City Energy and Environment Model SEECity and SiCEDS (working titles) Mark Barrett, Ed Sharp, Claire Holman EnergySpaceTime group NB: Not for quoting; all data and results illustrative

Gas for direct heating TJ /km2 Birmingham : 20401 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 0 1 0 1 15 25 0 9 12 20 12 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 14 11 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1

3 0 0 0 0 0 3 13 24 23 21 7 3 0 11 4 0 3 7 0 11 11 13 13 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 2 0

4 0 0 0 7 4 1 20 8 13 26 32 17 1 22 20 9 33 17 18 25 7 1 21 11 3 1 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0

5 0 1 6 33 14 18 20 18 13 26 31 28 29 26 35 17 23 28 22 12 24 3 17 9 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

6 0 0 1 8 18 10 19 37 26 31 16 18 18 26 30 11 19 28 28 13 25 2 12 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

7 0 0 0 4 16 21 16 25 3 15 30 2 9 20 28 25 23 8 26 9 9 10 16 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0

8 0 0 0 0 10 30 28 30 29 1 15 27 23 19 24 21 22 31 21 16 0 13 22 2 1 1 4 13 1 0 0 0 0 0 1

2 9 0 0 0 1 9 29 24 31 35 24 22 22 34 14 17 3 24 14 33 14 0 0 1 1 12 4 14 25 7 1 0 0 0 0 0

2 10 0 1 0 0 8 8 14 2 18 16 9 10 11 24 25 17 28 5 31 19 20 2 1 16 20 3 1 15 21 26 3 1 0 0 0

11 0 1 6 13 0 0 0 21 21 31 12 23 24 16 13 35 22 20 23 12 16 0 1 12 24 0 0 4 18 4 0 0 0 0 0

12 0 3 22 18 0 0 2 24 19 30 20 28 27 20 2 29 34 19 31 4 12 2 20 18 14 0 0 2 14 22 7 0 0 0 1

13 0 0 11 3 0 2 8 14 29 25 13 23 32 23 2 36 24 34 13 17 22 10 32 4 35 14 0 8 18 21 28 2 0 0 0

14 0 2 1 2 0 0 22 28 31 22 25 22 28 23 16 26 30 21 1 36 4 37 20 34 4 31 30 24 18 24 11 0 0 0 0

15 0 1 3 25 15 1 9 25 27 23 3 19 19 16 21 31 4 0 0 20 4 5 35 37 35 32 29 24 9 21 9 0 0 0 0

16 0 0 0 19 22 8 15 15 24 17 24 4 23 18 4 5 4 4 1 5 6 23 16 2 31 33 35 31 13 20 13 0 0 0 0

17 0 0 0 26 31 25 24 14 11 14 25 18 29 17 17 4 8 2 8 11 5 37 28 2 24 4 37 4 20 19 10 7 0 7 0

18 0 1 1 30 19 17 28 1 4 28 20 14 26 16 1 5 15 17 14 8 6 7 8 24 4 37 31 20 9 33 16 1 1 1 0

19 0 1 0 18 33 21 24 13 18 28 21 21 4 4 37 6 15 19 11 7 4 6 5 15 18 1 2 14 21 16 19 14 11 14 1

20 0 1 1 28 8 35 29 23 20 16 32 27 24 25 33 7 9 13 10 5 36 5 21 29 25 4 36 35 35 24 27 36 26 0 12

21 0 0 3 27 25 25 15 12 22 23 12 18 30 25 4 34 4 4 7 6 4 24 22 15 37 6 4 20 4 21 27 32 24 0 11

22 0 0 3 25 19 22 15 20 15 24 26 2 11 27 36 37 28 25 5 25 32 27 13 30 5 5 30 31 4 30 16 27 20 0 12

23 0 0 1 0 8 16 22 2 4 28 32 17 11 16 23 4 29 35 27 29 22 4 31 36 6 6 34 4 31 20 20 32 35 21 1

24 0 0 0 0 3 4 0 0 12 8 2 0 0 21 21 17 21 34 18 3 17 5 7 10 16 11 27 29 4 28 10 20 26 10 0

25 0 0 0 12 13 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 29 22 26 31 28 4 36 15 21 4 7 32 34 36 33 27 32 8 10 1 0 0

26 0 7 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 7 1 0 0 2 4 27 33 13 15 36 30 33 19 28 36 30 36 26 29 26 4 0 0 0 0

27 0 0 1 0 0 2 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 13 23 17 20 27 30 31 34 21 27 31 4 34 25 26 4 0 0 0 0 0

28 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 1 15 21 23 27 31 23 22 15 21 28 16 30 28 32 26 11 18 10 18 12 0 0 1 0

29 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 22 24 16 21 27 32 26 26 30 21 34 34 29 35 22 18 16 18 23 2 2 0 1 6

30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 21 20 21 24 22 28 16 0 1 15 11 17 30 27 29 8 8 9 1 0 0 0 1

31 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 1 1 1 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 23 3 4 12 17 16 21 16 2 1 0 1 0 0

32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 12 24 10 3 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 13 2 3 15 0 10 19 8 1 12 2 0 1 0

