chipotle mexican grill (cmg) stock recommendation tracy britt sws co-founder smartwomansecurities ©...
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Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
Stock Recommendation
Tracy BrittSWS Co-Founder
smartwomansecurities
© 2006 Smart Woman Securities. All materials are for SWS
members’ use only
march 17, 2007
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Chipotle (CMG)
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The Story• Started in 1993• Subsidiary of MCD• IPO in January 2006• Food with integrity• Transforming casual
dining
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The People
• CEO – Steve Ells• Low turnover
relative to industry
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• Rivalry: Qdoba, Other Casual Dining• Barriers to Entry: Capital, Concept,
Failure• Substitutes: Very Easy to Substitute• Supplier Power: Not Relevant• Buyer Power: Becoming Stronger,
Use of Organic Market, Expansion of All-Natural and Organic
Porter’s Five Forces
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• IPO in January 2006 at $22– Doubled in one day to $45
• Currently trading at $41• 52 week high/low: $49/$22• Short term expected target to remain
in the $35-$45, but expect long term to rise to $55
Technical Analysis
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Fundamental Analysis
Company EPS Growth % P/E
Cheesecake Factory Inc 20.0 24.8
Starbucks Corp 19.7 41.1
P.F. Chang's China Bistro Inc 18.9 27.7
Brinker International Inc 18.6 16.3
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc 18.5 38.0
Wendy's International Inc 15.4 22.4
Outback Steakhouse Inc 11.7 19.3
Yum! Brands Inc 10.6 15.7
Darden Restaurants Inc 10.3 17.4
McDonald's Corp 9.6 14.4
• $470.7 million of sales in 2004 and we sales rose more than 29%, to over $610 million, in 2005
• No long term debt• Current ratio of 3.8
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Revenue Growth
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Average Store Sales
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Store Growth
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Same Store Sales Growth
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Investment Risks
• Transition from MCD• Margin Issues• Changing Trends• Health Concerns• Organic/Natural Products, i.e. Input
Costs
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Investment Opportunities
• Strength of Concept• Market Readiness for “Food with
Integrity”• Growth of Casual Dining• Demonstrated Growth of CMG• Market Response to IPO• Financial Metrics and Growth Going
Forward
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Investment Recommendation
• Despite the current valuation of the stock, we believe that CMG will excel in the coming years in response to the growing casual dining segment and an emphasis on natural eating. We rate the stock as a BUY at market price and recommend that Smart Woman Securities invest in the entity.
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Q&A