citics 2016 financial performance presentation · 2017-03-24 · shanghai & shenzhen 300 -11.3%...
TRANSCRIPT
CITICS 2016 Financial Performance Presentation
Mar.24, 2017
1 Chinese Securities Industry Overview
2 CITICS Financial Performance
3 CITICS Business Highlights
3
Content
1 Chinese Securities Industry Overview
Overview of Chinese Capital Market in 2016
4
China’s Capital Market Indices Average Daily Turnover in the Equity Market 1 2
Stock Indices
Shanghai Composite Index -12.3%
Shanghai & Shenzhen 300 -11.3%
Hang Seng Index +0.4%
Bond Index
China Bond Wealth Index +1.3%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
305.8bn
in 2014
1,076.5bn
in 2015
531.5bn
in 2016
Margin Finance Balance in the Market 3 Stock-Pledged Repo Balance in the Market 4
337.5
708.7
1,221.6
0
500
1,000
1,500
2014 End 2015 End 2016 End
1,026.0 1,174.3
939.2
0
500
1,000
1,500
2014 End 2015 End 2016 End
-20% y-o-y +72% y-o-y
RMB Bn
RMB Bn RMB Bn
Source: Internal.
Overview of Chinese Capital Market in 2016
5
AUM of Securities Industry AUM of Fund Industry 3 4
8.0 11.9
17.0
0
5
10
15
20
2014 End 2015 End 2016 End
+44% y-o-y
6.7 8.4 9.2
0
10
20
2014 End 2015 End 2016 End
+9% y-o-y
Capital Raised in the Equity Market 1 Capital Raised in the Bond Market 2
0.9
1.7 2.1
0
1
2
3
2014 2015 2016
+28% y-o-y
6.2
11.5 14.9
0
5
10
15
2014 2015 2016
+29% y-o-y RMB Tn RMB Tn
RMB Tn RMB Tn
Source: Internal.
Assets Overview: Client Assets Reflected Market Volatility
6
Total Assets Total Liabilities 1 2
1.1 1.6 2.9
4.9 4.4 4.3 0.6 0.5 1.2
3.4 2.1 1.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
2012 End 2013 End 2014 End Jun 2015 End
2015 End 2016 End
Own Assets Client Assets
0.6 1.0 2.0 3.6 2.9 2.7 0.6
0.5 1.2
3.4
2.1 1.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
2012 End 2013 End 2014 End Jun 2015 End
2015 End 2016 End
Own Assets Client Assets
4.1
8.3 7.0
1.2
6.4 5.0
2.1 1.7 3.2 1.5
Net Assets 3 Leverage Ratio 4
0.50 0.52 0.92
1.30 1.50 1.64
0
1
2
2012 End 2013 End 2014 End Jun 2015 End
2015 End 2016 End
1.6 2.1
3.2 3.7 3.0 2.7
2.5 2.8 4.4 6.4
4.4 3.5
0
5
10
2012 End 2013 End 2014 End Jun 2015 End
2015 End 2016 End
Adjusted Leverage Total Leverage
5.8 4.2
RMB Tn RMB Tn
RMB Tn Multiples
Source: Internal.
Industry Profitability:Back to Normal Level
7
Total Revenue
ROE
Net Profit 1
3
2
Net Profit Margin 4
283.6
129.5 159.2 260.1
575.2
328.0
0
200
400
600
2007 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
132.7
32.9 44.0 96.5
244.8
123.4
0
100
200
300
2007 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
60.0%
4.9% 6.1% 11.8%
19.9% 8.1%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2007 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
47%
25% 28% 37% 43% 38%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2007 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-43% y-o-y -50% y-o-y RMB Bn RMB Bn
Source: Internal.
8
Content
2 CITICS Financial Performance
1. CITICS Profitability
9
46.5%
4.9% 6.0% 12.2% 16.6%
7.4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
2007 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Revenue 1 Net Profit 2
30.9
11.7 16.1
29.2
56.0
38.0
0
20
40
60
2007 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
ROE 3 Net Profit Margin 4
12.4
4.2 5.2 11.3
19.8
10.4
0
10
20
30
40
2007 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
40% 36% 32% 39% 37% 31%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2007 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-32% y-o-y -48% y-o-y RMB Bn RMB Bn
Source:Company Annual Report Note:The calculation of net profit margin in both 2015 and 2016 excluded the impact from
commodity subsidiary.
