chuck wagner manufacturing technology division afrl/mlm phone # 937-904-4583...

Chuck WagnerManufacturing Technology Division AFRL/MLM Phone # 937-904-4583

[email protected]

An Orientation to: Manufacturing Readiness Levels and Manufacturing Readiness Assessments

2

Purpose and Background• Manufacturing Readiness Levels (MRLs)• IPT Tools for Evaluating MRLs• Manufacturing Readiness Assessment (MRA)

Process• Assessment Example• Discussion

Session Outline

3

Why MRLs? Manufacturing & Industrial Base Challenge

• Consensus among Congress, OSD, CSAF, GAO:“Advanced weapon systems cost too much, take too long to field, and are too

expensive to sustain”

• Recent GAO study of 54 weapons programs:– Core set of 26 programs: RDT&E costs up by 42% and schedule

slipped by 20%• $42.7B total cost growth• 2.5 years slip on average

– Characteristics of successful programs (GAO):• Mature technologies, stable designs, production processes in control• S&T organization responsible for maturing technologies, rather than

program or product development manager

• Defense Science Board evaluated ManTech roles/impacts for AT&L– ManTech can significantly impact across all acquisition phases

– Facilitates manufacturing/industrial base readiness for S&T transition and acquisition

4

Up to 85% of Costs are committed during design and development – At Milestone B, up to 90% of costs could be locked in!

Why MRLs? Life Cycle Cost Commitment

Idea Validation Design Development Production Support

100

80

60

40

20

Cu

mu

lati

ve P

erce

nt

of

Co

st

Life-Cycle Cost Determination

Cost-Reduction Opportunities

Source: DARPA Rapid Design Exploration and Optimization (RaDEO) Project

22%

35%

70%

85%

95%

5

Why MRLs? Acquisition Health and Manufacturing Readiness

Manufacturing risk/maturity is not the only cost/schedule/performance driver, but we need to manage manufacturing readiness integral to the overall acquisition process Products made by immature manufacturing processes generally:

- Cost more- Are prone to quality problems- May not all perform the same- Are less reliable in service- Have a hard time delivering on schedule

Establishes the Business Case:- Effects of design changes (spirals, planned upgrades)- Lot pricing agreements (long term vs single lots)- Capital investments--when does the company invest? Govt?

6

Elements of Manufacturing Readiness

• Process planning• Manufacturing

instructions• Process selection• Manufacturing technology• Quality assurance• Production

planning/scheduling• Equipment

• Facilities and layout• Maintenance• Materials management• Supply chain management• Workforce development• Tooling development• Safety and ergonomics• Product testing• Product/process integration

Demands a Disciplined Methodology to Assess, Track, and Manage Manufacturing Readiness

7

MRL Current & Future State

• Current– ManTech is establishing the capability to conduct manufacturing

readiness assessments for AFRL ATDs– Conducted MRAs and incorporated MRLs into approximately 10

key AFRL ATDs; 10 more planned through FY06 – Developing MRL training curriculum focused on MRL 3-6– In partnership with JDMTP, developing DAU tools for program

managers and working final MRL definitions & policy changes– Preparing to conduct MRAs on acquisition pilots

• Desired Future State

– Manufacturing maturity considerations a normal part of acquisition milestone decision-making processes

– Program managers possess a working understanding of manufacturing issues and associated risk

– Acquisition plans and tech transition cost estimates incorporate manufacturing maturity considerations

8

MRL TrainingActivities

• Developing training for ManTech cadre and program IPTs– Train and “certify” ManTech personnel to lead manufacturing

readiness assessments (MRA) and risk mitigation plans– Train IPTs to understand and apply basic MRL concepts

• Current training program– 1 hour Executive Orientation– 8 hour ATD/IPT Introductory Training – 4 day MRA Training (principally for ManTech personnel)

• Training program leveraging selected external activities– DAU Courses

• Topic introduced concurrent with existing PM and Mfg training courses• More focused training under development

– Univ of Tenn Industrial Preparedness Training (3 week duration)• MBA style look at a company business viability and production capability

Will Evolve to Encompass Full Acquisition Spectrum and Institutionalize in AFIT and DAU

9

• Purpose and Background Manufacturing Readiness Levels IPT Tools for Evaluating MRLs • Manufacturing Readiness Assessment

Process • Assessment Example • Discussion

Session Outline

10

Manufacturing Readiness Levels (MRLs)

• Common language and standard for

– Assessing the manufacturing maturity of a technology or product and plans for its future maturation

– Understanding the level of manufacturing risk in trying to produce a weapon system or transition the technology into a weapon system application

• Designed to complement TRLs

• Designed to help set the agenda for manufacturing risk mitigation

11

Manufacturing Readiness & Technology Transition

Success in manufacturing affects– Performance Success of the Technology– Defects and Reliability of the Technology

Consider all these elements equally for Readiness

PRODUCT

MATERIALPropertiesReliability

ProcessingCost

Quality

DESIGNLoads

Use ConditionsProcesses AvailableMaterial Selection

Quantity

PROCESSINGEquipment

Effect on MaterialsConfiguration (layout)

ToolingQuantityQuality

12

Provide a common language and widely-understood standard for

• Assessing the performance maturity of a technology and plans for its future maturation

• Understanding the level of performance risk in trying to transition the technology into a weapon system application

Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs)

13

TRLs Leave Major Transition Questions Unanswered

PERFORMANCE,

SCHEDULE & COST RISK


• Is this level of performance reproducible in items 2 - 1000?

• What will these cost in production?

• Can these be made in a production environment by someone without a PhD?

• Are the key materials and components available?

