chp in the e3 ghg model proposed changes for stage 2 april 1, 2008
TRANSCRIPT
CHP in the E3 GHG Model Proposed Changes for Stage 2
April 1, 2008
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Process Notes
Presentation describes the E3 proposed approach for including CHP in Stage 2
Hoping for consensus on reference case cost, performance, and penetration inputs
Sensitivity analysis can be done by users and inputs can be changed to evaluate alternative cases
All parties will have the opportunity to comment
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Agenda CHP in E3 Stage 1 Model
Key CHP issues CHP regulatory status under AB32
Data availability
Thermal/electric split
On-site/grid export split
E3 Proposed Stage 2 model changes Existing CHP
Adding new CHP
Reference case cost & performance assumptions
EPUC/CAC proposed assumptions
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CHP in Stage 1 Model
Stage 1 model contains the CHP units that are in the WECC databases
Stage 1 model does not specify CHP generation as a separate category
Stage 1 model does not have a way to add new CHP generation
Parties requested E3 to add CHP as separate category
E3 requested help from parties in identifying CHP units in the WECC databases
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CHP Regulatory Status under AB32
CARB’s GHG inventory treats CHP as a separate category from non-CHP generation
However, CARB considers part of CHP emissions to be included in CA’s “electricity sector” - i.e. all those that are not associated with “useful thermal output”
Currently, CARB considers emissions associated with “useful thermal output” to be point source emissions, not electricity sector emissions, so separately regulated
CARB reviewing approach to CHP regulation and reporting - status could change
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Data Availability
Major data shortcomings for CA CHP No single source that has capacity, generation, and
emissions for all CA CHP
Different capacity size cutoffs for different databases
Little reliable data for small (<1 MW) CHP
WECC databases don’t identify CHP units
Difficult to match EIA Form 920 list to WECC names
Unclear if WECC CHP heat rates are net or gross
E3 model makes assumptions about existing CHP based on best available data
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Thermal/Electric Split
Emissions for thermal and electric regulated separately under current scheme
CARB inventory split based on EIA Form 920 (generation & fuel use) and predecessor data
EIA methodology changed ca. 2003, changing the split significantly CARB emissions % electric 1990-2003: 63%
CARB emissions % electric 2004: 78%
What is a reasonable thermal / electric split?
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On-Site/Grid Export Split
EIA and CARB do not distinguish on-site (i.e. behind the meter) from grid export generation
CEC estimates on-site non-PV generation in load forecast, data reliability and overlap with EIA/CARB data uncertain
Plexos does not model on-site generation
What is reasonable assumption for on-site/grid export split for existing CHP fleet?
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Proposed Changes in Stage 2 Model
Add CHP as new generation option
Account for CHP generation and emissions separately from non-CHP generation
Provide user controls for cost, performance, and penetration assumptions for user cases
Provide user controls for thermal/electric and on-site/on-grid splits for user cases
Separate treatment of existing and new CHP
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Existing CHP in Stage 2 Model On-site CHP: generation already embedded in load
forecast so no adjustment is necessary
On-grid CHP: many CHP units are not identified in WECC database, so CHP fleet generation is underestimated in the Plexos model
This is corrected by adjusting CHP fleet generation and emissions to hit expected values based on historical data Existing CHP generation and emissions in Plexos summarized,
then adjusted in E3 calculator to expected value
Non-CHP generation decremented by the same amount in E3 calculator
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CHP Data for 2003 & 20042004 2003 Source
CHP generation GWh
43,282 44,900 EIA Form 906/920
CHP electric fuel MMBtu
421,705 (78%)
335,959 (63%)
EIA Form 906/920
CHP thermal fuel MMBtu
121,074 191,390 EIA Form 906/920
CHP total emission MMT
30.09 29.67 CARB Inventory
CHP electric emissions MMT
23.55 (78%)
18.71 (63%)
CARB Inventory
CHP thermal emissions MMT
6.54 10.96 CARB Inventory
Non-PV self-generation GWh
11,288 12,473 CEC Load Forecast
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CA CHP Capacity by Unit Size
Source: EEA database, 2006 data
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Existing CHP Expected Values Units < 5 MW (380 MW, 30% c.f.) generation estimated
at 1000 GWh, assumed all on-site
CEC self-gen ~ 11,000 GWh, so ~ 10,000 GWh from units > 5 MW and 1,000 GWh from units < 5 MW
10-year average EIA total CHP generation and CARB emissions show no trend, so can use for expected CHP generation: 44,000 GWh
emissions: 30 MMT
electric share of generation and emissions: 63%
Use CHP net heat rate implied in EIA data to be consistent with CARB’s present methodology; however, calculator will track thermal fuel use efficiency proposed by CAC/EPUC
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Existing CHP Expected Values
Expected CHP* Split
CHP Generation GWh 44,000On-site GWh 11,000 25%
> 5 MW 10,000< 5 MW 1,000
On-grid GWh 33,000 75%> 5 MW 33,000< 5 MW 0
Total CHP Emissions MMT 30.0Electric Emissions MMT 18.9 63%
On-site MMT 4.7On-grid MMT 14.2
Thermal Emissions MMT 11.1 37%
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Formulation of Existing CHP Adjustment
Expected CHP*
PLEXOS CHP
PLEXOS Non-CHP Adjustment
E3 Calculator
CHP
E3 Calculator Non-CHP
Generation GWh 44,000On-site GWh 11,000On-grid GWh 33,000
Total CHP Emissions MMT 30.0Electric Emissions MMT 18.9
On-site MMT 4.7On-grid MMT 14.2
Thermal Emissions MMT 11.1
*Based on 10-year average (1995-2004) of EIA generation and CARB emissions, rounded.
