circuits to packets - policy and regulation for the ip transition
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
CIRCUITS TO PACKETS ITU Telecom World Doha, 7th December 2014
MARTIN GEDDES FOUNDER & PRINCIPAL MARTIN GEDDES CONSULTING LTD
With annotations
![Page 2: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
What is this presentation
about?
![Page 3: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Packets can mean voice
quality problems
1
![Page 4: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Regulators have a role in
managing quality
2
![Page 5: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
It is time to consider new
commercial and technical models
3
![Page 6: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
1 2 3
![Page 7: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Packets can mean
quality problems
1
![Page 8: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
|8
Phone calls:
basic facts
![Page 9: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
|9
IPX
High perceived
value The first application of
networks is usually voice, and take-up among
network users is typically close to 100%
![Page 10: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
|10
Failure is very visible
Even short failures are very obvious. The endowment effect means that losing the
quality level you have become accustomed to causes great dissatisfaction. This can create a
crisis of legitimacy for regulators.
![Page 11: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
|11
Low data volume
Everyone knows that voice doesn’t use much ‘bandwidth’, but that isn’t really the issue.
![Page 12: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
|12
High quality
need
![Page 13: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
|13
14/12/2014 | ©2014 Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd
Every application, including voice, has a ‘budget’ for quality.
![Page 14: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Time
One part of the ‘budget’ is the end-to-end packet delay
![Page 15: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Variability
The other is the amount of variability in loss and delay,
since even the cleverest software cannot adapt if this
is too high.
![Page 16: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
|16
Circuits
In the world of circuits, we reserve capacity for individual calls.
![Page 17: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
TDM circuits… (Time Division Multiplexing)
![Page 18: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Zero Variability
You aren’t competing with other users, so you
experience total isolation from what everyone else is doing on the network.
![Page 19: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
…to packet-based statistical multiplexing
![Page 20: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
MORE DEMANDS ON OUR
‘TIME BUDGET’
2G, 3G, 4G OTT WiFi
![Page 21: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
|21
14/12/2014 | ©2014 Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd
Packet world
More Variability
![Page 22: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
|22
So why use packets?
![Page 23: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
|23
Money is the answer, what is your question?
— Richard Shockey
![Page 24: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
|24
14/12/2014 | ©2014 Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd
Fill the silences
We long ago discovered we could pack in about 30% more
calls into a TDM circuit by filling the silences in our speech.
![Page 25: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Intensify resource sharing
Packet networks take ‘fill the silences’ to its logical conclusion. It’s bit like taking a small
piece of land, and sharing it among many
people.
![Page 26: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
14/12/2014 26
Waiting time
This comes at a price: more waiting and variability.
![Page 27: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
|27
Examples of performance
problems
![Page 28: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
|28
BT 21CN VOICE
The UK incumbent operator spent a lot of money trying to replace circuits with packets for landline voice calls
![Page 29: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
FAILED Yet the project was infeasible from the
outset: they tried to fit the packet signalling within the timing constraints of the circuit
network, which was impossible.
![Page 30: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
|30
IPX
These are not isolated issues, but are endemic to our industry. Consider the
standard for quality-managed packet voice, IPX.
![Page 31: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
IPX Specification IR.34 v9.1§6.3.4
This does not specify a working phone call! The
average over a month could still allow for a 40 minute
period with 100% loss, and be compliant.
![Page 32: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
IPX performance and cost issues Why? Media and signalling are joined, which forces traffic the “long way”
?
![Page 33: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Session Border Controllers
![Page 34: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
|34
De-jittering
De-jitter at every boundary
Because circuits have zero variability, we locally optimise to “low variability”.
![Page 35: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
|35
This creates the maximum
possible total packet delay.
![Page 36: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
|36
Result? Quality budget is
used up
![Page 37: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
|37
Everything fails under load. Why? No call admission control (CAC), so no graceful degradation.
Large European MNO’s enterprise converged voice service
![Page 38: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
|38
Unmanaged performance hazards Why? No schedulability limits in CAC.
