citrus tree plantings leading to substantial production growth

Citrus Tree Plantings

Leading to Substantial

Production Growth Impact on the Logistics Chain

April 2017M Brooke: Logistics Development Manager

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Overview:

1) Fruit Export Corridors & Regional Logistics Characteristics

2) Analyses of Tree Census Data toForecast Production Growth

3) Historical & Forecast ExportVolume

4) Summary of 2017 LogisticsDemands

Map of Fruit Production in SA & the 3

Fruit Export Transit Corridors

Source: CGA

Northern region

exports through

Durban Port

Northern & Western

Cape region exports

through Cape Town

Port

Eastern Cape region

exports through PE &

Coega Ports

Regional Logistics Characteristics

Northern Region ex Durban Port -

Long haulage distances with general delays to inbound trucks (improved state),

High peak season volume throughput causes capacity constraints,

Congested infrastructure in busy zones i.e. Point, Maydon Wharf and Bayheadprecincts,

Cold Chain management is problematic due to condensed season,

Containerized flows are inefficient and ineffective,

DCT a huge issue for this region i.e. planning, congestion, TTT, wind etc etc…

Eastern Cape ex PE & Coega Ports –

Short haulage distances with 80% containerization inland,

Expanding export volume base with good infrastructure – Addo road!!!

Multi port [terminal] system with surplus reefer capacity & good efficiency,

Expanding citrus production will begin to test the region…

Western Cape ex Cape Town Port –

Medium to Long haulage distances with ~50% containerized inland,

Surplus cold storage capacity counter to deciduous seasons,

Good access to port system but with congestion,

CTCT surplus capacity & good efficiency although wind affect the containerterminal frequently…

4 931

1 727

201 450 1 126 1 380

30 6

24 469

12 446

4 744 3 465

2 258 1 382

108 11

9 267

5 225

1 700 1 635 501 132 26 48

38 667

19 399

6 646 5 551

3 885 2 893

164 65

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000

Grand Total VALENCIA GRAPEFRUIT NAVEL LEMONS MANDARINS CLEMENTINES MIDSEASON

Northern Region Tree Census by Age (Ha)

<5 5 to 20 >20 Grand Total

Nadorcott 502

Valley Gold

227

Valencia Late

659

Midknight 490

Star Ruby 187 Witkrans 193 Eureka 895 Nules 22 Tomango 6

Analysis of Tree Census Data

Source: CGA

3% 71% 26% 29% 58% 13% 9% 17% 74%8% 62% 29%9% 64% 27% 18% 66% 16%48% 48% 5%13% 63% 24%

1 368

1 007

161

94 94

12

1 146

399 386

303

58

957

714

115 77

51

862

342 298

134

73

15

259

167

49 30 13

198

139

29 29 2

-

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

Northern Region Tree Census by Age <5 Years (Ha)


Source: CGA

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1 5 9 1317212529333741 4 8 1216202428 1 5 9 13172125293337 2 6 111519232737 2 6 101418222637

VALENCIA GRAPEFRUIT NAVEL LEMONS MANDARINS

Northern Region Tree Census Age Profile (Ha)


Source: CGA

3 935

880 1 530

291

1 192

37 2

10 682

4 009

2 231 2 375 1 671

202 147 33

4 423

1 694

758

1 522

249 158 42

19 041

6 583

4 518 4 188

3 113

396 191 33

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

Grand Total NAVEL LEMONS VALENCIA MANDARINS CLEMENTINES GRAPEFRUIT MIDSEASON

Eastern Cape Region Tree Census by Age (Ha)


Eureka 1128

Lisbon 272

Nadorcott 301

Tango 265

Valley Gold

213

Nova 184

Cambria 335

Witkrans 158

Midknights

214

Nules 30

34% 49% 17% 38% 54% 8% 0% 100% 0%7% 57% 36%13% 61% 26% 1% 77% 22%9% 51% 40%21% 56% 23%

Source: CGA


2 643

1 180

687

573

189

12 1

947

364

239 226

100 17 1

346

141 123 68

8 4 3 -

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

Eastern Cape Region Tree Census by Age <5 Years (Ha)


Source: CGA

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1 5 9 1317212529333741 3 7 1115192327313539 4 8 1216202428323640 2 6 1014182226303541 7 1119

NAVEL LEMONS VALENCIA MANDARINS GRAPEFRUIT

Eastern Cape Region Tree Census Age Profile (Ha)


Source: CGA

2 630

459

1 417

216 221 288 6 9

5 544

1 448 1 857

851

384 527 472

1

5 573

2 519

423

1 609

653 332

18 16

13 746

4 426

3 697

2 676

1 257 1 147

495

27

-

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

Grand Total NAVEL MANDARINS VALENCIA CLEMENTINES LEMONS GRAPEFRUIT MIDSEASON

Northern & Western Cape Region Tree Census by Age (Ha)