Col A Col B Col C Col D =A-B
Col E= B+D= A
Col F= C-D
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New CHP in Stage 2 Model
Two categories of new CHP > 5 MW nameplate = “Large” CHP (cogen)
< 5 MW nameplate = “Small” CHP (self-gen)
Division at 5 MW based on SGIP criteria
Characteristics of large CHP represented by 40 MW gas turbine
Characteristics of small CHP represented by 3 MW gas reciprocating engine
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E3 Proposed2020 BAU Reference Case AssumptionsBusiness as Usual Forecast of New CHP 2008 - 2020
<5MW CHP >5MW CHP Source
Nameplate Capacity (MW) 175 0 Derived based on 100% on peak contribution
Peak load reduction (MW) 175 0 CEC Forecast '08-'18 Forecast, Form 1.4, pg 42
Behind the meter usage (GWh) 1035 0 CEC Forecast '08-'18 Forecast, Form 1.2, pg 40
Exported to Grid (GWh) 0 0Capacity Factor 67.5% 0 Calculated from CEC Forecast
% Electricity Consumed On-site 100% 0MMBtu Fuel (thermal and electric) 9,059,648 0 Calculated from Gross Heat Rate
Total CHP Emissions (thermal and electric) MMt 0.48 0MMBtu Fuel Thermal 3,301,854 0 Assumed Thermal Use of Fuel
MMBtu Fuel Electric 5,757,795 0 Assumed Electric Use of Fuel
Electric CO2 emissions, lbs/MWh 651 0 Calculated
Electric CO2 emissions, MMt 0.31 0 Calculated
Electric CO2 emissions, off-grid MMt 0.31 0 Calculated
Electric CO2 emissions, on-grid MMt - 0 Calculated
Avoided Thermal Consumption, MMBtu 4,127,317 0Avoided Thermal emissions, MMt 0.22 0Net Emissions = Total - Avoided Thermal MMt 0.26 0Net Electric CO2 emissions w/ Thermal Credit lbs/MWh 557 0
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E3 Proposed2020 Aggressive Ref Case Assumptions
Aggressive Policy Case Forecast of CHP 2008 - 2020<5MW CHP >5MW CHP Source
Nameplate Capacity (MW) 1,574 394 CEC 2005 Potential Study; Base Case
Peak load reduction (MW) 1,574 394 Derived assuming 100% on peak contribution
Behind the meter usage (GWh) 9,307 733 Calculated using percent of use on-site
Exported to Grid (GWh) - 2,200 Calculated using percent of use on-site
Capacity Factor 67.5% 85% See below
% Electricity Consumed On-site 100% 25% See below
MMBtu Fuel (thermal and electric) 81,433,910 26,007,463 Calculated from Gross Heat Rate
Total CHP Emissions (thermal and electric) MMt 4.32 1.38 Calculated
MMBtu thermal 29,679,170 8,856,913 Assumed Thermal Use of Fuel
MMBtu electric 51,754,740 17,150,551 Assumed Electric Use of Fuel
CO2 emissions, lbs/MWh 651 684 Calculated
Electric CO2 emissions, MMt 2.75 0.91 Calculated
Electric CO2 emissions, off-grid MMt 2.75 0.23 Calculated
Electric CO2 emissions, on-grid MMt - 0.68 Calculated
Avoided Thermal Consumption, MMBtu 37,098,963 11,071,141 Avoided Thermal emissions, MMt 1.97 0.59 Net Emissions = Total - Avoided Thermal MMt 2.35 0.79 Net Electric CO2 emissions w/ Thermal Credit lbs/MWh 557 596
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E3 ProposedNew CHP Cost and Performance Assumptions
Cost and Emissions Assumptions for CHP<5MW CHP >5MW CHP
Assumed Technology 3MW Gas Recip40MW Gas Turbine w/ CHPSource
Installed Cost $/kW 925$ 680$ CEC 2005 Potential Study
Emissions Control (AT) Cost $/kW 175$ 75$ CEC 2005 Potential Study
Total Installed Cost $/kW 1,100$ 755$ Calculated
Total Installed Cost $2008/kW 1,753$ 1,203$ Consistent Inflation Assumption
Gross Heat Rate, Btu/kWh 8,750 8,865 CEC 2005 Potential Study
Net Electric Heat Rate, Btu/kWh 5,561 5,846 CEC 2005 Potential Study
Thermal Output, Btu/kWh 3,198 3,019 CEC 2005 Potential Study