(and every other UC vendor)
![Page 39: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
|39
VoLTE High cost of association management Why? It needs IMS
High cost of quality Why? Weak scheduling; waste in code space + backhaul
Limited revenue Why? Assurance only offered to telephony, not other apps
![Page 40: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
|40
VoLTE High cost of association management Why? It needs IMS
High cost of quality Why? Weak scheduling; waste in code space + backhaul
Limited revenue Why? Assurance only offered to telephony, not other apps
![Page 41: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
|41
VoLTE High cost of association management Why? It needs IMS
High cost of quality Why? Weak scheduling; waste in code space + backhaul
Limited revenue Why? Assurance only offered to telephony, not other apps
![Page 42: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
|42
Small cells Failure due to timing issues Why? Media, signalling, network control are on the same path. These lack isolation; have a coupled load; result is self-induced failure.
![Page 43: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
|43
Small cells Failure due to timing issues Why? Media, signalling, network control are on the same path. These lack isolation; have a coupled load; result is self-induced failure.
![Page 44: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
|44
Broadband voice Growing voice quality problems Why? Worsening “non-stationarity” QoS suffers from “quality inversion” AQM creates new failure hazards Clever voice codecs just add more delay
![Page 45: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
|45
Broadband voice Growing voice quality problems Why? Worsening “non-stationarity” QoS suffers from “quality inversion” AQM creates new failure hazards Clever voice codecs just add more delay
See “Networking and the Internet’s ‘global
warming’ problem”
![Page 46: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
|46
Broadband voice Growing voice quality problems Why? Worsening “non-stationarity” QoS suffers from “quality inversion” AQM creates new failure hazards Clever voice codecs just add more delay
See “The six challenges of selling QoS”
![Page 47: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
|47
Broadband voice Growing voice quality problems Why? Worsening “non-stationarity” QoS suffers from “quality inversion” AQM creates new failure hazards Clever voice codecs just add more delay
See “Why Active Queue Management should worry telco investors”
![Page 48: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
|48
Broadband voice Growing voice quality problems Why? Worsening “non-stationarity” QoS suffers from “quality inversion” AQM creates new failure hazards Clever voice codecs just add more delay
![Page 49: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
|49
DSL Lack of service continuity Why? ADSL – 30 sec retrain outages VDSL – frequent short retrains
![Page 50: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
|50
DSL Lack of service continuity Why? ADSL – 30 sec retrain outages VDSL – frequent short retrains
![Page 51: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
|51
Systemic risks
Going from 400+ to 6 switching centres with IP Transition: can
anyone model the performance risks in disaster situations?
(Answer: not really.)
![Page 52: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
|52
Why all these problems?
![Page 53: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
We’re trying to build network skyscrapers…
![Page 54: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
But we’re in the “digital medieval” period; the science
isn’t yet ready.
![Page 55: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
Result? Failure
under load
![Page 56: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
Statistical sharing = Variability
![Page 57: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
Source: Wikipedia/Imperial War Museum
It’s like when we moved to jet aircraft. We didn’t understand the dynamic loading properties of the
materials.
![Page 58: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
Source: Wikipedia/Krelnik
The result was catastrophic failure in operation. Passengers
were flying what were in effect experimental
aircraft. (SDN/NFV are experimental technologies being pushing
into deployment…)
![Page 59: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
|59
Why? Circuit thinking!
“Monoservice fallacy” The mistaken belief that
capacity and schedulability are the same thing.
![Page 60: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
|60
Two very common basic technical errors: More capacity solves schedulability problems. Average measures are what matter.
![Page 61: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
|61
Two very common basic technical errors: More capacity solves schedulability problems. Average measures are what matter.
![Page 62: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
|62
Two very common basic technical errors: More capacity solves schedulability problems. Average measures are what matter.
![Page 63: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
|63
IMS manages capacity constraints
not schedulability constraints You might want to
ask for your money back.
![Page 64: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
|64
This will get worse!
SDN/NFV create more variability
and aggregate failures.
![Page 65: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
|65
Current regulatory framework has no concept of
schedulability
![Page 66: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
Quality fraud
|66
14/12/2014 | ©2014 Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd
“Bad” network operators take the cash for delivering
voice, but will engage in “quality fraud”.