64% 63%
74%
22% 21%
21%
14% 16%
5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2014 2015 2016
Capital-efficient
Flow-based
Fee-based
2. Balanced Revenue Mix
10
CITICS Revenue Composition
Source: Internal.
18.7 33.2
25.1
0
20
40
60
2014 2015 2016
6.4 11.2 7.2
0
20
40
60
2014 2015 2016
-24%
-36%
4.0 8.6 1.6 0
20
40
60
2014 2015 2016
-81% RMB Bn
RMB Bn
RMB Bn
11
3. Cost Analysis
Cost to Revenue Ratio 1
Compensation to Revenue Ratio 2
According to A-share
reporting, our cost to
revenue was 45% as of the
end of 2016, a 9% jump but
modestly lower than the level
of 2014.(47%)
According to A-share
reporting, our compensation
ratio was 30% as of the end
of 2016, a 4% jump but
modestly lower than the level
of 2014(32%)
67% 63% 64% 72%
50% 47% 36%
45%
0%
50%
100%
2013 2014 2015 2016
H-share Reporting A-share Reporting
25% 24% 20% 23% 32% 32% 26% 30%
0%
50%
100%
2013 2014 2015 2016
H-share Reporting A-share Reporting
Source:Company Annual Report
12
4. Capital Strength
34.8 44.3
94.5 93.5
0
20
40
60
80
100
2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End
87.7 99.1
139.1 142.7
0
50
100
150
2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End
Net Assets of Parent Company
Net Capital of Parent Company
Our net assets was 142.7bn as
of the end of 2016, a 3% jump y-
o-y, mainly due to net profit.
The net capital of our parent
company was 93.5bn.
+3%
1
2
RMB Bn
RMB Bn
Source:Company Annual Report Note:The figure as of 2015 end has been restated according to <The methodology of risk control ratios for securities firms> (2016 revision)
5. Leverage
13
Total Leverage 1
3.7 3.9
3.3
3.2
2
3
4
5
2014 2015 Jun End 2015 End 2016 End
CITICS Chinese Securities Industry Average Top 8 peers
Multiples
Source:Company Annual Report
6. Domestic and Overseas Benchmarking
14 Source:Company Disclosure
Our Revenue as % of Top 10 peers 1
Domestic Benchmarking
Our Profit as % of Top 10 peers 2 Our Assets as % of Top 10 peers 3
Revenue(Goldman Sachs/CITICS) 4
Overseas Benchmarking
Profit(Goldman Sachs/CITICS) 5 AUM as of 2016 End 6
17.4% 19.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2015 2016
15.1% 15.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2015 2016
10.0
5.6
0
5
10
15
2011-2015 average 2016
5.5 4.7
0
5
10
15
2011-2015 average 2016
1,380
417 404 403
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley
Nomura CITICS
USD Bn
15.8% 16.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2015 End 2016 End
Multiples Multiples
15
Content
3 CITICS Business Highlights
China-related M&A
1. Investment Banking:Maintained the Leading Position in Market Share
Ranked No.1 in Equity Underwriting Ranked 2nd in Bond Underwriting
Rank Underwriter Market share
1 CITICS 11.5%
2 Huatai 7.0%
3 Guosen 6.8%
4 Guotai Junan 6.2%
5 China Sec. 5.9%
Market Equity Underwriting
Amount
Market Bond Underwriting
Amount
Market Overview 1 2 3
5
16
Rank Underwriter Market share
1 China Sec. 3.3%
2 CITICS 2.6%
3 Guotai Junan 2.4%
4 CMS 1.9%
5 Haitong 1.5%
+28%
+29%
Ranked No.1 in IPO Numbers 4
6.2
11.5
14.9
0
5
10
15
2014 2015 2016
0.9
1.7
2.1
0
1
2
3
2014 2015 2016
RMB Tn
Source: Bloomberg. CITICS ECM and DCM monthly report.
