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Opportunies to improve profits CHINA’ S SOLAR PV VALUE CHAIN Spring 2011 MAJOR PARTNERS STRATEGIC PARTNER GENERAL PARTNERS COMPOSITE TECHNOLOGY C O R P O R A T I O N

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Opportuniti es to improve profi ts

CHINA’ S SOLAR PV VALUE CHAIN

Spring 2011

MAJOR PARTNERS

Pantone: 286UR:45 G:88 B:167C:90 M:73 Y:1 K:0

STRATEGIC PARTNER

GENERAL PARTNERS

COMPOSITETECHNOLOGYC O R P O R A T I O N

ADVISORS

 

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About  the  China  Greentech  Initiative  

Founded   in  2008,   the  China  Greentech   Initiative   (CGTI)  Partner  Program  has  rapidly  grown  to  become  the   only   China-­‐international   collaboration   platform   of   100+   organizations,   focused   on   identifying,  developing  and  promoting  green  technology  solutions  in  China.  Partnering  organizations  are  technology  buyers  and  sellers,  service  providers,   investors,  policy  makers  and   influencers.  Sector  tracks  addressed  during  the  2011  CGTI  Partner  Program  include  Cleaner  Conventional  Energy,  Renewable  Energy,  Electric  Power  Infrastructure,  Green  Building,  Cleaner  Transportation  and  Clean  Water.    

Built  on   two  cornerstones,   strategic  market   research  and  a  community  of  300+   industry  experts,  CGTI  provides   participating   organizations  with   three   core   benefits:  world   class  market   insights   that   enable  better  decisions,  meaningful   relationships   that   lead   to  business  opportunities,  and   thought   leadership  and  education  that  position  participants  as  leaders  in  China’s  greentech  markets.    

In   addition   to   the   Partner   Program,   CGTI   offers   Advisory   Services,   conducts   briefings   and   publishes  public   content,   including   White   Papers   and   the   annual   China   Greentech   Report.   The   flagship   China  Greentech  Report,   released  at   the  World   Economic   Forum,   together  with   the  China  Greentech  Report  2011,  have  more  than  60,000  copies  in  use  globally  and  have  helped  establish  CGTI  as  the  authority  on  China’s  ever  evolving  greentech  markets.  

 

 

 

Renewable  Energy  Sector  Definition    

 

The  China  Greentech  Initiative  defines  Renewable  Energy  as  energy  produced  from  sources  that  are  naturally  replenishing,  such  as  sunlight,  wind,  waves,  underground  heat,  surface  water  flows  and  biomass.  Of  these,  CGTI  focuses  on  the  markets  and  technology  for  wind  power,  solar  energy  and  bioenergy  (including  power,  cooling  and  heating).      

   

 

 

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Executive  Summary  

Given   current   challenges   in   world   solar   markets,   China’s   solar   photovoltaic   (PV)   producers   seek  opportunities   to   reduce   costs   and   preserve   gross  margins   through   vertical   integration   and   industry  consolidation.    

Solar  producers  face  uncertain  times:  While  global  solar  PV  markets  may  continue  to  grow,  rapidly  falling  prices,  unstable  subsidy  schemes  and  module  oversupply  result  in  falling  margins  across  the  value  chain.  Low-­‐cost  Chinese  producers  are  raising  production  capacity  to  new  records,  in  turn  driving  down  selling   prices   and   margins.   At   the   same   time,   as   domestic   competition   increases,   the   pressure   to  increase   profits   and  market   share   has   intensified.   China’s   historically   fragmented   solar   industry,  with  hundreds   of   small   players   across   the   value   chain,   are   looking   for   strategies   to   strengthen   financial  performance,   including   vertical   integration   and   capacity   expansion,   which   is   already  widespread,   and  industry  consolidation.  While  the  number  of  manufacturers  in  China  may  not  decline  in  the  short-­‐term,  stakeholders  should  expect  the  top-­‐tier  players,  with  strong  cost  advantages,  to  continue  to  grow  in  size  and  market   share.   Thus   far,   however,   vertical   integration   and   expanding   production   capacity   do   not  appear   to  guarantee  profitability.  Companies  must  also  seek   innovative  strategies  and  partnerships   to  stay  ahead  of  the  market.    

 

Definition  and  Scope  

This  White  Paper  focuses  on  opportunities  for  companies  to  reduce  costs  and  improve  profitability  along  the  solar  PV  value  chain  in  China.  The  value  chain  includes  seven  segments:    

 The  White  Paper  does  not   cover   thin   film  PV  or   concentrated  PV  due   to   their   relatively   small   current  market  share  in  China.  The  White  Paper  begins  with  an  overview  of  global  solar  market  conditions,  and  then   explores   opportunities   and   trends   for   vertical   integration   and   industry   consolidation   (horizontal  integration).  