PERFORMANCE,


PERFORMANCE,


QUESTIONS CONCERNS

TRL 6/7 – Prototype in Relevant/Service Environment

14

TRL 9MissionProven

TRL 8System

Qual

TRL 7Prototype

in OpsEnvironmt

TRL 6Prototype

in RepEnvironmt

TRL 5Breadbrd

in RepEnvironmt

TRL 4Breadbrd

inLab

TRL 3Proof

of Concept

TRL 2ConceptFormulat

TRL 1Basic

PrinciplesObserved

MRL 10Lean Mfg

Proc’s

MRL 9Mfg

Proc’s In Place for

FRP

MRL 8Mfg


LRIP

MRL 7Mfg

Proc’s Maturing for LRIP

MRL 6Mfg

Proc’s In Prod

Rep Environmt

MRL 5Mfg

Proc’s In Relevant Environmt

MRL 4Mfg

Proc’sIn Lab

Environmt

MRL 3Mfg

ConceptsIdentified

Production & Deployment

System Development & Demonstration

Technology Development

Concept Refinement

Relationship To System Milestones

Relationship To Technology Readiness Levels

CBA

MRL Relationships

15

MRL 4Mfg

ProcessesIdentified

KeyProcessesIdentified

Producibility assessment

initiated

MRL 5Mfg

Processes Develop.

Mfgequipment in

relativeenvironment


ongoing

Cost drivers

identified

MRL 3Mfg

ConceptsIdentified

MRL 6Critical

MfgProcesses

Demo’d

Mfgequipment in relevant

environment


ongoing

Cost drivers

analyzed

Long lead items

identified

MRL 7Prototype

Mfg System

Mfg processes in

validation

Producibility improvement

underway

Trade studies

conducted

Supply chain validated

Long lead plans in place

MRL 8 Process Maturity

Demo

All materials ready for

LRIP

Mfg processes proven for

LRIP

Supply chain

established

MRL 9Mfg

ProcessesProven

OverallMfg

ProcessOperates At targetQuality,

Cost and Lead times

All keyProcesses

Meet processControl Targets

MRL 10Highest

Production Readiness

System in ProductionOr Meets

EngineeringPerformance& Reliability

OverallMfg

ProcessOperates At 6-SigmaQuality, and Meets Cost

and Lead timesEstimates

A B C

MRL Definitions

16

MRL Evaluation Criteria

• Technology and Industrial Base• Design• Materials• Cost and Funding• Process Capability and Control• Quality Management• Manufacturing Personnel• Facilities• Manufacturing Management

17

Evaluating MRLs

The Best Way to Ensure Manufacturing Readiness:

• Know what Processes are Being Used for Manufacturing and

• Know that these Manufacturing Processes are Capable and Controlled (Stable)

18

• Purpose and Background• Manufacturing Readiness Levels IPT Tools for Evaluating MRLs • Manufacturing Readiness Assessment


Session Outline

19

MRL Tools Use to Evaluate…

3 Process Flow Charts Basic manufacturing concepts

4 Detailed Process Flow Key manufacturing processesCharts

5 Value Stream Mapping Mapping the current stateand identifying waste

6-10 Value Stream Mapping Mapping the future state and eliminating waste

Mapping Tools for MRL

20

MRL Tools Use to Evaluate…

4-6 Key Characteristics Requirements and Tolerances

4 Process Variables Map Which Variables to Control

5-9 Process Capability Predictability of ProcessPerformance

5-9 Design of Experiments Multiple factors and levels ofindependent variables

6-9 Failure Modes and Risks associated with failuresEffects Analysis

Process Control Tools for MRL

21

Process Flow Charts

Value Stream Maps

Key Char.;Variables Mapping

Process Capability; DOE

FMEA

Process & Sources at Deeper Levels& Custom / Tailored Tools

MRL 4Mfg

ProcessesIdentified



initiated

MRL 5Mfg

Processes Develop.

Mfgequipment in

relativeenvironment


ongoing

Cost drivers

identified

MRL 3Mfg

ConceptsIdentified

MRL 6Critical

MfgProcesses

Demo’d


environment


ongoing

Cost drivers

analyzed

Long lead items

identified

MRL 7Prototype

Mfg System

Mfg processes in

validation


underway

Trade studies

conducted




Demo


LRIP


LRIP

Supply chain

established

MRL 9Mfg

ProcessesProven

OverallMfg


Cost and Lead times

All keyProcesses


MRL 10Lean

System Production

Meets EngineeringPerformance& Reliability

OverallMfg



A B C

Tools for MRL Overlaid on Definitions

22

Manufacturing state of the art definedManufacturing science initiatives defined

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

1-3

SD

DLR

IPF

RP

TD

CR

PR

E-

CR

Manufacturing technology voids/initiatives identified

Critical manufacturing process capability needs defined. Yield/rate issues identified. Manufacturing technology development underway.

Process yield/capability for all critical processes evaluated ina production representative environment.

Manufacturing processes controlled to 3 sigma level. Yields and ratesdemonstrated to meet LRIP needs. Improvement ongoing

Manufacturing processes controlled to 6 sigma level. Yields and ratesmeeting rate production needs. Continuous improvement on-going.

Process capability demonstrated on SDD articles. Required Manufacturing technology solutions demonstrated.

Process yields and capability validated as sufficient to meet LRIP requirements. Required Manufacturing technology validated.

MRL Characteristics

Process Control and CapabilityData Captured at Each Level

23

Process Flow Charts

MRL 4Mfg

ProcessesIdentified



initiated

MRL 5Mfg

Processes Develop.

Mfgequipment in

relativeenvironment


ongoing

Cost drivers

identified

MRL 3Mfg

ConceptsIdentified

MRL 6Critical

MfgProcesses

Demo’d


environment


ongoing

Cost drivers

analyzed

Long lead items

identified

MRL 7Prototype

Mfg System

Mfg processes in

validation


underway

Trade studies

conducted




Demo


LRIP


LRIP

Supply chain

established

MRL 9Mfg

ProcessesProven

OverallMfg


Cost and Lead times

All keyProcesses


MRL 10Lean

System Production


OverallMfg



Tools for MRL 3 Data Collection

24

MRL 3 – Manufacturing Concepts Identified

Tools & Data that Provide Evidence

• Identification of current manufacturing concepts or producibility needs based on laboratory studies.

• Assumed that all corresponding TRL requirements are met for each MRL below.

