but becoming gradually less important
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
0
50
100
150
200
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
No. of events with ec. dem.Material compens.
Events with economic demands as pct. of all events in a year
17
Size Pct. of cases
• small events predominate
Data are available for 45.3% of events. Descriptions suggest that many events for which size was not recorded were small
16.4%
37.0%
17.2%
7.6% 7.2% 9.4%5.2%
0-20 21-200 201-500 501--1000
1001--2000
2001--10.000
over 10.000
No. of participants
18
Intervention by authorities (% of events)
Intervention without force 4.0%
Intervention with force 5.7%
No intervention 42.2%
Data unavailable 39.6%
• authorities intervene in 10% of cases
19
Intervention (% of events)
• attitude of authorities to protests changed, but there is no clear trend
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
20
Intervention (% of events in which intervention was recorded)
• young people are at the receiving end of the stick
Protesting groups
workers service sector
neighborhood, local
youth farmers health or welfare
Intervention without force 4.0% 2.1% 4.7% 5.3% 5.0% 3.1%
Intervention with force 4.7% 2.7% 6.6% 16.5% 6.9% 4.4%
21
Protest activities in Europe
• culture of protest weakly developed in CEE
• Poland at the bottom of the ranking
22,4%
17,3%
14,5%
11,2%
9,3%
7,5%
7,1%
7.0%
6,3%
5,8%
4,5%
4,2%
3,7%
3,7%
3,4%
3,3%
2,8%
2,8%
2,1%
2%
1,5%
SpainLuxembourg
FranceItaly
GermanyBelgium
Denmark AustriaSwedenIrelandGreece
United KingdomCzech Republic
PortugalNetherlands
SlovakiaSloveniaHungaryEstoniaFinlandPoland
Respondent had taken part in lawful public demonstration (% of adults)
ESS data 2002-2007
22
Activity in organizations
• this time, Hungary is at the bottom
Worked in non-political organization or association in last 12 months (% of adults)
ESS data
31,9%
25,2%
22,1%
21,5%
21,4%
21,2%
20,9%
19,6%
16,1%
15,5%
12,9%
9,8%
8,8%
8,7%
8,4%
5,5%
5,4%
3,7%
3,6%
2,1%
1,9%
FinlandSweden
DenmarkBelgium
NetherlandsAustria
LuxembourgGermany
FranceSpain
IrelandCzech Republic
United KingdomItaly
SlovakiaPolandGreece
PortugalEstonia
SloveniaHungary
23
Civic activity in organizations
77% 76% 79% 76% 77% 80%
23% 24% 21% 24% 23% 20%
1998 1999 2002 2004 2006 2008Source: CBOS
Inactive Active
• while ESS surveys prove NGOs are weak in CEE, actual number of activists is almost certainly higher than recorded in them
• CBOS surveys indicate that up to 20% of adults may be performing some type of civic activity in organizations, many in more than one area.
24
Membership in trade unions
• unionization in CEE is low, but comparable with many "old" EU countries
(% of employees)
ESS data
81,9%
74,4%
68,1%
43,6%
42,2%
39,6%
33,8%
28,8%
27,1%
25,9%
23,6%
19,8%
16,3%
15,9%
15,1%
14,1%
14,0%
14,0%
13,5%
11,0%
10,2%
DenmarkSwedenFinland
BelgiumLuxembourg
SloveniaIrelandAustria
NetherlandsUnited Kingdom
ItalyGreece
GermanyHungarySlovakiaPortugal
Czech RepublicPolandSpain
FranceEstonia
25
Trade union membership in Poland 1989-2008 (% of adults in Poland)
• membership falls almost everywhere, but in Poland the drop was steeper than in developed countries
• drop in membership stopped and now the rate is constant
CBOS data
V1989
III 990
IV1991
VI1992
XII1993
III1994
IX1995
VI1996
III1999
V2000
VII2001
VII2002
X2003
IX2004
IX2005
II2006
XI2007
XII2008
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Total Solidarity OPZZ
26
Trust Most people can be trusted OR You can't be too careful (10-point scale)
ESS data
6.92
6.51
6.14
5.74
5.59
5.25
5.21
5.11
5.09
4.96
4.86
4.69
4.47
4.41
4.19
4.17
4.12
4.06
3.99
3.79
3.77
Denmark Finland
Sweden Netherlands
Ireland Estonia
United Kingdom Luxembourg
Austria Spain
BelgiumGermany
France Italy
Czech Republic Slovakia Hungary Slovenia Portugal
Poland Greece
• very low level of trust in CEE
27
The end of the transformation?1. In a long-term perspective, protest density diminishes due to
falling stakes.
2. Satisfaction with country situation coincides with strong protest activity: psycho-social factors must be taken into account as potential explanatory variables
3. Labor mobilization steadily decreases due to consolidation of the economic system on the one hand, and to the weakness of unions on the other
4. In the early years, protesting groups defined by professional status. Later, young people and neighbors/locals became major players: formation of civil society based on post-material values?
5. Identity articulation rare, occurs in the early transformation years. Early 1990s were formative also in the cultural sphere, pre-determined long-term collective ideological and cultural definitions
6. If the generally accepted indicators are considered, civil society is weak in Central and Eastern Europe in comparison with other EU or OECD countries, and is not improving.
7. Need for other indicators: informal networks may constitute core of civil society in the region. Picture not so bleak if other dimensions are considered