Industry  Consolidation  (horizontal  integration)  occurs  when  the  number  of  companies  involved  declines  as  successful  companies  grow  in  size  and  smaller  companies  are  either  bought  out  or  go  out  of  business.  Consolidation  is  particularly  common  for  high-­‐tech  industries  with  high  barriers  to  entry,  who  focus  on  the  importance  of  reaching  economies  of  scale  in  production.  Many  experts  anticipate  consolidation  in  China’s   solar   industry,   particularly   in   the   commoditized   module   segment   of   the   value   chain,   which  currently  has  hundreds  of  competitors.    

Vertical   Integration   occurs  when   companies   acquire   new  production   or   service   capabilities   along   the  value   chain,   in   either   an   upstream   or   downstream   manner   relative   to   their   core   competency.   For  example,   a   company   that   produces   solar   cells   may   vertically   integrate   upstream   by   producing  polysilicon,  or  integrate  downstream  by  producing  solar  modules  or  systems.      

Polysilicon   Ingots   Wafers   Cells   Modules   Systems   Projects  

 

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Market  Context  

Subsidy  cuts  slow  growth  in  European  markets,  while  solar  PV  demand  grows  in  non-­‐European  markets  

Following   a   year   of   robust   global   growth   in   2010   with   16.6   GW   of   installed   capacity,   solar   PV  continued   its   rapid   expansion   in   2011.   Established   European   markets,   such   as   Germany   and   Italy,  continued   to   account   for   the   majority   of   early   2011   installations   representing   up   to   60%   of   market  demand.1  Due  to  recent  subsidy  cuts,  however,  total  demand  in  Europe  is  falling.  Italy,  for  example,  has  made   capped   funding   for   large-­‐scale   installations,   reduced   feed-­‐in   tariffs   beginning   in   2012,   and  removed   all   tax   breaks   for   solar   production   and   installation.   At   the   beginning   of   2011,   uncertainties  surrounding   these  new  policies   resulted   in  a  dramatic   slow-­‐down   in   installations  and  an  accumulating  module  inventory  in  Italy  reaching  nearly  3  GW.2  Feed-­‐in  tariffs  have  also  been  cut  in  the  Czech  Republic,  France  and  Spain.  The  impact  of  subsidy  cuts  may  be  less  drastic  than  feared  in  the  world’s   largest  PV  market,  Germany,   following  the  decision  to  decommission  all  nuclear  power  plants  by  2022.  Germany  currently   obtains   23%   of   electricity   from   nuclear   power,   leaving   room   for   new   renewable   energy  capacity  development.3  German  installations,  however,  declined  32%  from  2010  as  a  result  of  a  13%  cut  in  the  country’s  favorable  feed-­‐in  tariff,  potentially  due  to  falling  PV  equipment  prices.4  

Global   solar   PV  demand,  while   recently   concentrated   in   Europe,   is   diversifying   as   a   result   of   the  growing   interest   in   low-­‐carbon  energy  sources,  concerns  raised  by   the  March  2011  nuclear  disaster   in  Japan,  and  rapidly  dropping  module  prices,  which  has  accelerated  the  discussion  of  “grid-­‐parity”  cost  for  solar.  State-­‐based  incentives  in  California,  New  Jersey  and  Texas  may  make  the  U.S.  the  fastest  growing  market,  with  241%  growth  in  2010.5  Other  incentives  and  policy  mandates  are  driving  demand  in  other  new  markets.  For  example,  Ontario,  Canada  has   introduced  a  feed-­‐in  tariff   for  projects  under  10  MW,  Japan   has   increased   emphasis   on   solar   development   through   a   residential   feed-­‐in   tariff   scheme,   and  India  has  established  a  20  GW  installation  target  for  2020.  

Long   a   major   exporter   of   solar   modules,   China   looks   set   to   develop   its   domestic   market   and  become  one  of  Asia’s  largest  solar  energy  producers.  By  the  end  of  2010,  China  had  860  MW  of  installed  solar   power   capacity,  whereas   it   produced  nearly   8  GW  of  modules   annually.   This   imbalance   has   left  China’s  solar  producers  vulnerable  to  fluctuations  in  overseas  markets.  The  government,  which  supports  domestic   PV   manufacturers,   has   recognized   this   and   is   working   to   ensure   a   continued   demand   for  domestically-­‐produced  modules   through   the   creation   of   feed-­‐in-­‐tariff   policies.   This   is   in-­‐line  with   the  central  government’s   focus  on  reducing  carbon  emissions  and   improving  environmental  conditions,  as  emphasized  in  the  current  12th  Five-­‐Year  Plan.  The  plan,  which  lays  out  China’s  policy  priorities  for  the  