High Level Flow Charts

Mfg

Concepts

Identified

MRL 3

25

Things to look for in Flow Charts at this level:

• Major Processes Identified

• Any Duplication/Repeated Processes

• Any Special Processes

• Any Uncertain/Unknown Processes

• Material or Design Issues

• Potential Equipment/Supply Issues

• Miscommunication/Misinterpretation

MRL 3 Evidence in Flow Charts

26

Process Flow Charts


MRL 4Mfg

ProcessesIdentified



initiated

MRL 5Mfg

Processes Develop.

Mfgequipment in

relativeenvironment


ongoing

Cost drivers

identified

MRL 3Mfg

ConceptsIdentified

MRL 6Critical

MfgProcesses

Demo’d


environment


ongoing

Cost drivers

analyzed

Long lead items

identified

MRL 7Prototype

Mfg System

Mfg processes in

validation


underway

Trade studies

conducted




Demo


LRIP


LRIP

Supply chain

established

MRL 9Mfg

ProcessesProven

OverallMfg


Cost and Lead times

All keyProcesses


MRL 10Lean

System Production


OverallMfg



A


27

MRL 4 – Manufacturing Processes In LabEnvironment


• Conceptual design completed.• Requirement validation underway and there are large

numbers of engineering/design changes.• Required investments, such as manufacturing

technology identified.• Component physical and functional interfaces have not

been defined.• Processes to insure producibility, manufacturability and

quality are in place and are sufficient to produce technology demonstrators.

• Manufacturing cost drivers emerging.• Producibility assessments have been initiated.• Key technologies at least at TRL 4.

More Detailed Flow Charts

Key Characteristics

Process Variables Map

Manufacturing processes identified

Key processes identified

Producibility assessment initiated

MRL 4

28

Things to look for in Flow Charts at this level:

• Process steps identified

• Any training needs

• Duplication/repeated steps

• Material or design issues

• Unnecessary work

• Equipment needs

• Miscommunication or misinterpretations

• Undefined steps

• Technology needs

MRL 4 Evidence in Flow Charts

29

Milestone “ A ”Key Manufacturing Considerations

Process Capability and Control– Areas where manufacturing technology advancements will be required

adequately addressed in Technology Development Phase plans?

Design and Technology– Key technologies at least at TRL 4 level of maturity?– Producibility challenges associated with this concept adequately addressed in

plans for Technology Development Phase?

Industrial Base Capability and Materiel– Industrial base gaps/risks identified for key technologies? – Single sole/source or foreign source dependencies identified?– Risks associated with exotic, critical, unproven or hazardous materials identified?

– Strategies in place to mitigate?

Costs/Funding and Manufacturing/Quality Management– Funding for manufacturing readiness improvement sufficient to reach MRL 6?– Potential manufacturing cost drivers identified?– Manufacturing and quality strategies adequate to produce technology

demonstrators?– Unusual special tooling and test equipment requirements identified?

A

30

Process Flow Charts

Value Stream Maps



MRL 4Mfg

ProcessesIdentified



initiated

MRL 5Mfg

Processes Develop.

Mfgequipment in

relativeenvironment


ongoing

Cost drivers

identified

MRL 3Mfg

ConceptsIdentified

MRL 6Critical

MfgProcesses

Demo’d


environment


ongoing

Cost drivers

analyzed

Long lead items

identified

MRL 7Prototype

Mfg System

Mfg processes in

validation


underway

Trade studies

conducted




Demo


LRIP


LRIP

Supply chain

established

MRL 9Mfg

ProcessesProven

OverallMfg


Cost and Lead times

All keyProcesses


MRL 10Lean

System Production


OverallMfg



A


31

MRL 5 – Manufacturing Processes In Relevant Environment


• Most initial manufacturing requirements defined and validated (key characteristics)

• Manufacturing technology initiatives ongoing.• Component physical and functional interfaces have not

yet been defined. Significant engineering changes • Producibility assessments ongoing• Key materials, machines and tooling, personnel skills,

and inspection and test equipment have been demonstrated in a relevant environment

• Most manufacturing/quality plans, processes and procedures are in development

• Cost drivers identified.

Key Characteristics

Value Stream Map

Process Capability Study

Design of Experiments

Mfg Processes in Development

Mfg equipment inrelative environment

Producibility assessmentsongoing

Cost drivers identified

MRL 5

32

• Mapping and analyzing the entire set of activities from raw material to finished product will help you evaluate MRL 5

Final Customer

Process, activity, or function

Material

MRL 5 and Value Stream Analysis

33

• More detailed map of the manufacturing process

– Creates a baseline against which to measure improvements

– Quantifies technical, cycle time and cost drivers

• Provides baseline data for assessing scale-up

– Determines capacity required for expected production rates

– Quantifies capacity/resource constraints

• Defines facilitization/equipment required

• Often includes supply chain processes

• Creates a forum for evaluating manufacturing options

– Enables the redesign of an improved process

• Excellent Tool for any IPT

VSA for MRL 5 Evidence

34

Product/Product Family

Collect Data/Draw Current State

Opportunities & Implementation

Set Goals/Draw Future State

Understand how the processcurrently operates

Design an improved process

Define and make changes to realize the Future State

Choose a product/family

Repe

atValue Stream Mapping Process

35

• Frequently occurring VSA opportunities:– Manual processing– High scrap/defect or low yield rates– Rework– Long setup times– Scale-up constraints - facility, training

(learning curve), equipment, tooling– Product design constraints– Material cost and availability (maturity)– Inventory build-up throughout the process

