cibc multi-asset absolute return strategy · 2021. 7. 19. · cibc asset management detailed...

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CIBC MULTI-ASSET ABSOLUTE RETURN STRATEGY Investment objective The Fund’s investment objective is to achieve a positive absolute return that exceeds the return of the Government of Canada 91- day treasury bills over rolling three-year periods, regardless of the prevailing economic conditions, by actively managing a diversified portfolio with direct and indirect exposure primarily to equity securities, fixed income securities, commodities, currencies, and derivatives investments. Investment strategy The Portfolio Advisor identifies and pursues multiple investment ideas and opportunities across and within a wide range of asset classes. The identity and number of investment strategies used by the Fund, and the amount of assets allocated among them, will change over time. Investment management team Luc de la Durantaye, CFA CIBC Asset Management Inc. Francis Thivierge, CFA CIBC Asset Management Inc. Patrick Bernes, CFA CIBC Asset Management Inc. Volatility ranking Low Low - Medium Medium Medium - High High Fund details *As at July 31, 2021 Series A F Management fee 1.90% 0.90% Administrative fee 0.20% 0.20% Fund code ATL5012 ATL5010 Fund code (USD) ATL5014 ATL5015 Inception date October 22, 2018 October 22, 2018 Inception date (USD) October 28, 2019 October 28, 2019 Unit price* $10.83 $10.97 Unit price (USD)* $8.68 $8.79 Series A & F Total fund assets $mi* $2,162.31 Distribution frequency Semi-Annually Minimum investment $500 Minimum additional investment $100 Liquidity Daily Fund category Alternative Multi-Strategy Strategy objective +5% ½ T-bills + 5% target return Volatility of global equities Aims to achieve a positive absolute return by targeting, over rolling three-year periods, an annualized return of 5% in excess of the Government of Canada 91- day treasury bills (gross of fees and expenses) Aims to achieve an annualized volatility, under normal market conditions, at a level that is generally half the volatility of global equities represented by the MSCI AC World Index (CAD) measured over the same three-year rolling periods Performance (%) *As at July 31, 2021 Trailing returns 1 mth 3 mths 6 mths 1 yr 3 yrs 5 yrs 10 yrs Since inception Series A -0.1 0.0 2.0 2.1 n/a n/a n/a 3.7 Series F 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.1 n/a n/a n/a 4.9 Series A (USD) -0.7 -1.5 4.6 9.6 n/a n/a n/a 7.3 Series F (USD) -0.6 -1.2 5.1 10.7 n/a n/a n/a 8.3 Calendar year returns YTD 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 Series A 1.3 7.3 0.7 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Series F 1.9 8.5 1.9 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Series A (USD) 3.3 9.5 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Series F (USD) 3.9 10.7 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a CIBC MULTI-ASSET ABSOLUTE RETURN STRATEGY | 1

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Page 1: CIBC MULTI-ASSET ABSOLUTE RETURN STRATEGY · 2021. 7. 19. · CIBC ASSET MANAGEMENT Detailed portfolio exposure overview *As at June 30, 2021 Portfolio exposure Portfolio weight Risk

CIBC MULTI-ASSET ABSOLUTE RETURN STRATEGYInvestment objectiveThe Fund’s investment objective is to achieve a positive absolute return that exceeds the return of the Government of Canada 91-day treasury bills over rolling three-year periods, regardless of the prevailing economic conditions, by actively managing a diversified portfolio with direct and indirect exposure primarily to equity securities, fixed income securities, commodities, currencies, and derivatives investments.

Investment strategyThe Portfolio Advisor identifies and pursues multiple investment ideas and opportunities across and within a wide range of asset classes. The identity and number of investment strategies used by the Fund, and the amount of assets allocated among them, will change over time.

Investment management teamLuc de la Durantaye, CFA CIBC Asset Management Inc.

Francis Thivierge, CFA CIBC Asset Management Inc.

Patrick Bernes, CFA CIBC Asset Management Inc.

