chronic risk of global climate change to urban coasts and economies stevens institute of technology,...

Chronic Risk of Global Climate Change toChronic Risk of Global Climate Change toUrban Coasts and EconomiesUrban Coasts and Economies

Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ; November 15 & 16, 2007

Session 4: Economics and Infrastructure, Friday, 16 November 2007, 11:00 - 11:30

Climate Change: Climate Change: Challenge to Urban Planning, Challenge to Urban Planning,

Infrastructure & Sustainability - Infrastructure & Sustainability - The New York Example"The New York Example"

Klaus H. Jacob Klaus H. Jacob [email protected] Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University

Principal Collaborators:Principal Collaborators:George Deodatis, George Deodatis, Columbia University, Dept. Civil Engineering & Engineering MechanicsColumbia University, Dept. Civil Engineering & Engineering Mechanics

Dan O’Brien, Dan O’Brien, New York State Emergency Management Office, GIS UnitNew York State Emergency Management Office, GIS Unit

=> more air conditioning, heat strokes, energy, CO2, more warming !=> more air conditioning, heat strokes, energy, CO2, more warming !

No. of days >90ºF (32ºC) No. of days >90ºF (32ºC) No. of days >100ºF (38ºC)No. of days >100ºF (38ºC)

0ºC0ºC 16ºC16ºC 32ºC32ºC

Daily Electric Energy Load (gigawatt-hours) in NY State, vs. Daily Electric Energy Load (gigawatt-hours) in NY State, vs. Daily-Average Temperature. Daily-Average Temperature.

Solid Points=19Solid Points=196666; Open Points=19; Open Points=199797 =>=> Peak Load Issues. Peak Load Issues.

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Many of these heavy rains occur during Nor’easters or HurricanesMany of these heavy rains occur during Nor’easters or Hurricanes

1950 Nor’easter1950 Nor’easter

1992 Nor’easter1992 Nor’easter

GIS-basedGIS-based Risk Assessment ToolRisk Assessment Tool ‘ ‘HAZUS - MHHAZUS - MH’’(Hazards in the United States for Multi Hazards: Earthquakes, Wind, Flood).

RiskRisk = Sum (= Sum ( Hazard Hazard xx AssetsAssets x x Vulnerability Vulnerability ))$ / year or event over Region $ / year or event over Region probability per time $ value probability per time $ value 0 < V < 1 0 < V < 1

RiskRisk Expected Losses for either a scenario event ($)Expected Losses for either a scenario event ($) or in terms of probabilistic annual losses or in terms of probabilistic annual losses

($/year)($/year)

• HazardsHazards Probability per unit time of exceeding a certain Probability per unit time of exceeding a certain wind speed or flood height wind speed or flood height (P=1 for scenario event)(P=1 for scenario event)

• AssetsAssets Replacement Value in Dollars for Buildings orReplacement Value in Dollars for Buildings orInfrastructure, (or $ / live !)Infrastructure, (or $ / live !)

• Vulnerability Vulnerability Dimensionless Value between 0 and 1. It is theDimensionless Value between 0 and 1. It is theFraction of Replacement Value of a Given Fraction of Replacement Value of a Given

Asset, Asset, Given the Hazard Level it is exposed to.Given the Hazard Level it is exposed to.

Also has a Built-in Economic Model for Damage-Related,Indirect Losses.

NYSEMO HAZUS-MH HURRICANE MODELING:

12 tracks x 2 forward speeds x 3 SS categories = 72 Scenarios72 Scenarios

Worst case:Category 3 (4 not modeled), Slow Moving (25 mph)

NOAA SLOSH MODEL: Surge Heights Translated into Inundated Areas by Dan O’Brien, NYSEMONOAA SLOSH MODEL: Surge Heights Translated into Inundated Areas by Dan O’Brien, NYSEMO

Cat 1Cat 2Cat 3

$ 0.35 Trillion$ 0.35 Trillion

HAZUS-MH-Modeled Building-Related Total Economic Losses HAZUS-MH-Modeled Building-Related Total Economic Losses for 72 Hurricane Scenarios for 72 Hurricane Scenarios

$ 400 Billion$ 400 Billion




$ 200 Billion $ 200 Billion





HAZUS-MH Modeled Total Debris(Tons) for 72 Hurricane ScenariosHAZUS-MH Modeled Total Debris(Tons) for 72 Hurricane Scenarios

Cat 1Cat 2Cat 3

Cat 1Cat 2Cat 3

The estimated worst case Cat 3 scenario from a wind damage perspective is based on the above track with a relatively slow forward speed (25 mph). While this slow forward speed increases wind damage levels it has the opposite affect on storm surge levels. The faster the forward speed, the greater the surge heights and associated inundation area.

Estimated Worst Case Losses to New York State Coastal Counties: - $350 Billion Wind Related Damages to Buildings-1.8 Million Displaced Households (wind only)- 41 Million Tons of Debris (wind only)- 317,850 Population Residing in Storm Surge Inundation Area

Original Loss Estimates from MEC Study, 2003Original Loss Estimates from MEC Study, 2003

CAT 1CAT 1

CAT 2CAT 2

CAT 3CAT 3

CAT 4CAT 4

CAT1=12.3CAT1=12.3; ; CAT2=18.1ftCAT2=18.1ft

CAT3=24.9CAT3=24.9; CAT4=31.3; CAT4=31.3

ft

CAT1=7.80;CAT1=7.80; CAT2=11.8 ftCAT2=11.8 ft CAT3=16.6;CAT3=16.6; CAT4=22.7CAT4=22.7

ft

Sea Level Rise Makes a Bad Situation Worse !Sea Level Rise Makes a Bad Situation Worse !