                                                                                                                         

1  European  Photovoltaic  Industry  Association  (EPIA),  “Global  market  outlook  for  photovoltaics  until  2015,”  May,  2011  2  Osborne,  Mark,  “Italy  has  a  new  FiT,”  PV-­‐Tech,  May  6,  2011,  www.pv-­‐tech.org  3  The  Guardian,  “Germany  pledges  nuclear  shutdown  by  2022,”  May  30,  2011,  www.guardian.co.uk  4  Hughes,  Emma,  “Germany  Feed-­‐in  Tariffs,”  PV-­‐Tech,  Dec.  13,  2010,  www.pv-­‐tech.org  5  Solar  Energy  Industries  Association  (SEIA),  “Solar  Policies”,  www.seia.org,  (accessed  on  May  9,  2011)  

 

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2011-­‐2015  period,  targets  10  GW  of  solar  power  by  2015  and  50  GW  by  2020.6  Exactly  how  China  will  achieve  these  ambitious  targets  remains  to  be  seen,  but  given  the  rapid  growth  experienced  in  the  wind  industry,  few  doubt  China’s  ability  to  meet  its  targets.7  

Production  capacity  may  exceed  demand  by  6  GW  in  2011,  fueling  fears  of  oversupply  While  demand  for  solar  modules  and  systems  has  increased,  production  capacity  is  growing  at  an  

even   faster   rate.   In   2010,   production   capacity   outpaced   demand   by   over   1   GW   and,   in   2011,   this  discrepancy  may  grow  to  as  much  as  6  GW.8  Much  of  the  26  GW  of  predicted  new  supply  comes  from  Chinese   producers,   whose   astounding   expansion   plans   will   account   for   80%   of   global   production  capacity   growth,   while   recognizing   that   economies   of   scale   are   important   for   eventual   success.   This  sentiment  was  echoed  by  one  CGTI   interviewee  who  noted   that  manufacturers  producing   less   than  1  GW  per   year  will   not   survive.  By   the  end  of  2011,  Chinese   companies  may  produce  almost  16  GW  of  solar  PV,  or  roughly  60%  of  global  capacity,  up  from  50%  in  2010,  and  only  8%  in  2005.9    

 

Leading  Chinese  players  JA  Solar  and  LDK  Solar  exemplify  this  trend.  LDK  Solar  plans  to  more  than  double  its  wafer  production  capacity  from  2009  levels  of  1.8  GW  to  4  GW  by  the  end  of  2011,  while  JA  Solar  hopes  to  reach  2.2  GW  of  solar  cell  and  module  capacity  by  the  beginning  of  2012.10  

                                                                                                                         

6  EPIA,  “Global  market  outlook  for  photovoltaics  until  2015,”  May,  2011  7  China  Greentech  Initiative  (CGTI)  Partner  interviews  8  EPIA,  “Global  market  outlook  for  photovoltaics  until  2015,”  May,  2011  9  Ibid.  10  CGTI  analysis  

 

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This  rapid  acceleration  has  had  multiple  effects  on  the  industry.  The  first  is  a  significant  decline  in  average  selling  prices  (ASPs)  globally.  Between  May  2010  and  February  2011,  ASPs  dropped  by  16%  on  average.  Since  the  beginning  of  2011,  cell  and  module  ASPs  have  fallen  by  a  staggering  30%.11  Crystalline  silicon  (c-­‐Si)  solar  cell  ASPs  are  approaching  the  US$  1/W  mark,  their  lowest  price  to  date,  with  modules  dipping  below  US$  1.50/W.12  The   second  effect   is   a   growing   fear   of   oversupply   spreading   throughout  the  industry,  particularly  as  European  countries  scale  back  the  costliest  subsidy  programs.  The  degree  of  overcapacity  that  will  be  created   is   in  dispute,  depending  on  the  ability  of  manufacturers  to  trim  back  expansion   plans   or   the   variable   effects   of   newly-­‐introduced   subsidies   on   the   market.   At   any   rate,  oversupply  fears  could  accelerate  further  declines  in  ASPs,  which  would  hurt  the  financial  performance  of  smaller,  lower-­‐tier  producers.13    

Falling  module  selling  prices  squeeze  profits  across  the  value  chain  Falling   ASPs,   caused   by   capacity   expansions,   as   well   as   technology   and   manufacturing  

improvements   and   competition   from   low-­‐cost   producers,   places   pressure   on   gross   profits   across   the  value   chain.   Module   producers,   in   particular,   have   experienced   substantial   declines.   Some   analysts  estimate  gross  profit  declines  of  84%  between  2008  and  the  end  of  2011  for  module  producers  relative  to   declines   of   64%   in   aggregate   profits   across   the   value   chain   during   the   same   period.14  While  wafer  producers   currently   boast   higher   profits   than   cell   and   module   producers,   this   segment   remains  vulnerable.   Upstream   polysilicon   producers,   however,   have   maintained   the   highest   gross   margins   of  roughly  50%.    