Volatility ranking

Low Low -Medium Medium Medium -

High High

Fund details *As at July 31, 2021

Series A FManagement fee 1.90% 0.90%Administrative fee 0.20% 0.20%Fund code ATL5012 ATL5010Fund code (USD) ATL5014 ATL5015Inception date October 22, 2018 October 22, 2018Inception date (USD) October 28, 2019 October 28, 2019Unit price* $10.83 $10.97Unit price (USD)* $8.68 $8.79Series A & FTotal fund assets $mi* $2,162.31Distribution frequency Semi-AnnuallyMinimum investment $500Minimum additional investment $100

Liquidity DailyFund category Alternative Multi-Strategy

Strategy objective

+5% ½T-bills + 5% target return

Volatility of global equities

Aims to achieve a positive absolute return by targeting, over rolling three-year periods, an annualized return of 5% in excess of the Government of Canada 91-day treasury bills (gross of fees and expenses)

Aims to achieve an annualized volatility, under normal market conditions, at a level that is generally half the volatility of global equities represented by the MSCI AC World Index (CAD) measured over the same three-year rolling periods

Performance (%) *As at July 31, 2021

Trailing returns 1 mth 3 mths 6 mths 1 yr 3 yrs 5 yrs 10 yrs Since inceptionSeries A -0.1 0.0 2.0 2.1 n/a n/a n/a 3.7Series F 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.1 n/a n/a n/a 4.9Series A (USD) -0.7 -1.5 4.6 9.6 n/a n/a n/a 7.3Series F (USD) -0.6 -1.2 5.1 10.7 n/a n/a n/a 8.3

Calendar year returns YTD 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012Series A 1.3 7.3 0.7 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aSeries F 1.9 8.5 1.9 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aSeries A (USD) 3.3 9.5 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aSeries F (USD) 3.9 10.7 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

CIBC MULTI-ASSET ABSOLUTE RETURN STRATEGY | 1

Page 2: CIBC MULTI-ASSET ABSOLUTE RETURN STRATEGY · 2021. 7. 19. · CIBC ASSET MANAGEMENT Detailed portfolio exposure overview *As at June 30, 2021 Portfolio exposure Portfolio weight Risk

CIBC ASSET MANAGEMENT

Monthly portfolio summary *As at July 31, 2021

Asset class summaryPortfolio weight

Risk contribution

Core Fixed Income -9.5% -0.7%Credit Fixed Income 16.8% 13.6%Equities 7.5% 61.7%Currencies -6.4% 7.5%Commodities 9.4% 18.0%Cash 82.2% -

Total 100.0% 100.0%

Strategy summaryPortfolio weight

Risk contribution

Market Risk Premia 34.1% 27.4%Alternative Risk Premia 32.1% 28.0%Tactical Opportunities 33.8% 44.5%

Total 100.0% 100.0%

Top ten long holdingsPortfolio weight

Risk contribution

Long INR 5.4% -1.5%Long CNY 4.7% -1.1%Long Gold 4.7% 8.2%Long Macquarie Commodity 4.6% 4.1%Long Korea 10Y 3.5% 0.1%Long Indonesia 5Y 3.2% 0.3%Long IDR 2.6% 0.2%Long Singapore 10Y 2.4% -0.2%Long Malaysia 10Y 2.3% -0.3%Long Colombia 10Y 2.2% 3.8%

Total 35.5% 13.6%

Top ten short holdingsPortfolio weight

Risk contribution

Short USD -10.5% 4.9%Short Germany 10Y -3.7% -0.1%Short Russell 2000 -2.8% -12.5%Short SGD -2.5% 0.4%Short Germany 30Y -2.2% 0.3%Short JPY -2.2% 1.6%Short ZAR -1.9% -0.8%Short COP -1.7% -1.3%Short THB -1.4% -0.1%Short EUR -1.4% 0.4%

Total -20.0% -12.2%

Portfolio overview ValueLong Term MSCI ACWI (CAD) Risk (Rolling 3-year annualized standard deviation) 17.2%Current Target Risk (Annualized Standard Deviation) (50% of MSCI ACWI CAD) 8.6%Current Portfolio Risk (Annualized Standard Deviation) 5.3%Current Portfolio Value at Risk (VaR) 4.0%Portfolio Yield 0.9%Leverage 1.25x

A positive or negative sign next to the values in the Risk Contribution columns identifies whether or not that exposure is adding or subtracting risk to the portfolio.

