cimearth...philosophy,*models,*and*evalua3on* cimearth * joshua elliott, ian foster, meredith...
TRANSCRIPT
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Philosophy, Models, and Evalua3on
CIM-‐EARTH
Joshua Elliott, Ian Foster, Meredith Franklin, Kenneth Judd, Sam Kortum, Elisabeth Moyer, Kenneth Judd, Todd Munson,
Fernando Pérez-Cervantes, and David Weisbach
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CIM-‐EARTH Framework
Commi@ed to open-‐source philosophy
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Open-‐Source Philosophy
• What is open source? License allowing others to – Read the code – Modify the code – Redistribute modified code
• Why do we open source? – Belief in the free exchange of ideas embodied in code – Improve transparency and encourage experimenta3on – Increase compe33on and innova3on in the field – Ease cost of contribu3ons from a diverse community
• How do we plan achieve open source? – Make code and data accessible – Document the code to make it understandable – SoOware engineering to make code extensible and modifiable
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State of CIM-‐EARTH Framework
• Modeling – Myopic computable general equilibrium model – Nested constant elas3city of subs3tu3on – Support for homogenous commodi3es – Ad valorem and excise taxes – Export and import du3es – Endogenous tax rates
• Implementa3on – AMPL specifica3on framework – Preprocessing and calibra3on capabili3es – Automa3c dynamic genera3on of instances – Solu3on of instances using the PATH algorithm – Output of detailed reports to files for further processing
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CIM-‐EARTH Data and Trajectories
• GTAP Version 7 – 2004 base year – Energy volume data – Expenditure and revenue data
• Es3ma3on of labor dynamics – 2008 UN popula3on database – 2006 ILO economic ac3vity rate database – 2008 US Bureau of Labor Sta3s3cs produc3vity database
• Es3ma3on of land and natural resource dynamics – 2008 UN Food and Agriculture Organiza3on database – 2007 World Energy Council survey of energy resources
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Popula3on Size • 2008 UN popula3on database
– Historical informa3on 1950-‐2008 – Forecasts 2009-‐2050
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Labor Force Par3cipa3on • 2006 ILO economic ac3vity database
– Historical informa3on 1980-‐2006 – Forecasts 2007-‐2020 – Extrapola3on 2021-‐2025
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Labor Endowment
• Popula3on size 3mes ac3vity rate
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Labor Produc3vity
• US Bureau of Labor Sta3s3cs – Historical informa3on 1950-‐2008 – Extrapola3on 2009-‐2025
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A Simple Study
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Importers and Transporta3on • Three types of transport • Each is a homogenous good • Leon3ef nest for transport
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Carbon Accoun3ng
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Carbon Accoun3ng
• System has more variables than equa3ons – Regions*(Sectors+Factors) variables – Regions*Sectors equa3ons
• Ignore contribu3ons from factors • Fix carbon amounts for energy sectors
– Use energy volume data – Standard conversion factors
• Solve remaining system of equa3ons – Compute known parameters – Use fixed trajectories to obtain linear system – Exploit structure to obtain approximate solu3on
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Carbon Accounts for 2004
Units are million tonnes CO2
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Uncertainty in Emissions
Emissions with varying elas3city of subs3tu3on Ensemble contains 5,000 realiza3ons
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Future Direc3ons • Framework improvements
– Public and private learning – Research and development – Capital and product vintages – Overlapping consumer genera3ons – Household produc3on func3ons – Nonseparable u3lity func3ons – Heterogeneous beliefs
• Addi3onal types of models – Fully-‐dynamic computable general equilibrium – Dynamic-‐stochas3c computable general equilibrium
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Conclusion • Leakage has a nontrivial impact on mi3ga3on policy
– ~20% of reduc3ons in Annex-‐B cancelled by increases in others – Border tax adjustments recoup the cancelled reduc3ons – Results in increased domes3c produc3on
• Model es3mates carbon tax of $25-‐30/tCO2 for 17% reduc3on • These results, however, should be taken with a large grain of salt
– Need rigorous parameter es3ma3on and valida3on using 3me-‐series data – Lack of 3me-‐series data and the funding to generate it is a major problem – Significant uncertain3es will s3ll exist and will need to be reported – Studies of these uncertain3es with large ensembles are required – Many more policy scenarios also need to be run
• Openness is essen3al for transparency – Leakage instances are available at www.cim-‐earth.org – Generators and preprocessing code available soon – Documenta3on being wri@en as code is developed – Framework is extensible and modifiable by others
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Outline
• Overview of philosophy and framework • Model details for the carbon leakage study
• Distribu3onal impacts on trade for scenarios
• Conclusion
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Labor Produc3vity Growth Rate
• US Bureau of Labor Sta3s3cs – Historical informa3on 1950-‐2008 – Extrapola3on 2009-‐2025
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Business as Usual Scenario 2020
Units are million tonnes CO2
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Carbon Tax Scenario
• Uniform carbon tax in Annex-‐B countries – Starts in 2012 and held constant – Industries taxed on fossil inputs
• Coal • Crude oil • Natural gas
– Taxable amounts based on • Energy volume data • Standard conversion factors
• No carbon taxes elsewhere
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Emission Flows: Carbon Tax $28.5/tCO2
Units are million tonnes CO2
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Trade Impacts: Carbon Tax $28.5/tCO2
Units are billion 2004 dollars
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Emissions: Carbon Tax $28.5/tCO2
Units are million tonnes CO2
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Border Tax Adjustment Scenario
• Uniform carbon tax in Annex-‐B countries – Starts in 2012 and held constant – Industries taxed on fossil inputs
• Border tax adjustments on imports to Annex-‐B – Starts in 2012 and held constant – Carbon concentra3ons are
• Calculated from data for non-‐BTA scenario • By approximately solving system of equa3ons • Accounts for fossil fuel usage across all inputs
– Only applied to imports from non Annex-‐B countries • No carbon taxes elsewhere
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Emission Flows: Carbon Tax $28.5/tCO2 with Border Tax
Units are million tonnes CO2
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Trade Impacts: Carbon Tax $28.5/tCO2 with Border Tax
Units are billion 2004 dollars
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Emissions: Carbon Tax $28.5/tCO2 with Border Tax
Units are million tonnes CO2
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Percent Emission Reduc3on for U.S. Consumers
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Uncertainty in Regional GDP
Rela3ve GDP with varying elas3city of subs3tu3on Ensemble contains 5,000 realiza3ons
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Future Direc3ons • Study improvements
– Improve region and sector details – Incorporate revenue recycling policies – Endogenous tax rates that differ by region – Endogenous computa3on of carbon amounts – Account for land, labor, and capital carbon – Imperfect border tax adjustments – Distribu3onal consumer impacts
• Framework improvements – Public and private learning – Research and development – Capital and product vintages – Overlapping consumer genera3ons – Household produc3on func3ons – Nonseparable u3lity func3ons – Heterogeneous beliefs