In  this  context  of  increasing  competition  and  uncertain  demand,  solar  PV  producers  must  look  for  new  strategies  to  ensure  profitability  and  preserve  gross  margins.  One  of  the  most  popular  strategies  is  vertical   integration,   which   has   become   the   mantra   of   many   producers,   particularly   in   China.   Many  analysts  also  expect  to  see  the  initiation  of  industry  consolidation  given  the  high  number  of  independent  companies   in   downstream  module   and   project   development   segments.   The   following   sections   of   this  White  Paper  explore  how  these  strategies  and  trends  are  playing  out,  and  what  impacts  they  may  have  on  key  producers  across  the  value  chain.    

   

                                                                                                                         

11  Seeking  Alpha,  “ReneSola  could  face  higher  than  expected  silicon  wafer  price  pressure  in  Q2,”  Jun.  12,  2011,  www.seekingalpha.com  12  Buemi,  David,  “Update:  Continuing  ASP  Decline  in  the  PV  Supply  Chain,”  The  PV  Advocate,  Apr.  29,  2011,  www.davebuemi.com  13  Williams,  Andrew,  “Growing  Fears  of  PV  Module  Oversupply  in  2011,”  Renewable  Energy  World,  Mar.  3,  2011,  www.renewableenergyworld.com  14  Deutsche  Bank,  “Solar  Industry  2011  Outlook,”  Jan.  5,  2011  

 

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Vertical  Integration  Trends  

Paths   to   vertical   integration   vary   widely   by   company   and   do   not   guarantee   high  margins  

All   of   the   world’s   largest   solar   PV  module   suppliers   in   2010   were   vertically   integrated   to   some  degree,   with   companies   such   as   Hanwha   SolarOne   (China)   and   REC   (Norway)   fully   integrated   from  polysilicon  production   to   project   development.   Vertical   integration  most   commonly   occurs   across   the  ingot  to  module  segments  of  the  value  chain  (which  includes  wafers  and  cells),  with  capital  and  energy-­‐intensive  polysilicon  production  and  service-­‐oriented  project  development   left  to  specialists.  However,  not   all   companies   follow   the   same   path   to   integration.   Some   producers,   such   as   Yingli   and   Hanwha  SolarOne,   began   in   the   module   segment   of   the   value   chain   and   gradually   expanded   into   polysilicon  production.   LDK   Solar,   on   the   other   hand,   started   out   in   wafer   production   and   then   simultaneously  integrated  upstream  into  polysilicon  and  downstream  into  cells  and  modules.15  

Although   many   companies   have   capabilities   across   the   value   chain,   production   capacity   is   not  necessarily  spread  evenly.  For  example,  in  2010,  JA  Solar  shipped  nearly  2  GW  of  cell  capacity  and  only  500  MW  of  module  capacity,  while  LDK  Solar  shipped  628  MW  of  wafers  and  only  27  MW  of  cells.16  This  uneven  integration  leaves  producers  open  to  value  chain  bottlenecks  and  potential  conflicts  of  interest  with  downstream  customers  who  may  also  be  competitors.17    

                                                                                                                           

15  CGTI  analysis  16  Ibid.  17  CGTI  interviews  

 

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Fluctuating  demand  driven  by  incentive  policies,  barriers  to  entry  in  upstream  portions  of  the  value  chain,  and  production  bottlenecks   in  a  rapidly  expanding  market  have   increased  the  appeal  of  vertical  integration.  However,  vertical  integration  at  this  stage  of  market  development  has  not  necessarily  led  to  higher  gross  margins  and  better  financial  performance.  According  to  CGTI’s  analysis,  there  appears  to  be  no  correlation  between  the  degree  of  vertical   integration  and  gross  profit  margin.  The  same  data  also  reveals   that   increased  production  capacity  and  presumed  economies  of   scale   is  no  guarantee  of  gross  margin   success.  While  many   factors   determine   a   company’s   gross  margin,   including   pricing   strategy,  manufacturing   efficiencies   and   technology,   the   lack   of   clear   correlation   suggests   companies   should  consider   these   other   areas   of   potential   competitive   advantage   before   pursuing   a   vertical   integration  model.    