CITICS Highlights
Domestic The size of A-share major assets restructuring
transactions completed ranked 1st
Cross-border
Announced global merger and acquisition
transactions involving PRC enterprises ranked 2nd
among Chinese peers
Regulatory
Recognition
Awarded an A rating for the financial advisory
business 4 years in a row
Rank Advisor Market Share
1 Goldman Sachs 9.9%
2 Morgan Stanley 8.9%
3 CICC 8.4%
4 CITICS 7.4%
5 JP Morgan 6.3%
RMB Tn
Rank Underwriter IPO Numbers
1 CITICS 19
2 Guangfa 16
3 China Sec. 15
4 CMS 12
5 Essence Sec. 12
2. Brokerage:Transforming to Wealth Management
Average Commission Rate in
the Market
Market Overview 1
17
309.8
1,076.5
531.5
0
500
1,000
1,500
2014 2015 2016
-51%
Market Average Daily Turnover
RMB Bn
bps
5.27 4.07 3.75
0
5
10
2014 2015 2016
Stabilizing Market Share Assets under Custody 3 2
2.8
3.9 4.3
0
1
2
3
4
5
2014 End 2015 End 2016 End
+10%
CITICS Average Commission Rate Cross-Border Institutional Clients 4 5
28 48 49
0 50
100 150
2014 End 2015 End 2016 End
No. of Clients
-8% 135 139 140
0 50
100 150
2014 End 2015 End 2016 End
QFII
RQFII
RMB Tn
bps
6.91
5.12 4.04
0
5
10
2014 2015 2016
-21%
6.46% 6.43% 5.72%
0%
5%
10%
2014 2015 2016
4.93% 5.12% 5.44%
0%
5%
10%
2014 2015 2016
2 2 2
5 5 2
Turnover
Ranking
Brokerage
Commission
Ranking
Source:internal
755.0 1,071.3
1,815.2
0
1,000
2,000
2014 End 2015 End 2016 End
3. Asset Management:AUM Increased
Market Overview
Total AUM of Securities Firms
1
18
Total AUM of Fund Industry
+44%
8.0
11.9
17.0
0
5
10
15
20
2014 End 2015 End 2016 End
6.7 8.4 9.2
0
10
20
2014 End 2015 End 2016 End
RMB Bn
RMB Bn
178.0
412.0
610.0
0
500
1,000
2014 End 2015 End 2016 End
458.4 864.4 1,005.8
0
500
1,000
1,500
2014 End 2015 End 2016 End
Asset Management Fee
China AMC AUM
Total AUM & Active AUM 2 3
5
+69%
+48%
+16%
China AMC Management Fee 4
0.81
1.75 2.10
0
1
2
3
2014 2015 2016
3.24 3.99 3.90
0
1
2
3
4
5
2014 2015 2016
RMB Bn RMB Bn
RMB Bn RMB Bn
Market share 2016 2015 "+/-"
Equity 11.1% 10.1% 1.0%
Hybrid 5.6% 5.3% 0.3%
Source:internal
+20%
+9%
19.0
10.0
0
10
20
2015 2016
(0.27)
(3.39) (4)
(3)
(2)
(1)
0
2015 2016
1.1 5.1
0
10
20
2015 2016
4. Equity Derivatives
19
Fin
an
cia
l Mark
et M
an
ag
em
en
t Co
mm
ittee
OTC Derivatives Equity Financing
Customer
Needs
Instruments
& Products
• Serve financial institutions, hedge
fund, enterprise, HNWI and retail
clients.
• Offer client risk management
solutions, wealth management,
global asset allocation and enterprise
capital operation.
Structured Products
OTC Option Flow Trading
Corporate Risk Management
Solution
• Serve shareholders, senior
executives and ESOP(Employee
Stock Ownership Program).
• Offer clients existing equity
solutions and financing
instruments
Equity Collateralized Financing
Equity Incentive Financing
Mezzanine/Cross-border
Financing
• Offer market-making services for
exchange fund products and
options.
• Offer liquidity market-making and
arbitrage strategies for cross-
market, cross-assets and cross-
products activities.
Exchange option contract
market-making
ETF/Money Market Market-
Making
Other Market-Making
Strategies
OTC derivative trading amount
of 109.8bn
Core market-maker of 50ETF
ranking 1st.