1 FT1 FT

2 FT2 FT

3 FT3 FT

Calendar YearCalendar Year

Future Return Future Return Period (in Years) Period (in Years) for what is nowfor what is now100-Year Flood100-Year Flood

Reduction in Return Period of the 100-Year Flood Reduction in Return Period of the 100-Year Flood due to Sea Level Rise Only due to Sea Level Rise Only (Constant Storm Frequency).(Constant Storm Frequency).

Risk Management Tools: Minimizing the Risk via Risk Mitigation or Adaptation Measures (Let’s use the Risk Equation and GIS-based Models!) :

RiskRisk = Sum (Hazard x AssetsHazard x Assets x Vulnerability) |________________|

Mitig.:Mitig.: Reduce GW + SLR HazardsReduce GW + SLR HazardsAdapt.:Adapt.: Land Use Planning & Zoning, Land Use Planning & Zoning,

Considerate Placements of new Assets,Considerate Placements of new Assets, Relocation of Essential Assets. Relocation of Essential Assets.

Levees & Dams (?). Levees & Dams (?). Equity Issues. Equity Issues.

or by RiskRisk = Sum (Hazard x Assets x VulnerabilityAssets x Vulnerability )

|______________________|Good Engineering, Construction Quality-Control, Good Engineering, Construction Quality-Control,

Codes and Code Enforcement, Retrofitting, Codes and Code Enforcement, Retrofitting, Raising Assets in Place Raising Assets in Place

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World Trade Center Site Redevelopment “Bathtub”World Trade Center Site Redevelopment “Bathtub”

Structural “Solution”: 3 or 4 BarriersStructural “Solution”: 3 or 4 Barriers

London’s Thames BarriersLondon’s Thames Barriers

15

12

9

6

3 ft

Contribution to SLR from Greenland Ice SheetContribution to SLR from Greenland Ice SheetAs a function of average temperature increaseAs a function of average temperature increase

(meters)(meters)

Conclusions & Response Options:Conclusions & Response Options:

1) CC, Global Warming & Sea Level Rise, 1) CC, Global Warming & Sea Level Rise, Extreme Events =>Extreme Events =>Greater HazardsGreater Hazards::

More Frequent Stronger More Frequent Stronger StormStorm Surges Surges and and FloodsFloods along Urban Coasts & Tidal Estuaries. along Urban Coasts & Tidal Estuaries.

More Days with Extreme More Days with Extreme Precipitation: Precipitation: More Street and More Street and Infrastructure Flooding, above and below Ground.Infrastructure Flooding, above and below Ground.

More More DroughtsDroughts:: Water Shortages & Urban Brush Fire Water Shortages & Urban Brush Fire Hazards.Hazards.

More More Hot DaysHot Days: Peak Energy Demand, Heat Fatalities: Peak Energy Demand, Heat Fatalities

Conclusions & Response OptionsConclusions & Response Options (contin.):(contin.):

2) Higher, More Frequent Losses2) Higher, More Frequent Losses

3) 3) Insurance / Disaster Relief AidInsurance / Disaster Relief Aid (US) (US)

• Commercial Wind InsuranceCommercial Wind Insurance• Federal Flood InsuranceFederal Flood Insurance• More expensive - less available More expensive - less available • Higher Deductibles, Lower “Ceilings”Higher Deductibles, Lower “Ceilings”• Tighter Federal Disaster Relief Aid Tighter Federal Disaster Relief Aid to to

Local Governments, Businesses & Citizens.Local Governments, Businesses & Citizens.

Conclusions & Response OptionsConclusions & Response Options (contin.):(contin.): : :

4) 4) Adaptation Measures/Options:Adaptation Measures/Options:

• Short-term:Short-term: Early Warnings, Evacuation Early Warnings, Evacuation• Emergency & Operational PreparednessEmergency & Operational Preparedness• Assess & Assess & AvoidAvoid Growing Hazard Zones, Growing Hazard Zones,

RetreatRetreat from Low Coastal & River Shore from Low Coastal & River Shore Locations and Inland River Flood ZonesLocations and Inland River Flood Zones

• Restore and Preserve Restore and Preserve WetlandWetland Areas Areas• RaisingRaising & Hardening (?) Structures & Hardening (?) Structures (Barriers??)(Barriers??)

• IncreaseIncrease Peak Capacity Peak Capacity (Road Drainage / Storm (Road Drainage / Storm

Sewer / Treatment Plants / Water Supply )Sewer / Treatment Plants / Water Supply )

• ‘‘Flexible’Flexible’ / Adaptable Designs / Adaptable Designs

Conclusions & Response OptionsConclusions & Response Options (contin.):(contin.):

5) SMART POLICIES …….5) SMART POLICIES …….

Capital InvestmentsCapital Investments into into Climate-Climate-AdaptiveAdaptive Infrastructure Infrastructure andand Adaptive AdaptiveLanduse are Part of a Smart Growth Path... Landuse are Part of a Smart Growth Path...

Cities can make these Investments to Cities can make these Investments to Achieve Short-term Gains for Today’s Achieve Short-term Gains for Today’s Communities,Communities,

But also Leave in Place a Better Legacy for But also Leave in Place a Better Legacy for the Future.the Future.

Thank You !Thank You !

chronic risk of global climate change to urban coasts and economies stevens institute of technology,...

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