christian azar based on joint work with björn sandén chalmers university, göteborg sweden
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Near-term technology policies for long-term climate targets. Christian Azar Based on joint work with Björn Sandén Chalmers University, Göteborg Sweden http://www.frt.fy.chalmers.se. Department of Physical Resource Theory. Technology change. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Christian Azar
Based on joint work with Björn Sandén
Chalmers University, Göteborg Sweden
http://www.frt.fy.chalmers.se
Near-term technology policies for long-term climate targets
Department of Physical Resource Theory
Changing the technologies we pick from the shelfChanging the technologies we pick from the shelf
Bringing new technologies to the shelfBringing new technologies to the shelf
Department of Physical Resource Theory
Technology change
Changing the technologies we pick from the shelf (I)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002
TWh
per
year
BIOMASS
OIL
OTHERS
COAL
District heating in Sweden
Changing the technologies we pick from the shelf (II)
Changing the technologies we pick from the shelf (II)
• Higher price on carbon emissions– Tax, or– Cap and trade, and– Removal of existing subsidies to
fossil fuels
• Efficiency standards when– energy prices are insignificant, or – markets are not expected to work
well
Changing the technologies we pick from the shelf (III)
Changing the technologies we pick from the shelfChanging the technologies we pick from the shelf
Bringing new technologies to the shelfBringing new technologies to the shelf
Department of Physical Resource Theory
Technology change
Advanced energy technologies required
Supply consistent with a 350 ppm target
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
EJ/yr
nuclear
coal
oil solar H2
biomass
solar electr. wind
gas
solar heat hydro
coal w capt.
gas w capt.
bio w capt.
Results from the GET model. Azar et al, 2005, Climatic Change
Shares of world primary energy supply 1850-2000
0%
50%
100%
1850 1900 1950 2000
biomass
coal
oil
gas
hydro nuclear
Bringing new technologies to the shelf (I)
• New advanced technologies required
• Price signals and long-term committments required to make this happen…
• … but not sufficient because of long time scales– knowledge spill over– Long term future discounted by private actors
• Role for government: invest in learning!
Bringing new technologies to the shelf (II): Public R&D funding in OECD on renewable energy
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
Mill
ion
US
$
GeothermalBiomassOceanWindSolar Thermal-ElectricSolar Photo-ElectricSolar Heating & Cooling
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
Mill
ion
US
$
GeothermalBiomassOceanWindSolar Thermal-ElectricSolar Photo-ElectricSolar Heating & Cooling
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
Mill
ion
US
$
GeothermalBiomassOceanWindSolar Thermal-ElectricSolar Photo-ElectricSolar Heating & Cooling
Source IEA (2003)
Bringing new technologies to the shelf (III)
• R&D is not sufficient. – Valley of death needs to be bridged
• Government supported market formation to ensure diffusion that enables learning by doing– Public procurement– Market share requirements (e.g., green certificates,
portfolios)– Technology specific support (subsidies)
• EU biofuels directive and green certificates
versus
• Subsidies
”Governments should not pick the winners” – but how?
CONCLUSION (I)
The important thing with near-term action is not only the actual reductions that are made, but equally important, the extent to which the policy puts us in a position where it is politically feasible to negotiate, adopt and meet even stronger targets for subsequent abatement periods.
Our climate policies need not only to be cost-efficient but they must also bring new technologies to the shelf.
CONCLUSION (II)
• Price incentives for cost efficient carbon abatement at present (changing the technologies we pick from the shelf).
• Technology specific policies to enable future reductions (bringing new technologies to the shelf).
• Subsidies warranted only when learning can be expected and the technology is promising.
CONCLUSION (III)
Let a hundred flowers bloom strategy
Governments should consider the possibility to initiate large-scale programs, individually or jointly, as part of the UNFCCC/Kyoto protocol negotiations to develop the more advanced energy technologies that are required to meet the long-term objective of the UNCCC
CO2-concentration and temperature
Per capita emissions under contraction and convergence by 2050
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
tC/c
ap/y
ear The European
Union
China
550 ppm
450 ppm
350 ppm
Criteria by which near-term policiesshould be judged
• Actual abatement• Development of institutions and mechanisms• Impact on technology development• Impact on actors
Department of Physical Resource Theory
Department of Physical Resource Theory
Let 2000-2010 the decade of great experiments and failures – tentative list
Solar PV Solar thermal electric Solar heat (building integrated as standard)
Wind (continued 25%/growth, plus large scale testing of off-shoreCO2 sequestration (demonstration plants + storage)Zero energy for heating houses Gasification of biomass and coal for h2, MeOH & DMEEthanol from woody biomassPrepare for the hydrogen future:
NG pipelines should be H2 compatibleFuel cells in cars, buses and local CHPStorage technologies
Nuclear share of electricity production
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
EUUSAJAPAN
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999
Renewables
Coal
Oil and gas
Nuclear Fusion
Fission
US public R&D expenditures
Japanese public R&D expenditures
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
Bill
ion
US
$
Other
Conservation
Nuclear
Fossil
Renewables
OECD public R&D expenditures on energy
Photovoltaics costs and sales