The market share of Stock-
pledged financing was 6.39%
among the 1st tier.
Market-Making
Stock-Pledged Option Delta TRS Market-Making
29.6 39.4
0 10 20 30 40 50
2015 2016
+33% -47% +349%
RMB Bn RMB Bn RMB Bn RMB Bn
Source:internal
1 2 3
4 5 6 7
5. Fixed Income
Business Highlights
20
ABS
4.70% 4.72%
5.62%
4%
5%
5%
6%
6%
2014 2015 2016
Interest Rate Bond
Market Share
Sales
475.1 522.1 441.4
0
200
400
600
2014 2015 2016
Trading
-1.53% 0.00%
4.90%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
China Bond Composite Index
Fixed Income Fund Average
Yield
Our Bond Trading Yield
New Business Initiatives
Integrate research and investment;
Full coverage of industrial chain;
Properly manage business and risk.
Cross-Border TRS
Convertible Bond
Business Scale
Term:6 months
Our annualized return:3%
FX Application
Regulatory communication;
Platform build-up;
Streamline FX business needs
Model design.
Overseas
Set up convertible trading team
Market-Making
Leading position in USD and
RMB bond trading turnover
Structured Products
USD 5.3bn trading turnover
Offer leveraged financing of
USD 1.5bn for clients
Trading
Apply CDS, FX, commodity
and equity index futures to
hedge risk
Credit Bond Amount
Ranking 2nd
among peers
Risk Management
BV01
At 4mn
Liquidity Support
Daily financing amount of
49bn
Credit Research team
build-up
Recruit talents
Smooth the dialog among
research, trading and risk
management
Strengthen enterprise
credit field research
Fin
an
cia
l Mark
et M
an
ag
em
en
t Co
mm
ittee
Source:internal
RMB Bn
6. Margin Finance
Peers Analysis 3
21
33.4
72.1 74.0 62.6
0
50
100
150
2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End
346.5
1,025.7 1,177.5
938.8
0
500
1,000
1,500
2013 End 2014 End 2015 End 2016 End
Industry Balance
CITICS Balance
1
2
-20%
-15%
+196%
+116% +3%
+15%
RMB Bn
Rank Brokers
2016
Balance
(RMB Bn)
2015
Balance
(RMB Bn)
+/-
1 CITICS 62.6 74.0 -15%
2 Guotai
Junan 57.7 72.5 -20%
3 Huatai 55.1 66.1 -17%
4 Shenwan
Hongyuan 54.5 72.3 -25%
5 Guangfa 54.1 66.9 -19%
Source:internal
RMB Bn
7. Goldstone as a Major Revenue Contributor
22
2.57 1.29
3.24
0 1 2 3 4 5
2014 2015 2016
Goldstone Financial Performance from 2014-2016
Total Revenue
1.64 0.41
1.67
0 1 2 3 4 5
2014 2015 2016
Net Profit
100%
Goldstone
100% 100% 100% 100%
Capital
Source
and
investment
Own Capital
Equity
Investment
Private Equity
Pre-IPO minority
interest
Private Fund
Acquisition to
control
Private Fund
REITs
Private Fund
FOF
60%
Private Fund
10 AUM as of
2016 End
(RMB Bn)
16.8 5.0 18 2.3 1.8
RMB Bn RMB Bn
Haorui Runhui Goldstone Fund
Management
CITIC Buyout
Fund
Jinshang
(Tianjin) Sanxia
Source:internal
23
8. International Expansion
On Dec.25th,2016 S&P maintained BBB rating and changed the outlook
from negative to stable. Overseas Credit
Rating Improved On Feb.24th,2017 Moody’s maintained Baa1 rating and changed the
outlook from negative to stable.
Best Sales Team in Asia-Pac
(ex.Japan & Australia)
Investment Banking
3
1
ECM:11 IPOs and 13 follow-ons
DCM: 16 bond underwritings
M&A: 13 projects
One Belt One Road: over 40
projects excluding Hong
Kong & Australia from 2015
to 2016.