Opportunities/Constraints

Shipping

I

Station 43

90/60/30 day Forecasts

Weekly Fax

Forwardfuselage1 week

1 week1 hour

7 hours10 min

0.5 hours40 min

2.7 hours40 min

2 hours20 min

1.0 dayProduction Lead time

Processing Time

=8.5 days

=170 min

Weekly Schedule

Station 45

4 pcs/mo

2 shifts

I

C/O=0

Debur

C/T=20 min

Uptime=100%

1 day

Staging

C/O=0

Countersink

C/T=40 min

Uptime=100%

2 hoursC/O=10 minutes

Drill

C/T=40 min

Uptime=80%

2.7 hoursC/O=10 minutes

Locate

C/T=10 min

Uptime=100%

0.5 hoursC/O= 1 hour

Prep

C/T=1 hour

Uptime=85%

7 hours

1 1 1 1 1

6-week Forecast

Production Control

MRP

Forward

Fuselage

Current State Value Stream Map Example (Hole Drilling)

Station 44

37

PeopleEquipmentMaterialMethodsMeasurementEnvironmentInformation

PeopleEquipmentMaterialMethodsMeasurementEnvironmentInformation

InputsInputs OutputsOutputs

Co

ntr

ols

Co

ntr

ols

Process Control & Capability

38

1. The features or mechanisms that control the execution of a Process (including process initiation, selection of process steps, selection of alternative steps, iteration of steps within a loop, and process termination).

2. Controlling mechanisms that ensure that a Process is conducted to maximum cost-effectiveness (including entry criteria, formal procedure specifications, and exit criteria).

Degree to which a process is defined, formalized and followed

will help to predict the rate of Variation and potential Defects.

Process Control Defined

39

• Process Control monitors the extent to which our products meet specifications.

• Two "enemies" of product quality: – (1) deviations from target specifications – (2) excessive variability around target specifications

• Designed Experiments are used during the earlier stages of developing the production process to optimize these two quality characteristics

• Quality Control Methods are on-line or in-process quality control procedures to monitor an on-going production process.

Process Control and Readiness

40

• “In control“ or stable process behavior is consistent over the time when compared against itself.

• Process capability compares the process output against a specification that assumes defect-free production

• Good capability needs stability ("in control") first. • If the process is stable, you can compare its actual

performance against the required performance and take corrective action.

Example:If the process is stable but not capable you can predict the level of scrap. You also know where you are and where you need to go for acceptability.

If the process is not stable, then you don't know what you will get, where you are, and where to steer, except that you need to stabilize the process first.

Process Capability

41

• A process can be considered ‘stable’ if the observed average behavior and the observed variance is ‘consistent’ and ‘predictable’ over time.

• An unstable process is caused by

‘unusual’ variation. The output of an unstable process is ‘unpredictable’.

Process Stability

42

Purpose of capability studies– to define process capability– to help identify limiting causes– to demonstrate capability to customers– to improve process capability

• reduce defects, waste, cost, customer returns• undertake higher spec. work

– to employ statistical process controls

• Capability measured by Cp /Cpk

Capability Studies

43

Assessing Process Capability

• Compare the variability of the process output to the desired tolerance range

• You may also include a comparison between the process average and some nominal or target value

Process Capability on a pilot process prior to ramp-up will show whether actual performance meets or exceeds required performance

44

What is a good Cpk ratio?

– Minimum normally 1.33 Cpk• Based on 4 sigma spread

• Extra sigma compensates for

– Larger spread over time & larger population

– Particularly mean shift

• Equivalent to 63 DPM

– Many companies now looking for 2.0 Cpk• Consistent with 6 sigma concept

• Equivalent to 0 DPM– Based on centered process– Allowing up to 2 sigma shift

Capability Studies

45

• When analyzing a process, experiments are often used to evaluate which process inputs have a significant impact on the process output, and what the target level of those inputs should be to achieve a desired result (output).

• Experiments can be designed in many different ways to collect this information.

Design of Experiments (DOE)

46

• The Design of an experiment addresses the questions outlined by your organization by stipulating the following: – The factors to be tested – The levels of those factors – The structure and layout of experimental runs or

conditions.

• A well-designed experiment is as simple as possible - obtaining the required information in a cost effective and reproducible manner.

DOE Guidelines

47

Process Flow Charts

Value Stream Maps



FMEA

MRL 4Mfg

ProcessesIdentified



initiated

MRL 5Mfg

Processes Develop.

Mfgequipment in

relativeenvironment


ongoing

Cost drivers

identified

MRL 3Mfg

ConceptsIdentified

MRL 6Critical

MfgProcesses

Demo’d


environment


ongoing

Cost drivers

analyzed

Long lead items

identified

MRL 7Prototype

Mfg System

Mfg processes in

validation


underway

Trade studies

conducted




Demo


LRIP


LRIP

Supply chain

established

MRL 9Mfg

ProcessesProven

OverallMfg


Cost and Lead times

All keyProcesses


MRL 10Lean

System Production


OverallMfg



A B


48

MRL 6 – Manufacturing Processes In Production Representative Environment


• Majority of manufacturing requirements have been preliminarily defined and validated, to include key characteristics, but there are still significant engineering/design changes.

• Preliminary design of critical components completed. Component physical and functional interfaces have not yet been defined.

• Materials, machines and tooling, personnel skills, and Inspection and test equipment have been demonstrated in a relevant environment but most manufacturing processes and procedures are in development (or manufacturing initiatives ongoing).

• Producibility assessments ongoing. • Production cost drivers/goals analyzed.• System level DTC goals set. • Long lead needs and key supply chain elements

identified.

Key Characteristics

Value Stream Maps and Analyses



Failure Modes & Effects Analysis

Critical Mfg Processes Demo’d

Mfg equipment

in relevant environment

Producibility assessment ongoing

Cost drivers analyzed

Long lead items identified

MRL 6

49

• Consider the demand requirements for scale-up• Draw the ideal process

– Steps, equipment, manning • Identify the constraints to realizing the ideal state• Quantify the constraints and the expected impact

of removing them– Time, cost, etc.