GlossaryPortfolio Weight: The dollar value of each position as a percentage of the value of the total portfolio. Note, the portfolio weight of option contracts is represented by their market value weight; the equivalent notional exposure to the underlying asset may differ. Risk Contribution: Identifies the amount of portfolio risk attributed to each position, asset class, or strategy as a percentage of overall portfolio risk. Core Fixed Income: Invests in developed markets government bonds. Credit Fixed Income: Invests in corporate bonds and emerging markets sovereign bonds. Value at Risk (VaR): Measures the potential portfolio loss over the next month, at a 99% confidence level.

Market Risk Premia: Long-only opportunities across equities, bonds - both on a fully currency hedged basis - and developed market and emerging market currencies. Alternative Risk Premia: Long/short relative opportunities from non-traditional style premia such as Value, Momentum, and Carry. Tactical Opportunities: Tactical opportunities resulting from market cycles and investor behaviour not captured by either Market Risk Premia or Alternative Risk Premia. Also exploits systematic hedging strategies that mitigate tail risks during periods of unexpected market turbulence. MSCI ACWI (CAD): The benchmark index used for the strategy’s volatility target is the Morgan Stanley Capital Index (MSCI) All Country World Index (ACWI) in Canadian dollars. NOTE: Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding

CIBC MULTI-ASSET ABSOLUTE RETURN STRATEGY | 2

Page 3: CIBC MULTI-ASSET ABSOLUTE RETURN STRATEGY · 2021. 7. 19. · CIBC ASSET MANAGEMENT Detailed portfolio exposure overview *As at June 30, 2021 Portfolio exposure Portfolio weight Risk

CIBC ASSET MANAGEMENT

Detailed portfolio exposure overview *As at July 31, 2021

Portfolio exposurePortfolio weight

Risk contribution

Core fixed income -9.5% -0.7%Short Japan 10Y -1.1% -0.1%Short UK Gilts 10Y -1.2% -0.2%Short US 10Y Ultra -1.2% -0.7%Short Germany 30Y -2.2% 0.3%Short Germany 10Y -3.7% -0.1%

Equity 7.5% 61.7%Long Korea Kospi 200 1.8% 5.4%Long Malaysia Kuala Lumpur 1.8% 3.8%Long Spain IBEX 35 1.7% 6.4%Long FTSE Taiwan 1.5% 3.2%Long MSCI Singapore 1.4% 3.4%Long iShares MSCI Chile ETF 1.4% 5.2%Long Poland WIG 20 1.4% 4.1%Long Russia ETF 1.3% 6.0%Long UK FTSE 100 0.8% 2.7%Long Euro Stoxx 50 0.8% 3.1%Long S&P 500 0.4% 1.3%Long Australia SPI 200 0.4% 0.7%Long S&P/TSX 60 0.3% 1.2%Swap MSCI EM Asia 0.2% -6.9%Swap US High Stable Gross Margin 0.1% 9.6%Swap MSCI Indonesia Equities 0.1% -1.8%Systematic Equity Hedge (Options) 0.0% 2.7%Swap EU Recovery Eq. 0.0% 6.5%Equity Carry (Options) 0.0% -0.1%Swap EU Go Outside Eq. 0.0% 9.1%Swap MSCI EM ex-Asia 0.0% 10.6%Equity Directional (Options) -0.1% 6.6%Swap MSCI Brazil -0.1% -5.4%Volatility Risk Premium (Options) -0.2% 6.7%Short Japan Nikkei -0.5% -1.6%Short Thailand SET 50 -0.9% -2.7%Short India Nifty -1.0% -1.9%Short Turkey ISE 30 -1.0% -1.6%Short Mexico Bolsa -1.2% -2.1%Short Russell 2000 -2.8% -12.5%