33 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 8 1 1 3 8 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 6 2 1 1 13 2 9 0 16 23 3 0 0 0

34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 29 7 1 4 2 1 10 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 23 8 0 0 0 0

35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 16 2 1 0 0 0 4 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 4 7 2 0 0 0 0

Energy Space Time 2

Introduction

Energy Space Time 3

Introduction

Energy Space Time

Innovate funded 3 year project 2014-2017

SiCEDS Stakeholder interactive City Energy Demand Simulator Purpose To aid stakeholders design and implement plans with a data and model design tool (SiCEDS) to: • Lower fuel poverty • Improve health • Enhance energy security • Improve economics • Reduce greenhouse gas emissions Development 1: Survey of stakeholder needs in different cities 2: Develop data and model 3: Commercialise fast, cloud based software

4

Lead cities: Birmingham Exeter

Energy Space Time

Model and data flow

5

Spatiotemporaldemands:heatelectricitygas

Supply modelsDistrict heatElectricityGas

Stationary scenario:efficiencysupply shares

SECTOR/CITY TOTALSEnergy, carbon & air pollution emissions

costs, fuel poverty

Transport scenario:modetechnology

Public supplyDesignTechnologies

Energy service cost Fuel poverty

People, households, businesses

Non-transport demand model

(mainly buildings)

Transport model

Air pollution concentrations and health impact

National energy costs and carbon

National emissions

Energy Space Time 6

National context

Energy Space Time

National scenario context

7

Electricity • replace fossil and nuclear with renewable • emissions per kWh fall • calculate costs per kWh

Emissions (anthropogenic) • Energy related from energy scenario • Other emissions from Defra projections

& extensions • Note importance of ~constant

ammonia emission for secondary PM2.5

Electricity and emissions

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

TWh

Renewable: variable

Renewable: biomass/hydro

Nuclear

Coal

Oil

Gas

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

kt

NOx

PM2.5 (primary)

Ammonia

Sulphur dioxide

NMVOC

Energy Space Time

National scenario context

8

Electricity

carbon content

Fuel costs

Electricity and hydrogen costs - Different for on peak, off-peak, district heat

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

p/kW

h

Gas

Oil

Coal

Nuclear

Biowaste

BioCrop

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

gCO

2e/k

Wh

Ele average

EleOff

EleHeaOn

EleDH

Hydrogen

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

p/kW

h

EleAve

EleOff

EleHeaOn

EleDH

Hydrogen

Bulk costs and carbon of city energy imports

Energy Space Time

Stationary Demand

9

Energy Space Time

OpenStreetMap vs. OS Mastermap + Addressbase

Example of the poor coverage of OpenStreetMap in Exeter

There are still, however, issues with the OS data.

Deriving non domestic floor area:

10

Energy Space Time

• Energy intensity values derived from Display Energy certificates • Applied to archetypes • In comparison to DECC meter data

• Gas demand + 20% • Probably due to definition of non dom • Electricity demand -100 -150% • Much demand not captured by the DEC data

Deriving non domestic energy demand:

11

Energy Space Time 12

Other data

Demand • Demographics • EST’s Home Analytics database for households/dwellings • Transport Technology costs, efficiencies, emissions • Energy conversion • District heating - AECOM • Electricity network - Fraser Nash

Pollution • Concentrations • Emissions

12

Energy Space Time

People-Building archetypes database (illustration)

13

3 efficiency levels 3 efficiency levels Capital cost NetworkAnnual demands Peak demands Efficiency External

m2 W/oK GJ/a GJ/a GJ/a GJ/a kW kW kW kW k£ m/consumerSpace heat Other heat Elec non heat AirCon Space heat Other heat Elec non heat AirCon

Acro

nym

Desc

riptio

n

% o

f sto

ck

Sect

or

Subs

ecto

r

Npe

ople

Sola

rAre

a

Spec

Loss

0

1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 Elec

Gas

Dist

rict h

eat

Det 15% D Det 4 4.0 400 33 25 13 8 7 6 24 22 17 10 8 4 2 1 1 5 4 3 0.0 13 38 10 10 10Sem 30% D Sem 2.5 3.0 300 25 19 9.4 5 5 4 15 14 11 8 6 3 1 1 1 3 3 2 0.0 10 28 8 8 8Ter 30% D Ter 2.2 2.0 200 17 13 6.3 4 4 3 13 12 10 5 4 2 1 1 1 3 2 2 0.0 7 19 7 7 7Fla 25% D Fla 1.5 0.5 150 13 9.4 4.7 3 3 2 9 8 6 4 3 2 1 1 0 2 2 1 0.0 5 14 5 5 5Off 50% N Office 10 5.0 700 120 90 45 50 45 36 100 90 72 5.0 4.0 3.6 18 14 7 10 9 7 20 18 14 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.0 48 135 5 5 5Sho 50% N Shop 3 2.0 500 36 27 14 15 14 11 30 27 22 1.5 1.2 1.1 13 10 5 3 3 2 6 5 4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 14 41 5 5 5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Det Sem Ter Fla Off ShoSp

ace

heat

GJ/

a

Eff 1

Eff 2

Eff 3

• People • Form • Area • Heat loss • Demands • Costs • Network lengths

13

Energy Space Time

Non domestic efficiency packages - sources?