• Determine capacity required for expected production rates

• Define facilities and equipment required• Include key suppliers

Developing the Future State VSA

Station 44

Shipping

I

Station 43

90/60/30 day Forecasts

Weekly Fax

Forwardfuselage

1 day

1 day60 min

.5 dayProduction Lead time

Processing Time

=1.6 days

=140 min

Weekly Schedule

Station 45

30 pcs/mo

2 shifts

I

C/O=0

Inspect

C/T=20 min

Uptime=100%

.5 day

Staging

C/O=0

Drill, Countersink,

debur

C/T=60 min

Uptime=100%

45 minC/O= 1 hour

Inspect, Prep, &Locate

C/T=60 min

Uptime=85%

45 min

1 3

1

6-week Forecast

Production Control

MRP

Forward

Fuselage

Future State Value Stream Map Example (Hole Drilling)

45 min

60 min

45 min

20 min

51

1. Identify all probable failure modes

2. Assign a value on a 1-10 scale for the Severity, Probability of Occurrence, and Probability of Detection for each of the potential failure modes.

3. After assigning a value, the three numbers for each failure mode are multiplied together to yield a Risk Priority Number (RPN).

4. The RPN becomes a priority value to rank the failure modes with the highest number demanding the most urgent improvement activity.

5. Error-proofing, or “poka-yoke” actions are often an effective response to high RPN's.

How to Conduct FMEA

52

Milestone “ B ”Key Manufacturing Considerations

Process Capability and Control- Demonstrated yields and capabilities of key processes support the inclusion of essential technologies or design features in system design?- Essential manufacturing technology development well advanced?

Design and Technology- Key technologies at least at TRL 6 level of maturity?- Known producibility challenges associated with the chosen technologies and basic design features of this system being addressed?- Is there an effective process planned or in place for assuring producibility of design?

Industrial Base Capability and Materiel- Sufficient industrial base capability to support manufacture of SDD articles?- Effective plans in place to address

Long-lead materialsSole or foreign source issues special handling issuesMaturity of new materials

Costs/Funding and Manufacturing/Quality Management- Funding and planning for manufacturing readiness improvement sufficient to reach MRL 8?- Credible production costs goals set and effective plans in place to control/reduce production costs?- Key special tooling and test equipment demonstrated in production representative environment?

B

53

Process Flow Charts

Value Stream Maps



FMEA

Process & Sources at Deeper Levels

MRL 4Mfg

ProcessesIdentified



initiated

MRL 5Mfg

Processes Develop.

Mfgequipment in

relativeenvironment


ongoing

Cost drivers

identified

MRL 3Mfg

ConceptsIdentified

MRL 6Critical

MfgProcesses

Demo’d


environment


ongoing

Cost drivers

analyzed

Long lead items

identified

MRL 7Prototype

Mfg System

Mfg processes in

validation


underway

Trade studies

conducted




Demo


LRIP


LRIP

Supply chain

established

MRL 9Mfg

ProcessesProven

OverallMfg


Cost and Lead times

All keyProcesses


MRL 10Lean

System Production


OverallMfg



A B


54

MRL 7 – Manufacturing Processes Maturing for LRIP


• Manufacturing processes in final validation test • Engineering/design changes decreasing. System

transitioned to formal configuration control• Physical and functional interfaces clearly defined • Initial producibility improvements underway. Producibility

risk assessments and trade studies ongoing.• All raw materials and components are fully understood, in

production and available to meet planned LRIP schedule.• Supply chain being validated • Long lead readiness plans in place. • DTC estimates and detailed production estimates being

established• Manufacturing/quality procedures in final validation tests

Key CharacteristicsValue Stream Maps and AnalysesProcess Capability StudyDesign of ExperimentsFailure Modes and Effects Analysis

Prototype Mfg SystemMfg processes in validationProducibility improvement underwayTrade studies conductedSupply chain validatedLong lead plans in place

MRL 7

55

Process Flow Charts

Value Stream Maps



FMEA

Process & Sources at Deeper Levels

MRL 4Mfg

ProcessesIdentified



initiated

MRL 5Mfg

Processes Develop.

Mfgequipment in

relativeenvironment


ongoing

Cost drivers

identified

MRL 3Mfg

ConceptsIdentified

MRL 6Critical

MfgProcesses

Demo’d


environment


ongoing

Cost drivers

analyzed

Long lead items

identified

MRL 7Prototype

Mfg System

Mfg processes in

validation


underway

Trade studies

conducted




Demo


LRIP


LRIP

Supply chain

established

MRL 9Mfg

ProcessesProven

OverallMfg


Cost and Lead times

All keyProcesses


MRL 10Lean

System Production


OverallMfg



A B C


56

MRL 8 – Manufacturing Processes In Place for LRIP


• Design sufficiently stable to enter into low rate initial production.

• Physical and functional interfaces clearly defined. • All materials are in production and available to meet

planned LRIP schedule. • Manufacturing and quality processes and procedures

have been proven, are under control and ready for low rate initial production.

• Initial producibility risk assessments completed.• Production cost estimates meet DTC goals.• Supply chain established and stable.• Key technologies at least at TRL 8.

Key Characteristics




Failure Modes and Effects Analysis

Process Maturity Demo


LRIP

Mfg processes proven for LRIP

Supply

chain established

MRL 8

57

Milestone “ C ”Key Manufacturing Considerations

Process Capability and Control• Critical manufacturing processes mature enough to produce production-representative

test articles during LRIP?• Key program manufacturing processes mature enough to support LRIP cost and

schedule requirements?• Key manufacturing technology advancements complete?

Design and Technology• Key technologies at least TRL 8?• Design stable enough such that:

- Items produced in LRIP will be production-representative?- LRIP schedule can be met?

• Effective trade studies been performed to assure proper balance between producibility (cost) and performance?

• Ability to produce all design “key characteristics” with existing processes been verified in a production-representative environment?

Industrial Base Capability and Materiel• Sufficient industrial base capability in place to support production of LRIP articles?• Long-lead materials and sole/foreign source materiel risks adequately managed to

support LRIP cost and schedule?• New materials been proven to be mature enough to support LRIP and be

representative of production?

Costs/Funding and Manufacturing/Quality Management• Funding and planning for manufacturing readiness improvement sufficient to reach

MRL 9?• Production cost estimates meet design to cost goals?• Special tooling, test equipment and key manufacturing quality procedures validated and

in place to support LRIP?