Upstream  integration  can  help  control  costs  and  secure  supply,  but  faces  high  barriers  Upstream  integration  in  the  crystalline  silicon  value  chain  generally  refers  to  polysilicon  production.  

Polysilicon,  made  from  quartz  through  a  chemical  production  process,  is  the  primary  raw  material  used  in   solar  PV  modules.   For  many  module  producers,   securing  a  high-­‐quality,   stable   supply  of  polysilicon  remains  one  of  the  biggest  challenges.  Polysilicon  production  remains  concentrated  in  a  small  number  of  companies,  of  which  the  top  four  produce  more  than  50%  of  global  capacity.18  In  2008,  when  polysilicon  was  in  short  supply,  spot  prices  skyrocketed  to  more  than  US$  450  per  kilogram,  forcing  prices  up  across  the  value  chain  and  eating  into  downstream  profits.19  While  prices  have  fallen  dramatically  since  then  to  less   than  US$   75   per   kilogram,   companies   still   struggle   to   secure   high-­‐quality   polysilicon   supply.   This  phenomenon   is   particularly   evident   in   China,   where   domestic   production   cannot   keep   pace   with  demand.   In   2010,   China   imported   50%  of   its   polysilicon,   and  much  of   its   domestic   supply   came   from  small,  low-­‐quality  producers.20    

Downstream  Chinese  producers  have  three  main  ways  of  procuring  polysilicon:  buying  on  the  spot  market,   signing   long-­‐term  supply  contracts  and  producing   in-­‐house.  Given  supply  constraints   in  China,  many   companies   have   chosen   to   develop   in-­‐house   capacity,   including   Yingli,   LDK   and   ReneSola.  Advantages  to  this  approach  include:  

▪ Cost  reduction  potential  (since  polysilicon  makes  up  15%  of  the  total  cost  of  a  solar  module)  ▪ Higher  gross  margin  capture  (the  polysilicon  segment  of  the  value  chain  has  enjoyed  50%  gross  margins  compared  to  20-­‐30%  for  module  producers)  ▪ Reduced  exposure  to  polysilicon  price  and  supply  fluctuations  ▪ Assured  source  of  consistent  polysilicon  for  better  product  quality  

Despite   the  advantages   listed  above,   there   is  no  consensus  on   in-­‐house  polysilicon  production  as  the  best  strategy.  The  investment  and  time  required  to  develop  in-­‐house  supply  is  high,  and  production  

                                                                                                                         

18  Shah,  Abhishek,  “List  of  World’s  Top  (Solar,  Semi)  8  Polysilicon  Companies  –  Asia  Rising  as  Big  get  Bigger,”  Green  World  Investor,  Mar.  2,  2011,  www.greenworldinvestor.com  19  Wilkinson,  Sam,  “Silicon  update:  polysilicon  suppliers  call  the  shots,”  IMS  Research,  Apr.  12,  2011,  www.solarnovus.com  20  Research  Report  on  China  Polysilicon  Industry,  2011-­‐2012,  (Maryland,  US:  Market  Research,  2011)  

 

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is   only   efficient   at   a   very   large   scale.   As   Chinese   companies   like   GCL-­‐Poly   expand   rapidly   (which   is  projected  to  be  the  largest  producer  in  the  world  in  2012),  supply  constraints  may  ease,  in  turn  making  supply-­‐contracts  more  cost-­‐effective  and  discouraging  the  significant  financial  investments  required  for  upstream  integration.    

Downstream   integration   gives   companies   new   revenue   streams   and   access   to   new  markets  

While   many   solar   companies   in   the   U.S.   and   Europe   have   long   been   active   in   project  development—SunPower   and   Solar   World,   for   example—Chinese   solar   companies   have   focused   on  manufacturing  modules  and  other  components.  With  many  markets  across   the  world  growing  rapidly,  companies   look   to  project  development  and  operation  and  maintenance   (O&M)  services  as  promising  new  revenue  streams,  as  well  as  a  path  to  secure  demand  for  their  own  modules   in  new  markets.21  In  China,   downstream   integration   success   will   depend   on   business  models   dictated   by   the   evolution   of  market  support  policies,  and  will   largely  be  determined  by  the  role  that   large  state-­‐owned  enterprises  (SOEs)  will  play  in  project  development  and  ownership.    