Assumptions <5MW CHP >5MW CHP Source
Peak load reduction 100% 100% Assumption
Capacity Factor 67% 85% <5MW CEC '08-'18 forecast; >5MW Assumption
% Electric used on-site 100% 25% Assumption based on CEC Load Forecast and EIA
Fuel for Electricity 64% 66% <5MW CEC Forecast; >5MW 2003 EIA
Fuel for Thermal 36% 34% Calculated
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EPUC/CAC New CHP Data2008 2020 2008 2020
Mo d e l C HP P la n t sSiz e MW e le c 2.409 2.409 49.116 49.116Ty p eCo st o f Pr im e Mo v e r & A u x iliar ie s $ 1,200,000 1,200,000 27,300,000 26,500,000 Co st o f He at Re c o v e r y $ 500,000 500,000 14,500,000 14,000,000 In st allati o n Co st $ 500,000 500,000 6,200,000 6,200,000 To t al Co st $ 2,200,000 2,200,000 48,000,000 46,700,000 To t al In st alle d Co st $/k W 913 913 977 951O&M Co st $/k Wh 0.0120 0.0010 0.0083 0.0080 Ho u r s o f Fu ll Lo ad Op e r ati o n h r s 6500 6500 8000 8000Cap ac it y Fac t o r % 74% 74% 91% 91%Ele c t r ic Effi c ie n c y (LHV) % 43.08% 43.96% 40.11% 41.76%Th e r m al Effi c ie n c y (LHV) % 39.34% 40.66% 40.75% 42.31%To t al Effi c ie n c y (LHV) % 82.42% 84.62% 80.86% 84.07%Fu e l Co n su m p ti o n MW 5.592 5.480 122.454 117.620Ov e r all He at Rat e Bt u /k Wh 7923 7765 8509 8173Th e r m al Ou t p u t MW 2.200 2.228 49.896 49.762Use f u l A n n u al Th e r m al Ou t p u t MMBt u 48806 49427 1362360 1358702A n n u al Ne t Po w e r Ou t p u t MMBt u 53442 53442 1341063 1341063A n n u al CO2 Em issio n s MTCO2 7300 7154 196734 188968
S p lit o f t h e C O2 b e t w e e n t h e r m a l a n d e le c t r icDisp lac e d B o ile r Fu e l Co n su m p ti o n * Bt u /k Wh 3882 3882 3882 3882He at Rat e A sso c iat e d w it h E le c t r ic Pr o d u c ti o n Bt u /k Wh 4041 3883 4627 4291Ele c t r ic CO2 Em issio n s/MWh lb 523 503 599 556Th e r m al CO2 Em issio n s/MWh lb 503 503 503 503Em issio n s f r o m E le c t r ic it y Pr o d u c ti o n MTCO2 3723 3577 106981 99215Em issio n s f r o m Th e r m al Ou t p u t MTCO2 3577 3577 89753 89753
Gas En g in e , HEX Gas Tu r b in e , WHB
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EPUC/CAC Existing CHP DataData Sources For Calculations: Year 2003 EIA-906 and EIA-860 And SCE 2003 QF Efficiency Monitoring Data*
Allocated Electric
Fuel Consumption (MMBtu) Net Electric Generation
Heat Rate
CA Statewide EIA Data for 2003 Total Electric Thermal MWh (Btu/kWh) Natural Gas/Refinery Gas/Refinery Related 410,763,392 259,454,952 151,308,440 37,502,430 6,918 2003 CA Statewide Fuel Consumption Ratios: Total To MWh Electric To MWh Thermal To MWh Natural Gas/Refinery Gas/Refinery Related 10.9530 6.9184 4.0346 Allocated Electric
Fuel Consumption (MMBtu) Net Electric Generation
Heat Rate
SCE QF Monitoring Data for 2003 Total Electric Thermal MWh Percent (Btu/kWh) Oil & Gas Industry Related (Large Projects) 144,301,419 68,527,699 75,773,720 11,847,453 77.2% 5,784 Small Projects High Efficiency (<50 MWa) 965,748 338,923 626,824 61,921 0.4% 5,474 Small Projects Low Efficiency (<50 MWa) 36,459,726 28,562,346 7,897,381 3,442,076 22.4% 8,298 Total Natural Gas/Refinery Gas/Refinery Related 181,726,893 97,428,968 84,297,925 15,351,450 100.0% 6,347 2003 SCE Data Fuel Consumption Ratios: Total To MWh Electric To MWh Thermal To MWh Total Natural Gas/Refinery Gas/Refinery Related 11.8378 6.3466 5.4912 Range of Fuel to MWh Ratios for SCE Data 10.5923 to 15.5965 5.4735 to 8.2978 2.2944 to 10.1230
Thank YouAny Questions?