38% 50% 11% 18% 31% 52% 35% 5% 60%8% 32% 60%10% 33% 57% 1% 95% 4%25% 46% 29%19% 40% 41%

Eureka 213Nadorcott 453

Orri 357

Tango 255

M7 109

Washington 67

Witkrans 58

Midknights 96 Nules 112


Source: CGA

1 644

846

340

174 135 131

9 6 2

868

515

142 105 86

9 8 3

104 56 33 15 13

-

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

Northern & Western Cape Region Tree Census by Age <5 Years (Ha)


Source: CGA

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1 5 9 1317212529333741 3 7 1115192327313540 4 8 1216202428323640 2 6 1014182226313539 5 9 1424

NAVEL MANDARINS VALENCIA LEMONS GRAPEFRUIT

Northern & Western Cape Region Tree Census Age Profile (Ha)


Source: CGA

11 497

2 234 1 789 3 989

2 944

203 287 15

40 695

15 673

8 922

4 910 5 016 5 317

694 45

19 262

8 355

5 849

804 1 591 1 748 836 64

71 454

26 262

16 559

9 703 9 551 7 269

1 818 125

-

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

Grand Total VALENCIA NAVEL MANDARINS LEMONS GRAPEFRUIT CLEMENTINES MIDSEASON

Total SA Tree Census by Age (Ha)


11% 54% 35% 31% 53% 17% 12% 36% 51%41% 52% 8%10% 60% 32% 16% 38% 4%63% 73% 24%16% 57% 27%

Star Ruby 194Cambria 456

Witkrans 408

M7 260

Midknight 780

Valencia Late 732

Bennie 233

Nadorcott 1

256

Orri 595

Nova 325

Eureka 2 237

Lisbon 315

Limoneira 135

Tarocco 9

Tomango 6Nules 163

Esbal 58


Source: CGA

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

Total SA Tree Census by Category by Region by Age (Ha)


Source: CGA

3 989

846 714 687

515 399 364

141 134 94 56 30

2 944

1 180

386 342 226

161 142 131 123 115 49 30

2 234

1 007

298 189 174 167 139 100 58 51 33

1 789

573

340 303 239

105 77 68 28

-

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

Total SA Tree Census by Category by Region Age <5 Years (Ha)


Source: CGA

2 630

1 180

687

573

189

1 492

846

340

174 131

1 274

1 007

161 94

12

1 146

399 386 303

58

957

714

115 77 51

929

364

239 226

100

790

342 298

134

15

770

515

142 105

8

-

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

Total SA Tree Census By Region by Category Age <5 Years (Ha)


Source: CGA

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

VALENCIA NAVEL MANDARINS LEMONS GRAPEFRUIT CLEMENTINES

Total SA Tree Census by Category by Age Profile (Ha)


Source: CGA

Historical & Forecast Export Volume

Source: PPECB / CGA

Supplier Region Product 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Est.2020 Growth

Potential3 Year Average

% Growth - 3 Year

ave. vs Growth

Potential

Grapefruit 598 075 478 651 590 099 409 869 539 670 550 000 600 000 513 213 17%

Lemons 6 312 585 5 658 218 7 031 574 8 631 156 8 073 992 9 220 000 10 500 000 7 912 241 33%

Navels 9 898 804 9 841 794 10 541 129 10 012 135 10 883 079 9 250 000 11 000 000 10 478 781 5%

Soft Citrus 2 569 500 2 675 268 3 383 502 3 425 394 4 321 031 4 600 000 5 500 000 3 709 976 48%

Valencias 8 039 540 8 847 441 9 705 184 10 033 055 8 394 987 8 750 000 10 000 000 9 377 742 7%

Total 27 418 504 27 501 372 31 251 488 32 511 609 32 212 759 32 370 000 37 600 000 31 991 952 18%

Grapefruit 13 500 000 12 000 000 14 400 000 15 000 000 12 150 000 13 829 000 15 000 000 13 850 000 8%

Lemons 2 806 932 3 456 017 4 381 776 4 505 160 5 040 460 6 500 000 7 000 000 4 642 465 51%

Navels 7 721 863 9 182 069 7 736 184 7 668 799 8 299 139 9 450 000 10 000 000 7 901 374 27%

Soft Citrus 1 020 412 1 618 432 1 567 189 1 893 509 2 131 174 2 446 000 3 000 000 1 863 957 61%

Valencias 33 500 000 37 200 000 35 600 000 36 700 000 28 500 000 35 800 000 38 000 000 33 600 000 13%

Total 58 549 207 63 456 518 63 685 149 65 767 468 56 120 773 68 025 000 73 000 000 61 857 797 18%