![Page 67: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
1 2 3
![Page 68: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
Regulators have a role in
managing quality
2
![Page 69: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
Future packet voice dystopia
![Page 70: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
|70
Sustainability trap International voice quality assurance market will become irrelevant Why? Price reductions due to no quality floor Performance crises needing more equipment OTT outperforms PSTN/PLMN
![Page 71: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
|71
Sustainability trap International voice quality assurance market will become irrelevant Why? Price reductions due to no quality floor Performance crises needing more equipment OTT outperforms PSTN/PLMN
![Page 72: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
|72
Sustainability trap International voice quality assurance market will become irrelevant Why? Price reductions due to no quality floor Performance crises needing more equipment OTT outperforms PSTN/PLMN
![Page 73: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
|73
Sustainability trap International voice quality assurance market will become irrelevant Why? Price reductions due to no quality floor Performance crises needing more equipment OTT outperforms PSTN/PLMN
![Page 74: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
|74
Economic crisis in voice market!
Costs can’t drop (due to market size and overheads)
but prices can!
![Page 75: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
|75
The OTT quality arbitrage is finite
So OTT can’t take up the
slack
![Page 76: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
Future packet voice utopia
![Page 77: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
|77
Sustainable growth
New revenue Quality floor and price floor established Wide range of assured services
Lower costs Decreased requirement to buy equipment
![Page 78: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/78.jpg)
|78
Sustainable growth
New revenue Quality floor and price floor established Wide range of assured services
Lower costs Decreased requirement to buy equipment
![Page 79: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/79.jpg)
THE BIG QUESTION!
How to get trustworthy services,
that are affordable, and enable innovation?
![Page 80: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/80.jpg)
|80
So, what
to do?
![Page 81: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/81.jpg)
|81
Understand packets!
“Translocation as a Service” (with contention) vs
Circuit fragment (without contention)
Need to understand
what the packet
service is!
![Page 82: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/82.jpg)
4 REALITIES TO DEAL WITH 1. The business model will change 2. The media will shift from circuits 3. Your power is over the E164 numbering 4. The future value is in trusted services
![Page 83: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/83.jpg)
4 REALITIES TO DEAL WITH 1. The business model will change 2. The media will shift from circuits 3. Your power is over the E164 numbering 4. The future value is in trusted services
![Page 84: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/84.jpg)
4 REALITIES TO DEAL WITH 1. The business model will change 2. The media will shift from circuits 3. Your power is over the E164 numbering 4. The future value is in trusted services
![Page 85: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/85.jpg)
4 REALITIES TO DEAL WITH 1. The business model will change 2. The media will shift from circuits 3. Your power is over the E164 numbering 4. The future value is in trusted services
![Page 86: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/86.jpg)
4 REALITIES TO DEAL WITH 1. The business model will change 2. The media will shift from circuits 3. Your power is over the E164 numbering 4. The future value is in trusted services
![Page 87: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/87.jpg)
|87
Issue: Retail Numbering
does not impose a quality requirement.
![Page 88: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/88.jpg)
|88
Outcome-oriented policies
(not tied to implementation mechanisms)
Answer…
![Page 89: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/89.jpg)
|89
Issue: Wholesale Can’t compose
quality along the supply chain.
![Page 90: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/90.jpg)
|90
New market role: Translocation
assurance provider
Answer…
![Page 91: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/91.jpg)
|91
14/12/2014 | ©2014 Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd
MEASURE QUALITY
Measure & enforce
The job of the ‘assurance’ provider
![Page 92: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/92.jpg)
1 2 3
![Page 93: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/93.jpg)
It is time to consider new
commercial and technical models
3
![Page 94: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/94.jpg)
|94
Commercial approach
![Page 95: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/95.jpg)
SET A PRICE FOR QUALITY
High Standard
Low
![Page 96: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/96.jpg)
E164 NUMBERS • Your global trusted
brand for quality assurance
• You can’t control the media delivery…
• …so focus on preserving value in the numbering and signalling
![Page 97: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/97.jpg)
E164 NUMBERS • Your global trusted
brand for quality assurance
• You can’t control the media delivery…
• …so focus on preserving value in the numbering and signalling
![Page 98: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/98.jpg)
MARKET STRUCTURE
MEDIA
SIGNALLING
IDENTITY
The three basic jobs that get done in delivering phone
calls
![Page 99: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/99.jpg)
TODAY’S REVENUE MODEL
MEDIA
SIGNALLING
IDENTITY
Minutes No billing for unanswered calls
No user charge for numbers
![Page 100: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/100.jpg)
COST STRUCTURE
MEDIA
SIGNALLING
IDENTITY
Translocation costs
Association costs
Numbering costs
![Page 101: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/101.jpg)
TODAY’S (RELATIVE) COSTS
MEDIA
SIGNALLING
IDENTITY
Falling fast
Falling slowly/rising
Fixed/rising
![Page 102: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/102.jpg)
POSSIBLE FUTURE MODEL?
