Urbanisation in Cambodia, Past, Present & Future Trends,

Influencing Factors and Challenges

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Declan O’Leary CIUS Adviser

Presentation given at the

Human Rights Based Spatial Planning Conference,

Phnom Penh, November 4-5, 2015 Organised by: People in Need & Sahmakum Teang Tnaut and supported by the European Union

Contents

1. CIUS Who We are

2. Global to Local

1) Global and Regional

Urbanisation

3. Historical Urbanisation

A Quick Look Back to Antiquity,

the Angkorian City Complex

Urban Decline

4. Contemporary Urbanisation

5. What is Considered Urban

1. Reclassification of Urban Areas

2004, 2011

6. What Are the Drivers of

Urbanisation

The Demographic Profile

Rural Urban Migration

7. The Present Situation

The Urban Distribution

8. Projections of Urbanisation in

Cambodia

The Rapidly Changing Influence

of Urbanisation in Cambodia

9. Urban Areas as Growth Centres

(Urban Drivers 2)

10. Conclusions

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CIUS-Cambodian Institute for

Urban Studies –Who we are

• CIUS is a newly established independent research and

advisory organisation focusing on urban related issues

in Cambodia and the region.

It emerges from a long running informal network of

experts & professionals involved & engaged with

urban related development.

It is current located at Pannasatra University of

Cambodia’s (PUC), Toul Kork Campus, who have

kindly provided much appreciated office space

during the start-up phase.

More information at

• Facebook Page: Cambodian Institute for Urban Studies” (CIUS),

• CIUS can be contacted at cambodian.cius@gmail.com

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Global & Regional Urbanisation 1

• Since 2007 more than half of the World’s Population

(~7,000 Million) now lives in an Urban Area.

– The most recent estimates indicate that >54% of

the world’s population of ~7.3 billion were urban

based in 2014 (WUP 2014).

– Asia, despite its lower level of urbanization, is

currently home to ~55% of the world’s urban

population.

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Global & Regional Urbanisation 2

• The world’s urban population

has grown rapidly, from 746

million in 1950, to 3.9 billion in

2014.

• It is projected to reach ~5

billion by 2030 and 6.3 billion

by 2015.

• Adding ~2.5 billion people to

the world’s urban population by

2050,

• With nearly 90% of the

increase concentrated in

Asia & Africa.

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Global & Regional Urbanisation 3

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UNESCAP/ UNHABITAT (2015) The State of Asian & Pacific Cities 2015

Global & Regional Urbanisation 4

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So by 2050, the world will be one third rural (34%) & two-thirds urban (66%). Roughly the reverse of the global rural-urban population distribution of the mid-20th century.

Historical Urbanisation A Quick Look Back to Antiquity

the Angkorian City Complex

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Urbanisation During the Angkorian

Period

• It is theorised that the Angkorian City Complex in

current day Siem Reap, at its peak during the ~12-

13th Centuries

Was home to between 750,000-1,000,000 people

(and maybe even more).

Covered an estimated 3,000km2,

Considering that contemporary Phnom Penh

covers roughly ~680km2.

• This would have made it one of the largest, if not

the largest settlements in the Pre Industrial World at

that time

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Its Urban Decline 1

But within a couple of hundred years it was mostly

abandoned, why?

It would appear that the sprawling city complex area, had

adversely altered the ecosphere which sustained the city, which

made Angkor extremely climatically and socially vulnerable , by

Progressively transforming the land scape to expand the city ‘s

(costly) infrastructure (incl. 1,000 km2 of water management

systems) and agricultural system to sustain the city, which

increasing erosion and deposition in the important irrigation

systems which became clogged.

Compounded by a period of regional climate change

involving prolonged droughts and intense monsoons during

the 14th and 15th Century according to regional tree ring

studies covering the period 1030-2010 (in Buckley et.al in PNAS

vol.107, #15, 2010).

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Urban Decline 2

• This combinations of episodic water shortage and extreme flows from the late 13th -15th centuries

– Likely led to cascading consequences that

destabilised the city’s dependent systems to feed

and sustain itself.

– Even though it is evident that efforts were made to

adapt the irrigation infrastructure to try and cope

with the changes, which were unsuccessful .

– This weakened the Angkorian Capital’s ability to

sustain itself and exposed it to external threats.

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Contemporary Urbanisation

• But what do we know of Cambodia’s more

contemporary urbanisation?

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Contemporary Urbanisation 1

• Urbanisation in Cambodia has a number of unique attributes, in that

– In living memory all the major urban areas were

emptied of the majority of their populations in 1975.

– Ownership claims of property prior to 1975 were

extinguished in 1989.

– The percentage of urbanisation is comparatively low

but rapidly increasing.

• With resulting changes in the social and economic

landscape of the country.

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What do we Consider Urban

Previous Definition of Urban

Areas (Pre 2004)

The previous designation of

urban areas was based on

administrative criteria, namely:

i. All provincial towns (& the

districts containing them)

ii. Only Four of Phnom Penh’s

(then) 7 districts (the other

three were then considered rural)

iii. The provinces of Sihanoukville,

Kep &Pailin, as they had been

designated Krongs or municipalities (since the 1960s)

though never developed.

• This led to exaggerated figures

for urban areas, as the districts

were often large and mainly of

rural character.