14

What are incremental installation costs of efficiency packages for reducing: • Reducing space heat loss

(W/oK/m2=>kWh/a/m2) with insulation and ventilation heat recovery for existing and new buildings

• Reducing electricity use for lighting, computing etc.

Costs will depend on details of buildings and equipment use. Then multiply costs per m2 by floor areas of buildings to get total cost 0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

£/m

2(flo

or)

kWh/a/m2(floor)

Total (new)

Total (retro)

4 space heat efficiency packages something like this?

Energy Space Time

Scenario (west Midlands) – stationary demand

Drivers Building efficiency Services

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

k

PopRes

HHolds

Enterprises

Premises

PopNonRes

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060

2065

Effic

ienc

y of

stoc

ks

3 high

2 medium

1 Low

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

TJ

Transport

Electric

Air conditioning

Other heat

Space heat15

Energy Space Time

Scenario (west Midlands) – heating systems (gas, electric, district heat only)

Domestic Non domestic

0200400600800

100012001400

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

k

Dis Heat

CHP

Heat pump

Elec off

Elec res

Gas boiler

0

50

100

150

200

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

k

Dis Heat

CHP

Heat pump

Elec off

Elec res

Gas boiler

16

Energy Space Time

2015 (west Midlands) – heat load Heat load total Heat load total TJ /km2 Birmingham : 2015Total 37548 TJ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

10430 GWh 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Maximum 403.8 TJ/km2 2 0.7 2 0.6 3.2 32 54 0.4 20 25 43 26 0.6 0 0 0 4 2.2 0.7 0 0 0.3 3.2 30 27 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.2 0.1 0 0.1 0.3 1.6 1.8

Minimum 0.0 3 0.7 0 0.3 0.6 0.5 5.8 28 52 51 47 15 7.2 0.1 24 8.5 0.2 6.1 15 0.1 23 24 28 29 20 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.1 0 1 5.5 0.1 3.3 0

Average 31.7 TJ/km2 4 0.6 0 0.1 15 8.6 2.4 43 18 28 57 70 37 2 47 43 20 73 37 39 55 16 1.1 46 21 6 2.8 0.3 0.7 20 0.2 0.1 0 0.2 0 0

Total 2500 /km2 5 0.6 1.1 14 71 31 40 44 40 29 56 68 62 64 58 77 37 49 61 49 25 53 7.2 35 20 3.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 5.9 0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0 1

Non zero 1186 /km2 6 0.6 0 1.4 18 38 23 41 80 57 67 34 39 40 57 66 23 41 61 61 29 53 3.4 27 40 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.9 0

7 0.6 0.5 0.1 7.9 35 45 35 55 5.7 33 65 3.9 19 44 62 55 50 18 57 20 20 18 35 3 0.4 0.7 0.1 0 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.3 0

8 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.7 22 66 62 66 63 2.4 32 59 50 41 52 47 48 67 45 36 0.1 29 48 3.4 2.1 2.9 8.5 29 2.9 0 0 0 0 0.3 2

EWTJ/km2 9 0.6 0 0.9 1.6 20 62 53 67 77 51 49 48 74 30 38 6.1 53 30 73 30 0.4 0.1 3.1 1.2 22 8.6 31 54 15 2.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.3

NSTJ/km2 10 0.6 1.5 0.1 0.7 17 18 29 5.3 39 35 20 23 24 52 53 38 60 99 67 41 42 3.5 2.2 37 44 6.9 3.2 30 45 60 7.2 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.2

11 0.6 1.7 13 29 1 0.3 1 45 45 68 26 49 53 34 29 75 47 44 50 26 34 0.2 1.2 27 51 0 0 8.2 39 8.8 0.1 1 0.1 0.1 0.2

12 0.6 6 47 39 0.4 0.5 4.6 52 41 65 44 61 59 43 4.8 63 74 40 68 87 26 5.4 46 39 32 0 0 5.4 31 49 16 0.2 0.1 0.1 1.8

13 0.6 1.1 23 6.2 0.1 3.9 18 30 64 55 27 49 69 49 4.2 78 52 74 29 37 47 8.9 71 87 77 31 0.6 17 40 45 62 4.4 0.3 0.3 0.3

14 0.6 4.3 2.9 4 0.7 0.1 47 61 67 48 54 48 61 49 35 58 66 46 2.4 77 93 91 42 74 93 68 58 51 40 51 25 0.6 0 0.1 0

15 0.5 1.7 7.1 55 32 1.4 20 54 59 50 7 42 42 34 46 68 87 0 0 42 86 95 76 83 75 72 61 77 17 41 18 0.3 1 0.3 0.3

16 0.5 0.6 0 41 48 16 32 32 53 37 52 84 51 39 8.8 116 88 8.7 2.5 105 119 50 36 4.1 66 72 76 68 28 44 29 0 0.2 0.2 0

17 0.5 0.1 0.1 57 67 54 52 31 23 31 55 39 63 36 37 84 183 4.4 162 246 117 88 57 5 51 81 80 60 45 41 23 15 0.4 15 0.1

