cities regrowing smaller facing the challenge of shrinking...

Prof. Dr. Thorsten Wiechmann 16.02.2011 Cities Regrowing Smaller

Cities Regrowing Smaller – Facing the Challenge of Shrinking Cities

Prof. Dr. Thorsten Wiechmann, TU Dortmund

Chair of COST Action TU 0803 »Cities Regrowing Smaller«

Shrinkage in Europe - 16 Feb 2011

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Cities Regrowing Smaller (CIRES) – COST Action TU0803

Fostering Knowledge on Regeneration Strategies in Shrinking Cities across Europe

www.shrinkingcities.eu




1 Introduction: unresolved issues of shrinking cities

2 Eight Selected Cases: grounding the debate

3 Lessons drawn from the cases

4 Concluding remarks




1 Introduction

Shrinking Cities – selected unresolved issues

The state of knowledge: causes, patterns, and effects

The political dimension: the significance of shrinkage

The responses of planners: promising strategies to deal with shrinkage

Four lines of argument

Still, we know little about the extension and spreading of urban shrinkage; in particular we lack a cross-national comparative perspective. Validity and comparability of existing data is questionable.

Shrinking Cities as such are not new, but the long term influence of low fertility rates demands for a change of perspective and a distinction between demographic decrease and economic decline.

In shrinking cities planning practice is ahead of planning research. We need to transform planning of shrinkage into theory of shrinkage.

Planning is traditionally growth oriented. Planning for shrinkage demands a paradigm change – IOW: is thrown into a state of crisis



Source: Wiechmann

2 Eight Selected Cases: The object of study

Dessau

Regional center in Saxony-Anhalt

Population losses (-28%) since 1989 due to out-migration and low birth rates

Demolition of housing blocks with state support

IBA Urban Redevelopment 2010: Urban Core Areas – Landscape Zones

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

110000

120000

Source: IBA Urban Redevelopment 2010




Leipzig

Major city in Saxony

Long term shrinkage 1965 – 2000 (-39%) due to out-migration and low birth rates

Since 2000 new growth due to a positive migratory balance and trends towards reurbanization

Early restructuring programs by the city planning department

450.000

470.000

490.000

510.000

530.000

550.000

570.000

590.000

610.000

630.000

650.000

Source: Stadt Leipzig

Stadthäuser – New Townhouses




Duisburg

Major city in the Ruhr Area

Long term shrinkage since 1961 (-26%) due to economic decline (heavy industries)

Temporary growth in early 1990ies

Large distressed neighborhoods in proximity to industrial areas (north)

New developments at the inland harbor and on green fields (south)

450.000

470.000

490.000

510.000

530.000

550.000

570.000

590.000

610.000

630.000

650.000

Duisburg-Bruckhausen: Housing Area with high vacancy rate – future green belt

Source: Stadt Duisburg




Taranto

Industrial city in Apulia

Population decrease since 1980 (-21%) due to low fertility and out-migration

Steel and iron foundries, oil refineries, chemical plants, commercial and military ports – number of jobs declined

„High environmental risk area” - most polluted city in western Europe (carbon monoxide, dioxin, etc.)

150.000

160.000

170.000

180.000

190.000

200.000

210.000

220.000

230.000

240.000

250.000

Source: Wiechmann

Taranto: Urban structure

Urban regeneration projects:

• Tamburi quarter (78 m € + 46 m €)

• Salinella quarter (13 m €)

• Città Vecchia (6,2 m €)

• Zona Franca Urbana (Urban free zone with tax incentives)




Porto

Major city in northern Portugal

Population decrease of –30% since 1991 due to metropolitan decentralization of housing and industries as well as low fertility rates

Historic center (UNESCO world heritage) with high vacancies, many houses in poor condition

SRU Master Plan and Historic Center Management Plan seek for the re-population of the historic center

150000

170000

190000

210000

230000

250000

270000

290000

310000

330000

350000

Source: Wiechmann




Youngstown, Ohio

US rust belt city and traditional center of steel production

Population decrease since the 1960ies (–56%) due to the decline of U.S. steel industry

The city was forced to redefine itself

Problem: maintaining a largely oversized infrastructure

50.000

60.000

70.000

80.000

90.000

100.000

110.000

120.000

130.000

140.000

150.000

Source: Wiechmann / Pallagst (2009)

„Youngstown 2010” (in 2005):

Vision: accepting shrinkage

Smaller city, new economy, improved image and quality of life

Youngstown has spent $5.3 million to implement the plan: 2,000 houses were razed, five bridges refurbished, and seven brownfield sites remediated