Grapefruit 584 238 617 232 722 868 764 371 1 108 320 1 000 000 1 000 000 865 186 16%

Lemons 1 369 601 1 477 657 1 725 068 1 892 673 1 918 654 2 150 000 2 500 000 1 845 465 35%

Navels 6 966 865 6 469 377 7 711 783 6 889 393 7 117 313 7 635 000 7 800 000 7 239 496 8%

Soft Citrus 4 038 824 4 140 769 4 979 970 4 665 574 5 731 984 6 200 000 7 000 000 5 125 843 37%

Valencias 4 662 524 4 821 204 5 512 043 5 450 570 4 860 554 5 500 000 5 500 000 5 274 389 4%

Total 17 622 052 17 526 239 20 651 732 19 662 581 20 736 825 22 485 000 23 800 000 20 350 379 17%

Grapefruit 14 682 313 13 095 883 15 712 967 16 174 241 13 797 990 15 379 000 16 600 000 15 228 399 9%

Lemons 10 489 118 10 591 892 13 138 418 15 028 989 15 033 106 17 870 000 20 000 000 14 400 171 39%

Navels 24 587 532 25 493 240 25 989 096 24 570 327 26 299 531 26 335 000 28 800 000 25 619 651 12%

Soft Citrus 7 628 736 8 434 469 9 930 661 9 984 477 12 184 189 13 246 000 15 500 000 10 699 776 45%

Valencias 46 202 064 50 868 645 50 817 227 52 183 625 41 755 541 50 050 000 53 500 000 48 252 131 11%

Total 103 589 763 108 484 129 115 588 369 117 941 659 109 070 357 122 880 000 134 400 000 114 200 128 18%

Southern Africa Citrus Production for Export (15kg Carton Equivalent)

Eastern Cape to PE &

Coega Ports

Northern Region to

Durban Port

Western/Northern Cape

to Cape Town Port

Southern Africa (Incl.

Zimbabwe & Swaziland)

Source: CGA

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Gra

pefr

uit

Lem

ons

Navels

Soft

Cit

rus

Vale

ncia

s

Tota

l

Gra

pefr

uit

Lem

ons

Navels

Soft

Cit

rus

Vale

ncia

s

Tota

l

Gra

pefr

uit

Lem

ons

Navels

Soft

Cit

rus

Vale

ncia

s

Tota

l

Gra

pefr

uit

Lem

ons

Navels

Soft

Cit

rus

Vale

ncia

s

Tota

l

Eastern Cape to PE & CoegaPorts

Northern Region to DurbanPort

Western/Northern Cape toCape Town Port

Southern Africa (Incl.Zimbabwe & Swaziland)

15 K

g E

qv.

Cart

ons

Millions

Production Forecast by Region by Category (15kg Carton Eqv.)

2014 2015 2016 2017 Est. 2020 Growth Potential


Source: PPECB / CGA


Exit Port Commodity 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Est.2020 Growth

Potential

3 Year

Average

%

Growth

Grapefruit 9 527 9 779 10 530 10 935 17 496 18 000 15 000 12 987 16%

Lemons 19 696 22 781 24 727 28 456 26 241 30 000 30 000 26 475 13%

Oranges 148 015 156 710 181 145 166 621 158 000 165 000 182 000 168 589 8%

Soft Citrus 72 380 71 689 79 065 78 476 93 000 98 000 105 000 83 514 26%

Total 249 619 260 959 295 467 284 487 294 737 311 000 332 000 280 305 18%

Grapefruit 153 052 228 366 195 084 206 217 178 086 210 000 206 000 193 129 7%

Lemons 36 042 43 949 54 775 55 582 63 000 68 000 75 000 57 786 30%

Oranges 499 895 540 046 514 264 532 460 458 000 545 000 560 000 501 575 12%

Soft Citrus 12 022 19 944 19 538 25 450 28 000 32 000 40 000 24 329 64%

Total 701 010 832 304 783 660 819 709 727 086 855 000 881 000 811 891 9%

Grapefruit 7 258 6 202 7 185 4 918 6 415 7 000 7 000 6 173 13%

Lemons 74 305 66 555 81 668 99 610 96 000 105 000 120 000 92 426 30%

Oranges 218 804 233 768 249 246 249 975 246 000 240 000 250 000 248 407 1%

Soft Citrus 26 172 29 469 39 044 40 325 54 000 58 000 65 000 44 456 46%

Total 326 539 335 993 377 142 394 828 402 415 410 000 442 000 369 321 20%

Grapefruit 187 988 253 375 212 798 222 070 201 997 235 000 228 000 212 288 7%

Lemons 130 379 133 426 161 371 183 648 185 241 203 000 225 000 176 753 27%

Oranges 903 817 961 410 947 815 955 435 862 000 950 000 992 000 921 750 8%

Soft Citrus 111 103 121 101 137 646 144 251 175 000 188 000 210 000 152 299 38%

Total 1 333 287 1 469 313 1 459 630 1 505 404 1 424 238 1 576 000 1 655 000 1 478 116 12%

Citrus Export Volume by Commodity by Load Port (Pallets)

CAPE TOWN

DURBAN

PORT

ELIZABETH/NGQURA

Southern Africa (Incl.