Feed-­‐in   tariffs   and  other  measures   to   stimulate   growth  have   remained   elusive,   but   China’s   solar  market   is   set   to  grow  rapidly   in   the  coming  years  based  on  government   targets.   If  China’s  experience  with  wind  power  is  any  indication,  concession  rounds  will  be  used  to  stimulate  growth  in  the  near-­‐term.  The  government  will  use  these  concession  rounds  to  allow  for  controlled  development  of  the  market,  by  concurrently   providing   developers   with   practical   experience   and   allowing   the   price   of   solar   power  generation  to  drop  to  acceptable  levels  before  the  government  would  implement  broader  subsidies.  To  date,   the   small-­‐scale   Golden   Sun   and   Solar   Roofs   subsidy   programs,   in   addition   to   two   concession  rounds  (where  developers  bid  for  individual  projects)  for  utility-­‐scale  projects,  have  resulted  in  860  MW  of  solar  power  capacity.22    

Solar  PV  producers,  which  are  mostly  private  companies,  will  have  to  compete  or  cooperate  with  China’s   powerful   SOEs   for   project   development   and   operation   rights.   Some   examples   of   downstream  activity  by  module  producers  exist,  such  as  Suntech’s  10  MW  project  in  Tibet  and  China  Sunergy’s  7  MW  building-­‐integrated  PV  roof  in  Nanjing,  but  the  largest  projects,  thus  far,  have  been  developed  by  SOEs  who  have  won   all   of   the  major   projects   in   the   first   two   concession   rounds.  23  While   these   concession  rounds  are  not  expected  to  result  in  high  profits  for  participating  companies,  early  participation  in  these  concession  rounds  may  help  companies  continue  scaling  production  and  secure  a  piece  of  what  may  be  a  RMB  125  billion  solar  pie  by  2020.24  

                                                                                                                         

21  This  opportunity  assessment  focused  on  downstream  opportunities  in  China  and  the  U.S.,  but  similar  opportunities  exist  elsewhere  in  the  world.  22  CGTI  analysis  23  National  Energy  Administration,  “第二批光伏特许权招标结果公告,”  [Result  of  the  second  concession  round],  (accessed  on  May  10,  2011)  24  CGTI  analysis  

 

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The   U.S.   installation   market   also   looks   particularly   promising   as   it   shifts   to   more   utility-­‐scale  projects.25  Up   to   3   GW   of   new   capacity   may   be   installed   in   2011   in   solar-­‐friendly   states,   with   tax  incentives   and   government   loan   guarantees   piquing   the   interest   of   developers  worldwide.   This   is   the  case   in  California,  where   the   state’s  Solar   Initiative  will   subsidize  3  GW  of   rooftop   installations  before  2016.26  Chinese  producers  have  already  established  strong  distribution  channels  into  the  U.S.  and  supply  roughly   40%   of   all   modules   to   the   California   program.27  Chinese   companies   will   continue   to   supply  modules   to   the  U.S.   in   the  years   to  come,  but  expanding   into   the  solar  project  development  segment  will  be  complex.  

Because  the  U.S.  lacks  coordinated  federal  government  support  for  solar  power  –  the  current  30%  investment  tax  credit  grant  may  expire  at  the  end  of  2012  –  state-­‐based  initiatives  have  been  embraced  by   the   industry.   Yet,  navigating   state-­‐based   initiatives   can  be  a  daunting   task,  particularly   for  Chinese  companies  accustomed   to  a  more  centralized  approach.   Incentives   favoring  U.S.  producers,  as  well  as  increasing   overseas   shipping   costs   (shipping   from   China   adds   an   estimated   2.5%   to   the   cost   of   each  module28),  will  put  increasing  pressure  on  producers  to  consider  local  manufacturing  when  entering  the  U.S.  market.  Even  though  manufacturing  costs  are  higher  in  the  U.S.,  some  companies  have  chosen  this  approach.  Suntech,  for  example,  has  set  up  a  factory  in  Phoenix,  Arizona,  with  30  MW  of  capacity,  while  other   companies   are   taking   exploratory   steps   and   establishing   representative   U.S.   offices. 29  Few  examples  of  Chinese-­‐led  projects  exist,  but  this  may  change  as  Chinese  companies  gain  more  experience,  and  their  ability  to  offer  project  financing  through  support  from  the  China  Development  Bank  or  China  Ex-­‐Im  may  give  them  a  competitive  advantage.    

 

Industry  Consolidation  

Hundreds  of  Chinese  companies  occupy  the  module  segment,  but  only  a  few  produce  at  large-­‐scale  

Thanks   to   local   government   support   for   the   solar   industry,  hundreds  of  Chinese   companies  have  entered  the  market  and  several  production  clusters  have  emerged  in  Baoding  and  Changzhou.  Most  of  these  companies  are   in   the  module  manufacturing   segment,  due   to   the   relative  ease  of  market  entry  compared  to  the  more  capital-­‐  or  technology-­‐intensive  polysilicon  and  solar  cell  segments  of  the  value  chain.  Turn-­‐key  manufacturing  lines  can  be  purchased,  installed  and  rapidly  put  into  production  and,  as  