Ran
k Teams Market Share
1 CLSA 16.4%
2 HSBC 16.0%
3 UBS 9.8%
Best Sales Team in Japan 4
Ran
k Teams Market Share
1 Nomura 17.7%
2 Daiwa 15.0%
3 CLSA 9.3%
Equity Underwriting in Asia-Pac
(ex.Japan) 2
Rank Teams Market Share
1 Morgan Stanley 7.6%
2 JP Morgan 5.0%
3 UBS 4.9%
4 CITI 4.6%
5 Goldman Sachs 3.5%
9 CLSA 2.9%
IB Projects in 2016 1
Research & Sales 2
CITIC CLSA
Strengthen overseas competitiveness
Optimize management overhead
Improve business coordination
Source:《Asiamoney》, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s website, internal
24
9. Comprehensive Risk Management Framework
Source:internal
VaR 1
Market Risk
Interest Rate Sensitivity(-25BP)
Bond Holdings by Ratings (Onshore) 1
Credit Risk
Risk Management and Measures
Credit Risk Management system
includes: Due Diligence, Internal Credit
Rating, Limit Setting & Monitoring
2
2 Control Procedures 3
Operational Risk
To Prevent Risk via New Product
Approval Procedure, review of workflow &
design of control steps;
To Mitigate Risk via Incident Reporting,
Mitigation Action Recommendation and
Tracking
To Flag Potential Risk via day-to-day KRI
Monitoring
To Promote Risk Awareness via trainings
and case study
0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.14 0.17
0.02 0.02 0.05 0.06
0.08 0.06
-
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
2014 Jun End
2014 End 2015 Jun End
2015 End 2016 Jun End
2016 End
Revenue Equity
-
50.0
100.0
2014 Jun End
2014 End 2015 Jun End
2015 End 2016 Jun End
2016 End
Sovereign AAA AA A A-1 Others
74.3
50.6
73.6 70.8 82.4 76.5
Sovereign and AAA accounted for 55% of the total
Assets over Liability 2016 2015
Margin Finance 276% 284%
Outright Repo 228% 263%
Stock Based Loans 273% 432%
Total Return Swaps 228% 211%
RMB Bn
RMB Bn RMB Bn
0.12
0.37
0.69
0.39
0.24
0.18
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
2014 Jun End 2014 End 2015 Jun End 2015 End 2016 Jun End 2016 End
VaR-Equity
VaR-IR
VaR-FX
VaR
25
10. Abundant Financing Tools and Healthy Regulatory Ratios
Financing Activities in 2016 Terms Dispersion of Liabilities (excluding inter-bank lending and repo)
As of the end of 2016, our allocable capital was 81.2bn and net capital reached 93.5bn.
Liquidity reserve amounted to 36.5bn and regulatory ratio was well above regulatory limit.
The higher proportion of mid-long term liabilities indicated lower solvent pressure from short-term
liabilities.
The short-term liabilities like beneficiaries certificates can be issued on a rolling basis and there was
still room for the existing amount to reach that limit.
1 2
Liquidity Coverage Ratio Net Stable Funding Ratio 4
148% 167%
0%
100%
200%
2015 End 2016 End
Regulatory Limit 100%
141% 143%
0%
100%
200%
2015 End 2016 End
3
Credit Line by Commercial Banks 5
RMB Bn
4.6 22.0 13.0 15.6
60.7
0 20 40 60 80
100
Less than 1 month
1 month to 3 months
3 months to 6 months
6 months to 1 year
more than 1 year
Regulatory Limit 100%
As of the end of 2016, we have been
granted the amount of 363bn from 102
banks.
Source:internal
RMB Bn InstrumentsIncremental
s in 2016
Balance as of
2016 End
Equity
FinancingFollow-on/Convertibles /
Shareholders'
Equity over
140bn
1、Corporate Bond
(Public/Private
Placement)
2、Surbonidated Bond
17.0 61.5
Short-Term
Debt
Financing
1.Beneficiary
certificates
2.Commercial Paper
3.Gold leasing
.etc
103.3 55.3
Overseas
Debt
Financing
(USD Bn)
USD Bond / 1.45
Note:The amount of beneficiary certificates and commercial paper are
caluculated on accumulated basis, thus the results will be greater than the year
end balance
Mid-long
Term Debt
Financing
26
Thank You!