MEDIA
SIGNALLING
IDENTITY
Bill and keep
Charge for unanswered or rejected calls
Pigouvian tax
![Page 103: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/103.jpg)
POSSIBLE FUTURE MODEL?
MEDIA
SIGNALLING
IDENTITY
Bill and keep
Charge for unanswered or rejected calls
Pigouvian tax Anti-spam
![Page 104: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/104.jpg)
POSSIBLE FUTURE MODEL?
MEDIA
SIGNALLING
IDENTITY
Bill and keep
Charge for unanswered or rejected calls
Pigouvian tax
![Page 105: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/105.jpg)
|105
14/12/2014 | ©2014 Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd
Compensate for negative externalities
What is a Pigouvian tax?
![Page 106: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/106.jpg)
THREE REGULATORY QUALITY LEVELS
Threshold
Target
Stretch
![Page 107: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/107.jpg)
Basic conformance
Threshold
Target
Stretch
Lose number or license
![Page 108: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/108.jpg)
Tax substandard services
Threshold
Target
Stretch
Pigouvian tax on numbering
![Page 109: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/109.jpg)
Threshold
Target
Stretch
No tax
Tax substandard services
![Page 110: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/110.jpg)
Drive market developments
Threshold
Target
Stretch
![Page 111: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/111.jpg)
STRETCH QUALITY TARGET USES
1.Criteria for license renewal and setting price of license.
2.Trade SMP for higher quality. 3.Encourage development of
new markets.
![Page 112: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/112.jpg)
STRETCH QUALITY TARGET USES
1.Criteria for license renewal and setting price of license.
2.Trade SMP for higher quality. 3.Encourage development of
new markets.
Significant market power
![Page 113: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/113.jpg)
STRETCH QUALITY TARGET USES
1.Criteria for license renewal and setting price of license.
2.Trade SMP for higher quality. 3.Encourage development of
new markets. Such as higher definition, WebRTC assurance, video.
![Page 114: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/114.jpg)
Offer quality assured and unassured number ranges
![Page 115: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/115.jpg)
SOLVE “NET NEUTRALITY”
Fair and non-discriminatory pricing of quality is possible!
(How? Ask me!)
![Page 116: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/116.jpg)
Technical approach
|116
![Page 117: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/117.jpg)
Take control over the systemic
performance hazards (as operators and their
suppliers aren’t doing it)
![Page 118: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/118.jpg)
FILL THE GAP IN STANDARDS FOR QUALITY
• The ITU needs to step up! • Provide scientific and thought
leadership • Create standards for composable
quality metrics that are a strong QoE proxy
![Page 119: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/119.jpg)
THREE LAYER POLYSERVICE MODEL
Superior traffic costs more to deliver… so should attract a premium
Economy
Standard
Superior
Standard traffic is today’s off-peak Internet… but is consistently the same
Economy traffic does not drive capacity upgrades
![Page 120: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/120.jpg)
Cost of 80 hours of voice/month?
25¢
(translocation cost only, based on UK cost metrics)
![Page 121: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/121.jpg)
SUMMARY 1. Move the money! Identity and assurance is
where it will be. 2. Light touch on how services are delivered,
but a strong grip on what quality. 3. Pro-consumer and pro-citizen policies that
align with packet technical reality.
![Page 122: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/122.jpg)
WANT TO LEARN MORE?
THEN SIGN UP FOR MY NEWSLETTER FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER
READ THE GEDDES THINK TANK
![Page 123: Circuits to Packets - policy and regulation for the IP transition](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022060205/55a20b2c1a28abd24e8b45b0/html5/thumbnails/123.jpg)
Thank you www.martingeddes.com [email protected]