• The designation didn’t allow for

agglomeration of areas

abutting each other, or

• Did not capture other areas with

high population numbers,

densities & urban characteristics

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Reclassification of Urban Areas 1

2004 Reclassification (RC2004)

Criteria used

• Population density >200 persons square kilometer

• % of male employment in agriculture <50%

• Total population of the commune exceeding 2,000

persons

Resulting in

• 162 Communes/ Sangkats considered Urban, in 37

Identified urban areas (ranging in size from ~5000 to over

100,000 persons)

• Adjusted the % of the popn living in an urban areas from

16% to 18% in 1998 15

Reclassification of Urban Areas 2

2011 Reclassification (RC2011)

Criteria used

• Population density >200 persons square kilometer

• % of population (both sexes) in agriculture <50%

• Total population of the commune exceeding 2,000

Resulting in

• 289 Communes / Sangkats considered as Urban

• With 27% of the Population living in urban areas in

2008 up from 20%

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What are the Drivers of Urbanisation ?

There are multiple drivers, but primarily

• Cambodia’s Demographic Profile is the main one, with ~60% of the population under 30 years of age (~29% under15 years of age)

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Cambodia Overall 2008 & 2013 Cambodia Urban Cambodia Rural

Source (CIPS 2013)

Resulting in Rural to Urban Migration

• Increasing migration for

economic opportunities in

urban areas, particularly in the

15-30 years age group. Caused

by:

– Reducing agricultural

employment and earning

potential from agriculture,

• Partially through increasing

mechanisation.

• Limited land holding (avg. 1.6

hectares) by agricultural

dependent households

• Limited access to affordable

land in significant parts of the

country for expansion.

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The Present Situation

The Royal Government has designates 27 Municipalities

across the Country (since 2008)

– The Capital Phnom Penh with its 12 Khans/ Districts

– The 24 Provincial capitals

– 2 Border Municipalities

Cumulative these have 225 Communes/ Sangkats within

their boundaries.

There are a further 64 Communes that meet the official

urban criteria established by the Ministry of Planning

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The Urban Distribution

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Adjustments Due to Urban Reclassification

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The percentage of Urbanisation in terms of each provinces’ population. The 2011 Reclassification adjusted the percentage of each province. This raised the national figure from 20% to 27% of the population living in an urban areas in 2008 which has continued to increase.

• As can be seen of the 3.6 Million people identified

as living in Urban Areas in 2008 (RC2011),

42% (~1.5 Million) of these

were in the Capital

Phnom Penh.

39% (~1.4 Million) were in

the other 26 Municipalities

19% (0.7 Million) were in

the other urban

communes, the largest of

which had over 50,000

People

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The Projections of Urbanisation in Cambodia

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One possible Long View, based on the United Nations standardised

Projection Approach. But is it right?

The Rapidly Changing Influence of

Urbanisation in Cambodia

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The following charts shows the influence of the reclassification of Urban Areas and the increase pace of urbanisation in the country against the standardised model . This shows that • By 2020, a third of the country’s population will be living in an urban area and • By 2050 over half of the population will be living in an urban area

Urban Areas as Growth Centres (Urban Drivers 2)

• In 2011 the Cambodian Economic Census (CES)

identified 505,134 enterprises in Cambodia

• By 2014 for the Inter-censal Economic Survey reported

513,759 enterprises scatterd across the Country.

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Concentration of Businesses &(Non Agri)

Employment in Municipalities

• On closer inspect the following chart shows the

concentration of Provincial Economic Businesses and

their employment levels in terms of the overall

provincial levels

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Some of the Current Challenges

• Continued inconsistencies in the reported of figures for

Municipalities /cities and towns due to

– Under reporting of urban demographic /populations in key

population documents.

– Between the figures report due to • The Commune Database (CDB) data and

• Periodic enumeration (Censuses and Inter-Censal Surveys).

– Levels of Service Provision

• Water Supply, Sanitation

– Land and Tenure Issues

• Tenure situation/land titling and land conflicts

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Factor in Under Reporting of Urban Areas

• The use of obsolete urban datasets

– The recent Cambodian Inter-censal Population Survey (CIPS)

used the 2004 urban dataset, which only considered 169

Communes as urban

• Rather than the more recent 2011 RC which identified 289

communes as urban. Which led to a lower attribution of people

to urban areas resulting in only 21% of the population being

reported as living in urban areas rather than the more likely ~30%

• Under reporting of Urban populations particularly in Phnom Penh

due to disregarding the migrating population

– Local authorities usually report the population based on issued family

books and not the resident population.

• A Recent JICA review (Nishi 2013) found that the Sangkat figures

for Phnom Penh and the census data 2008 differed by ~19% which

indicates a significant under reporting of the urban population in

the capital at least. 28

Conclusions

• Consideration of Urbanisation in Cambodia is currently lagging behind its

increasing important role(s) in the country, with the progressive

movement of the population to urban areas.

• Little or no clear policy and or strategies for effective consideration of the

influence and impacts of urbanisation are in place, which are critical.

– Though it is acknowledged that some activities on these are underway

• The Municipal land use plans etc.. being prepared but as yet

unapproved,

• The National Urban Development Strategy (NUDS) Framework

being prepared ,

• But continued delays could have detrimental impacts on short to medium

term development prospects, limit sustainable development options and

have adverse impacts on the urban population and the environment

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