                                                                                                                         

25  Utility-­‐scale  projects  are  more  lucrative  for  project  developers.  26  SEIA,  “U.S.  Solar  Market  Insight:  2010  Year,”  2011,  www.seia.org  27  Woody,  Todd,  “California’s  solar  power  increasingly  Chinese  made,”  Grist,  Jan.,  18,  2011,  www.grist.org  28  CGTI  interviews  29  Landberg,  Reed,  “Suntech  boosts  employment,  production  at  Arizona  solar  factory,”  Bloomberg,  Jan.  31,  2011,  www.bloomberg.com  

 

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a  result,  there  are  over  600  module  producers  in  China  compared  to  167  cell  companies  and  fewer  than  50  polysilicon  producers.30    

 

While  hundreds  of  module  companies  exist  in  China  today,  most  production  is  concentrated  in  the  factories  of  only  a  few  top-­‐tier  producers.  The  top  five  module  companies  in  China  account  for  over  60%  of  production  capacity.31  These  large  companies,   like  Suntech  and  Trina  Solar,  differentiate  themselves  by   having   over   1   GW   of   production   capacity,   sourcing   select   materials   from   foreign   suppliers,   using  advanced   manufacturing   equipment,   and   focusing   resources   on   marketing   and   branding. 32  Some  companies  are  even  beginning  to  develop  their  own  manufacturing  equipment,  one  of  the  last  areas  of  the  solar  value  chain  still  dominated  by  foreign  companies.33  

The  pace  of  M&A  in  China  will  depend  on  local  incentives,  but  global  consolidation  will  accelerate  

While  China’s  market  appears  ready  for  consolidation,  few  mergers  and  acquisitions  (M&As)  have  taken   place   to   date.   The   pace   of   consolidation   and   M&As   in   the   Chinese   domestic   market   will   be  influenced   in   part   by   the   amount   of   financial   support   from   local   governments   for   local   industry.  Provincial   and   local   governments   have   offered   low-­‐interest   loans,   land   at   reduced   cost   and   capital  subsidies,  often  regardless  of  profitability.  The  lack  of  Chinese  M&A  activity  to  date  may  also  stem  from  difficulties   related   to   integrating   new   companies   with   incompatible   production   equipment   or                                                                                                                            

30  CGTI  analysis  31  Ibid.  32  CGTI  interviews  33  Ibid.  

 

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management   structures   and,   in   many   cases,   expanding   internal   capacity   is   seen   as   simpler   than  acquiring  it  from  other  companies.    

In  the  past  year,  rapid  growth  in  Chinese  production  capacity,  global  pricing  pressure  and  a  series  of   high-­‐level   international   downstream   deals   suggest   that   global   solar   industry   consolidation  may   be  close   at   hand:   MEMC   acquired   developer   SunEdison,   First   Solar   acquired   developer   NextLight  Renewable   Power,   and   the   petrochemical   company   Total   acquired   a   controlling   interest   in   the  manufacturer  SunPower.34    

In  March  2010,  China  Sunergy  acquired  CEEG  Solar  Science  &  Technology  and  CEEG  New  Energy  Co.  for  US$  47  million,  adding  220  MW  of  new  module  capacity.  The  acquisition  represented  a  downstream  move   for   China   Sunergy,   which   subsequently   gained   distribution   networks   in   the   U.S.,   Europe   and  Southeast   Asia.35  Also,   in   2010,   LDK   Solar   invested   US$   21.5   million   in   Best   Solar’s   600  MW  module  manufacturing   plant.   (LDK   Solar   formerly   supplied   solar   cells   to   Best   Solar’s   module   facility.)  Interestingly,   Best   Solar   will   continue   to   produce   thin   film   modules   and   remain   a   downstream  competitor  to  LDK  Solar.36    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

   

                                                                                                                         

34  Ausick,  Paul,  “The  Solar  Consolidation  Phase  May  Just  Be  Starting,”  24/7  Wall  St.,  Jul.  1,  2011,  www.247wallst.com  35  China  Sunergy,  “China  Sunergy  announces  acquisition  of  two  solar  module  manufacturers,”  Mar.  15,  2010,  http://zd.qiye8.com  36  PRNewswire,  “LDK  Solar  acquires  Best  Solar’s  crystalline  module  manufacturing  plant,”  www.prnewswire.com,  (accessed  on  May  1,  2011)  

 

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The  Path  Ahead  

Challenging  market  conditions  require  innovative  business  development  strategies    In   a   period   of   oversupply   and   uncertain   demand,   companies   should   investigate   a   range   of  

opportunities,   including   vertical   integration,   to   increase   profitability   and   reduce   costs.   Vertical  integration   is  an   increasingly  popular   trend  for  companies  but,  as   this  White  Paper  suggests,  does  not  necessarily  lead  to  increased  profitability.    