18 0.5 1.3 2.3 65 41 36 61 1.4 7.9 60 43 31 57 35 3 116 332 370 306 174 120 140 190 51 7.9 87 67 52 19 71 34 1.4 1.5 1.3 0.1

19 0.5 2.6 0.1 40 73 45 53 27 39 60 46 45 89 93 81 140 329 404 240 154 96 163 113 27 39 1.6 5 33 75 31 40 31 26 31 1.1

20 0.5 2.3 3 61 18 77 63 50 43 35 69 58 52 55 72 148 199 273 213 112 77 72 36 80 55 94 80 69 77 56 60 87 55 0.6 27

21 0.5 0 6.7 58 55 55 33 25 48 50 27 39 65 55 85 73 94 89 141 121 97 49 46 38 82 132 94 43 61 46 59 70 50 0 24

22 0.5 0.2 6.8 55 41 47 32 44 32 53 57 4.5 23 59 78 81 60 55 111 55 70 60 26 48 107 123 67 67 88 60 36 52 44 1 26

23 0.5 0.3 1.9 0.9 17 35 48 3.3 8.8 60 70 37 25 36 50 86 62 77 58 62 47 96 68 79 119 135 76 80 69 42 44 70 77 46 1.2

24 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 5.9 8.8 0.3 0.1 26 17 4.3 1 0.5 45 45 37 45 74 40 5.6 36 101 142 207 36 19 57 67 84 62 21 43 56 20 0

25 0.4 0.1 1 26 28 3.4 0 0.1 0.2 0 2.2 0 0.4 64 49 56 68 61 88 77 32 45 90 161 69 76 78 71 61 70 18 21 1.7 0 0

26 0.4 15 0.3 2.5 2.2 1.5 3 0.2 0.7 15 1.3 0 0.6 3.9 7.9 59 73 27 34 79 65 77 42 66 77 67 80 53 60 56 8.8 0 0 0 0

27 0.4 0.8 1.8 1 0.4 3.6 3.4 0.1 0.4 2.2 0 0 0.2 0 28 51 37 44 60 65 68 69 50 51 67 85 72 56 56 8.1 0.7 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.1

28 0.4 0 0.3 0.4 0.4 7.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 1 1.1 33 46 51 59 67 51 47 33 46 61 35 65 57 74 54 24 40 22 40 27 0.1 0.4 2.2 0.4

29 0.4 0.5 0.5 1 0.1 1.6 0.4 0.3 1.1 0 0.1 47 53 36 46 58 69 56 56 65 45 75 73 64 77 47 43 36 40 50 3.6 3.5 0.3 2.8 9.2

30 0.4 0 1 0 0.5 0.4 0 1 0.5 1.5 0.6 6 45 44 45 51 47 61 34 0.7 2.6 34 27 38 62 59 63 18 20 21 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.9 1.3

31 0.4 1 4.8 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.4 3.9 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.9 1.9 19 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.3 52 6.8 8.2 27 40 34 45 36 3.5 1.6 0.7 1.4 0.3 0

32 0.4 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 3.1 27 52 22 5.7 5.2 2.6 0 2.9 0.5 0.5 0.3 1.3 3.3 28 3.6 5.5 32 0.9 22 41 16 1.4 26 4.4 0 1.3 0.2

33 0.4 0 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.1 3.6 17 1.2 1.3 6.1 16 1.7 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 1.4 3.3 9 5 2.1 2.1 28 4.4 18 0.1 35 49 6.4 0.1 0.1 0.1

34 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.3 0 0.3 0.1 14 63 16 1.4 8.7 3.5 1.2 22 4.7 0.2 0.1 1 0.2 2.6 1.5 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.6 0 0.1 17 51 16 0.5 0.3 0.6 0

35 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.7 44 35 4.4 2.5 1 0.3 0.7 8.1 5.7 1.1 0.1 0.1 1 1.2 1.8 0.4 4.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.2 7.7 15 3.9 0.5 0.6 0 0.2

0

100

200

300

400

500

0 40 81 121

162

202

242

283

323

363

404

Num

ber s

quar

es

TJ/km2

0

100

200

300

400

500

TJ/k

m2

400-500300-400200-300100-2000-100

0

500

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34EWTJ

/km

2

0

500

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34NST

J/km

2

17

Energy Space Time

Scenario 2040 (west Midlands) – gas heating

Gas for direct heating Gas for direct heating TJ /km2 Birmingham : 2040Total 13244 TJ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

3679 GWh 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Max 37.5 TJ/km2 2 0 1 0 1 15 25 0 9 12 20 12 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 14 11 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1

Min 0.0 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 13 24 23 21 7 3 0 11 4 0 3 7 0 11 11 13 13 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 2 0

Average 11.2 TJ/km2 4 0 0 0 7 4 1 20 8 13 26 32 17 1 22 20 9 33 17 18 25 7 1 21 11 3 1 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 2500 /km2 5 0 1 6 33 14 18 20 18 13 26 31 28 29 26 35 17 23 28 22 12 24 3 17 9 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

>zero 1186 /km2 6 0 0 1 8 18 10 19 37 26 31 16 18 18 26 30 11 19 28 28 13 25 2 12 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