Flint, Michigan

Birthplace of General Motors and symbol of the collapse of the US auto industry

Strongest population decline in large U.S. cities; since 1960 the city lost 43% of its population

Neighborhoods along the former industrial sites show vacancy rates above 50%

High socioeconomic and racial segregation

Source: Volkmann

50.000

70.000

90.000

110.000

130.000

150.000

170.000

190.000




Toyama

Major city on the north coast of Honshu; center of pharmaceutical industry, IT and biotechnology industry

Population decrease in prefecture stronger than in the city; -2% since 1985

Predominantly due to declining birthrates

2005, six neighboring towns incorporated

300000

320000

340000

360000

380000

400000

420000

440000

460000

480000

500000

Source: Seta 2009

Revitalization Master Plan (2007):

Vision: revitalization without population growth

„Stick and Dumplings”

Three priorities: - Promotion of Inner-city Residence - (Re-)creation of Commercial Core - Improving Public Transportation

Toyama 1972 Toyama 2010



3 Lessons

What did these eight cases have in common?

All cities lost residents; population decrease started already in the 20th century (between 1960 and 1990)

All cities have an ageing population

All cities show housing vacancy rates above the fluctuation reserve

All cities face a deteriorating financial basis

All cities have troubles to maintain the oversized infrastructure

All cities struggled to accept shrinkage

What are major differences between these eight cases?

The causes of population decrease are different: economic decline, out-migration, low fertility rates, suburbanization, decentralization, environmental pollution, etc.

Extend and spatial pattern of vacancies differ

Some cities face long term economic decline while others are economically competitive

Some cities deliberately plan for a smaller city (Dessau, Youngstown, Toyama) where as other still aim for demographic growth (Porto, Taranto, Duisburg)



3 Lessons

‚Shrinking Cities’: irreversible decline or a cyclical phenomenon?

Core

Agglomeration

Hinterland

Phases

Subphases

Popula

tion C

hange

Urbanization Cycle according to Leo van den Berg 1982



3 Lessons

(Demographic) Shrinkage ≠ Cyclical Phenomenon !

(Demographic) Shrinkage ≠ (Economic) Decline !

Population decrease may be caused by suburbanization

Population decrease may be caused by out-migration of young job seeking residents

However, in large parts of Europe and East Asia the demographic transition is – in the long run – the main driver

The second demographic transition (Lesthaeghe / Kaa 1986)

began in the mid-1960s and accelerated during the 1980s.

marked by declining rates of married couples, rising divorce rates, an increasing age of marriage, a severely falling fertility, and the substitution of the child with the couple as the main family element.

Since the 1970s as the pill took effect birth rates declined far below the replacement level of the population.

The theory describes the uncoupling of economic wealth and population growth.



3 Lessons

The issue of defining the term ‚Shrinking Cities’

Though the academic debate on shrinking cities is still in its infancy we find a multitude of definitions (see Avila de Sousa 2010):

Consensus on the demographic characteristic: decreasing population

Quantitative aspect differs widely (with regard to applicable threshold as well as whether relative shrinkage is included)

No consensus if the definition should comprise other aspects of a structural and multidimensional phenomenon

In the COST Action a ‚shrinking city’ is defined as …

a densely populated urban area with a minimum population of 5,000 residents

• that has faced a population loss in large parts of it

• for more than 2 years and

• is undergoing transformations with some symptoms of a structural crisis.

Based on: SCiRN 2005



3 Lessons

Typologies ‚Shrinking Cities’

Most of the few so far proposed typologies so far are based on causes

Suburba-

nisation

Industrial

Transformation

Selective

Collapses

Politcal

Strategies

Economical

Oil crisis

Dot-com Hype

Environmental

(Natural) Disaster

Pollution

Epidemics

Political

Banishment

War

Famine

Wiechmann 2006

Controlled

(Re)Settlements

Hollowing Out,

'Doghnut'

Sprawl

Old Industrial Areas

Rust Belts

(Steel, Coal)

Textile Industries

Harbours, DockyardsFormer controlled

Colonisation Areas

Depopulation AreasAbandonment of

Mining Areas

…

Segregation

…

…

…



3 Lessons


Most of the few so far proposed typologies so far are based on causes

Type Characteristics Underlying Causes Selected Contemporary Examples Policy Implications (examples)

Shrinkage is Imposed Conflicts/war

Political or economic reforms

Depletion of resources

Political and military conflicts

Spatial/Administrative Reforms —

national govt.