C

58

Process Flow Charts

Value Stream Maps



FMEA


MRL 4Mfg

ProcessesIdentified



initiated

MRL 5Mfg

Processes Develop.

Mfgequipment in

relativeenvironment


ongoing

Cost drivers

identified

MRL 3Mfg

ConceptsIdentified

MRL 6Critical

MfgProcesses

Demo’d


environment


ongoing

Cost drivers

analyzed

Long lead items

identified

MRL 7Prototype

Mfg System

Mfg processes in

validation


underway

Trade studies

conducted




Demo


LRIP


LRIP

Supply chain

established

MRL 9Mfg

ProcessesProven

OverallMfg


Cost and Lead times

All keyProcesses


MRL 10Lean

System Production


OverallMfg



A B C


59

MRL 9 – Manufacturing Processes In Place for FRP


• During LRIP all systems engineering/design requirements are met and there are only minimal system engineering/design changes.

• Materials are in production and available to meet planned production schedules.

• Manufacturing processes and procedures are established and controlled in production to three-sigma or some other appropriate quality level.

• Personnel, machines, tooling and inspection and test equipment deliver three-sigma or some other appropriate quality level in production.

• Production risk monitoring is ongoing. • LRIP actual costs meet estimates

Key Characteristics





Mfg Processes Proven

Overall Mfg Process Operates At target Quality, Cost and Lead times

All key Processes Meet process Control Targets

MRL 9

60

Process Capability and Control– All key program manufacturing processes mature enough to support rate

production cost and schedule requirements?

Design and Technology– Key technologies at TRL 9?– Design been proven to be producible and stable?

Industrial Base Capability and Materiel– Sufficient industrial base capability in place to support program FRP needs?– Long-lead materials and sole or foreign source materials issues do not pose a

significant risk to FRP cost or schedule?– New materials fully mature? (controlled to specification)

Costs/Funding and Manufacturing/Quality Management– Funding and planning for manufacturing readiness sufficient to reach MRL 10?– LRIP actual costs support production cost estimates?– Special tooling, test equipment plans adequate to support FRP?– Quality and manufacturing procedures adequate for FRP?

Manufacturing Considerations forFull Rate Production Decision (MRL 9)

61

Process Flow Charts

Value Stream Maps



FMEA


MRL 4Mfg

ProcessesIdentified



initiated

MRL 5Mfg

Processes Develop.

Mfgequipment in

relativeenvironment


ongoing

Cost drivers

identified

MRL 3Mfg

ConceptsIdentified

MRL 6Critical

MfgProcesses

Demo’d


environment


ongoing

Cost drivers

analyzed

Long lead items

identified

MRL 7Prototype

Mfg System

Mfg processes in

validation


underway

Trade studies

conducted




Demo


LRIP


LRIP

Supply chain

established

MRL 9Mfg

ProcessesProven

OverallMfg


Cost and Lead times

All keyProcesses


MRL 10Lean

System Production


OverallMfg



A B C


62

MRL 10 – Lean Manufacturing Processes


• This is the highest level of production readiness.• There are minimal engineering/design changes.• System, component or item is in production or

has been produced meeting all engineering, performance, quality and reliability requirements.

• All materials, manufacturing processes and procedures, inspection and test equipment, controlled in production to six-sigma or some other appropriate quality level in production.

• A proven, affordable product able to meet required schedule.

• Production actual costs meet estimates

Key Characteristics





Lean System Production

Meets Engineering Performance

& Reliability

Overall Mfg Process Operates At 6-Sigma Quality, and Meets Cost and Lead times Estimates

MRL 10

63

• Purpose and Background• Manufacturing Readiness Levels• IPT Tools for Evaluating MRLs Manufacturing Readiness Assessment


Session Outline

64

INTRODUCE

TRAIN

ASSESS

MANAGE

INCORPORATE

• Meet with AFRL ATD PM to get buy in and gather program info• Customize MRL approach for ATD

• Train ATD IPT on manufacturing tools to support manufacturing maturity efforts

• Current MRL and TRL level• Final MRL/TRL if current plan is followed (no MRL)• Plan, actions, and costs to get them to MRL 5

• Incorporate MRL into ATD analogous to TRL

• Manage overall process• Manage risk identification and reduction process• Manage manufacturing maturity to graduation

Approach

65

• Assessment Lead Briefs PM on Manufacturing Assessment Efforts/Expectations

• Works with PM to• Determine appropriate level for Manufacturing Readiness

Assessment(s) (MRAs) -- System may contain several critical technologies

• Schedule on-site MRA with contractor(s)• Send Orientation Package to contractor(s)• Define Assessment Team Membership• Define Deliverables of Assessment Results• Conduct on-site assessment with contractor(s)• Deliver final report

MRL Assessment Process

66

• Select the company(ies) for review – Highest manufacturing risk– Highest manufacturing value added

• Notify companies and send orientation package– Purpose, approach, questions, strawman agenda– Address contract issues if any

• Select Assessment team(s)– Typically 2-6 members per team– Appropriate members (include Gov’t customer)

• Specialists for key technologies (if needed)• Trainees (First MRA experience should not be in leading one)

– May include contractor responsible product design decisions• Schedule On-site assessments

– Months prior to key milestone decisions to establish a baseline and allow time to develop/implement risk mitigation plans

– Balance team and contractor convenience• Team Orientation – Meet prior to on-site assessment

– Review the logistics; the process; special issues– Review basic member responsibilities

Preparations

67

• Introduce team and highlight specific roles – Purpose of assessment and how results will be used– Assessment process– Expectations

• Contractor will:– Introduce contractor participants – highlight responsibilities– Provide detailed responses to questions provided in orientation package– Indicate who is available to work with team counterparts in later meetings for detailed discussions

• Based on team member needs, follow-up meetings with contractor counterparts will be arranged

– Assessment team members need to be ready to identify their needs/desires– Team members meet with contractor counter parts

• Have detailed discussions (status, plans, risks, issues)• Review documents• See shop-floor status