7 0 0 0 4 16 21 16 25 3 15 30 2 9 20 28 25 23 8 26 9 9 10 16 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0

8 0 0 0 0 10 30 28 30 29 1 15 27 23 19 24 21 22 31 21 16 0 13 22 2 1 1 4 13 1 0 0 0 0 0 1

EWTJ/km2 9 0 0 0 1 9 29 24 31 35 24 22 22 34 14 17 3 24 14 33 14 0 0 1 1 12 4 14 25 7 1 0 0 0 0 0

NSTJ/km2 10 0 1 0 0 8 8 14 2 18 16 9 10 11 24 25 17 28 5 31 19 20 2 1 16 20 3 1 15 21 26 3 1 0 0 0

11 0 1 6 13 0 0 0 21 21 31 12 23 24 16 13 35 22 20 23 12 16 0 1 12 24 0 0 4 18 4 0 0 0 0 0

12 0 3 22 18 0 0 2 24 19 30 20 28 27 20 2 29 34 19 31 4 12 2 20 18 14 0 0 2 14 22 7 0 0 0 1

13 0 0 11 3 0 2 8 14 29 25 13 23 32 23 2 36 24 34 13 17 22 10 32 4 35 14 0 8 18 21 28 2 0 0 0

14 0 2 1 2 0 0 22 28 31 22 25 22 28 23 16 26 30 21 1 36 4 37 20 34 4 31 30 24 18 24 11 0 0 0 0

15 0 1 3 25 15 1 9 25 27 23 3 19 19 16 21 31 4 0 0 20 4 5 35 37 35 32 29 24 9 21 9 0 0 0 0

16 0 0 0 19 22 8 15 15 24 17 24 4 23 18 4 5 4 4 1 5 6 23 16 2 31 33 35 31 13 20 13 0 0 0 0

17 0 0 0 26 31 25 24 14 11 14 25 18 29 17 17 4 8 2 8 11 5 37 28 2 24 4 37 4 20 19 10 7 0 7 0

18 0 1 1 30 19 17 28 1 4 28 20 14 26 16 1 5 15 17 14 8 6 7 8 24 4 37 31 20 9 33 16 1 1 1 0

19 0 1 0 18 33 21 24 13 18 28 21 21 4 4 37 6 15 19 11 7 4 6 5 15 18 1 2 14 21 16 19 14 11 14 1

20 0 1 1 28 8 35 29 23 20 16 32 27 24 25 33 7 9 13 10 5 36 5 21 29 25 4 36 35 35 24 27 36 26 0 12

21 0 0 3 27 25 25 15 12 22 23 12 18 30 25 4 34 4 4 7 6 4 24 22 15 37 6 4 20 4 21 27 32 24 0 11

22 0 0 3 25 19 22 15 20 15 24 26 2 11 27 36 37 28 25 5 25 32 27 13 30 5 5 30 31 4 30 16 27 20 0 12

23 0 0 1 0 8 16 22 2 4 28 32 17 11 16 23 4 29 35 27 29 22 4 31 36 6 6 34 4 31 20 20 32 35 21 1

24 0 0 0 0 3 4 0 0 12 8 2 0 0 21 21 17 21 34 18 3 17 5 7 10 16 11 27 29 4 28 10 20 26 10 0

25 0 0 0 12 13 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 29 22 26 31 28 4 36 15 21 4 7 32 34 36 33 27 32 8 10 1 0 0

26 0 7 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 7 1 0 0 2 4 27 33 13 15 36 30 33 19 28 36 30 36 26 29 26 4 0 0 0 0

27 0 0 1 0 0 2 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 13 23 17 20 27 30 31 34 21 27 31 4 34 25 26 4 0 0 0 0 0

28 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 1 15 21 23 27 31 23 22 15 21 28 16 30 28 32 26 11 18 10 18 12 0 0 1 0

29 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 22 24 16 21 27 32 26 26 30 21 34 34 29 35 22 18 16 18 23 2 2 0 1 6

30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 21 20 21 24 22 28 16 0 1 15 11 17 30 27 29 8 8 9 1 0 0 0 1

31 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 1 1 1 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 23 3 4 12 17 16 21 16 2 1 0 1 0 0

32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 12 24 10 3 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 13 2 3 15 0 10 19 8 1 12 2 0 1 0

33 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 8 1 1 3 8 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 6 2 1 1 13 2 9 0 16 23 3 0 0 0

34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 29 7 1 4 2 1 10 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 23 8 0 0 0 0

35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 16 2 1 0 0 0 4 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 4 7 2 0 0 0 0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0 4 7 11 15 19 22 26 30 34 37

Num

ber s

quar

es

TJ/km2

0

10

20

30

40

TJ/k

m2

30-40

20-30

10-20

0-10

0

20

40

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34EWTJ

/km

2

0

20

40

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34

NST

J/km

2

18

Energy Space Time

District Heating

19

Energy Space Time 20

Scenario (west Midlands) –district heat

Density and consumers - as minimum head load

density decreases, more consumers connected

Heat mix - Decreasing CHP and

increasing heat pump fractions of heat supply as renewables increase

Energy inputs and generation - Gradual increase in

renewable electricity input

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

0

100

200

300

400

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

Cons

umer

(k)