Commodities 9.4% 18.0%Long Gold 4.7% 8.2%Long Macquarie Commodity 4.6% 4.1%Commodities Carry basket 0.1% 0.0%Commodity Directionnal (Options) 0.0% 5.7%

Portfolio exposurePortfolio weight

Risk contribution

Credit fixed income 16.8% 13.6%Long Korea 10Y 3.5% 0.1%Long Indonesia 5Y 3.2% 0.3%Long Singapore 10Y 2.4% -0.2%Long Malaysia 10Y 2.3% -0.3%Long Colombia 10Y 2.2% 3.8%Long South Africa 10Y 1.9% 2.3%Long Indonesia 10Y 1.2% 0.5%Swap Singapore 10Y 0.1% 0.0%Swap Thailand 10Y 0.1% 0.0%Swap JPM EM Bonds iShares ETF 0.0% 5.2%Swap Mexico 10Y 0.0% 1.7%Swap Poland 0.0% 0.7%Swap Colombia 10Y -0.1% -0.5%

Currencies -6.4% 7.5%Long INR 5.4% -1.5%Long CNY 4.7% -1.1%Long IDR 2.6% 0.2%Long PLN 1.7% 0.5%Long CZK 1.6% 0.7%Long NOK 1.6% 1.1%Long RUB 1.1% 0.7%Long BRL 1.0% 0.8%Long MYR 0.5% -0.1%Long MXN 0.4% 0.3%Short KRW 0.0% 0.0%Short GBP 0.0% 0.0%Short TRY 0.0% 0.0%Short AUD 0.0% 0.0%Short SEK -0.1% 0.0%Short ILS -0.6% -0.1%Short TWD -1.1% 0.4%Short HKD -1.1% 0.5%Short CHF -1.1% 0.5%Short CLP -1.4% -0.5%Short EUR -1.4% 0.4%Short THB -1.4% -0.1%Short COP -1.7% -1.3%Short ZAR -1.9% -0.8%Short JPY -2.2% 1.6%Short SGD -2.5% 0.4%Short USD -10.5% 4.9%

Cash 82.2% -Cash 82.2% -

CIBC MULTI-ASSET ABSOLUTE RETURN STRATEGY | 3

Page 4: CIBC MULTI-ASSET ABSOLUTE RETURN STRATEGY · 2021. 7. 19. · CIBC ASSET MANAGEMENT Detailed portfolio exposure overview *As at June 30, 2021 Portfolio exposure Portfolio weight Risk

COMMENTARY *As at July 31, 2021

Luc de la Durantaye

Chief Investment Strategist, Multi-Asset and Currency Management

Francis Thivierge

Senior Portfolio Manager, Multi-Asset and Currency Management

Patrick Bernes

Portfolio Manager, Multi-Asset and Currency Management

Michael Sager

Vice President, Multi-Asset and Currency Management

Summary• MAARS strategy risk in July remained low relative to the long-

term target. The pro-cycle tilt of the portfolio was retained.

• We remain broadly constructive on the global economy. Relatively strong growth in the next few quarters is expected to be supportive of pro-cycle assets, including equities, cyclical commodities, and currencies.

• Risks to our constructive cyclical outlook remain elevated. These risks include the continued spread of the Delta Covid variant, U.S. Federal Reserve policy, and Chinese regulatory policy.

• In the face of these risks, we remain comfortable running strategy risk below our long-term target.

• To the extent that dataflow validates our central scenario, we will fully re-engage with our core themes once uncertainty dissipates.