Stakeholders  can  improve  profit  across  the  solar  PV  value  chain  in  a  number  of  ways:  

§ Solar   PV   Producers   should   identify   the   most   effective   cost-­‐reduction   strategies   to   retain  margins,   and   analyze   potential   benefits   of   polysilicon   production   and   developing   in-­‐house  manufacturing   equipment.   In   China’s   downstream   market,   close   partnerships   with   SOEs   will  result  in  access  to  concession-­‐round  projects,  and  localization  or  acquisitions  in  markets  like  the  U.S.  will  help  producers  overcome  local  content  requirements.  

§ Materials   and   Components   Suppliers   should   anticipate   the   continued   vertical   integration   of  their   customers   and   assess   the   impact   of   industry   consolidation   on   their   current   and   future  customer-­‐base.  

§ Solar   PV  Developers   and  Project  Owners   should  plan   for   continued  declines   in   solar  PV  ASPs  while   understanding   the   potential   for   solar   PV   producers   to   move   downstream   and   become  competitors.  

§ Financial  Service  Firms  should  prepare  for  simultaneous  consolidation  in  solar  PV  industry  and  continued   production   capacity   expansions.   They   should   also   facilitate  M&A   between   industry  players  across  the  supply  chain,  both  domestically  and  cross-­‐border.  

§ Regulators,   particularly   in   China,   should   set   strong   policy   targets   with   clear   implementation  roadmaps   to   provide   more   certainty   to   producers   and   bring   greater   stability   to   the   industry  which   will   benefit   all   stakeholders.   Regulators   should   also   strengthen   quality   standards   and  certification  programs  to  prevent  reckless  development  and  poor  grid  integration.    

All   producers,   including   material   and   component   suppliers,   must   watch   for   pending   Chinese  domestic  policy  incentives  and  expansion  of  production  capacity  in  China  to  understand  the  impact  on  global   supply/demand   balances   and   the   pace   of   industry   consolidation.  With   continued   reduction   in  solar  PV  pricing,  new  installation  markets  independent  of  subsidies  will  potentially  emerge  yielding  new  investment  opportunities.  

 

 

 

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This  license  allows  for  the  copying,  distributing,  transmitting  and  adapting  of  the  work  for  non-­‐commercial  purposes,  provided  that  new  content  is  distributed  using  a  comparable  license,  and  this  work  is  attributed  as:  China  Greentech  Initiative  (Greentech  Networks  Limited),  “China’s  Solar  PV  Value  Chain”  Spring  2011.  Permissions  beyond  the  scope  of  this  license  may  be  available  at  www.china-­‐greentech.com.  

The  China  Greentech  Initiative™  and  The  China  Greentech  Report™  are  trademarks  of  Greentech  Networks  Limited,  a  Hong  Kong  limited   liability   company.   While   significant   input   was   received   in   the   creation   of   this   Report,   with   the   large   number   of  participating   organizations,   by   necessity   this   is   not   a   consensus   deliverable.   All   opinions   expressed   herein   are   based   on   the  judgment  of  CGTI  at  the  time  of  distribution,  and  are  subject  to  change  without  notice  due  to  economic,  political,  industry  and  firm-­‐specific  factors.  

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Acknowledgements  

Hundreds   of   individuals   provide   input   into   the   work   of   CGTI   and   the   content   of   this   White   Paper,  including   leaders   of   major   Chinese   enterprises,   foreign   companies,   entrepreneurs,   investors,  government,  NGOs  and  policy  advisors.  CGTI  Partners  and  Advisors  that  support  the  Renewable  Energy  Sector  are  presented  on  the  front  cover  of  this  White  Paper.  

CGTI  wishes  to  acknowledge  several  organizations  for  their  support  of  this  White  Paper,  including  Bayer,  BP,  Dow  Corning,  DuPont,  Hanwha  SolarOne,  J  Capital  Research,  Suntech,  Talesun,  Trina  Solar  and  Tsing  Capital.  CGTI  Senior  Research  Analysts  Claire  Nelson,  Olivier  Pincon  and  Jackie  Wang  led  the  writing  of  this  White  Paper  based  on  an  Opportunity  Assessment,   under   the  direction  of  Manager  Anders  Hove  and  Managing  Director  Alan  Beebe.  Cina  Loarie  provided  copyediting  support  and  managed  publication  of  the  White  Paper.  CGTI  Partner  Relations  team  members  Mark  Wehling  and  Chitra  Hepburn  supported  the  Opportunity  Assessment,  under  the  direction  of  Managing  Director  Ellen  Carberry.