17 Energy (supplies, policy, economics, forecasts)

The aim of the present paper is to develop and apply a software tool for designing hybrid renewable energy systems. The hybrid system consists of a wind generator and photovoltaic modules which are the renewable technologies for energy production. The programme has been applied for simulating a hybrid system with the above mentioned technologies in order cover the electricity and water needs of the Merssini village on Donoussa island in the Aegean Sea of Greece. The Merssini village is occupied by 20 year-round residents while the population is doubled during the summer period. The village is non-electrified and faces a problematic scarcity of fresh water. In the analysis that follows, the considered technical data as well as the results of programme runs for winter and summer seasons are presented. The electricity consumption consists of both the household and desalination plant consumption. The system is supplemented with batteries and a micro hydraulic plant for energy storage. The simulation programme was used to optimize the design of the system as well as to manage the energy supply and energy storage. The results prove that this simulation programme constitutes a valuable tool for the determination not only of the optimum combination of technologies, but also the optimum energy management of complex hybrid systems.

02/01746 Assessment of energy efficiency measures: The case of the Lebanese energy sector Chedid, R. et al. International Journal of Energy Research, 2001.25, (4), 355-314. This paper examines in detail the electric energy sector in Lebanon on the levels of the both the supply and end-use sides. The aim of the study is to assess the feasibility of implementing some energy efficiency options in the country. For this purpose, baseline scenarios will be first developed to examine the effects of government policies with regard to the energy balance, and then energy efficiency scenarios will be built for the residential, commercial and industrial sectors. Feasible options will be highlighted and recommendations to remove barriers hindering the fast penetration of energy efficiency programmes in the Lebanese energy sector will be provided. Throughout the analysis, uncertainties related to factors such as discount rates, demand growth and technology penetration rates will be treated by defining lower and upper bounds on their variations, and will be accommodated through scenario-type analysis.

02lOl747 Can urban form affect transportation energy use and emissions? Kanaroglou, P.S. and South, R. Energy Studies Review, 1999.9, (2), 22- 40. The debate on the type of urban form that is the most efficient with respect to transportation energy consumption and the associated pollutant emissions has produced ambiguous results. This paper contributes to the debate through an analysis of the efficiency of simulated urban forms for the time period 1991-2021 with the help of IMULATE, an Integrated Transportation and Land Use Model for the Hamilton Census Metropolitan Area. The urban forms analysed are obtained by varying the spatial distribution of the projected household growth in the region. The status quo is compared to a compact urban form and to two multi-nucleated forms. The results, albeit ambiguous, demonstrate that the way future scenarios are developed can have a significant impact on inferences drawn from such studies.

02/01746 China’s energy policy in transition: pressures and constraints Andrews-Speed, P. The Journal of Energy Literature, 2001, 7, (2), 3-34. In any country, but particularly in a transition economy, energy policy comprises two components: measures to address short-term goals in the energy sector, and longer-term policies to reform the sector. Whilst the nature of the short-term measures are quite likely to be driven by energy considerations, any long-term policies for substantial reform of the energy sector may be driven and constrained by force from outside the sector. This article provides an analysis of China’s evolving energy policy, identifying a range of factors which appear to influence the formulation and implementation of long-term energy policy in China. Such factors include a range of political, institutional and policy considerations, many of which lie outside the energy sector. Their influence is examined through a number of case studies: the changing structure of the energy sector; the formulation of energy policy; security of energy supply; and energy conservation and energy efficiency. The analysis explains why the Chinese government has made relatively little progress in reforming the energy sector, and seemingly prefers to undertake periodic ad-hoc adjustments rather than to formulate a coherent strategy. At present there is little sign that the government’s approach will change in the near future.

02lOl749 Combined heat and power plant effects on CO* emission: Case study of the University of Perugla Bidini, G. and Di Maria, F. Internntionrrl Journal qf Energy Research, 2001, 25, (I), 29-40.