Swaziland & Zimbabwe

Source: CGA

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Gra

pefr

uit

Lem

ons

Ora

nges

Soft

Cit

rus

Tota

l

Gra

pefr

uit

Lem

ons

Ora

nges

Soft

Cit

rus

Tota

l

Gra

pefr

uit

Lem

ons

Ora

nges

Soft

Cit

rus

Tota

l

Gra

pefr

uit

Lem

ons

Ora

nges

Soft

Cit

rus

Tota

l

CAPE TOWN DURBAN PORT ELIZABETH/NGQURA Southern Africa (Incl.Swaziland & Zimbabwe

Pallets

Thousa

nds

Export Forecast by Region by Category (Pallets)

2014 2015 2016 2017 Estimates 2020 Growth Potential


Source: PPECB / CGA


Source: PPECB / CGA

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Conta

ineri

sed

Specia

lize

d R

eefe

r

Tota

l

Conta

ineri

sed

Specia

lize

d R

eefe

r

Tota

l

Conta

ineri

sed

Specia

lize

d R

eefe

r

Tota

l

Conta

ineri

sed

Specia

lize

d R

eefe

r

Tota

l

CAPE TOWN DURBAN PORT ELIZABETH/NGQURA Southern Africa (Incl.Swaziland & Zimbabwe

Pallets

Thousa

nds

Export Forecast by Port by Ship Mode (Pallets)

2014 2015 2016 2017 Est. 2020 Growth Projection

12,000 FEU - 15,600 FEU 30,750 FEU - 42,000 FEU 17,500 FEU - 21,700 FEU 60,000 FEU - 77,000 FEU


2017 = 13,800 FEU 2017 = 36,750 FEU 2017 = 19,500 FEU 2017 = 70,000 FEU

-

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

-

250

500

750

1 000

1 250

1 500

1 750

2 000

2 250

2 500

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Co

nta

iners

Acc

um

ula

tive

Co

nta

iners

per

Week

3 Yr Projection Accumulative 2016 Accumulative Ave. 2013 - 2015 Accumulative

3 Year Projection 2016 Ave. 2013 - 2015

Pome Fruit

Subtropical FruitStone Fruit

Container Volume Trend & Projections – Cape Town

Table GrapesTable Grap

esStone Fruit

Citrus Fruit

Container Volume Trend & Projections – Durban

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000

-

250

500

750

1 000

1 250

1 500

1 750

2 000

2 250

2 500

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Co

nta

iners

Acc

um

ula

tive

Co

nta

iners

per

Week



Citrus Fruit

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

-

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2 000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Co

nta

iners

Acc

um

ula

tive

Co

nta

iners

per

Week



Citrus Fruit

Container Volume Trend & Projections – PE / Coega

Pome Fruit

Stone Fruit

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Co

nta

iners

Acc

um

ula

tive

Co

nta

iners

per

Week



Citrus Fruit

Subtropical Fruit

Pome Fruit

Container Volume Trend & Projections – All Ports

Stone Fruit

Table Grapes

Table Grapes

Summary of 2017 Logistics Demands

2017 Production estimates predicts potential bumper citrus crop adding

pressure and demands on the logistics & Infrastructure.

Container lines will be required to plan equipment supply to the ports

accurately to ensure equipment meets the demand at each port. Critical

for Citrus, to bring in equipment earlier due to earlier production of

Lemons and Mandarin citrus types i.e. PE

If no bulk vessels call PE, could mean added demand on container

shipping from PE & Coega.

EC region could come under capacity constraints due to FPT facility

being closed. Citrus could therefore potentially be directed to Cape Town

and Durban ports for shipping.

Durban port could see bumper crop from the north adding demand on

cold store capacity. New cold stores built will assist to balance off

increased production.

There could well be a high demand for container exports in Durban, DCT

Pier 1 and Pier 2 will need to be briefed to ensure operations are not

hindered by DCT poor operational performance.

DCT pier 1 and Pier 2 will need to ensure effective planning is done to

streamline [reefer] container flows in the region and in particular to the

container terminals.

DCT Pier 1 auxiliary plug-in points may need to be brought in earlier this

season.

Thank You / Dankie

M Brooke: Logistics Development Manager

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

citrus tree plantings leading to substantial production growth

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