Dens

ity T

J/km

2

DH min density

Schemes

Consumers

050100150200250300350

05000

1000015000200002500030000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

TJ/k

m2

TJ

HeaFromBoi

HeaFromCHP

HeaFromHP

HeaSup

Heat pipe losses

Heat input to pipes

DH min density

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

TJ

GasForBoi

GasForCHP

EleForPump

EleForHP

EleGenCHPDH_TJ

20

Energy Space Time

Scenario (west Midlands) - district heating

DH Heat load DH Heat load TJ /km2 Birmingham : 2040Total 6537 TJ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

1816 GWh 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Max 287.1 TJ/km2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Min 0.0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Average 102.1 TJ/km2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 2500 /km2 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

>zero 64 /km2 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EWTJ/km2 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

NSTJ/km2 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 66 61 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 70 0 0 0 68 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 77 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 62 0 0 0 78 0 0 0 66 65 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 97 0 ## ## 74 61 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ## ## ## ## ## ## 99 ## 0 0 61 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 66 0 0 ## ## ## ## ## 68 92 83 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ## ## ## ## 69 0 0 0 0 0 71 0 0 64 0 0 0 0 0 0

21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 72 0 71 81 89 75 72 0 0 0 0 94 69 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 92 0 0 0 0 0 0 87 89 0 0 66 0 0 0 0 0 0

23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 65 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 90 ## 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 71 ## ## 0 0 0 0 61 0 0 0 0 0 0

25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 65 0 0 0 72 ## 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 63 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

05

101520253035

0 29 57 86 115

144

172

201

230

258

287

Num

ber s

quar

es

TJ/km2

050

100150200250

300

TJ/k

m2

250-300200-250150-200100-15050-1000-50

0

200

400

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34EWTJ

/km

2

0

200

400

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34

NSTJ

/km

2

21

Energy Space Time

Scenario (west Midlands) Spatial evolution of district heat in scenario 2025-2055

DH Schemes /km2 Birmingham : 20251 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34

1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

DH Schemes /km2 Birmingham : 20351 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34

1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0

22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

DH Schemes /km2 Birmingham : 20451 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34

1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 9 0 0 0 0 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

8 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 0 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

17 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

18 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 21 0 0 0 0 0

19 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

20 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 23 0 0 0

21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 23 0 0 0

22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 22 22 0 0

24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 0 0 20 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

DH Schemes /km2 Birmingham : 20551 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34

1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

5 0 0 0 3 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

7 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

8 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 11 11 0 0 0 0 0

11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

12 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0

14 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

15 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

16 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

17 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

18 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

19 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

20 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0

21 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0

22 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0

23 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0

24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0

25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0

30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0

34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 0

35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

22

Energy Space Time

Scenario (west Midlands) District heating – schemes generated

Economies of scale mean larger schemes have lower unit costs

23

Energy Space Time

Scenario (west Midlands) District heating: technical summary

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

DHHe

aDel

HeaL

os

EleF

orPu

mp

HeaI

ntoD

H

HeaF

rom

CHP

HeaF

rom

HP

HeaF

rom

Boi

Gas

ForC

HP

EleF

orHP

Gas

ForB

oi

EleG

enCH

PDH

TJ

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

HeaPea CHPHea CHPEle HPHea Boi

MW

Energy flows Capacities

24

Energy Space Time

Scenario (west Midlands) District heating: economic summary

0200400600800

10001200140016001800

Pipe Sto CHP HP Boi

M£

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

TotCap ElePum EleHP Gas CostOM EleGenCHPDH

M£/

a

Capacity capital value Annuitised costs

25

Energy Space Time

Transport

26

Energy Space Time

Scenario: transport passenger

Demand by mode Shift from car to non-

mechanised, bus, train

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

Boat

Train

Bus

Taxi

Car

Mcycle

Cycle

Walk

Passenger distance by mode

0.002.004.006.008.00

10.0012.0014.00

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

Gp.

km

PlaBoaTraBusTaxCarMcyCycWal

27

Energy Space Time

Scenario: transport technology share - shift to electricity

28

Passenger Freight

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060

2065

Van_ICdVan_ICpVan_EleVan_H2FTru_ICdTru_EleTru_H2FTra_EleTra_LiqBoa_EleBoa_Liq

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060

2065

WalCyc_HumMcy_ICpMcy_EleCar_ICdCar_ICpCar_EleCar_H2FBus_ICdBus_EleBus_H2FTra_EleTra_LiqBoa_EleBoa_LiqPla_Liq

28

Energy Space Time

Scenario (west Midlands): transport energy

Passenger energy by

technology

Energy for passenger and freight

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065TJ

Pla_LiqBoa_EleBoa_LiqTra_EleTra_LiqBus_EleBus_H2FBus_ICdCar_EleCar_H2FCar_ICpCar_ICdMcy_EleMcy_ICpCyc_EleCyc_Hum