Market overviewWe remain broadly constructive on the longer-term global macro-economic outlook. Global growth has been strong, and is now likely to experience a benign slowdown. In the U.S., this moderation is expected to reflect the waning impact of fiscal spending and a gradual monetary policy normalization. In China, slower growth reflects a tightening of domestic credit conditions. The trajectory of European growth is a little different, and is only expected to reach its peak during the second half of 2021. The difference in timing particularly reflects the extent and persistence of European government mandated lockdowns in the early months of this year. We also observe a growing divergence in the evolution of Covid across countries, with vaccination campaigns in developed countries having progressed more rapidly than in Emerging Market (EM) countries, many of which are enforcing new lockdown measures, creating a two-speed global economy. Overall, with financial conditions likely to remain relatively accommodative,

global growth is expected to slow but remain above its long-term trend rate through 2022.

U.S. inflation is also expected to begin to wane during the second half of this year, having accelerated strongly in recent months. Due to the expected confluence of U.S. dollar depreciation, rising commodity prices, supply bottlenecks, and strong domestic demand, U.S. inflation is expected to remain a more prominent risk for investors in the next few years than it was during the last decade. Just how prominent will depend in part upon the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) tolerance for higher inflation. On this front, the Fed’s June policy pronouncement appeared to run a little contrary to previous market interpretation of its Average Inflation Target policy framework, suggesting a more proactive U.S. monetary policy than expected, and therefore a slightly less elevated average inflation rate in coming years. Several Emerging Market (EM) central banks have also recently pivoted towards a more hawkish policy stance, in these cases in response to more visible core inflation pressures.

Strategy highlights• Low Portfolio Risk; a Continued Pro-Cycle Tilt in Positioning

Portfolio risk remains below its long-term target. With near-term market uncertainty relatively high, we continue to wait for better levels to fully re-engage with a number of core investment themes. Positioning remains tilted towards pro-cyclical assets and strategies.

• Equities: Tactical Reduction in EM Exposure; Continued Focus on Europe Value

We continue to expect equity markets to trend higher over the next year. Although valuations are stretched in a number of markets, continued robust global cyclical economic growth is expected to remain an important support.

We have tactically reduced our long exposure to Emerging Markets. This reflects adverse developments in terms of cyclical economic

CIBC MULTI-ASSET ABSOLUTE RETURN STRATEGY | 4

Page 5: CIBC MULTI-ASSET ABSOLUTE RETURN STRATEGY · 2021. 7. 19. · CIBC ASSET MANAGEMENT Detailed portfolio exposure overview *As at June 30, 2021 Portfolio exposure Portfolio weight Risk

CIBC ASSET MANAGEMENT

outlook and, related, Covid. We retain our longer-term favorable EM bias, due to a continued expected structural growth and valuation advantage of emerging vs developed countries.

We have realigned the portfolio’s Value and Growth exposure. In Europe, the expected growth recovery is on track as economies continue to ease Covid-related activity restrictions. We remain positioned to benefit via Value-related exposures, for instance long/short exposure to European sectors most impacted by economic reopening. In the U.S., we are now short Value, via the Russell 2000 index, and long a basket of firms that offer high and stable margins. This switch reflects rising market volatility, an expected slowing in U.S. growth, & rising cost headwinds facing the small business sector.

• Currencies: Focus on Long-Term Fundamentals; Short U.S. Dollar, Japanese Yen, & Swiss Franc

We maintain long active exposure in currencies of countries with relatively strong long-term fundamentals, relatively attractive interest rate carry and valuations, and a pro-cycle bias. Most are located in the Emerging Markets (EM), including the Russian ruble and Indonesian rupiah. In the Developed Markets, we favor the Norwegian krone. We have active shorts in core DM currencies, including the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen, and the Swiss franc. We also have active shorts in the Taiwan dollar and Thai baht, as funding for active EM Asia currency longs, and in the Israeli shekel against a long Czech koruna position.

• Bonds: EM Remains Attractive; Short Bias in DM Bonds

The back-up in yields earlier in 2021 increased the attractiveness of a number of EM countries across Europe, Latin America, and Asia. As well as constructive domestic fundamentals, bond returns in these countries will likely be supported by the expected long-term weakening trajectory of the U.S. dollar and a tailwind from strengthening commodity prices.

We remain short negative or low yielding DM sovereign bonds, including in the U.S., Germany, Japan, and the U.K., with the expectation that yields will rise from current levels consistent with our constructive cyclical growth outlook.