In this work the COz emissions due to the University of Perugia’s energy needs have been evaluated. Perugia is a city set in the middle of Italy, in the ‘Umbria’ region, with a population of about 1 400 OOB people. The University of this city was founded in 1260 and nowadays consists of eleven Faculties with 30 008 students and about 1200 teachers. The energy needs of the University are mainly due to thermal and electrical users. In particular, the thermal consumption is strictly connected to building heating m the autumn-winter months. The reduction of COz emissions is one of the main goals that developed countries have established to be achieved in the next few years, not only related to the Kyoto treated goals, but also for increasing economical and industrial production with a sustainable development concept. Carbon dioxide is not strictly a toxic substance, hut makes a large contribution to the ‘greenhouse effect’ with negative repercussions for the environment. For these reasons the possibility of satisfying the University of Perugia’s energy needs by the adoption of one, of more, cogeneration power plant fuelled by natural gas, opportunely located at the University, has been evaluated both in terms of energy production and of CO* emission reduction. This study also takes into account the experiences of the cogeneration power plant that is in operation at the Engineering Faculty of Perugia University. The results have been compared with the Regional Energetic Development Planning for evaluating the influence of the University’s energy needs and emissions on the whole region.

02/01750 Energy demand in the fifteen European Union countries by 2010 - A forecasting model based on the decomposition approach Sun, J.W. Energy, 2001, 26, (6). 549-560. This paper develops a forecasting model based on the complete decomposition method. The forecasting model allows the trend effect, the rebound effect and dematerialization/materialization to be esti- mated. To demonstrate the model, a case analysis of the probable energy demand in the 15 European Union (EU) countries up to 2010 has been made. The results show that the aggregate energy demand in the 15 EU countries by the end of 2010 will have increased from 258 to 426 Mtoe compared to the 1997 level, and dematerialization will have increased from 73 to 225 Mtoe.

02lO1751 Energ ceramic sector. x

saving technologies in the European systematic overview

Agrafiotis, C. and Tsoutsos, T. Applied Thermal Engineering, 2001, 21, (l2), 1231-1249. After the energy crisis of the 198Os, many energy-efficient technologies were introduced into the European ceramic industry sector, resulting in significant energy reduction together with reduction of production time and cost. In the present review, these energy-saving technologies are presented and analysed. After a brief introduction on the current status and the typical products of the European ceramic sector, the general ceramic production flow-chart common to all ceramic industries is outlined and the energy-efficient technologies introduced per subsector and per stage of the ceramic production process are described. Finally, an assessment of these technologies is presented and the trends for the future discussed.

02/01752 Long-term energy demand predictions based on short-term measured data C$fsson, T. and Andersson, S. Energy and Buildings, 2001, 33, (2). 85-

In order to obtain long-term predictions based on short-term data, a neural network model was developed. The model parameters are indoor and outdoor temperature difference and energy for heating and internal use. For purposes of training the neural network model a method for extending the measured data to represent an annual variation is proposed. The method has been applied on six single-family buildings. Based on access to data from 2 to 5 weeks, the deviation between predicted and measured diurnal energy demand on an annual basis was about 4% with a correlation of 90-95%, when access to the indoor and outdoor temperature difference was assumed. For models based on access to data from the warmest periods with a very small heating demand, the deviation was about 2-4 times larger.

02/01753 Major auxiliary equipment needs for the world energy network project Taniguchi, H. ef al. Energy Conversion and Management, 2001,42, (15- 17). 1831-1837. Many national energy projects have been pursued in Japan. Some of them are very important to control the emission of COz from fossil fuel. The world energy network (WE-NET) project based on a hydrogen combustion gas turbine is one of the national projects and has a high target of thermal efficiency up to 60% or more (HHV). However, this new technology has to be developed by an application of a combined cycle for gas and steam turbines and special auxiliary equipment such as an oxygen supply plant and heat exchangers. The hydrogen combustion gas turbine will be operated by pure hydrogen

220 Fuel and Energy Abstracts May 2002