Uneconomic exploitation of natural

resources

Beirut, Lebanon; Phnom Penh

Chinese county towns & villages

Nauru & other mining cities—

including resource towns

Conflict resolution

Modification of administrative

reforms

New technology; Efficient

methods of resource extraction

Shrinkage due to

comparative

disadvantages

Lack of economic

opportunities/diversity

Lifestyle attractions

Climatic conditions

Infrastructure provisions

Core/periphery drift Globalization

De-industrialization

Re-industrialization

(rise of Regional inequalities;

Knowledge economy)

Climatic differences

Metropolitan lifestyle

Poland relative to EU

S. Korea -- regions outside of Seoul

Metro region

France (non metro Paris)

Scotland

NE China old industrial centers

Rust belt (USA)

Reinforce regional resilience

Ensure embeddedness of

economic activities

Regional decentralization policies

Shrinkage due to societal /

global changes

Absolute decline of population

Ageing population

Climate change

Low birth rate (fertility decline)

Low population replacement rate

Population structure “Demographic

onus”

Global climate changes

Dresden, Germany

Kyoto, Japan

Australian outback towns

Population policy

Urban amenities/infrastructures

investments

Global climate policies/programs

Source: Wu et al. 2008



3 Lessons


Most of the few so far proposed typologies are based on causes

With regard to Europe, causal typologies focus on three development paths:

Suburbanization

• „hollowing out”, flight of people and jobs, urban sprawl

• decentralization

Economic Restructuring

• shift away from industrial-based economy

• old industrialized rust-belts

• peripheral rural areas and small towns

Demographics

• low fertility rates; negative natural population development

• immigrant settlement patterns: tendency of immigrants to settle in

larger, growing cities



3 Lessons


Only recently, cluster analyses aim at classifying shrinking cities:

Germany • Bertelsmann Foundation, 2005 ff. • 2,971 municipalities (> 5,000 res.); 220 indicators • information system for local and regional stakeholder

• 15 clusters on municipality level (n=2,971)

Portugal • Silvia Avila de Sousa, 2010 • 3 levels: cities, municipalities, extended regions; 33 indicators

• 3 clusters on city level (n=21)

France • Manuel Wolff, 2011 • 354 Aire Urbaine, 14 indicators • 5 clusters on FUA level (n=354)



3 Lessons

Availability and validity of data on ‚Shrinking Cities’

What kind of data would be needed?

• Population development in urban areas

births, deaths, migration, …

• Socio-economic transformations

vacancy rates, land use changes, GDP, employment, income …

time series on small scale!

comparative statistics (interregional and international)

Source: Wiechmann / Wolff 2010



3 Lessons

Availability and validity of data on ‚Shrinking Cities’

What kind of data is available in Europe? (see Wolff 2011)

• Eurostat

• NUTS 1, 2, 3 regional scale not adequate to analyze cities

• LAU 1, 2 low comparability and validity

• Urban Audit with 357 (larger) cities not up-to-date, large gaps,

lack of metadata

• National statistics

• different standards, methods, and variables

• heterogeneous time-reference of existing data

• different operationalization of ‚cities’

• different thresholds

• in some countries poor availability of socio-economic data

Sourc

e:

Wolff

2009



3 Lessons

Lack of instruments to deal with ‚Shrinking Cities’

Planning shrinkage - the new challenge

• Traditional planning is based on growth expectations

• There is a necessity to realign the planning system

• Contracting processes are complex, difficult and ‚politically indigestible’

Traditional ‘Growth Planning’

• Objective: Growth

• Prior Task: to reduce shortcomings by

new offers, to canalise investments

• Governance by physical plans

• Orientation on new construction sites and

new buildings

• Clear, binding guidelines (e.g. type and

extend of use)

• Spatial separation of housing, work,

shopping and recreation

• Local planning autonomy

Sustainable ‘Stock Development’

• Objective: Revision, stabilisation and

maintenance of regeneration capacity

• Prior Task: to reduce shortcomings in

existing structures, prevent disinvestment

• Process support (guidance, moderation)

• Orientation on the reutilization of buildings

and creative demolition

• Alternative development opportunities,

multifunctional architecture

• Efficient support funds through strategic

frameworks and cross-sectoral solutions

• Intermunicipal co-operation Sourc

e:

Wie

chm

ann 2

003



3 Lessons

Lack of instruments to deal with ‚Shrinking Cities’

Leipzig: Conceptual District Plans

Dessau: Urban Core Areas – Landscape Zones

Youngstown 2010: Accepting Shrinkage

Toyama: Master plan Revitalization without growth

Flint: Landbank



4 Concluding remarks

‚Shrinking Cities’: Facing the challenge

Do you see the dancer as spinning clockwise or counterclockwise?

It just depends on how YOU see it !

cities regrowing smaller facing the challenge of shrinking...

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