• Prepare feedback for contractor and identify any action items– Each team member shares insights

• Initial assessment of current MRL (their area or overall)• Key strengths/risks/issues• Key missing data (if any)• Proposed action items

• Team lead presents feedback briefing for contractor

On-Site Activity

68

• Gather key missing data• Convene team meeting -- Typically within 2 weeks of

on-site assessment– Discuss and finalize assessment – Examine current program and manufacturing risk reduction

plans– Agree on likely MRL level at completion of milestone if

current plan is followed

• Share results with contractor• Identify the specific risk reduction activities necessary

to reach the next milestone• Identify the funding, time-phasing and approach to

carrying out each activity• Prepare and submit final report

Follow-on Activities

69

MRA Deliverables

Provide briefing and/or written report • Identify current MRL• Identify key factors where manufacturing readiness falls

short of target MRL– Define driving issues

• Identify programs and plans to reach target MRL• Assess type and significance of risk to cost, schedule or

performance• Assess effectiveness of mitigation plans

– Address right issues?– Timely? Adequately funded?– Probability of success?– Options for increased effectiveness

Gather additional information if requested

70

• Purpose and Background• Manufacturing Readiness Levels• IPT Tools for Evaluating MRLs Manufacturing Readiness Assessment

Process Assessment Example • Discussion

Session Outline

71

An Assessment Example

72

Shredder CONOPS

73

Shredder Features

74

Shredder Components

75

Burst TubeRemmele Engineering Inc.

76

A ll W e ld ingto be pe r A W SD 1 7 .1 C la ss B

K e ep C on e S e ct& T ub e S e ctC o n cen tric toE a ch O th er

W e ld T ub e to Co n e S ec tion W e ld B a ffle P la te s in P la ce A lo ngM e cha n ica l T u be

A fte r C o verP a ss is

C o m p le teS tre ss R e lie ve

T h e n C o m p le teC o ver P a ss

A fte r R o o t P a ss isC o m ple te S tre ss-

re lieve a t 5 00D e g fo r 2 H rs.

P re h e a t P rio rto R o o t P a ss

T o b e 90(D e g A p a rt)

W a tch A lig n m e nto f A ft C losu re P la te

K e yw a y to W e ldS e am s o f C on e S e ct

W e ld A ft C lo su re P la te to C o n e S e ct

A fte r C o ve r P a ss isC o m ple te , S tre ss re lieve a t

8 5 0 D e g fo r 2 H rs &T h e n W ra p in In su l to C o o l S lo w ly

S tre ss re lie ve A ft C lo su re P la te

& T he n F ill b e tw e enS titch w e ld s on B a ff le P la tes

w ith A TK su p p lie d R TV

P re ssu re Te s t a t1 4 .7 +/-2 p si

fo r 5 M inu tes

P e r A S TME 5 15 -95

P re ssu re Te s t Tu b e W e ldm e ntF o r A n y Le a ks

F in a l L e ak Te s t & S ea lin g o f C o ne

2 8 07 36 90 M fg

B u rs t T u be M fg

REI Burst Tube Assembly Process Flow

77

Weld Cone toTube

Weld Baffles totube

Gross leakcheck

• Weld BTF per AWS spec

Dye PenetrantInspection

Heat Treat

Visual WeldInspection

REI BTF Weldment; Cone to Mechanical Tube Control Process

78

Form ConeSections

Weld Cone

Grind ID ofCones

Smooth

Turn BurstTube

Laser Cut BafflePlate

REI Burst Tube Flare (BTF)Part Preparation and Control Process

79

• Send BT SubAssy to Heat Treat

• Receive BT SubAssy from Heat Treat

REI Burst Tube Sub-AssemblyControl Process

80

Dye PenetrantInspection

Weld onBulkheadEndcap

Weld onModified ACP

Stress Relieve

Final Dye Check

Final Leak Check

REI Finish Weld BT SubAssy to Modified ACP Process Control

81

REI Adds RTV-11 to Start Bomb Body Integration Process

82

TorqueRetaining

Ring

Seal WeldRetaining Ring/

Bomb Body/ACP

Seal WeldArming Well

Stress Relieve

Final Inspection

REI Integrates BT Sub-Assy into Bomb Body & prepares for Finish Weld Process

83

BLU-109 Bomb Body/Aft Closure Plate - Elwood National Forge

84

I f T a r L in er o r P a in t p rese n t,U se N a pth a in s id e a lo ng the

F ro n t M o s t 15 " to re m o ve

W a sh & C le a n P e ne tra to r H ou s ing

W ith Th is in foB e ing S u pp lied

B y A T K

F ill F ro n t E n d o fP e n etra to r W ith

th e C o rre c t a m ou nto f R TV

P re p a re R T V P erN o te #4

T h e n U sin g A TKS u p p lie d R TV

in B u lk

U se A T K su p p lied P rim er

W ith P e ne tra to r S to o d U prig h tF irs t A p p ly S ilico n P rim er

(P e r n o te # 3)

S ta nd P e n etra to r on E nd & F ill

C u re R T V1 2 H rs . B e fo re

W e ld ing

T h ru fill P ort O p en in g ,D ra w V a cuu m on

C o m p le te A sse m b lyfo r 1 H r.