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

TJ

Freight:Hydrogen

Freight:Elec

Freight:Liquid

Passenger:Hydrogen

Passenger:Elec

Passenger:Liquid

29

Energy Space Time 30

Deliveries Shift from fossil gas

and oil to electricity and DH

Electricity

consumption Increase for heating

and transport Electricity generation Steady increase in

solar PV and initial increase in CHP

Scenario (west Midlands)– demand and supply

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

TJ

Hydrogen

Heat

Electricity

Solid

Liquid

Gas

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

TJ

Hydrogen

DH heat pumps

DH pumping

Transport

Heat

AirCon

Non-heat stationary

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

TJ

Other generation DH

CHP DH

CHP individual

Solar PV

30

Energy Space Time

winter spring summer autumn Heat

Scenario 2050 (west Midlands) heat and electricity dynamics

050

100150200250

MW

S_GenPub:Ele

S_DHeCHP:Ele

S_SPV:Ele

S_StaCHP:Ele

0

500

1000

1500

2000

MW

D_StaNon:HeaSpa

D_StaNon:HeaOth

D_StaDom:HeaOth

D_StaDom:HeaSpa

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

MW

D_TraVan:EleNHe

D_TraBus:EleNHe

D_TraCar:EleNHe

D_TraTra:EleNHe

D_StaNon:EleHea

D_StaNon:AirCon

D_StaNon:EleNHe

D_StaDom:EleHea

D_StaDom:AirCon

D_StaDom:EleNHe

Electricity demand Load manipulation with EV batteries

Electricity generation

31

Energy Space Time

Economics

32

Energy Space Time

INPUT UNIT COSTS (taxes and subsidies not included) National energy • Scenarios for energy costs and carbon contents

Technology • Scale dependent unit capital and operational costs of technologies -

energy efficiency, vehicles, energy converters, storage and networks CALCULATION OF ANNUAL COSTS • Calculate annual costs and revenues of energy related services and

technologies for consumers, suppliers and whole city. • Capital costs of installed technology annuitised over technology lifetimes

with a single discount rate • Operation and maintenance costs of installed technology . • Energy costs and revenues calculated with national energy costs • Could calculate cost of air pollution health damage from premature deaths

or years of lost life?

Economics

33

Energy Space Time

Technology scale economies

Capital costs

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1 10 100 1000 10000 100000

£/kW

or k

Wh

kW

BoiGas

HPEle

CHPgas

StoHea

StoBat

EleRes

DisHea

EneHub

0%50%

100%150%200%250%300%350%400%

1 10 100 1000 10000 100000

Effic

ienc

y

kW

BoiGas

EleRes

HPEle

CHPgas

StoHea

StoBat

DHPipe

Efficiency

34

Energy Space Time

Air pollution

35

Energy Space Time

Air pollution calculation

1. Collate base year concentrations by source for city

2. Project city and national emissions

3. Project concentrations using: a. changes in emissions from sources b. NOx oxidation c. Secondary PM formation

4. Calculate premature deaths and years of lost life

36

Energy Space Time

http://esenergyvis.wordpress.com/ NOx concentration

Air pollution data: Concentration Birmingham London

37

Energy Space Time 38

Air pollution data: • Emissions available by source • Contribution to concentration as per

algorithm below • Concentration isolated by Local authority • External sources contribute

Energy Space Time

Air pollution concentrations - national

39

0.05.0

10.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.0

Birmingham CityCouncil

Exeter City Council City of EdinburghCouncil

ColchesterBorough Council

NO

x as

NO

2 µg

/m3

Total_NOx_11

Rural_11

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

Birmingham CityCouncil

Exeter CityCouncil

City of EdinburghCouncil

ColchesterBorough Council

PM2.

5 µg

/m3

Total_PM2.5_11

Exc Res+salt

PM_secondary_11

UK Defra concentration projections ==

Energy Space Time

Air pollution base year concentration by source - Birmingham

0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0

10.0

Conc

entr

atio

ns a

re a

s ug.

m-3

NO

x as

NO

2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

ug.m

-3 g

ravi

met

ric P

M2.

5

NOx as NO2

PM2.5

40

Energy Space Time

Emission to concentration model

Multiply base year concentrations Cb for each source by the ratio of future emission/formation index (Icf) which is the calculated future year NO2 (primary and ‘rural’) and PM2.5 (primary and secondary) divided by the calculated base year index (Icb) to obtain future concentrations Cf. For each source: Cf = Cb Icf / Icb µg/m3 The proposed methods for calculating the NOx and PM2.5 indices are on the next 2 slides.

41

Energy Space Time

NOx to NO2

42

For base and future year: 1. Estimate city and national (and European?) NOx emissions

(kt) from different sectors – transport, electricity etc.