• Commodities: Cyclically Attractive

Consistent with our continued constructive outlook for the global economy, and our expectation for a little more inflation in the next few years, at least in the U.S., we retain a positive outlook for cyclical commodities. This view is expressed via options in Brent Crude Oil, as well as indirectly via various equity markets, including Chile, Russia, and Malaysia.

We have retained our strategic long position in Gold, despite recent adverse price action, as a protective hedge against pro-risk positioning elsewhere in the portfolio. Massive fiscal deficits and substantial monetary stimulus are also expected to be long-term positives for Gold, as a counterweight to expected U.S. dollar trend weakness. And Gold is another attractive way to position for expected upside inflation risks, especially if real interest rates remain in negative territory.

OutlookReflecting our constructive cyclical global macro-economic outlook, we see scope for pro-risk assets to continue to trend higher. This includes equity and commodity prices. We also continue to expect bond yields to increase a little further yet. Recent bond market price action has run contrary to this expectation, with yields falling back from highs earlier in the summer. This appears to reflect a confluence of two factors, which we currently consider to be risks to our central scenario. First, market concerns regarding the extent of negative growth impact implied by the spread of the Delta Covid variant. We consider this to be an idiosyncratic risk to countries, and related assets, with relatively low vaccinations rates, rather than to the global economy and risk assets overall. Second, the June Fed policy tilt appears to have encouraged a less constructive market assessment of growth and inflation prospects. We consider this assessment to be excessively downbeat, but are monitoring the data for contradictory evidence.

In the face of these risks, we remain comfortable running active risk below our long-term target. To the extent that dataflow validates our central scenario, we will look to fully re-engage with our core themes once uncertainty dissipates.

There can be no guarantee that the Fund will achieve its return and volatility targets. All investment performance is inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond the Manager’s control. In considering the return and volatility targets, you should bear in mind that such targeted performance and volatility is not a guarantee, projection or prediction and is not indicative of future results of the Fund.The Fund pays a management fee and fixed administration fee to the Manager in respect of Series A and Series F units. The Fund also pays fund costs and transaction costs. For more information about the fees and costs of the Fund, please read the prospectus.The Fund will make significant use of derivatives. The Fund may use derivatives such as futures, forwards, swaps, options, covered warrants, debt like securities which have an option component or any combination of these instruments, the value of which is based upon the market price value or level of an index, or the market price or value of a security, currency, commodity or financial instrument. Derivative instruments may be used for the following purposes: to hedge, gain or reduce portfolio exposures. The Fund may also use derivatives for currency management purposes. The Fund’s use of derivatives may introduce leverage into the Fund. Leverage occurs when the Fund’s notional exposure to underlying assets is greater than the amount invested and is an investment technique that can magnify gains and losses. The information does not constitute legal or tax advice.The views expressed in this document are the personal views of investment managers and should not be taken as the views of CIBC Asset Management Inc. This document is provided for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, legal or accounting advice, it should not be relied upon in that regard or be considered predictive of any future market performance, nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities referred to. Individual circumstances and current events are critical to sound investment planning; anyone wishing to act on this document should consult with his or her advisor. All opinions and estimates expressed in this document are as of the date of publication unless otherwise indicated, and are subject to change. Any information or discussion about the current characteristics of this Fund or how the portfolio manager is managing the Fund that is supplementary to information in the prospectus is not a discussion about material investment objectives or strategies, but solely a discussion of the current characteristics or manner of fulfilling the investment objectives and strategies, and is subject to change without notice. You should not act or rely on the information without seeking the advice of a professional. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the simplified prospectus before investing. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. The indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns, including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions, but do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any unitholder that would have reduced returns. ®CIBC Asset Management and the CIBC logo are registered trademarks of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC), used under license. The material and/or its contents may not be reproduced without the express written consent of CIBC Asset Management Inc.

CIBC MULTI-ASSET ABSOLUTE RETURN STRATEGY | 5