S e a l A rm in g W e llC o ver & A lt P e n e tra to r

O pe n in g a nd

T h e n In s ta ll A rm ingW e ll in s ide O pe n ing

o f Ca s ing

A n d T orq ue to 45to 55 Ft lbs

T h e n S c re w R e ta in erR in g in P la ce O verA ft C lo su re P la te

L o w er B urs t T ub e W e ldm e ntin P la ce

In s ta ll B urs t T ub e W e ldm e nt

A fte r A ll W e ld ingis C o m p le te ,

S tre ss re lie ve B o th o fT h e se W e ld Jo in ts

C o m ple te S e a l W e ldsA ro un d th e R e ta in in g R ing

C o m ple te S e a l W e ldsA ro u nd T h e A rm ing W e ll

S tre ss R e lie v in g E ffo rtIs C o m p le te

P re he a t W e ld Jo in ts &M a in ta in P re he a t C o nd itionD u rin g & A fte r W e ld ing U n it

F in a l L e ak T e st & S e a lin g o f A C P

0 7 3 7 71 A S S E M B LY M FG

F in a l A ssy o f P e n etra to r

REI Bomb Body Integration Process Flow

85

• White Phosphorous fill takes place in a water tank. • The bomb assembly is submerged, filling the WP chamber with water. • WP is piped in, forcing out the water. • Excess WP is aspirated • Fill port plug is pressed in place and sealed

Fill Port

100% Leak Proof Tested for Safety

White Phosphorus Fill Process (US Army Pine Bluff Arsenal)

86

ShredderWP Fill, Close and Palletize

Flow Chart

PrepareComponents

WP fillWeigh empty

container

Aspirate excess WP Install seal plug Weigh filledcontainer

Leak test containerClean & palletize

container forshipment

Weld theweld plug

PBA Manufacturability - WP Fill Process Control Flow

87

•Tool Description •Qty •Tool

•Casting Stands •4 •Adapt

•Casting Arrangement •4 •New

•Handling Rings •4 •New

•Mold Disassy Equip •1 •Adapt

•Horizontal Lifting Lug •1 set •New

•Horizontal Transport Skid •4 •Adapt

•Weight & CG Fixture •1 •Adapt

•Aft Closure Spanner Wrench •1 •New

•X-Ray Rotating Cart •1 •Adapt

•Fuse Cup Spanner Wrench •1 •New

•Spreader Bar •1 •As Is

Casting Stand

Receive/UnpackCases

Store Containers forPackout

Set unit on CartAttach Handling Ring

Apply MIL-C-450C

Liner to Interior

Set Up Casting Pit

Mold Assembly

Cast Explosive

Cure ExplosiveTest Explosive

Properties

Remove ToolingSet on Cart

Stencil, Paint,Touchup

Final Assembly

X-Ray Unit

Packout

Store, Ship

Mix Explosive

Prepare Ingredients

BLDG 356 BLDG 378

BLDG 356

BLDG 356

BLDG 308

BLDG 308

BLDG 308

BLDG 362

BLDG 356

BLDG 356

BLDG 356

BLDG 360

BLDG 356

BLDG 173

Research Labs

BLDG 311

BLDG 373

HE Loading – ATK Tactical Systems/Allegheny Ballistic Lab.

88

Loaded Shredder Warheads

89

Fuse and FZU – COTS

90Interface Connector, Pigtail, & Bracket similar

to BLU-116 Approach

FZU cable mated to connector on bracket

Flange for attaching conduit to BLU-109 body

Pigtail and Connector for FMU-143 Bomb Fuze

Modified Hardback

External Fuze/FZU/Aircraft Interfaces

Manufacturing Readiness Assessment

Fabrication & Assembly• Remmele Engineering Inc.

(Big Lake, MN)• Processes defined and

sequencing established• Iterative improvements

documented• Current capacity adequate,

potential constraints known

White Phosphorus Fill• Army (Pine Bluff Arsenal, AR)• Uses established process

(under water fill)• Current capacity limited to

1 unit/day

High Explosive Loading• ATK Tactical Systems (Rocket

Center, WV)• Processes steps defined Iterative

improvements documented• Process to apply new MIL-C-450C

asphaltic liner material needs to mature

• Production mock-ups to identify planned improvements

Remaining Items• Developing yield data (processes

represent current state-of-the-practice)• Planning for tooling/fixtures, if necessary

MRL 10Lean Mfg

Proc’s

MRL 9Mfg


FRP

MRL 8Mfg


LRIP

MRL 7Mfg

Proc’s Maturing for LRIP

MRL 6Mfg

Proc’s In Prod

Rep Environmt

MRL 5Mfg

Proc’s In Relevant Environmt

MRL 4Mfg

Proc’sIn Lab

Environmt

MRL 3Mfg

ConceptsIdentified

Desired at completion of ATD

92

• Purpose and Background• Manufacturing Readiness Levels• IPT Tools for Evaluating MRLs• Manufacturing Readiness Assessment

Process• Assessment Example• Discussion

Session Outline

93

Backup

BACKUP

94

• Scope– Primary focus in areas where new technology being transitioned – Will interview DCMA and review Company and PM management metrics/reports

to see if extra effort required anywhere else– Any areas of special interest to SAF/AQR

• AQR notifies AFRL/MLM– Program information (Name, POC, Approaching Milestone, Special

considerations, MRA due date)• ManTech

– Assemble team– Contact program – get/give orientation– Review program management metrics– Conduct DCMA interviews– Participate as observer in SPO or contractor reviews if applicable– Conduct on-site reviews at key sites (OEM, key suppliers)– Prepare findings

• Review findings with PM – Assure errors of fact, if present, are corrected– No surprises

• Provide results to SAF/AQR

Basic MRA Process

95

Provide briefing and written report to SAF/AQR• Identify key factors where manufacturing readiness falls

short of target MRL. Define driving issues• Assess type and significance of risk to cost, schedule or

performance (Nature and estimated scope of consequences if issues not effectively mitigated)

• Assess effectiveness of mitigation plans– Address right issues?– Timely? Adequately funded?– Probability of success?– Options for increased effectiveness

Gather additional information if requested

MRA Deliverables

96

• Commercial product developers can’t afford to be late to market or miss their product cost target

• Industry adopted concurrent engineering principles to consider manufacturing early in the design cycle

Industry Commercial Model

Manufacturing risk assessment, mitigation and capability development

Technology Development Product Development Production

Concurrent Engineering Concepts

97

AFRL Technology Development Models

Current AFRL Model



Future AFRL Model



AFRL funded Other funded Co-funded




98Air Force funded Other funded

Current Perception of Air Force Acquisition

Production

Technology Development

Product Development


Acquisition Development Models




chuck wagner manufacturing technology division afrl/mlm phone # 937-904-4583...

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