2. Estimate fraction f(NO2) of city and national NOx from these sources that is emitted as nitrogen dioxide (NO2), with the rest being nitric oxide (NO)

3. Estimate oxidation of city and national NO to NO2 using oxidation equation with NO2 and ozone oxidants

4. Normalise calculated NO2 to Defra base year value.

5. Result is city and rural (or background) concentration indices; IcNO2(c) and IcNO2(r) (µg/m3)

Energy Space Time

Secondary PM2.5

43

For base and future year:

1. Assume UK (and Europe) emissions of: • Primary PM2.5 • PM2.5 precursors: nitrate, sulphate and ammonium

2. Estimate formation of secondary PM2.5 to obtain

background concentration index for each city with a linear equation:

IcPM2.5 = k1 NOx + k2 SO2 + (k3 NH3 assumed constant)

3. Add national primary and secondary PM2.5 to give PM2.5 (rural/background) concentration index for city; IcPM2.5(r)

Energy Space Time

Air pollution projections - national

0%20%40%60%80%

100%120%

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065In

dex

Transport demand

Transport electrification

Transport chemical fuel emissionindex

Transport overall emission index

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

kt NOx

PM2.5 (primary)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

NOx background

PM2.5 Secondary

PM2.5 resid+salt

Transport

National primary emissions

Background concentration indices

44

Energy Space Time

City emissions air pollution and CO2

45

PM2.5

Excluding dust resuspension

NOx

CO2

45 0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

kt CO2 indirect

CO2 direct

0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.0

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

kt

N:Point sources

C:Other

C:Industry+Supp

C:Dom+NonDom

C:Road transport

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

kt

PM2.5 brakes

PM2.5 tyres/road

PM2.5 exhaust

Energy Space Time

Air pollution emission and city concentration projections: Birmingham NOx

46

NOx emission indices

City NOx concentration

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

Nor

mal

fact

or

µg/m

3 Calculated

Normalised

Normal fac

City NO2 calculated concentration

46

Energy Space Time

Air pollution emission and concentration projections : Birmingham

NOx (NO2 similar change)

PM2.5

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

ug/m

3

N:Res+Salt

N:Secondary

N:Primary

C:Industry+Supp

C:Other

C:Dom+NonDom

C:Road transport

47

Energy Space Time

Health model

The relative risk RR (a fraction) is the concentration response factor CRF raised to the power ((change in concentration dC)/10): RR = CRF(dC/10) The attributable fraction AF due to air pollution is calculated: AF = (RR-1)/RR The premature deaths PD per year is the population over 30 yrs old Pop30 times the baseline mortality rate Mb times the attributable fraction AF: PD= Pop30 Mb AF The years of life lost (years) YLL is the premature deaths PD times the years of life per premature death YLLd (assumed to be 12 years) YLL = PD YLLd

48

Energy Space Time

Air pollution health impacts: Birmingham

Years of lost life

Premature deaths

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

Popu

latio

n (k

)

Prem

ateu

re d

eath

s (k)

PD NO2

PD PM2.5

PD combined

Pop: all

Pop: over 30 yrs

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0.02.04.06.08.0

10.012.014.016.018.0

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

Popu

latio

(k)

Year

s los

t life

(k) YLL NO2

YLL PM2.5

YLL combined

Pop: all

Pop: over 30 yrs

49

Energy Space Time

Air pollution health impacts: Birmingham 2015

50

NOx: C:Road transport

24%

NOx: C:Dom+NonDom

4%NOx:

C:Industry+Supp3%NOx: C:Other

10%

NOx: N:Point sources

1%

NOx: N:Rural13%

PM2.5 C:Road transport

5%

PM2.5 C:Dom+NonDom

1%

PM2.5 C:Other2%

PM2.5 C:Industry+Supp

2%

PM2.5 N:Primary1%

PM2.5 N:Secondary18%

PM2.5 N:Res+Salt16%

Energy Space Time

Air pollution health impacts: Birmingham

51

Premature deaths by pollutant and source

Premature deaths affected by policy

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

k City policy

National policy

Natural, beyond policy

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

k

NO2: city source

PM2.5: city source

NO2: national source

PM2.5 primary: national source

PM2.5 secondary: national source

PM2.5 salt, residual, other natural

Energy Space Time

Thanks for listening

52

Questions?

Energy Space Time 53

SiCEDS

City Energy and Environment model for urban planning stakeholders

Mark Barrett, Ed Sharp, Claire Holman

NB: Results illustrative

FAIRMODE/TFIAM Utrecht 15/16 Feb 2017

Energy Space Time

Conclusions • Large variation in internal/external contributions to concentrations city to city • For individual city policy, assumptions about what happens outside city critical

Solutions (technical) • Renewable electricity (except biomass) and electrification are a general solution to

NO2 on city and larger scales, and reduce GHG emission, requiring city and (inter)national policy

• PM heterogeneous and primary PM from natural sources and non-exhaust vehicle and secondary PM from ammonia hard to control.

Some questions • Are natural PM sources important in terms of health – dust, salt, etc.? • How robust are the health response: concentration relationships, including the

synergy between PM2.5 and NO2? • What about exposure in confined spaces – buildings & transport - where people

spend ~90% of their time? Could air cleaning (removal of NO2, PM etc.) be used here?

• Will switching from diesel to gasoline reduce NOx but increase CO2?

Air pollution: conclusions, solutions and questions

54

Energy Space Time

Taking pollution to law

55

ClientEarth challenged the UK air quality plan under 2008/50/EC Directive on ambient air quality Judge’s conclusions: • Competent authority can’t use cost as a reason not to meet limit

values

• Compliance must be achieved as soon as possible so modelling at 5 years intervals inadequate

• Emissions modelling too optimistic

• Appropriate to make declaration that Plan fails to meet Directive – could order Plan be quashed